Well, if we were in early 2000, I will agree with you. But then look at how much oil OPEC produce now (well, last year figure)?
View attachment 64905
List of countries by oil production 2023: United States 11,184,870 bbl, Russia 10,111,830 bbl, Saudi Arabia (OPEC) 9,313,145 bbl, Canada 4,459,455 bbl, Iraq (OPEC) 4,084,822 bbl, China 3,987,677 bbl, United Arab Emirates (OPEC) 3,091,481 bbl, Brazil 2,905,121 bbl, Iran 2,546,336 bbl, Kuwait...
countrycassette.com
OPEC only account for probably 1/3 off the top 10 (give or take, do the math yourself), and the 3 main player are US, Russia and Saudi.
Russia is not going to lower the production, that mean money for them, and that's the whole point, Saudi can probably squeeze 1 million barrel but that's it, any less it will take a big hit on their revenue, and US can Canada alone can offset almost anything Saudi cut, bear in mind US and Canada can produce up to 20 million barrel a day at the maximum, if they want to. If the US and Canada expand to that level, you are talking about roughly 10 million barrels
COMBINED for all OPEC country, that's not enough for them to even drill them.
So, no, if US and Canada were to increase their oil production, OPEC can't match, they cannot cut a lot, otherwise it will hurt their revenue.
And selling surplus does not work that way, it kept the price low, because you are dumping strategic reserve. If you cut oil production and then selling surplus, the 2 actions negate each other