Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[shapurzolaktaf]

Yeah, the small tourist islands are good, but the thing in general is a huge scam of astronomical proportions. They already have scaled down the project. Instead of 180 km, the line will be shorter than 5km. It's still going to cost them over 1 trillion dollars! It's laughable.

Anyway, it seems that the negotiations have failed. The US offer seemed quite irrational. The US doesn't want a deal apparently and the time is moving forward in our favor so far. We must prepare for the worst case scenario now and move our enriched uranium to unknown locations. If the regime doesn't go publicly nuclear, then things will get extremely ugly for us.

The nucleair business/trade is worth hunderds of billions, imagine Iran having a 10% share in this growing sector.
The main reason that they want to exclude Iran is this, they don't want new rivals in strategic industries. Iran will and should NEVER being excluded from this club.

 

[ShapurII]

The nucleair business/trade is worth hunderds of billions, imagine Iran having a 10% share in this growing sector.
The main reason that they want to exclude Iran is this, they don't want new rivals in strategic industries. Iran will and should NEVER being excluded from this club.

It is worth that much, but Iran can never have a share of that market for several reasons:

1. Iran needs to increase its enrichment capacity to over 1 million SWU/year to export enriched uranium. We need 600,000 SWU UF6/year for our nuclear reactors until 2030, if we do not build new reactors. Big actors in the market are way above that enrichment capacity, usually over 5 million SWU/year, or even 10 million SWU/year. Since Iran uses SWU UF6/year, you should multiple those numbers by 1.6 as well. Obviously, not only we do not have enough centrifuges to reach those numbers, and Fordow and Natanz currently cannot host more than 100,000 centrifuges, the world will not allow Iran to reach such a huge enrichment capacity.

2. Even if we reach those numbers, and we somehow circumvent sanctions that they will all place on us, we will need to provide electricity to our centrifuges. We are talking about tens of gigawatts-hour of electricity for 1-5 million SWU. As long as we have electricity shortage in Iran, we cannot be a major export of LEU.

3. We do not have enough natural uranium in Iran to export 100 tones of LEU per year. Most light-water reactors consume over 20 tones of LEU per year. We do not have that much uranium in Iran to export large quantities of LEU to foreign countries. In fact, our uranium reserves are barely enough to support our own needs for the next 30-40 years.

4. The issue of branding and the fact that most countries with nuclear technology, now or in future, will be US/West allies and will not approach us when they have better options with better branding.

I think the main issue with the US proposal is that they have offered nothing in return for such huge demands. They haven't offered a complete, immediate lift of sanctions, passed as a law in the US. They are talking about step-by-step lift of sanctions, which is not only stupid, but has already been tried and failed. They haven't offered normalization of ties. Their offer is quite one-sided and delusional. I think the negotiations are over and we should prepare for the other scenario.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Remember Houthies also. He just took 2 months of bloody air campaign but then he let it go.

and he let Waltz go too

if Yemen was practice for Iran then it didn't go well

 

[Persian Gulf]

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I am starting to think that Araghchi is stupid. After 4-5 rounds of negotiations he is still surprised that the US is insisting on no enrichment in Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

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I am starting to think that Araghchi is stupid. After 4-5 rounds of negotiations he is still surprised that the US is insisting on no enrichment in Iran.

I think the problem is not Araghchi.
Witkoff and his team were quite willing to sign a nuclear deal with Iran at first, in fact both sides were surprised at how willing both sides appeared to be in the first round, then things started to take a turn after the third round of negotiations.

They're going to activate the snapback mechanism in July. We should be prepared for the worst case scenario, including article 42 of Chapter VII of the UN charter.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think the problem is not Araghchi.
Witkoff and his team were quite willing to sign a nuclear deal with Iran at first, in fact both sides were surprised at how willing both sides appeared to be in the first round, then things started to take a turn after the third round of negotiations.

They're going to activate the snapback mechanism in July. We should be prepared for the worst case scenario, including article 42 of Chapter VII of the UN charter.

But Witkoff and Rubio were on TV saying very openly and clearly that their redline was no enrichment. And Araghchi was just pretending none of that happened and continuing negotiations anyway. He is running out of rope to pretend.

Invocation of snapback by Europeans while still negotiating with the US might limit our response. Snapback is a disaster diplomatically and economically and means we are back under UNSC sanctions. Further action can be blocked by China and Russia but not ideal to be at their mercy.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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The nuclear deal proposal the U.S. gave Iran on Saturday would allow limited low-level uranium enrichment on Iranian soil for a to-be-determined period of time, Axios has learned, contradicting public statements from top officials.

--

now Barak says the US has withdrawn from its supposed redline and the latest offer allows Iran to continue enrichment.

The US has capitulated from its red lines?

 

[ShapurII]

But Witkoff and Rubio were on TV saying very openly and clearly that their redline was no enrichment. And Araghchi was just pretending none of that happened and continuing negotiations anyway. He is running out of rope to pretend.

Invocation of snapback by Europeans while still negotiating with the US might limit our response. Snapback is a disaster diplomatically and economically and means we are back under UNSC sanctions. Further action can be blocked by China and Russia but not ideal to be at their mercy.

Yes, but that started after the third round. The first two rounds were pretty positive. Iranians came to the negotiating table with a detailed offer and the Americans accepted the offer and said they would discuss it with Washington.

Do not count on the Russians or the Chinese. They let 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions to be passed on Iran, why would they act differently this time?

The IR has put themselves in this place and it's really hard to get out of it this time. The only way left is to go nuclear. We have enough uranium for 10-15 warheads. We seem to have a working design for an implosion device similar to Mark V. We have IRBMs that can put any European capital under our nuclear missiles. The only choice left to survive is to go nuclear and then negotiate with the West over the megatons of our nuclear arsenal. Just like our missile technology. They resisted it at first, but now they have accepted it.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes, but that started after the third round. The first two rounds were pretty positive. Iranians came to the negotiating table with a detailed offer and the Americans accepted the offer and said they would discuss it with Washington.

Do not count on the Russians or the Chinese. They let 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions to be passed on Iran, why would they act differently this time?

The IR has put themselves in this place and it's really hard to get out of it this time. The only way left is to go nuclear. We have enough uranium for 10-15 warheads. We seem to have a working design for an implosion device similar to Mark V. We have IRBMs that can put any European capital under our nuclear missiles. The only choice left to survive is to go nuclear and then negotiate with the West over the megatons of our nuclear arsenal. Just like our missile technology. They resisted it at first, but now they have accepted it.

I take it back. Araghchi is a genius. Lol.

Russians and Chinese can be trusted for now (more so than in 2009-2012) but not permanently so it's not a long term solution.

Building nukes doesn't get us out of the UNSC, unless we agree to give them up.

 

[ShapurII]

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The nuclear deal proposal the U.S. gave Iran on Saturday would allow limited low-level uranium enrichment on Iranian soil for a to-be-determined period of time, Axios has learned, contradicting public statements from top officials.

--

now Barak says the US has withdrawn from its supposed redline and the latest offer allows Iran to continue enrichment.

The US has capitulated?

Zohrehvand, a member of the National Security Committee of the Parliament, has talked about this already. They have given us two choice:
1. A consortium with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, owned by the Americans. Iran will have a share. Sort of like the Eurodiff experience during the Shah's time.
2. Iran will stop uranium enrichment for a short period and then it can continue low-level enrichment.

Both options are vague enough to be breached at will by the US.

 

[hyperman]

Do not count on the Russians or the Chinese. They let 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions to be passed on Iran, why would they act differently this time?

Different time, back when Russia was trying to be on the good side of the west and courting western support after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Really all these Un Sanctions only started post 1991 with the Soviet Collapse, before then, no one got sanctioned at the UN, b/c Soviets would just veto.

 

[ShapurII]

I take it back. Araghchi is a genius. Lol.

Russians and Chinese can be trusted for now (more so than in 2009-2012) but not permanently so it's not a long term solution.

Building nukes doesn't get us out of the UNSC, unless we agree to give them up.

Why? What has changed about the Chinese or the Russians?

No, it won't get us out of the UNSC, but it will force them to accept the new reality of our nuclear program. We can move towards hydrogen bombs then. And it will guarantee that our country will not be bombed to shit.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Why? What has changed about the Chinese or the Russians?

No, it won't get us out of the UNSC, but it will force them to accept the new reality of our nuclear program. We can move towards hydrogen bombs then. And it will guarantee that our country will not be bombed to shit.

They are closer to Iran now than they were then and this is evidenced by the difference in their voting history since then.

How will it force them to accept anything other than Iran staying under UNSC sanctions forever? How does it resolve our economic issues? The end game has to be sanctions relief. Building nukes to give them up is one way to do that, but we know how that game ends.

 

[ShapurII]

Different time, back when Russia was trying to be on the good side of the west and courting western support after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Really all these Un Sanctions only started post 1991 with the Soviet Collapse, before then, no one got sanctioned at the UN, b/c Soviets would just veto.

In practice, nothing has changed. Putin was in power back then, and Putin is still in power. The Chinese haven't changed much either. The moment that the West offers the Russians, or the Chinese, an option to trade their veto over Iran, they will take it.

Russia has not delivered a single Su-35 after 4 years and you think they will side with Iran?

 

[ShapurII]

They are closer to Iran now than they were then and this is evidenced by the difference in their voting history since then.

In what sense? Have they delivered anything of strategic value to Iran since 2015? Didn't they even request Iran to settle our differences with the UAE over our islands?

How will it force them to accept anything other than Iran staying under UNSC sanctions forever? How does it resolve our economic issues? The end game has to be sanctions relief. Building nukes to give them up is one way to do that, but we know how that game ends.

Do we have another option? If the snapback mechanism is activated, we will be under UNSC sanctions again. Do you think then the West will somehow magically decide to approach us with goodwill and lift the sanctions?
Once that happens, only one, and I emphasize ONLY ONE thing can happen after that: regime change.
Nuclear weapons at least guarantee that regime change will not happen.