Master Chief
Trusted Member
The war is over, certainly in terms of its hot phase. If any pact was intended to hurt Iran, it would have been inked AND acted on months ago.I agree, let's think logically about it.
When Pakistan signed the initial pact, Iran and Saudi Arabia were not directly involved in war against each other, right? So, there was no reason for the initial pact to impact Iran in any reasonable way. But now that Iran and Saudi Arabia are involved in hostilities, what do you think a second pact implies?
Because they see this as an opportunity to destroy Iran while Iran is at its weakest fighting the US and Israel. And why do we assume that's true? Well, MBS has literally threatened Iran with destruction when he came to power in 2018, and even before that, a decade before him, the Saudis constantly pressured Obama to "cut the head of the snake". MBS literally created propaganda videos about attacking Iran and publicly said that they would bring war to Tehran.
It actually loathes me to say it's over because I really wanted Iran to obliterate US-Israeli hegemony. I don't wish to see zios and neo-pahlavists bring their vile ideologies to your country (which is also our western flank).
Tehran performed admirably in certain phases but you have never once enjoyed the air superiority required to enforce your will, defend yourselves, move assets around even your own country to where they are needed, or even to capture a stricken enemy airman lying semi-conscious on some rocky outcrop. You have little to no ability to harm enemy naval vessels and have limited ability to impact defenceless merchant vessels. US is also not falling into the trap of sending in battalions of infantry to be ground into pulp by your drones - credit where it's due, they're smart enough to avoid a disaster. Meanwhile, your leadership is picked off almost on a whim by the dreaded decapitation attacks.
Beyond these local difficulties , more has occurred over the last 3 years that has clipped the wings of Tehran's rise - Hezbollah cannot be helped by Tehran because of Jolani playing a high block and Hamas are literally no more.
Did MBS actually achieve any of that all by himself from his little palace in the desert?
I may well be wrong but I would like to think Iran can still walk away with some marginal win by extracting a SoH toll and that Iran then takes its time and rebuilds, quietly, and avoids some of the mistakes made in terms of "realpolitik" (a term many here seem to like!) such as the overreach described above.
I find MBS's rhetoric vile and reprehensible but rhetoric alone really doesn't bring any actual harm to Iran.





