Strait of Hormuz is only closed in your head.
Looking at various tracking will tell you at least 10MBPD is leaving the strait up from 5MBPD when MoU collapsed. Tankers are no longer scared of Iran. Iran has had difficulty striking them or is refraining for whatever reason.
Shortfall could be as little as 2-3MBPD (not counting Iranian oil that went exclusively to China). But let’s say double that (5MBPD) is the shortfall. That is not enough to collapse the U.S. or petrodollar or global economy.
So Iran has a decision to make because as I been saying for last 8 weeks, its leverage is eroding. Oil being at $105 isn’t going to cut it.