Pakistan General Elections 2024

So instead of rigging to give PMLN a strong mandate, PDM 2.0 seems to be the chosen option of establishments rigging. Beyond stupidity given how terrible their performance was post IK ouster. At least a strong PML N mandate would allow them to make some reforms in face of public anger.

This scenario will inflame tensions even more and lead to early elections (1-2 years).
 
PTI and PPP would make a good setup for the country, its economy, and politics. However, PTI voters probably won't support it, so I believe PTI would prefer to sit in the opposition rather than forming a coalition government
There is what PTI wants and what PTI will need to do to achieve change. The first thing in democracy is you don’t get a 100% of what you want.

Also officiating this “marriage” would be the establishment and they have to have a three way series of negotiations to iron out what are the hardcore red lines of each side. Perhaps for IK it would mean no Zardari in the government in any official capacity.
 
PTI and PPP would make a good setup for the country, its economy, and politics. However, PTI voters probably won't support it, so I believe PTI would prefer to sit in the opposition rather than forming a coalition government
To be honest. I am double minded whether PTI should push for forming the government now or wait for after the IMF deal because that would be a bone breaking one by all indications.
 
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agreed upon the point that the first thing all parties should agree upon; a neutral and professional finance minister.

so from the point of view of economics, and what leverage Pakistan could exercise, the reason the PTI needs to lead the next government is four fold. One, sustainable development, not the debt based spending of PML-N but a progressive tax system, such as on property tax. Second, opening up industries to investment and breaking monopolies. Third, leveraging IK statements to extract long term economic agreements with the Afghans (the Central Asia economic opportunity; it’s not just resource extraction but facilitating trade with Russia for others the way European countries are doing to get around sanctions). Finally fourth, to attract FDI and retain cash in the country through persuasion not force.

Pakistan needs a plan to cut its CAD and pay back $25 billion a year for the next 3 years.

Pakistan needs a plan to live within its means and motivate the public to put their effort into the country. What the PDM government’s rule demonstrated was that none of these parties are brave enough to face the backlash from the electorate, but if a PTI government can get the mandate and cut red tape and attract FDI, the public will know that all the funding won’t be coming from their overstretched pockets alone.

My suggestion to make Bilawal the FM (and have the PML-N sit in opposition), is to the point you make that Pakistani parties need to work together. Bilawal and the PPP have many contacts in the liberal circles in the west. If Pakistan is to rebrand its image, abroad, Bilawal is mostly a blank slate. He can grow into that role. Domestically his backing can help speed up development in Sindh; such as finishing the motorway between Hyderabad and Sukkur, fixing the worst parts of the railway network, such as near Sukkur where major disasters have happened, and agricultural reforms (Bilawal says his party is the only anti-feudal party). Being in the government, Bilawal can set himself up well, on his own achievements over 5 years to run for the PM spot in 2029. Whatever government comes to power needs to be able to complete the full five years, and be able to hand over power to the next government. That demonstration of stability will be vital to attracting FDI and talent.

Pakistan needs to rebrand to the world, IK’s Sufism and Bilawal’s liberalism can play into this.

Both the PTI and PPP agree on devolving power to the local levels, unlike PMl-N which in their manifesto wants to create about 5 new ministries, such as one for all roads in Pakistan.

So a coalition government could a long way to easing the polarization, but it should not be at the expense of major reforms. The establishment needs to sit down with the PTI and PPP and iron out what reforms PTI wants to make and what reforms they (the establishment and PPP) are willing to sign off on, while at the same time the establishment and PPP need to lay out what foreign policy positions they want the PTI to stay away from and the PTI needs to state what it can agree upon and what it can’t.

Consider many in the mainstream Pakistani media, before the rug was pulled on election night, were indirectly reporting the PTI was closing in on a 2/3 majority, the establishment should seriously allow major economic and political reforms in exchange for the PTI giving up the 2/3 majority (and the perception). PTI needs to then talk about working together, and change the perception of how politics is done. IK does hold the imagination of a large part of the younger population. Without his active help, the establishment will have tens of millions of disaffected youth, and that is not good for long term development or stability.
Issue has never been this, but khan went to overboard while having differences with the military bhai. Without the military we have no survival. Economic meltdown is happening because of the extreme uncertainty khan brings. We don't know if he's make a government what their next step will be.

If they start a clash then we are rekt. Honestly we don't have a fiscal space for dharnas and uncertainty and clashing. Let by gones be by gones.
 
My friend: It is not a protest vote as you understand. What the hell Imran did to change the status quo while in power? He was in bed with the same Establishment which he programmed his followers to turn against due to the quest for power between Imran and Bajwa after the Fall of Kabul in August 2021. Nothing new: Previously, stupid Nawaz Sharif had multiple personal fights against Army Chiefs. The civilians always lose. In case of Pakistan, the Establishment and the entrenched politicians know that Pakistan is too dependent upon the West and thus they keep the status quo. Would Imran change the status quo? I don't think he can unless he has the whole nation behind him--no more bickering. No more chaos.


What we are seeing is a rejection of the Sharifs primarily because of the misrule of the PDM after April 2022. Imran having craftily turned Pakistan's economic miseries into a grand-narrative is not only a gift of Imran's politics but also a natural outcome: Poverty increased, misery increased and someone had to be blamed and believed to be the culprit. Enter America and the Army.

Who can say with confidence here that Imran given power will not be a repeat of where he ended by April 2022? He was going to lose the Early Elections and that's why he didn't call them even though he had weeks to call them before the NCM was tabled. Prime Minister who have confidence in their electability call early elections like ZAB did in 1976! Imran did not and you all mark my words: Unless he is a reformed person, he and Pakistan will be back to early 2022 days and it would sadly interesting to see what next excuses you guys would come up for Imran's another failure! Establishment? America? Discredited Noonies? Taliban?
We can agree to disagree on where the protest vote was directed towards, but I will agree all involved can’t continue their games.

I will agree on this; IK will have to be a reformed person or else he will have no excuse. He can’t take away the lesson that all his policies have been vindicated, but that everyone else’s mistakes have given him a second chance, a final chance. His excuse in the last government was that he was given poor advice. I hope to God, before he makes any major statement or policy prescription, he runs it through creditable experts and thinks it over, especially between now and the re-election of Trump, now till January 20th, 2025 is the time to focus on economic stability. Even when trump comes to office it will take 6-12 months for Trump to settle in. Nothing big can really happen until 2026, so better to not rock the boat.
 
I think you are right. As I said, I never formally affiliated with any organization. One day, to appease my friends at Karachi University who had been asking me to support them, I put on both the APMSO and the Jamaati (was that Islami Jamiat Taliba?) badges on my shirt. Both sides objected and I quickly took them off. Hahahah!
APMSO was a very organized student body like the Jamaatis student body was. And both violent and intolerant. Fascist in nature. NSF: National Student Federation was the leftover of the Socialist/Communist movements. They were not violent. Very civilized and educated. Their leaders claimed to me that if Zia allowed student body elections then they would win.

Karachi politics changed when a student Bushra Zaidi was run over by a public bus driven by a Pashtun driver in 1984/85. There were already simmering tensions due to the large influx of the Afghan refugees in Karachi--who were mainly Pashtun. Ms. Zaidi's death ignited a huge fire. MQM took full advantage of that and thus began the Pashtun vs Muhajir open violence.

I still recall an MQM convoy from Karachi going to Hyderabad for some political rally--I dont know what year--maybe 85/86. It was attacked on way by Pashtun community. That was the last stray. The Mohajirs in Karachi were afraid of the Afghan Pashtun coming loaded with lethal weaponry; the Mohajirs were a mercantile community and I remember growing up that violence was done using knives in karachi or occasionally pistols. They were no match to the Afghan Pashtuns--Lord knows how much of those weapons were given by the CIA to fight the Soviets.

After the attack on the MQM convoy, the next day the Pashtun gatekeeper for my Karachi University department said something like 'The attack was justified because the Mohajirs were dancing naked on their buses in front of the Pashtun houses along the way'.

This is not accusing anyone or any community. Those were the days. 40 years ago!
You should check out Raftar TV on YouTube. Lots of documentaries on all these topics.
 
A coalition government? Any idea?
 
پورے پنجاب سے کوئ بھی
کنڈیڈیٹ فروخت ھوا تو ورکرز کا قافلہ لیکر اس کو نشان عبرت بنائنگے ھم نے زندگيوں پر کھیل کر میدان مار لیا ہے
Sher afzal marwat

Marwat Saab not coming Slow 😁
 
So instead of rigging to give PMLN a strong mandate, PDM 2.0 seems to be the chosen option of establishments rigging. Beyond stupidity given how terrible their performance was post IK ouster. At least a strong PML N mandate would allow them to make some reforms in face of public anger.

This scenario will inflame tensions even more and lead to early elections (1-2 years).

PDM part 2 will be nothing but an utter disaster, PDM term part 1 was bad enough, political stability is extremely critical at this stage but it seems unknown forces haven't got thier heads out of the sand.
 

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