Yes, broadly correct... Even with diversion into Beas-Sutlej, you don't eliminate downstream flows, monsoon peaks, spillovers, and system limits ensure substantial water still reaches Pakistan.... And even within India, the Sutlej system is already under storage capacity stress.... Diversion changes timing and share, not total elimination...
In the lean phase (Nov-Apr), the upper Chenab simply doesn't carry anything close to "multi-MAF surplus" in usable form.... Total flow over those six months at the proposed tunnel point is already limited (under 1 MAF), and only a fraction of that (15 to 20 percent max) can realistically be diverted due to ecological releases, sediment loads, and operational constraints....