Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ
Trusted Member
Having a China-made SWIFT-like messaging network does not solve the core issue by itself. SWIFT is mainly plumbing for financial messages. The harder parts are settlement, correspondent access, compliance risk, and liquidity.
Even with a "SWIFT-similar" rail, you still need a settlement currency that people can reliably obtain and use. If trade is settled in renminbi, you need RMB liquidity. That can come from FX markets, offshore RMB like CNH, trade finance, or central bank swap lines. But it is still constrained by China's capital controls and by how deep and open RMB markets are.
If settlement is not in RMB, China usually will not want to accumulate lots of foreign local currencies unless they are easy to convert and easy to use. So the bottleneck is not just messaging. It is currency convertibility, market access, and risk, including sanctions and secondary-sanctions risk. That is why a SWIFT alternative alone does not automatically unlock major deals.
Correct. Which is why the rush for precious metals. At the end of the day mechanism for settlements has to be decided... and a basket of metals/minerals/commodities/grains decided to walk away from speculative inflation controlled and gatekept by possible hostile state deciding economic well-being of billions for primarily a handful.
It just cannot be allowed to fester as much as it already did... with manifest consequences.








