India's Nuclear Arsenal Surpasses Pakistan's After 15-20 Years: SIPRI

[Optimal_Control]

Only the cannisterized part affects us as it reduces the deployment time and preparations needed for it.

Early warning in case of Pakistan is of little value, simply due to short (or relatively short) distances. SLBM is also more significant for the China threat, and then as a means of responding to a Pakistani strike.

However, we keep forgetting that if a scenario does arise where using Nukes is actually considered, it simply means there might already be quite a large scale destruction in war, so nukes being used will be like opting for MAD. And that means our nations as we know it cease it exist.

And thinking of that kinda makes me sad. Let's keep nukes as a deterrent and a bargaining chip.

Hi @DedBot ,
Early warning does affect the nuclear deterrence between India and Pak. I would request you to refer to the wonderful books written by Dr. Vipin Narang (MIT) and Gen BS Nagal. The key points raised by Dr. Narang is that India will not wait for Pakistan to deliver their first blow. This stems from the fact that India has lot more to lose vis-a-vis Pakistan. In certain situations, India might go first and in order to do so, will require precise targeting information of Pak's nuclear assets in real time. This is the basis of India's counter-force posture. Now the degree of real-timeness of such an information that is available to India and its reliability could be debated. However, India is definitely spending a lot of money to develop capabilities to track and monitor Pak's assets in real time and in next 10 years the quality of such an information available to India will be much better than what it is available now. Further, the cannisterization drive to cannisterize the strategic/tactical missiles is a step in that direction and I am not even counting the efforts in the field of hypersonics such as HSTDV and others. This will only reinforce India's counter-force posture.

For more details please look into the books written by Dr. Vipin Narang. I am sure @Oscar you have seen what Dr. Narang was alluding to in his seminars.

 

[DevendraRajput]

My only question is, who gives them this data, PAEC or KRL or Pakistan
government?
Answer: Non of them . Then it's just a speculation by an institute run by Western power who even don't believe about the Pakistan nuclear capability till the 28 may 1998.

Its actually much simpler than that. They estimate how much weapons grade fissile material a country will have access to. Plutonium is not hard to assess because reactors can produce only this much plutonium each year. So is weapons grade uranium.

India also has starship enterprise, but hiding it. Aliens gave them the technology 5000 years ago in vedic times .source Modi supporters

Naah, thats China which has stradling buses and starship enterprise....

 

[HostileInsurgent]

Your parliament building was directly attacked, and guess what, cowardly India did nothing.

I know Modhi gives you guys orange koolaid to drink but time to sober up. Pakistan’s nuclear command has plans in place to destroy 90% of India, Andaman islands and Tamil Nadu are probably the only safe places. Those nukes will be deployed when deemed necessary. There will be little left of India.

And that will happen only if pakistani nukes penetrate the exo-atmospheric Prithvi and endo-atmospheric Ashwin Ballistic missile defence systems followed by S400 systems and evades the ELM-2090, Super Swordfish and VLRTR radars. Again, these systems aren't fool proof and can be evaded, but what IF they don't... Because pakistan doesn't have a BMD ecosystem and India has an operational nuclear triad with cannisterised nuclear/thermonuclear warheads ready to fire.

 

[DedBot]

The key points raised by Dr. Narang is that India will not wait for Pakistan to deliver their first blow. This stems from the fact that India has lot more to lose vis-a-vis Pakistan. In certain situations, India might go first and in order to do so, will require precise targeting information of Pak's nuclear assets in real time. This is the basis of India's counter-force posture.

India officially still follows no first-use policy. Although as much controversial such official stance of nations be, it should be given due importance. As for real time monitoring, all nations irrespective of their policy wants to have live and updated picture of the adversary so I don't think it's anything surprising on India's part.

Further, the cannisterization drive to cannisterize the strategic/tactical missiles is a step in that direction and I am not even counting the efforts in the field of hypersonics such as HSTDV and others. This will only reinforce India's counter-force posture.

I disagree. The distance within India and Pakistan is already low so hypersonics in my opinion are more of a player vis a vis Chinese threat. One should also note that Pakistan has little to no BMD so it reinforces my opinion.

Cannisterization is simply due to simpler logistical and operational readiness. In 2024, you can't expect to follow same designs and launches as of early 70s etc. All nations improve their strategic forces.

For more details please look into the books written by Dr. Vipin Narang.

I shall when I get some free time.

India does have more to lose and that's what keeps India's ambitions at bay. This makes Pakistan more dangerous but then, we have seen that Pakistan has been actually more than responsible in responding and posturing vis a vis India.

I already gave reference to 2019 skirmishes where India had deployed missiles over a captured PoW.
Later, over the accidental launch of Brahmos, Pakistan did not respond militarily and preferred diplomacy.

Despite the threats and concerns raised by India and Intl community regarding safeguards and use of it's missiles, it is actually India that need to improve including it's command and control mechanism which is reasonably dissatisfactory.

Over 200kg uranium theft in India poses threats of nuclear terrorism

ISLAMABAD: The theft of over 200 kilograms of nuclear material during last two decades in India poses serious threats of nuclear terrorism, necessitating the global powers’ role to raise...

www.thenews.com.pk

While there has been no such cases in Pakistan, primarily because the threats to our program required much stringent measures including protection from foreign and internal enemies.

India has more than good enough capability to nuke Pakistan but because it also to develop capability keeping China in mind, it has much more to do.

While, Pakistan's nukes are made and directed only at India and has covered all places in terms of offensive capability. What Pakistan simply needs now is improve, replace legacy platforms, and maintain (which is actually in my opinion one of the most important things).

Pakistan never partook in an arm-race in nuclear build-up. After reaching a certain threshold, we will not add more numbers as we do not need more.

We are most lacking in second-strike capability through naval forces which is a work in progress and might take a couple of years for us to be at ease.

 

[A1Kaid]

So according to SIPRI, Pakistan didn't add a single nuclear warhead to it's arsenal in over a year. This is just laughable. They should just admit they simply do not have information to determine how many warheads Pakistan has.

I think this pointless thread should be closed.

 

[Oscar]

Hi @DedBot ,
Early warning does affect the nuclear deterrence between India and Pak. I would request you to refer to the wonderful books written by Dr. Vipin Narang (MIT) and Gen BS Nagal. The key points raised by Dr. Narang is that India will not wait for Pakistan to deliver their first blow. This stems from the fact that India has lot more to lose vis-a-vis Pakistan. In certain situations, India might go first and in order to do so, will require precise targeting information of Pak's nuclear assets in real time. This is the basis of India's counter-force posture. Now the degree of real-timeness of such an information that is available to India and its reliability could be debated. However, India is definitely spending a lot of money to develop capabilities to track and monitor Pak's assets in real time and in next 10 years the quality of such an information available to India will be much better than what it is available now. Further, the cannisterization drive to cannisterize the strategic/tactical missiles is a step in that direction and I am not even counting the efforts in the field of hypersonics such as HSTDV and others. This will only reinforce India's counter-force posture.

For more details please look into the books written by Dr. Vipin Narang. I am sure @Oscar you have seen what Dr. Narang was alluding to in his seminars.

Yes - and you highlighted the most important piece in all of this calculation which I spoke to.

India has a LOT more to loose. Pakistan is a barely viable state - so the impact will be what??

On the other hand, even a few well placed hits can cause a lot more perceptible and longer term damage beyond physical to India’s goals and interests.

However, the Canesterization while reducing the response also lowers Pakistan’s thresholds. Because the one thing holding “sanity” between the two nations was a long standing policy of not mating the warheads to the launch platforms.

If that is also taken out of Pakistan then essentially that advantage to India reduces.

FYI - Canesterization of Pakistani systems has been long “tested” in but for reasons beyond capability and more so to do with leadership pressures and things that go beyond our eyes and into the dark corridors of power - these plans were delayed or shelved outright.

As I mentioned earlier - compromising of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities is done not with practitioners but with leadership.

At the end, there are calculations done by larger powers on what they want the balance between India and Pakistan to be.. even powers seemingly allied with India for now.

 

[Khansaheeb]

Pakistan has about 100 Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and towns and India has about 400.

So we need 12 times more nukes

 

[Guru Dutt]

So we need 12 times more nukes

India also has more than five layered AAP PAD BMD and now S400 backed by various soviet era upgraded SAM systems like STERLA or S300PMU bessides them Upcoming KUSHA long range SAM system while ecisting Barak LR , MR and SPYDER and AAKASH backed by a multi layered web of israeli AESA radars like Greenpine and Swordfish to numersous french and indian radars in the network given top cover by more than five Radar based spy sats and dozen other spy sats all of them to know the exact time and location of your weapons and there dilivery systems

but what do you have to stop indian missiles like bhramose , pralay , parahar or the new breed of air launched or land launched cruise missiles

cause a cruise missile launched from pakistan will be picked up by indian radars as soon as its launched and neutrlised even before its on indian side of the border or very high up in atmosphere way before it reaches it target cause it needs to travel at least 60 to 100 Km first from with pakistan to indian border then more than thrice that distance to its target which will take at least five to ten minutes that more than we require to neiutralise them while owr missile like bhrmose will be there on target within less than a minute if its launched even 30 Km inside india


so now what will you buy to stop indian missiles cause we dont have that so called NO FIRST USE POLICY ... we can use nuces in agression if the need be

 

[Khansaheeb]

India also has more than five layered AAP PAD BMD and now S400 backed by various soviet era upgraded SAM systems like STERLA or S300PMU bessides them Upcoming KUSHA long range SAM system while ecisting Barak LR , MR and SPYDER and AAKASH backed by a multi layered web of israeli AESA radars like Greenpine and Swordfish to numersous french and indian radars in the network given top cover by more than five Radar based spy sats and dozen other spy sats all of them to know the exact time and location of your weapons and there dilivery systems

but what do you have to stop indian missiles like bhramose , pralay , parahar or the new breed of air launched or land launched cruise missiles

cause a cruise missile launched from pakistan will be picked up by indian radars as soon as its launched and neutrlised even before its on indian side of the border or very high up in atmosphere way before it reaches it target cause it needs to travel at least 60 to 100 Km first from with pakistan to indian border then more than thrice that distance to its target which will take at least five to ten minutes that more than we require to neiutralise them while owr missile like bhrmose will be there on target within less than a minute if its launched even 30 Km inside india


so now what will you buy to stop indian missiles cause we dont have that so called NO FIRST USE POLICY ... we can use nuces in agression if the need be

So what, Israel had more and it was humiliated by Iran adn don't forget Pakistan is 10X more powerful than Iran:- "India also has more than five layered AAP PAD BMD"

 

[SecularNationalist]

We wouldn't hesitate to unleash our more powerful nukes to obliterate that country once and for all.

Yea like the other side doesn't have more powerful nukes for your antim sanskaar
Wake up pajjeet bhaiyya this is not a bollywood movie.

 

[Guru Dutt]

So what, Israel had more and it was humiliated by Iran adn don't forget Pakistan is 10X more powerful than Iran:- "India also has more than five layered AAP PAD BMD"

when did iran humiliate israel ... well thats news to me ... i was under impression iran and pakistan were both going to invade Israel


waise DUNKY lagga ke Turkiye kaise pahunch jatte ho waise yahoodiyon se larnne ke liye aur palsatine ko azaad karanne ke liye kabb jaa rahhe hain ZINDA QUOM MARTIAL RACE Pakistani jiyalle

as for 10X powerfull than Iran .. well iran to 45 saal se USA ke samne pooree ghairat ke saath kharra hai but for 10X Pakistan

 

[Khansaheeb]

when did iran humiliate israel ... well thats news to me ... i was under impression iran and pakistan were both going to invade Israel
View attachment 49504

waise DUNKY lagga ke Turkiye kaise pahunch jatte ho waise yahoodiyon se larnne ke liye aur palsatine ko azaad karanne ke liye kabb jaa rahhe hain ZINDA QUOM MARTIAL RACE Pakistani jiyalle
View attachment 49506

Still drowning in Bollywood fantasies, grow out of it Indian.

 

[Guru Dutt]

Yea like the other side doesn't have more powerful nukes for your antim sanskaar
Wake up pajjeet bhaiyya this is not a bollywood movie.

sirji you had so called ATOM BOMBs in 1998 also but still dint use them during kargil or after balakot strikes when all your cabinet was threatning... yaad hai shiekh rashid ke wo pav pav ke bumb or massla .... ki hoya udda

 

[White and Green with M/S]

India also has more than five layered AAP PAD BMD and now S400 backed by various soviet era upgraded SAM systems like STERLA or S300PMU bessides them Upcoming KUSHA long range SAM system while ecisting Barak LR , MR and SPYDER and AAKASH backed by a multi layered web of israeli AESA radars like Greenpine and Swordfish to numersous french and indian radars in the network given top cover by more than five Radar based spy sats and dozen other spy sats all of them to know the exact time and location of your weapons and there dilivery systems

but what do you have to stop indian missiles like bhramose , pralay , parahar or the new breed of air launched or land launched cruise missiles

cause a cruise missile launched from pakistan will be picked up by indian radars as soon as its launched and neutrlised even before its on indian side of the border or very high up in atmosphere way before it reaches it target cause it needs to travel at least 60 to 100 Km first from with pakistan to indian border then more than thrice that distance to its target which will take at least five to ten minutes that more than we require to neiutralise them while owr missile like bhrmose will be there on target within less than a minute if its launched even 30 Km inside india


so now what will you buy to stop indian missiles cause we dont have that so called NO FIRST USE POLICY ... we can use nuces in agression if the need be

We seen the best ABM systems performance recently

 

[White and Green with M/S]

There is no so called MILTARY JUNTA in India but for sure in Pakistan and Pakistan is owned by PA which has its fingers from power generation to distribution to making backery products to running shadi halls and selling grocries with almost a 10 billion corporateand all this it is doing by selling false evil india paranoia to pakistani awaam which hates hindu india more than it loves pakistan ... anyway

we are BIGGEST DEMOCRACY with almost 96.8 crore registerred voters of which almost 58% came out to vote thats almost twice the population of pakistan



there is a reason why Indian PM is greeted like a King by Saudies to UAE to UK , USA or french or italinas in US Congress joint sessions to G8 or G7 summit while no one even greets you so called PM or COAS when they visit there nation or when they get selected or for that matter elected

2024 Indian general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Can I show what's your military leaders blabbering against Pakistan, forget the speeches of BJP/RSS / shiv sena and other extremist hindu terrorists organizations that always spiting venom against Pakistan, why your govt control these goons?