Master Chief
Trusted Member
I wonder if Iran's best strategy is low intensity engagement, remaining below certain thresholds, but inflicting steady economic harm to its enemies.@ Mods - hope this doesn't get banned.
You keep bringing up take the deal - but what are the specifics of it? Trump wants total capitulation which would end current Islamic practices as we know it. They want control for the soul of the religion. Since you mockingly mentioned the Zanibyon therefore implying taking a shot at Shias, let me return the favor - Sunnis ( assume you are one given the inherent biases in your words towards Shias), are a spend force both morally, politically, and religiously. Some Shias are too, but the heart of Shia still beats therefore they are still fighting. For the record, I do not consider Pakistan a "Sunni" state but a Muslim one.
You asking Iranians to sign the deal is akin to asking Imam Hussein (a.s.) to bend the knee at Karbala.
You want the Iranians to sign a deal with Baal worshipers who have broken the all diplomatic norms of m*rdering peacemaker and negotiators while feinting talks only to stab the Iranians twice in the back.
We seen what they did to the ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.
I don't advocate war and destruction but in my calculus taking a stand will provide a better ROI given the world's economy at stake.
Why would Iran use dirty bombs? They have a far bigger, powerful weapon in choking off the SoH and letting the world slide in another great depression.
Finally, you bring up death in Iran and lack of a strong conventional deterrent - did Vietnam have any of that when they fought for 8 years against the US? Did the Iraqis have any of that while taking on the US that had full spectrum dominance over land, air, and sea from 2003 to 2011?
Iran might, and will face a lot of death and destruction, but its a civilizational state that will quickly put itself together once this is over, and even if it falls apart, the core part will be a huge portion with a sizable population size that will reincorporate the lost parts easily.
Indeed, a very astute lady Pakistani think tank analyst (sorry I can't recall her name now) on AJ was saying precisely this yesterday - to paraphrase her: that strict escalation management with simultaneous avoidance of confrontational overreach is the likely medium-term outcome.
I believe Iran could sustain that AND rebuild at the same time.
Very precarious position though. And it is probable that certain losses will need to be incurred (e.g. can Hezbollah be realistically re-supplied by Iran now?).
It seems to be - to third party observers - that NEITHER USA, nor Iran can return to their respective pre-war optimums at present. Some harm will be perpetuated for both sides.







