Do the afghans meaningfully care for modern economic development? I don't mean to provoke in an unkind way but to stimulate the notion that firstly economic prosperity can be a tremendous healer and secondly little to no economic development means one side has always next to nothing to lose, if that's true then they might as well go to war at some point? Beat the Soviets, the Americans, why worry about Pakistan? That I fear might be the equation, look at how basic education is going backwards, eventually the population will grow, they will eventually need something to do and someone to direct their resentment towards.
The point on lack of economic development is also an indictment on Pakistan, they cannot substantially develop themselves so they also cannot induce Afghanistan financially, or more ambitiously become economic partners. Therefore what might the calculus of the ruling military establishment be? Would they look to engage in perpetual low to medium intensity warfare to maintain their own control in Pakistan? What about a us friendly establishment looking to destabilise China?
It seems like a toxic mix, everyone seems to be thinking of violence in one form, for narrow self interest. These two countries desperately need an economic growth plan and strategy, the other path is to go backwards whilst the world moves ahead.
Finally, the taliban also have a tonne of old us weapons do they not? Am sure they can do a lot of damage.