Has deterrence been established?
Who wants to have the straits opened by giving Iran ownership?
Of course Iran can keep the choke on... or, perhaps they want to have their oil sailing to China again as well.
The fight past the straits is not one Iran can sway... not now.
So the deterrence you're talking about doesn't exist. However, one that stops any attack on Iran needs Iran to finally go nuclear. The MAD has to be established to deter that...
And nothing less.
for everything else control of the Straits is enough.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry. How many times do we have to go through this? When did they honor a deal with Iran last? Trump just threated decapitation. He is still demanding the Strait be "opened."
Don't go by him...
But consolidate on gains... for that you have to know that the control of Hormuz is a material change from what existed before.
Of course, orange clown would want to claw back to status quo ante... but that isn't Iran's job to stop him from saying or doing what he does!
You cannot trust him... but you cannot surrender on what you hold now either... that is difference between physical and abstract.
With the current political reality in Iran,
شتر در خواب بیند پنبه دانه گهی لپ لپ خورد گه دانه دانه
Wasn't that the plan in Islamabad MoU? Trump signed it and all? Is this dejavu?
As long as Iran will keep standing up for is it's...
A piece of paper is meaningless against reality on the ground. The reality will follow around to it...
Some on these pages wanted MoU understood at length. Well, something got defind, right?
Again, never trust the one who means you harm... but wants to keep own prospects in order as well. Orange didn't attack Iran for nukes... that is what he said or says publicly... what they wanted or want is the collapse of the state itself... for the benefit of zion... which is why the smug Mileikowsky had his best meeting yet with orange. With Iran staying intact... it can go nuclear.... i don't think there is a choice now.
I mean, what do you base this on? Crude oil supply volume is barely reduced at all at this point. Any risk is factored in the increase in today's price compared to Feb 27. Looks like reasonable valuation to me.
Why are the reserves dropping? While European and US are still dropping. Japan has recovered some... Chinese dropped their purchase... of course the disruption has been managed and not widespread to cause immediate pain at the pumps of energy shortages... and that is the purpose os having reserves... but paper prospects can be managed outside of coming risk... in hopes of resumption of sale again. The chokes on global shipping don't only hold energy supplies... they impact upstream as well. For now the markets are liquid enough... and that is a gamble itself... which is why orange tweets and banks on messaging. It sells...
Thus far... much of these concerns are indirect to US itself... which is why orange could gamble with European, or east Asian energy supplies... make Europe buy more of the US instead as Condy Rice once said... but that is not Iran's concern... which is to remove a hostile power from across the globe to move away from it's shores and borders. The region around it is itself energy deficient. Iran has to pursue it's own markets outside of manipulation from across the globe. The prospects of people in the region depend on it.
