Iran Foreign Policy and Doctrine

[Flotilla]

smarter approach

At least more rational. But we all know that israelis will push him to harass Iran, if not trying to grab americans to the war.

 

[Immortals]

Trump is too much of a wild card, the republican establishment will once again fill his cabinet with necon monsters like Bolton and Pompeo.

He fired Bolton for being obsessed with bombing Iran. He said it himself. Said John liked war too much.

 

[Persian Gulf]

He fired Bolton for being obsessed with bombing Iran. He said it himself. Said John liked war too much.

he didn't fire Pompeo though and General McKenzie's book suggests Trump chose the most aggressive option presented (assassinating Soleimani) when many in the military didn't expect him to. Pompeo was just at this year's "Free Iran" event promising regime change in Iran while Trump a few days ago publicly said we do not want regime change in Iran. Pompeo and Nikki Haley (the most whitewashed Indian on earth) are the most dangerous ministers for Iran IMO. Kushner too maybe since he is very close to Israel although we haven't seen him focus on Iran much.

Trump doesn't want full war but he will do drastic actions to prove American strength and punish enemies. the most confusing part about Trump is that he continues to say (and think) that he was on the cusp of a deal with Iran. the idea Khamenei would sanction a deal with Trump after he ordered the murder of Soleimani is laughable

 

[Immortals]

the idea Khamenei would sanction a deal with Trump after he ordered the murder of Soleimani is laughable

The most baffling thing was Khamenei negotiating with Obama and not a Republican President.

Somehow Iran forgot it’s own revolution, when it refused to negotiate with Carter and negotiated multiple deals with Reagan. And Reagan was keen to bring Iran back into its security umbrella.

Yet decades later Iran shunned Republican presidents. Makes zero sense trusting the liberal factions of America with an agreement when the conservative factions hold too much sway over American people.

 

[Immortals]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807872660388696316

 

[Persian Gulf]

The most baffling thing was Khamenei negotiating with Obama and not a Republican President.

Somehow Iran forgot it’s own revolution, when it refused to negotiate with Carter and negotiated multiple deals with Reagan. And Reagan was keen to bring Iran back into its security umbrella.

Yet decades later Iran shunned Republican presidents. Makes zero sense trusting the liberal factions of America with an agreement when the conservative factions hold too much sway over American people.

I don't really agree. Republicans have shunned diplomacy with Iran, not vice versa. Iran is a toxic issue in American politics and that has been led by Republicans who are bent on regime change and pleasing their Zionist donors, they don't actually care about diplomacy to reduce the scope of Iranian enrichment.

In 2015 the deal made sense, and most people expected a subsequent Republican administration to uphold the deal. Nobody expected a wildcard like Trump to come into power and tear up every treaty and deal he could lay his hands on (even then, it took Trump a few years to actually withdraw the US from the deal).

To reach a deal with the Republicans is not going to be possible. And even if Iran reaches a deal with Trump (impossible after he ordered the killing of Soleimani) there is no guarantee a future Republican administration won't also renege on that.

The best thing for Iran to be doing now is to build up its nuclear leverage as much and as fast as possible. If we are going to negotiate, at least negotiate from a position of strength.

 

[jauk]

The most baffling thing was Khamenei negotiating with Obama and not a Republican President.

Somehow Iran forgot it’s own revolution, when it refused to negotiate with Carter and negotiated multiple deals with Reagan. And Reagan was keen to bring Iran back into its security umbrella.

Yet decades later Iran shunned Republican presidents. Makes zero sense trusting the liberal factions of America with an agreement when the conservative factions hold too much sway over American people.

There never will be a deal that will benefit Iran and its policies regardless of the resident party.

 

[jauk]

I don't really agree. Republicans have shunned diplomacy with Iran, not vice versa. Iran is a toxic issue in American politics and that has been led by Republicans who are bent on regime change and pleasing their Zionist donors, they don't actually care about diplomacy to reduce the scope of Iranian enrichment.

In 2015 the deal made sense, and most people expected a subsequent Republican administration to uphold the deal. Nobody expected a wildcard like Trump to come into power and tear up every treaty and deal he could lay his hands on (even then, it took Trump a few years to actually withdraw the US from the deal).

To reach a deal with the Republicans is not going to be possible. And even if Iran reaches a deal with Trump (impossible after he ordered the killing of Soleimani) there is no guarantee a future Republican administration won't also renege on that.

The best thing for Iran to be doing now is to build up its nuclear leverage as much and as fast as possible. If we are going to negotiate, at least negotiate from a position of strength.

CORRECT! No Iranian party can unilaterally ease relations. It takes two to dance. Iranians that believe that it can be done 'sareshoon booyeh ghormehsabzi meedeh'.

As for the 'nuclear leverage', that train left the station a long time ago. It's impossible to 'roll back' which is another reason why the US is reticent giving any points to Iran. So that door is also closed permanently--there is no longer any 'leverage' other than test a detonate device or not.

 

[Persian Gulf]

CORRECT! No Iranian party can unilaterally ease relations. It takes two to dance. Iranians that believe that it can be done 'sareshoon booyeh ghormehsabzi meedeh'.

As for the 'nuclear leverage', that train left the station a long time ago. It's impossible to 'roll back' which is another reason why the US is reticent giving any points to Iran. So that door is also closed permanently--there is no longer any 'leverage' other than test a detonate device or not.

The status quo heavily favours the US and means they have no incentive to engage in diplomacy with Iran to even restore the JCPOA (as we saw with the US imposing new conditions as redlines even if it meant not restoring the JCPOA with Raisi).

The idea of maximising nuclear leverage short of a nuclear test is to change the US calculus so that it favours restoring the JCPOA or a similar deal, instead of maintaining the status quo where Iran has a relatively small enrichment capability with mostly old centrifuges and remains under a de facto UN economic blockade.

 

[Immortals]

I don't really agree. Republicans have shunned diplomacy with Iran, not vice versa. Iran is a toxic issue in American politics and that has been led by Republicans who are bent on regime change and pleasing their Zionist donors, they don't actually care about diplomacy to reduce the scope of Iranian enrichment.

In 2015 the deal made sense, and most people expected a subsequent Republican administration to uphold the deal. Nobody expected a wildcard like Trump to come into power and tear up every treaty and deal he could lay his hands on (even then, it took Trump a few years to actually withdraw the US from the deal).

To reach a deal with the Republicans is not going to be possible. And even if Iran reaches a deal with Trump (impossible after he ordered the killing of Soleimani) there is no guarantee a future Republican administration won't also renege on that.

The best thing for Iran to be doing now is to build up its nuclear leverage as much and as fast as possible. If we are going to negotiate, at least negotiate from a position of strength.

CORRECT! No Iranian party can unilaterally ease relations. It takes two to dance. Iranians that believe that it can be done 'sareshoon booyeh ghormehsabzi meedeh'.

As for the 'nuclear leverage', that train left the station a long time ago. It's impossible to 'roll back' which is another reason why the US is reticent giving any points to Iran. So that door is also closed permanently--there is no longer any 'leverage' other than test a detonate device or not.

Iran negotiating a deal (not even a treaty btw) with the democrats was DUMB! It was going to be torn up because it was not a Republican achievement

The only REASON Trump wanted to tear up the deal was because Obama and Biden negotiated it. If a fellow Republican had negotiated it they wouldn’t tear it up. And the Republican Party won’t rip up a trump era deal nor will democrats. That’s how much power republicans have in the power structure.

They haven’t ripped up Trump era tax cuts nor did they remove the tariffs he placed on China after criticizing him his entire term for using tariffs and saying it was ANTI global economics. Funny how that works?

If iran is even seeking to negotiate with the US (we don’t know for sure) then any deal MUST be wirh republicans. If you cannot get Republicans on board with a “fair deal” then FORGET SIGNING ANYTHING.

I hope Iran understands this simple concept next time around. Now I don’t know if Iran plans on negotiating again or if it’s a slow and steady sprint to becoming a nuclear weapons power after Khamenai passes away.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran negotiating a deal (not even a treaty btw) with the democrats was DUMB! It was going to be torn up because it was not a Republican achievement

pretty sure Treaty needs a majority in Congress to pass whereas this agreement just needed to not get more than 60 votes against it to survive, and even that was a stretch. imagine the pressure AIPAC will put on American politicians to vote against a TREATY with Iran.

The only REASON Trump wanted to tear up the deal was because Obama and Biden negotiated it. If a fellow Republican had negotiated it they wouldn’t tear it up. And the Republican Party won’t rip up a trump era deal nor will democrats. That’s how much power republicans have in the power structure.

Trump hated the Iran deal because he thinks he can do better and because his biggest donors are mega Zionists like Sheldon Adelson whose number 1 issue is Israel/Iran.

They haven’t ripped up Trump era tax cuts nor did they remove the tariffs he placed on China after criticizing him his entire term for using tariffs and saying it was ANTI global economics. Funny how that works?

I am not worried about Democrats tearing up Trump deals, but Republicans

If iran is even seeking to negotiate with the US (we don’t know for sure) then any deal MUST be wirh republicans. If you cannot get Republicans on board with a “fair deal” then FORGET SIGNING ANYTHING.

I hope Iran understands this simple concept next time around. Now I don’t know if Iran plans on negotiating again or if it’s a slow and steady sprint to becoming a nuclear weapons power after Khamenai passes away.

As I said above, Republicans have shunned diplomacy with Iran, not vice versa. Iran is a toxic issue in American politics and that has been led by Republicans who are bent on regime change and pleasing their Zionist donors, they don't actually care about diplomacy to reduce the scope of Iranian enrichment.

The idea that Iran will be able to negotiate a TREATY with the Republican Party is borderline insanity. There is simply zero incentive for those guys to agree to it. Their political existence is predicated on opposition to Iran.

 

[jauk]

Iran negotiating a deal (not even a treaty btw) with the democrats was DUMB! It was going to be torn up because it was not a Republican achievement

The only REASON Trump wanted to tear up the deal was because Obama and Biden negotiated it. If a fellow Republican had negotiated it they wouldn’t tear it up. And the Republican Party won’t rip up a trump era deal nor will democrats. That’s how much power republicans have in the power structure.

They haven’t ripped up Trump era tax cuts nor did they remove the tariffs he placed on China after criticizing him his entire term for using tariffs and saying it was ANTI global economics. Funny how that works?

If iran is even seeking to negotiate with the US (we don’t know for sure) then any deal MUST be wirh republicans. If you cannot get Republicans on board with a “fair deal” then FORGET SIGNING ANYTHING.

I hope Iran understands this simple concept next time around. Now I don’t know if Iran plans on negotiating again or if it’s a slow and steady sprint to becoming a nuclear weapons power after Khamenai passes away.

Incorrect. No deal is possible regardless of party. Worse if (impossibly) a deal we’re made it could and would be torn up by a subsequent party. US will not pay penalties for this. Period.

No negotiations ending in a profitable deal are possible. Thinking otherwise is the height of stupidity.

No negotiations. Move on.

 

[jauk]

pretty sure Treaty needs a majority in Congress to pass whereas this agreement just needed to not get more than 60 votes against it to survive, and even that was a stretch. imagine the pressure AIPAC will put on American politicians to vote against a TREATY with Iran.


Trump hated the Iran deal because he thinks he can do better and because his biggest donors are mega Zionists like Sheldon Adelson whose number 1 issue is Israel/Iran.


I am not worried about Democrats tearing up Trump deals, but Republicans


As I said above, Republicans have shunned diplomacy with Iran, not vice versa. Iran is a toxic issue in American politics and that has been led by Republicans who are bent on regime change and pleasing their Zionist donors, they don't actually care about diplomacy to reduce the scope of Iranian enrichment.

The idea that Iran will be able to negotiate a TREATY with the Republican Party is borderline insanity. There is simply zero incentive for those guys to agree to it. Their political existence is predicated on opposition to Iran.

Forget Treaties. These are US rules upheld and easily broken by the US. The US cannot be trusted by the very nature of its political system. Ever.

 

[Immortals]

No negotiations. Move on.

And what’s your alternative? I don’t hear anyone come up with an alternative. It’s been almost a decade since JCPOA and 4-5 years since trump ripped up the deal. Iran has done nothing to improve its economic situation or at least there is little to show for it.

Iran has been going no where. Since 2015, US has been violating the deal in one form or another. Trump merely put the nail in the coffin. Meantime toman has gone from 3,500 to 60,000 vs the dollar. At current pace it will hit 100,000 on the dollar. Is this sustinable?

Meanwhile the leadership’s economic management has been incompetent at best and treasonous at worst with all sides contributing to the problem.

Chinese economic partnership is non factor outside of oil trade and Russian partnership is peanuts and not a major factor. Iran and Russia now compete for the same oil markets due to Ukraine war sanctions on Russia. Iran still isn’t even exporting oil at 2008 levels (pre sanctions) And may never reach there again.

Oil fields are getting old with not enough investment from government or private sector capital. Gas flaring is still happening at termendous levels.. No LNG production yet in 2024. It wouldn’t matter since we have top 2 natural gas reserves in the world, but aren’t even a top 15 exporter because our own population consumes it all. What little we don’t consume we send to Iraq and Turkey.

If Iran wasn’t gifted with oil and natural gas it would be energy starved and bankrupt like Pakistan or Lebanon because there would be no way for this country to import the amount of oil and NG it consumes on a monthly basis with a weak currency like the rial.

Neither Pezhekian or Jalili can fix these problems. This requires a major overhaul which requires the entire republic to buy into it. But right now there are too many groups within the republic profiting immensely from the dire economic conditions by controlling a piece of the economic pie or a lucrative market.

 

[jauk]

And what’s your alternative? I don’t hear anyone come up with an alternative. It’s been almost a decade since JCPOA and 4-5 years since trump ripped up the deal. Iran has done nothing to improve its economic situation or at least there is little to show for it.

Iran has been going no where. Since 2015, US has been violating the deal in one form or another. Trump merely put the nail in the coffin. Meantime toman has gone from 3,500 to 60,000 vs the dollar. At current pace it will hit 100,000 on the dollar. Is this sustinable?

Meanwhile the leadership’s economic management has been incompetent at best and treasonous at worst with all sides contributing to the problem.

Chinese economic partnership is non factor outside of oil trade and Russian partnership is peanuts and not a major factor. Iran and Russia now compete for the same oil markets due to Ukraine war sanctions on Russia. Iran still isn’t even exporting oil at 2008 levels (pre sanctions) And may never reach there again.

Oil fields are getting old with not enough investment from government or private sector capital. Gas flaring is still happening at termendous levels.. No LNG production yet in 2024. It wouldn’t matter since we have top 2 natural gas reserves in the world, but aren’t even a top 15 exporter because our own population consumes it all. What little we don’t consume we send to Iraq and Turkey.

If Iran wasn’t gifted with oil and natural gas it would be energy starved and bankrupt like Pakistan or Lebanon because there would be no way for this country to import the amount of oil and NG it consumes on a monthly basis with a weak currency like the rial.

Neither Pezhekian or Jalili can fix these problems. This requires a major overhaul which requires the entire republic to buy into it. But right now there are too many groups within the republic profiting immensely from the dire economic conditions by controlling a piece of the economic pie or a lucrative market.

?. Plenty of alternatives have been presented and are being implemented. Nobody is in the business of pointing out to you where the sky is blue.