Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Oscar said:
It really depends since air supremacy means US can provide air support at will but if Iran has even a quarter of what the Japanese had set up at Iwo Jima it could result in quite a few US casualties before the Island is taken.
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I don’t doubt US can take the island. They likely will by sheer overwhelming firepower. It’s holding the Island that I don’t think is likely.

I also think the propaganda on the island has gotten way out of hand. Iran can always redirect oil flows to other terminals like Jask, which was built as an alternative.

Kharags benefits has always been convience for VLCC in the shallow waters of the PG. however, everyone and their mom acts like the oil is actually extracted there. It’s not an oil field. This overstatement can end up causing a let down when once captured the supposed benefits don’t show up.

People act like Iran is the Death Star and Kharg is the critical design flaw that blows up the entire country. It doesn’t work that way.
 
AZ_HighCountry said:
You need to remember the circumstances behind that operation. We learned a lot from that operation. Lessons that were not repeated during Shield / Storm.
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Sure, I get that, Iran has also learned lessons from fighting then fighting US, Iraq, Israel and of course studied Afghanistan closely. Awkward fact is the enemy can learn too, and going by the last few weeks Iran seems to be the one that has surprised many.

No room for complacency but right now this whole thing is an utter disaster for the US, it still has the chance to get better or turn into a complete and utter blood bath for American. Thankfully it has not come to that.
 
shapurzolaktaf said:
Still not enough, logistics will be hell, death toll will be very high. FPV drones changed warfare, it will be way worse than Afghanistan and Iraq.
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It's not enough for creating a buffer zone in the south of Iran, but it is more than enough to invade and hold a couple of small Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has extremely limited ability for transporting our troops to defend those islands. We don't have an air force. We don't have a navy. Unfortunately, 70K is enough to invade a couple of Iranian islands. We can't "teleport" people unfortunately.
 
Immortals said:
I don’t doubt US can take the island. They likely will by sheer overwhelming firepower. It’s holding the Island that I don’t think is likely.

I also think the propaganda on the island has gotten way out of hand. Iran can always redirect oil flows to other terminals like Jask, which was built as an alternative.

Kharags benefits has always been convience for VLCC in the shallow waters of the PG. however, everyone and their mom acts like the oil is actually extracted there. It’s not an oil field. This overstatement can end up causing a let down when once captured the supposed benefits don’t show up.

People act like Iran is the Death Star and Kharg is the critical design flaw that blows up the entire country. It doesn’t work that way.
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I don’t think that is the overall impression in military circles but it does provide a “Taiwan” of sorts if the US military gets really entrenched and unless they get into the days of Desert Shield and enforce a no-fly - no movement zone over Souther Iran even good old artillery could potentially reach the Island.
 
shapurzolaktaf said:
Still not enough, logistics will be hell, death toll will be very high. FPV drones changed warfare, it will be way worse than Afghanistan and Iraq.
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How are they gonna get them food/water?

Remember when Russia overextended in Ukraine and forgot to build its logistical lines. Troops were running out of food and robbing grocery stores and gas stations were being used for fuel.
 
AZ_HighCountry said:
What number do you think that would take?

During the war in Vietnam, the average weekly number of US KIA was approximately 1100. There was no move to impeach Johnson and later Nixon.
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Vietnam had no major influence on Energy and stock market. Totally not comparable.
 
For an attack on Iran
1. 100k Kurdish and other like
minded group.
2. At least 150k US troops already pre deployed in position with proper air cover...
3. Gulf/Israel providing another 500k ready to go status.
4. Nato coming in with further 150k to 200k troops.
5. Either China or Russia need to be on board.
Now you looking at an invading force of
100k kurdish + 200US + 500Arab ISREAL + 200Nato = million man army, now we can start to think of possiblity.
Even with that few things are lost already.
1. Surprise factor
2. Point of entry for execution
3. Iraq totally subdued or surpries element.
4. Air superiority and total domination of the skies
5. Pakistan totally subdued via India or on board.
6. Turkey on board along with entire NATO.
7. China nuteral or at least the supply line cut off, which is not.
8. A center of gravity that is willing to ciptulate or at least Saddam/Qadafi style execution.
9. If Gaza didn't happen because of that US and Israel lost the image that they held a decade ago.
10. Iranian's have shown no fear at all.
To late for any ground invasion
 
ShapurII said:
They can be super humans for all I care. 5K is not enough to invade and hold an Iranian island.
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They could be enough to hold the 3 islands that UAE and Iran have a dispute over. Then US builds up more forces and threatens that either open the Strait or lose Kharg Island.
 
AZ_HighCountry said:
What number do you think that would take?

During the war in Vietnam, the average weekly number of US KIA was approximately 1100. There was no move to impeach Johnson and later Nixon.
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Did Johnson and Nixon say stuff like this?

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