Iran as a country, does not have the political will or devotion to maintain a proper airforce otherwise if we go by pure technical capability, Iran can produce a better version of every single component for such an upgrade, except for the turbofan, even that is possible with mild level collaboration.
Weak, immature, and nonserious leadership has ruined the following programs with a lack of budget (400-600 mln for IRIAF) and political appointments such as incompetent Vahedi.
-Kowsar, a light 4.0 Generation CAP+interceptor, 5 produced in 6 years. Realistically the program should have concluded by 2025 with 70 initially planned fighters, with small RCS, long tracking range radar, FBW, avionics, a light BVR/All-aspect WVR, data linking, etc. A hard to defeat fleet inside IADS that data linked with UCAVs+LORADS/SHORADS would have produced a nimble layer of air defense. This would have allowed IADS and other interceptors to breathe but no $$$ put in = the program is dead. This fleet would have been a perfect complement to the incoming Su-35S.
- Yasin-AFT, still flying on non-afterburning J-85/Owj, 2 produced of which one is flyable now. Its lack of induction tells us the Kowsar program is dead just like before it, SaegheI/II died with 6 abominations. Yasin AFT uses the same modern avionics package as Kowsar so if Yasin is not being produced or inducted then it means Kowsar, any local F-4/14 upgrade plan has died as well. SAIRAN produced avionics for 4.0 to 4+ generation fighters that we have seen in unveilings have gone to waste.
- F-14AM upgrade could have given Iran a long-range BVR interceptor to thwart IAF's large RCS attack fighters such as F-15I over Iraq or Saudi Airspace, but barely 15-18 aircrafts underwent depot level upgrade, rest of the fleet (42 airframes in total) is not even seen anymore on CAP or parades let alone on QRA/FMC duties. IAF fighters can easily deploy ALBMs over Iraq, nothing is there to thwart them. They can easily come deep into Iraqi airspace, deliver lofted Apogee ALBMs on Bavar/S-300PMu2/Khordad/OTH sites, and return. Once the IADS is injured, the tactical and dare I say strategic sites can be taken out. Maghsoud LRBVR is not delivered to F-14AM fleet so this tells us the fleet may retire. LR-BVR thwarts enemy missions esp the ones that need the enemy attack aircraft to come into a predictable zone with known speed, altitude etc. Such is how ALBM is launched. Not to mention the huge RCS of ALBM carrying aircraft. Israel will not risk losing fighters over Iraq so suddenly the equation changes but leadership is focused on hanging 15 year old girls.
- MIG-29 9.12 lacks ARH BVR, its radar is barely tracking a 4th-generation fighter at 50 KM. It has no SAR or ECCM package. F-4E/D Dowran still lacks BVR and modern HOBS WVR. Why they are still flying Mirages, F-7, F-5 crap? Just recently some stupid commander of a base hosting Mirages was talking about "Habibi Upgrade" of using Fakours SARH and SAIRAN radar/avionics package on Mirages, a project which may cost 200 mln USD to bring 2 squadrons to life. but in reality, Mirages lack pylons.
- Azarakhsh WVR is being shown as SAM but is not deployed on IRIAF aircraft. It's an all-aspect high HOBS weapon with a Contrast Imaging seeker but IRIAF still uses Shahi AIM-9J (non-all aspect) with deformed paint. Local AIM-7M equivalent "Arash-Light BVR" was shown twice but like Maghsood it's gone too.
....... List goes on. IRIAF needs to be given to IRGC-AF otherwise the branch is done. IRGC will turn IRIAF into