Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

No new interceptors can be manufactured, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics.

Why do you assume it has to be manufactured?

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.

Aircrew will have a rest. US amphibious ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Their troops will be prepared for a ground invasion of Iran. Their CSGs will get closer to the Arabian Sea. Markets are recovering already. An oil/energy crisis has been avoided.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay.

There is not. Iran has no cards to use in these negotiations except for our uranium stockpile, which they want to remove from our territory. Iran can go to Islamabad, sign its surrender and return home and frame it as a victory.

It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking.

They had 20 years to do that, if not more. They had 9 months to do that after the June war. 2 more weeks will change nothing.

I could go on.. I was the same thought as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay.

I see none honestly.

 

[MH.Yang]

All the reports are saying it was Chinese pressure that got Iran to agree to this. I expect their UN veto relied on Iran agreeing.

Firstly, China does not have such significant influence over Iran, otherwise President Laissey would not have died. Secondly, Russia also has veto power. Thirdly, the ceasefire in Iran is not in line with China's interests.

 

[Optical216]

Sir - relax.

2 weeks is not enough time for there to be much of a material advantage to either USA or Israel if this starts again. No new interceptors can be manufactured in that time, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics at all ( just look at the C17 flights RescueRanger has been posting).

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.

The Straits can be closed in two minutes flat.

Lets see how the talks go, if they fail, then the bloodshed will be back on again. I don't think Trump wants to get trapped into war again, so the advantage rests with Iran to extract as much as it can. Pakistan will help in this regard as Pakistan "understands" the USA far better than Iran does.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay. I don't see Iran giving up their only means of defence either, or their allies. In all likelihood it will be JCPOA with some extra trimmings at most.

Also, It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking so far. If the IRGC can come with a game plan and target list to destroy key infrastructure in the 2 weeks, then all the better ?

I could go on.. I was the same thought/mind as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard where I think i echoed what you said. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay as well, with the possibility of a real peace deal.

Pakistan has basically given trump a face saving offramp, which trump even before was longing for hence desperate attempts.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Sir - relax.

2 weeks is not enough time for there to be much of a material advantage to either USA or Israel if this starts again. No new interceptors can be manufactured, there will be no new ammunition supplies as USA has had NO issues with its logistics.

The only material difference is that aircrew can be rested/refreshed, that is all.

The Straits can be closed in two minutes flat.

Lets see how the talks go, if they fail, then the bloodshed will be back on again.

I do feel there is an opportunity for Iran to unwind decades of sanctions, and that is truly worth the risk of a delay.

It gives the IRGC some time to work out new tactics against Israel, as they have been founding lacking.

I could go on.. I was the same thought as you, and i made 3 long winded posts in that regard. After some thought, I went back and deleted them as I could see the advantages for Iran also in this delay.

Iran has all its leverage intact:
-Hormuz
-Bab al Mandeb
-Destruction of regional energy facilities

They are already saying that the damage to the regional energy infrastructure will take years to be repaired and fully functional like in the past.

And indeed 2 weeks is not enough to change the situation, actually it benefits Iran more in logistical sense if the war restarts in 2 weeks.

Invasion of Iran will become more difficult because we're approaching summer heat.

Another thing is that many countries are angry at US and Israel, restarting the war AGAIN will make the world really curse USA and Israel.

Meanwhile investment climate in Persian Gulf is not secure as long as there is no final agreement between Iran and USA.

That's why my conclusion is that the ceasefire itself increases the leverage for Iran.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Ghalibaf and Vance should talk face to face, rather Pakistan running around between the rooms as the messenger.

That is the plan.

 

[Majestic]

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what the hell this is????

 

[Bengal71]

Ya it might happen but can israel open a new front ? I mean iran's front , Southern Lebanon , Gaza , Houthis and now Egypt? haha that's suicide to be honest.

Does Egypt have the resolve like before?

 

[ShapurII]

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what the hell this is????

That's what a ceasefire means. Cease fire! He is not saying anything strange.
They will resume the war if Iran doesn't accept their terms of surrender, handed to us in Islamabad.

 

[Meengla]

Now Trump says there will be no enrichment and refers to his 15 point plan
What a farce

Right.
And 77 million people voted a 'farce' into power over the most powerful nation in Earth!
Yeah, some 'democracy' my a$$. But the 'democracy' farce is not just restricted to America: Incompetent demagogues have been elected by other nations, too. I don't want to get into the details in this thread; people here know my views about Pakistan's charlatans quite well.

 

[ghazi52]

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[TallGuy]

To all my Iranian brothers!

its just a ceasefire! it is still open ended - Entity will ruin it so for the Hawks of Iran (its inevitable!) for the doves of Iran (breathing space!)

 

[kobra]

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what the hell this is????

He is not wrong, this is what casefire essentialy means. It could go on for two weeks, two years or maybe two decades.
They havent done truce yet.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Firstly, China does not have such significant influence over Iran, otherwise President Laissey would not have died. Secondly, Russia also has veto power. Thirdly, the ceasefire in Iran is not in line with China's interests.

What does Chinese influence have to do with someone being assassinated? Russians are zionists and only vetoed because China vetoed. China does benefit from not being thrown into a global energy crisis, they benefit way more economically than the US does from a ceasefire. China can say and likely did say we will cut off your economic lifelines if you don't accept.

 

[UKBengali]

The war fighting against Israel was odd, and lacked strategy, and there will be lessons learnt. I suspect this maybe down to the mosaic framework that did not have a core guiding guidelines for operations ? Something was off, for sure.

Yes as too many high level commanders kept getting killed and so centralised war fighting strategy kept getting disrupted.

Iran should have spent at least a week targeting Zionist infrastructure as that was the only way to truly deter attacks on its own infrastructure.

Forget about “feel good” from terrorising settlers or punishing Arab puppets apart from taking out radars/batteries helping defend the Zionist entity but just cause infrastructure damage to Zionists squatting in Palestine first.

 

[Majestic]

Israel is like a mad dog biting everyone. If America really wants the ceasefire to hold, it must put a leash on Israel. otherwise, this conflict can explode again at any moment