Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[030292]

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SPR went from going down 6-7M barrels per week to now just 3-3.5M. A reduction rate of HALF. Iran is losing leverage if it cannot enforce the closure of the SoH. At this rate getting to 250M barrels could take months.

@Persian Gulf

That could mean one of two things, either hormuz is leaky or they are drawing very little to preserve the integrity of salt caverns.

Isn't the minimum limit you can draw from salt caverns is 300million barrel, if you draw any more the caverns get degraded.

 

[Meengla]

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Sanchez is an example of what nations can do based on humanity and he is a slap on the faces of those--and we know some here--who keep repeating like 'Nations act only in their own interests'. Spain gains nothing by siding against this war except global admiration, just like Ireland gain nothing by siding with the Palestinians during the recent Gaza war.

 

[Meengla]

The strait is leaky! IRGC failing in real time. Up to 5-7MBPD is leaving the SoH with US air cover support! Add in the 2MBPD from UAE pipeline bypass! FAILURE!

If the Strait is that leaky then why is Trump calling for another truce? Also, do you recall just some weeks ago, Trump was crowing about he managed 100 million barrels of oil to pass through the Iranian blockade and then a few days later he said he doesn't want to be remembered as another Herbert Hoover?
There is a lot of propaganda from all sides but we need to look at what the nations are doing instead of what they are saying. And from what I can tell, the Americans don't want a prolonged war and are trying to get out of this as long a there is face saving and as long as the Petro Dollar is sufficiently secured. This war against Iran is unwinnable, much like the Vietnam War and the War in Afghanistan was for the Americans.

 

[tsunset]

What are the chances of a military coup in Iran right now? Are the IRGC & SL giving their tacit consent on this agreement?

There will never be any coup or regime change

Those are all either IRGC fanboy or Israeli/Evangelic American delusions

 

[Meengla]

This thing seems bigger than Trump. He is another tool to advance a decades old roadmap. Trump already served his purpose by starting this war. He is replaceable, which explains his care about elections. The next tool will continue the same agenda and will probably be better at it too.

Not necessarily will lead to another war on Iran. There are different entities in America with their own objectives--probably because of not only ideological reasons but also $$ from lobbies. The Democrats are the hawks in the Russia-Ukraine war but the Democratic President Obama spent a good bit of time for the JCPOA despite huge opposition from Saudi Arabia and Israel. JD Vance was very much against the Iran war before he even he became the VP and I am nearly certain if Trump has a heart attack today, then POTUS Vance will wrap up this war and no more while he would be the President. Heck, if Netanyahu has a heart attack today then I think the next Israel PM will not be for a war on Iran as Israel too has suffered some consequences.

 

[Magi]

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[Immortals]

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[Master Chief]

If the Strait is that leaky then why is Trump calling for another truce?

Excellent question. I would suggest that it may well be that the Strait is "leaky" but that the leak is so expensive to maintain that it would not be an economically viable long term prospect for the US to do so. Iran probably does have de facto control over the Strait, even if that means some ships get through under escort (which is clearly not a sustainable model).

The leak is too expensive to fix and too expensive to not fix. Which aptly reminds us that nothing was even broken before US-Israel started this war of choice!

 

[030292]

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Trump negotiating with himself and still losing lol

 

[Shags101]

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So basically everyone is contradicting what Trump has been posting even the Americans there was no surrender or even the most informal agreement about anything it’s starting to look like trumps bluff was called doesn’t mean action won’t happen sooner than later one way or the other

 

[Meengla]

I'm sure they can stop all sales and use all production to their own armed forces and take away 99% from Asia etc. Even the US mainland... Who is going to lob missiles and drones into the US mainland? Lol. Maybe save 10-15% for Ukraine. So I don't think the problem is the shortages, the problem is Iran can guarantee destroying all energy production in the region, no matter how many Patriots etc. there are. That's the real bargaining chip Iran has and the straits.

Right.
Iran is not as much without options as some perennial breast beaters in this thread say. Look at this video: If true, Americans are even leaving their presence in Iraq. Plus, the just-postponed latest attack on Iran would be only possible if the Pentagon got everything from the US military hardware, thus compromising preparedness against China and Russia and elsewhere.
Short, interesting video.

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[030292]

Excellent question. I would suggest that it may well be that the Strait is "leaky" but that the leak is so expensive to maintain that it would not be an economically viable long term prospect for the US to do so. Iran probably does have de facto control over the Strait, even if that means some ships get through under escort (which is clearly not a sustainable model).

The leak is too expensive to fix and too expensive to not fix. Which aptly reminds us that nothing was even broken before US-Israel started this war of choice!

I think this is exactly whats happening, us army is probably escorting few willing vessels out of the strait but its just unsustainable to keep escorting vessels under the us army cover forever, that too very few like 5-10 as compared to 160+ before the war, this is one of the reasons why trump is having mental breakdowns, he cant keep escorting vessels, he cant take full control of the strait without significant losses, its a rock and a hard place situation, he cant stomach the fact that his own stupidity took 20% of oil and oil related products off the market.

 

[Nawnaw1]

Why do you think that?



They do have many answers. They are reshaping the Iranian polity by eliminating the figures they dislike. They are blockading Iran, degrading and demolishing Iranian factories, universities, conventional military, basic civilian infrastructure, and many more. Not to mention forming military opposition blocks against Iran. Every time they need a break to reload or recalibrate, Iran obliges.

The destruction of the bases isn't as significant as some make it sound. They were paid for by the sand vassals and will be rebuilt again as long as US controls the oil under the sand. Rebuilding them creates jobs in the US. The shot down aircraft and drones, and spent munitions too only means more revenue for manufacturing shareholders. There has not been an energy or stock market crash. The only real cost for the US are the 18 or so KIA. Even at 180 or 1800 KIA this is a massive win for the US.

Maggy, if you want to keep dooming, that's fine, no need to explain it to me. If you think the US can have the same force posture around Iran without all those bases in the PGCC, then you need a quick lesson in military logistics.

Iran is a woman that's being raped, no doubt about it. It will get raped harder and harder. As long as it can survive, and scratch the eyes out of the rapist, it can win. It will take a long time to recover, but Iran and the US are not peers. Iran can't do the same to the US. It can survive and make the cost as high as possible. And that's the strategy it is following.

I think this is exactly whats happening, us army is probably escorting few willing vessels out of the strait but its just unsustainable to keep escorting vessels under the us army cover forever, that too very few like 5-10 as compared to 160+ before the war, this is one of the reasons why trump is having mental breakdowns, he cant keep escorting vessels, he cant take full control of the strait without significant losses, its a rock and a hard place situation, he cant stomach the fact that his own stupidity took 20% of oil and oil related products off the market.

Exactly, what I said before. Now watch the criers come and say it's super leaky and super sustainable for the US to use such a large portion of it's military for symbolic 'leaking'. Sure.

 

[Meengla]

Mowing the lawn isn't done on a week to week basis. This shows the US was unprepared and/or has no answers for what Iran is doing right now or does not want to accept the price Iran can impose on it. This is indecision and impossible outcomes. Iran now has to force the US' hand.

Right.
The 'mowing the lawn' analogy doesn't apply here for many reason. The Israelis were next to Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria and could launch surprise attacks to 'mow the lawn' for decades. Here, the Americans are being kicked out of land presence, have to have expensive and exhausting attacks from the Arabian Sea, and the target is a large country who can and has shown fighting back capability. And quite possibly the worst society to try to break from within due to deeply steeped ideologies of martyrdom on top of sense of national survival. So it appears to me that Americans have picked a fight with one nation which cant buckle short of many nukes dropped on it.

 

[Abdul q]

Trump negotiating with himself and still losing lol

Said it before