Pak-Afghan Border Skirmishes and Terrorism Watch

[Bilal]

The Afghans have never accepted it in the first place, so break Afghanistan and take the corridor.

That’s the point. It’s our stance, doing anything like that is going to demolish our own stance for the international community.

 

[RescueRanger]

No. They want US to do it for them.

Talibs have been hitting the cheap charas hard it seems.

 

[CynicalPakistaniCritic]

Saw someone say this on Twitter and it's actually true no matter how much people cope:

پاکستانی ایک بے شرم اور بے غیرت قوم ہے، ان سے زیادہ انڈین کی عزت ہے۔

افغان ان کی تباہی کا مطالبہ کرتے ہوئے بمباری کرتے ہیں اور انہیں مارتے ہیں، لیکن یہ بزدل ان سے تجارت اور بند ہونے کی التجا کرتے ہیں۔ کتنے بزدل ہیں یہ پاکستانی

 

[Bilal]

Talibs have been hitting the cheap charas hard it seems.

No it sure seems to be some high quality stuff.

 

[Bilal]

But jokes aside, we need to clean our internal crap. What’s being done is just fanning internal rifts. And every moron wants to take advantage of it.

 

[RescueRanger]

Saw someone say this on Twitter and it's actually true no matter how much people cope:

پاکستانی ایک بے شرم اور بے غیرت قوم ہے، ان سے زیادہ انڈین کی عزت ہے۔

افغان ان کی تباہی کا مطالبہ کرتے ہوئے بمباری کرتے ہیں اور انہیں مارتے ہیں، لیکن یہ بزدل ان سے تجارت اور بند ہونے کی التجا کرتے ہیں۔ کتنے بزدل ہیں یہ پاکستانی

I strongly believe that another misadventure will cause both sides to cross the Rubicon.

 

[RescueRanger]

But jokes aside, we need to clean our internal crap. What’s being done is just fanning internal rifts. And very moron wants to take advantage of it.

I did a detailed write up on a couple of internal issues namely foreign fighters and the motivation factors with input from JTR white papers. Sadly no one read it.

Available here:

The Challenge of Foreign Fighters

Foreign fighters presently in Afghanistan/Pakistan pose a considerable risk to regional security: It is important to differentiate between a home grown terrorist and foreign fighters. An insurgent is a person who is fighting against a state or a government and frequently resorts to violence...

defencepk.com

 

[CynicalPakistaniCritic]

Higher and more likely chances of Afghanistan becoming balkanized, to be honest.

The Tajiks seem to be ready to leave the false union. The Hazara never seemed to want to be a part of it in the first place. The rest are give or take.

Afghan Taliban has no morals and has disarmed non-Pashto populations. It is genociding them and capturing their land aggressively, a bit like Israel.

Soon they won't have the issue of balkanisation as they'll just wipe then out eventually. Pakistan will.

Afghanistan is controlled by a terrorist outfit that uses suicide bombing as its best method. The non-Pashtuns are powerless.

 

[Bilal]

I did a detailed write up on a couple of internal issues namely foreign fighters and the motivation factors with input from JTR white papers. Sadly no one read it.

Available here:

The Challenge of Foreign Fighters

Foreign fighters presently in Afghanistan/Pakistan pose a considerable risk to regional security: It is important to differentiate between a home grown terrorist and foreign fighters. An insurgent is a person who is fighting against a state or a government and frequently resorts to violence...

defencepk.com

Thank you! I’ll go through it.

My question is. Do you think the upcoming generation is de-radicalized and that may lead to collapse of this “supply chain” in the coming decade or so?

 

[CynicalPakistaniCritic]

One more interesting thing is how much they are shilling for Imran Khan.

Now imagine a country desparate for your dissolution and balkanisation, sponsors terrorism against you, is desperate for Imran Khan to return.

Taliban Khan is an Afghan fetishist and idiot, they know it well too so want him back.

 

[Bilal]

Additionally, I also foresee internal pressures on Talib’s will increase to focus on providing for the people. They have to be starved of war and conflict.

 

[Bilal]

One more interesting thing is how much they are shilling for Imran Khan.

Now imagine a country desparate for your dissolution and balkanisation, sponsors terrorism against you, is desperate for Imran Khan to return.

Taliban Khan is an Afghan fetishist and idiot, they know it well too so want him back.

They will exploit any grievances and every. It’s not for the love of IK. It’s just exploitation of the cracks we have here. Other cracks they exploit is poverty, lack of education and social injustice. Remember TTP started with hanging bandits and fighting against local feudals.

 

[KingQamaR]

Afghans and the Talibans are all ungrateful backstabbers. History keeps repeating itself. Don't bother with treaties that will not be honoured, just stop all the incentives that keep these scroungers, supposedly fleeing for their lives from war torn Afghanistan coming!

 

[RescueRanger]

Thank you! I’ll go through it.

My question is. Do you think the upcoming generation is de-radicalized and that may lead to collapse of this “supply chain” in the coming decade or so?

This is a million dollar question. So, the last time I attended a CT seminar was in 2022 in Islamabad and spoke with some excellent academics and researchers in Pakistan who specialize in CT and CVE.

The broad consensus is that the largely alienated generation stems from Gen X who have continued to propagate their narrative to people born after 1995 up until 2009 (this is the prime recruitment generation) for these scumbags.

If we apply the Borum's Four-Stage Model of the Terrorist Mindset - we need to intervene in countering extremist narrative at the third stage of the grievance = "me vs them" ladder.


Despite the noise, we do have a good understanding of the drivers that cause people to move from "disillusioned and disenfranchised" to "disgruntled" through to the "activist" stage - this is the stage where you need to counter the toxic narrative though a number of confidence building measures in the community which can range from inclusion in the democratic process and to build a sense of "ownership" for the communities and a unified identity.

What is required now is for the larger public to understand the "bigger picture" which is a working strategy which needs to consist of education, information, communication, prevention, protection, engagement and enforcement.

Overall let me say this with a degree of conviction that the newer generation of youth are largely indolent and disengaged with politics and ethno-centric resistance, we can thank social media for this (blessing and a curse) .

It is this generation we (Pakistan) need to target through a concentrated I.C.E (Information, Communication and Education) effort. As cliche as it may sound, we need more of this:

But we also must act smart, engage social media platforms that are frequented by the youth of Pakistan today. More effort should be placed to develop curated content for dissemination beyond Facebook and twitter through catchy and engaging Youtube short and TikTok video content:


Most of the videos and content pushed out so far are bland made by older generation of producers who are not savvy to the limited attention span of our youth today. The average attention span of a user is less than 2 seconds - that is the time the content creator has to grab the users attention.


This is why moving beyond scripted and high price tag productions to short snappy and catchy curated content on countering extremist narratives is so important in this digital age. NACTA and Pakistan should adopt the UK Contest CVE/CT Strategy which has been largely effective:

 

[RescueRanger]

Additionally, I also foresee internal pressures on Talib’s will increase to focus on providing for the people. They have to be starved of war and conflict.

Sir, food insecurity in Afghanistan has gone from 70 odd percent before Taliban takeover to 98% post takeover. With over 40% of families designated as food insecure nationally.