General Economic Updates

hydrabadi_arab said:
The number 1 thing foreign investor look before investing is freedom of movement of capital. Pakistan has gone to IMF 10 times in last 20 years.

You made your country economy such a joke that you need to sign one sided defence pacts (Saudi) or some strategic alignment (China) to get big foreign investment in. Reko Diq $10bn doesn't count as world is desperate for copper/gold and that is only big remaining mines in the world now.

CPEC failed and Saudi investment is just on papers for now. Saudis are thinking what if they invest $20bn in 5 years and then Pakistan goes in to another BOP crisis and begging to IMF? Saudi investors will want to take out their $$ whenever it pleases them.
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Pakistan won't ever go into such a situation again, Its in the strategic interest of GHQ to improve her economy. (At least I think)
 

SBP purchased US dollars worth $7.15bn in 12 months ending July 2025: report​

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KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank slowed down the purchase of US dollars to five-month low at $189 million from the inter-bank market in July 2025, summing up the cumulative purchases worth $7.15 billion in 12 months (August 2024–July 2025), brokerage house Topline Securities reported on Tuesday, citing the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) data.

The central bank reports the US dollars’ purchase data with a lag of three month.


The slowdown in the month of July was witnessed apparently in the wake of low supply of the foreign currency and/or low demand for import payment and foreign debt repayment in the month, according to analysts.

Banks to offer collateral-free financing of up to Rs1mn to small farmers: SBP

Saad Hanif, Head of Research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, said the cumulative purchases worth $7.15 billion in 12 months helped the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to stabilise the rupee against the US dollar and boosted the country’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves (held by the SBP).

The buying also helped the central bank smoothly repay foreign debt on time without increasing the total tally of foreign loans and yet managing current account deficit at moderate level in the ongoing fiscal year 2025-26.

The central bank’s purchases of the greenback partly helped the SBP’s foreign exchange reserves boost by $5.15 billion in the 12 months (August 2024 to July 2025), rising to $14.30 billion at the end of July 2025 from $9.15 billion at the outset of August 2024, according to the central bank data.

The FX reserves stood at $14.45 billion on October 17, 2025, according to the latest weekly update by the SBP.

A significant growth in inflows of workers’ remittances helped boosting supply of the US dollar in inter-bank market, convincing the central bank to absorb surplus supply of the greenback.

SBP reported the workers’ remittances rose by 26.6% to $38.3 billion in FY25 compared to $30.3 billion in FY24.

Hanif said the central bank had slowed down buying of the greenback apparently in the wake of low demand for the foreign currency, as the bank was having moderate debt obligations in July - the first month of FY26.

“Pakistan was having a total debt repayments and interest payments summing up at around $26 billion for FY26. A large part of that was to be rolled over, making the cash-settled repayments affordable for the nation,” he said.

The central bank’s low purchase of the greenback in July coincided with the rupee facing increasing pressure against US dollar in the first two to three weeks of the month.

The data suggested the Pakistani currency had depreciated to Rs284.97/$ by July 17, 2025 compared to Rs283.76/$ on June 30, 2025 - losing almost Re1 in the three weeks. Later on, the currency recovered to Rs282.87/$ on July 31, 2025 – regaining Rs2.10/$ in the last 10 day of July.

The rupee hit six-month high at Rs280.97/$ on Tuesday compared to Rs281.01/$ on Monday - up by 0.01% on day-to-day basis, according to the SBP.

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Tomato Relief

LIMITED tomato imports from Iran and small supplies from Sindh and Swat have finally reduced the pressure on consumers. This relief follows weeks of heavy rains and floods, as well as the Afghan border closure, which left crops damaged in Punjab and elsewhere and caused supply disruptions. Yet the reprieve may be temporary, as the deeper flaws in our food supply system and agricultural planning remain unaddressed. Traders warn of another shortage in March and April, the lean production season, before new harvests reach the market.

Source: DAWN
 
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@Fatman17 sb

Come to think of it, given the global economic slowdown 2.7% for Pak isn't that bad.

Regards
 
Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 6.2% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in October 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday, a reading higher than the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5-6%.

The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 5.6% in September 2025. The CPI stood at 6.9% in October 2024.
 
Fatman17 said:
Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 6.2% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in October 2025, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday, a reading higher than the Ministry of Finance estimate of 5-6%.

The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 5.6% in September 2025. The CPI stood at 6.9% in October 2024.
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Still under-reported
 

Pakistan’s cement dispatches grow 6% YoY in October 2025, boosted by strong domestic demand​


Domestic sales rise sharply, while exports decline due to regional challenges; cement prices expected to recover in FY27
By
News Desk


Pakistan’s cement sector showed notable growth in October 2025, with cement dispatches rising by 6% year-on-year (YoY) to reach 4.75 million tons.


According to a report by brokerage firm AKD Securities, this increase was driven by a strong 15% YoY surge in domestic sales, which reached 3.9 million tons, reflecting a rebound in construction activity, particularly supported by post-flood reconstruction efforts.

The rise in local demand was further supported by a 2.4% YoY reduction in local cement prices. Average daily local sales in October 2025 were recorded at 127,000 tons, marking an 11% month-on-month (MoM) increase and the highest level in 32 months.

The industry-wide capacity utilization also rose to 67%, up 5.6 percentage points (ppts) YoY, compared to 62% in the same period last year.

While the domestic market saw positive growth, exports faced significant setbacks. Cement exports fell by 23% YoY to 830,000 tons, with shipments from the South region declining by 22% YoY (to 680,000 tons).

Exports from the North dropped by 28% YoY, largely due to the Afghan border closure in late October 2025. The decline in South exports was also reflected in regional utilization figures, with the South’s capacity utilization falling to 89% from 100% in the same period last year. In contrast, North region utilization surged to 62%, the highest in 21 months.


According to the report, the cement industry is expecting a marginal decline in domestic prices for FY26, with a 0.3% YoY reduction anticipated. This decline will primarily be due to lower prices in the North, where prices are projected to fall by 1.2% YoY, influenced by a reduction in royalty rates in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). In FY25, North prices surged past PKR 1,500 per bag due to higher royalty imposed by the Punjab government, but these prices are expected to normalize in FY26 as KPK’s lower royalty rates take effect.

Meanwhile, prices in the South are expected to rise by 4.1% YoY, driven by stronger export margins and increasing domestic demand. Overall, cement prices are forecasted to increase by 6.5% YoY in FY27, supported by improving demand conditions.

AKD Securities forecasted that the investment outlook for Pakistan’s cement sector remains positive, with analysts maintaining an ‘Overweight’ stance on the industry. A strong recovery is expected in FY26, driven by monetary easing, fiscal support, and improving macroeconomic conditions. Domestic offtakes are projected to grow by 7% YoY to 38.6 million tons, supported by a sharp decline in interest rates and increased allocations in the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP).


Top cement stock picks for the year include Lucky Cement (LUCK), DG Khan Cement (DGKC), and Fauji Cement (FCCL).

The cement sector is on track for sustained growth, with domestic demand bolstering overall dispatches, although export challenges and regional dynamics pose hurdles. With strategic price adjustments and a favorable macroeconomic environment, the sector is poised for continued recovery in FY26 and FY27.

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In OCT 2025 Imports of goods increase by 20% YoY and exports decrease 4%. Things looking grim for exporters.



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"Pakistan Economy - 1QFY26 in surplus, thanks to hefty profit of SBP; Interest expense as % of FBR tax is at 48% vs. 51% in 1QFY25"

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Bit of improvement but interest/debt servicing cost still 43% total tax.
 
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