Remittances from Overseas Pakistanis - Updates

[PakFactor]

True, under the current circumstances people are holding back. If the powers that be wait to long, many overseas Pakistanis that can spare to send money will mentally make the leap to invest elsewhere and get use to remitting less. Costs overseas are also increasing and many are less able to send as much back, but even beyond ROI, many find a sense of purpose, especially in their mid to later careers or post retirement to see if they can do well for the country of their birth or of their forefathers.

Remit money as well as knowledge.

I’m pricing in a government coming to power the people respect (and trust enough), sooner or later, and how that could be utilized to solve some of the mess; a catalyst to realize the fruits of early reforms, low hanging fruits.

One element of this could be bring back some companies that moved to the gulf, for ease of doing business reasons, bring dollars into Pakistan and circulating in Pakistan rather then in an escrow account in a gulf country.

Part of this would also be building back Pakistan’s political influence, especially in the west, by overseas Pakistanis, instead of remitting directly, making western joint ventures, that overseas Pakistanis lead but use western tech, to improve Pakistani industries. Such as the BNSF example I gave, but also in modern agriculture, such as from the Netherlands, a world leader in crop yield. The increased trade with the west could help boost exports and open other more Pakistanis to emigrate to the west and create a virtuous cycle. This would also mitigate the risk of western governments putting sanctions on Pakistan for things like FATF, in the way India’s growth has made many western governments weigh the interests of economics over selective application of principles.

Pakistan is so under developed and with a population of 250 million, set to go to 500 million in 30-40 years. With the right investment, Pakistan could actually make use of that large population, turning it from a burden for the government into an attractive opportunities most countries of the world would want to get access to. For example, with such a large population in a relatively compact area, it would make more sense to build high capacity infrastructure. Sure we would like to do it all ourselves, but being in foreign partner in the higher tech elements of many areas, in the form of ToT joint ventures would move us up the tech ladder and give these companies high returns in one of the few places where population is growing and hopefully the government is stable and focused on economics.

If these Indicators are there, even low ROI initially for overseas Pakistani could turn into healthy ROI, but also respect in their local communities, and elevated social standing. Many people in previous generations build large homes to show off to the communities, but many for here homes sit dormant. But what if these overseas Pakistani got community recognition from building a local chain of food storage facilities or the local industrial infrastructure alongside the railways. Earning them money but also status in their native locales.

Finally, overseas Pakistanis are the most likely people to be convinced once they earn a profit to reinvest most of it back into Pakistan. Reinvest into local R&D, reinvest into infrastructure they need to support to growth of their business and reinvest into the local education system to create the talent they will need to Jee their businesses competitive globally. Many overseas Pakistan, especially in the west, that are able to afford to send investment levels of money back, probably would by then, have western citizenship, a home, and their kids on track in their education. They would mostly be investing in their adopted countries for their retirements, but would be “diversifying” to invest into Pakistan.

Let me put it simply: my investments in Pakistan are down 40% due to the currency drop. I hold assets and their maintenance and upkeep costs, along with taxes and other fees paid. If situations don't improve, we will be in the red zone after three years.

This was, for me, the last stint of investing in Pakistan.

As the saying goes, once bitten, twice shy. I don't make mistakes after the first time.

 

[PakFactor]

Pakistan’s remittance inflow stands at $3bn in July, up 48% year-on-year​

• On monthly basis, inflow down 5%
• Amount from Saudi Arabia remains highest at $761mn

BR
August 9, 2024

Inflow of overseas workers’ remittances clocked in at nearly $3 billion in July, a massive 48% higher on a year-on-year basis when compared with $2.03 billion in the same month of the previous year, showed data released on Friday by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Remittance inflows in Pakistan clocked in at $2.995 billion in July 2024, 5% lower on a month-on-month basis when compared to $3.158 billion in June 2024.

The amount is the “highest ever for the month of July,” said brokerage house Topline Securities.

Home remittances play a significant role in supporting the country’s external account, stimulating Pakistan’s economic activity as well as supplementing disposable incomes of remittance-dependent households.

Back in June, the World Bank in its report ‘Migration and Development Brief 40’ expected remittances in Pakistan to recover and grow at about 7% to reach $28 billion in (calendar year) 2024 and increase another 4% to about $30 billion in 2025.

However, Pakistan collected $30.3 billion in fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24), 10.7% higher on a year-on-year basis.

Breakdown of remittances

Overseas Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia remitted the largest amount in July 2024 as they sent $761 million during the month. The amount declined by 6% on a monthly basis, but was 56% up than the $487 million sent by the expatriates in the same month of the previous year.

Inflows from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) also declined 7% on a monthly basis, from $654 million in June to $611 million in July. However, on a yearly basis, remittances improved by 94%, as compared to $315 million reported in same month last year.

Remittances from the United Kingdom amounted to $443 million during the month, a decrease of 9% compared to $487 million in June 2024.

Meanwhile, remittances from the European Union improved nearly 6% month-on-month as they amounted to $351 million in July 2024. Overseas Pakistanis in the US sent $300 million in July 2024, a month-on-month decrease of 7%.

This is mostly due to the influx of Pakistanis in the GCC sending funds home, along with the rest sending extra funds due to inflationary pressure.

 

[FuturePAF]

This is mostly due to the influx of Pakistanis in the GCC sending funds home, along with the rest sending extra funds due to inflationary pressure.

This will perhaps become the divide, the GCC diaspora, which knows they will have to go back to Pakistan and the diaspora in the west, which will focus on making their lives in the west and keep their investments and even their retirement plans (housing) even in the west.

It’s true, once bitten twice shy. Which is why I’m sure what you said earlier is how many in the diaspora are looking at the situation in Pakistan, especially the ones that have dealt with doing business in Pakistan in recent years.

The Pakistani government mindset, from what I’ve gathered is, is they want a member of the public, local or diaspora, to do all the work and hand over the credit to them, they way they are trying to do with Arshad Nadeem.

Remittances may go up, especially from the GCC, in proportion to population increase and currency differences, because that population has to come back eventually. But the ones that require an enabling environment, in these times of higher cost of living in the west, will have to be incentivized to come back and even that will take years to build back trust.

I know a member of one of the “22 families” that use to be large industrialists in Pakistan, pre-Bhutto, and he doesn’t look at investing back in Pakistan all these decades later. I’m waiting to see when he’s ready to invest, to be my barometer, to invest more seriously into Pakistan.

 

[PakFactor]

This will perhaps become the divide, the GCC diaspora, which knows they will have to go back to Pakistan and the diaspora in the west, which will focus on making their lives in the west and keep their investments and even their retirement plans (housing) even in the west.

It’s true, once bitten twice shy. Which is why I’m sure what you said earlier is how many in the diaspora are looking at the situation in Pakistan, especially the ones that have dealt with doing business in Pakistan in recent years.

The Pakistani government mindset, from what I’ve gathered is, is they want a member of the public, local or diaspora, to do all the work and hand over the credit to them, they way they are trying to do with Arshad Nadeem.

Remittances may go up, especially from the GCC, in proportion to population increase and currency differences, because that population has to come back eventually. But the ones that require an enabling environment, in these times of higher cost of living in the west, will have to be incentivized to come back and even that will take years to build back trust.

I know a member of one of the “22 families” that use to be large industrialists in Pakistan, pre-Bhutto, and he doesn’t look at investing back in Pakistan all these decades later. I’m waiting to see when he’s ready to invest, to be my barometer, to invest more seriously into Pakistan.

First, Arshad Nadeem, you might've read my sentiments in another thread; it's humiliating to see how they are trying to score a political victory without doing any heavy lifting. As the old saying from JFK goes, "Victory has a hundred fathers, and defeat is an orphan," which can be applied in this case. The less I say about the N-League and PPP kutta ka pilla(s), the better.

The landscape is slowly changing for the diaspora in the GCC, as I have a sizable family there and some who shifted to the UK from the GCC; they are slowly bringing in their families and are willing to take the head tax hit to educate their kids in Western-style schools and ensure proper safety. This will allow the kids to potentially go to Europe or North America for further studies and a step toward permanent migration. Eventually, they will leave as their counterparts who went directly to the West.

This is just a temporary bump for the next few years, but it will calm down. The GCC is slowly implementing the Azad Visa concept, in which you can apply without a kafil to headhunt for a job without being bound to a local Arab. Many Pakistanis have left through this process. One of my own employees from Karachi went this route and is working for me in Saudi Arabia. The only problem with this is that the work you get could be short-term. But slowly, GCC is also banning Pakistanis, in preference for others like Africans, Indians, and Bengalis.

Just look at this how a certain class of Pakistanis are screwing it for the law-abiding ones.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1851712/beggars-heading-to-gulf-under-strict-scrutiny-at-airports

I work closely with the Haroon-Saigol Family, especially the Saigol side. They, too, are shifting overseas and are in the process of downsizing in Pakistan. They are slowly settling their kids and grandkids in the UK, and some members are recently making trips to the State of Indiana.

My advice would be not to invest in Pakistan. Even if the situation improves, you don't know how fast it can deteriorate and cause a loss to your Exchequer. The best place to invest and grow, and you know you have the rule of law and security, is the United States, bar none. When you have Allah and America side by side, you need nothing else.

 

[amuqeetk]

Tell them ok try it let's see how dubai runs without pakistanis they can import as many Indians they want in return let's see what happens

they will thrive dont worry

 

[FuturePAF]

First, Arshad Nadeem, you might've read my sentiments in another thread; it's humiliating to see how they are trying to score a political victory without doing any heavy lifting. As the old saying from JFK goes, "Victory has a hundred fathers, and defeat is an orphan," which can be applied in this case. The less I say about the N-League and PPP kutta ka pilla(s), the better.

The landscape is slowly changing for the diaspora in the GCC, as I have a sizable family there and some who shifted to the UK from the GCC; they are slowly bringing in their families and are willing to take the head tax hit to educate their kids in Western-style schools and ensure proper safety. This will allow the kids to potentially go to Europe or North America for further studies and a step toward permanent migration. Eventually, they will leave as their counterparts who went directly to the West.

This is just a temporary bump for the next few years, but it will calm down. The GCC is slowly implementing the Azad Visa concept, in which you can apply without a kafil to headhunt for a job without being bound to a local Arab. Many Pakistanis have left through this process. One of my own employees from Karachi went this route and is working for me in Saudi Arabia. The only problem with this is that the work you get could be short-term. But slowly, GCC is also banning Pakistanis, in preference for others like Africans, Indians, and Bengalis.

Just look at this how a certain class of Pakistanis are screwing it for the law-abiding ones.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1851712/beggars-heading-to-gulf-under-strict-scrutiny-at-airports

I work closely with the Haroon-Saigol Family, especially the Saigol side. They, too, are shifting overseas and are in the process of downsizing in Pakistan. They are slowly settling their kids and grandkids in the UK, and some members are recently making trips to the State of Indiana.

My advice would be not to invest in Pakistan. Even if the situation improves, you don't know how fast it can deteriorate and cause a loss to your Exchequer. The best place to invest and grow, and you know you have the rule of law and security, is the United States, bar none. When you have Allah and America side by side, you need nothing else.

The more the merrier, please come to the US, and keep going past the GCC, if you can. This is indeed the best place to invest. The first 10 years will be an adjustment, if your young enough, and if your older, at least you will be giving your kids a good chance at a decent life.

Dubai is not what it once was.

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I have been keeping an eye on investment potential for decades now in Pakistan, but as I settle into family life, I can’t keep chasing the elusive dream of a reformed Pakistan for much longer. I have my friend as a barometer, and have my own timelines, for where I want to be in my career and what I want to achieve as a whole, in my life time.

What Arshad Nadeem also reaffirmed for many of us in the diaspora was, our individual effort, if world class, will speak for itself, and no bareing will be placed on our ethnicity.

Much has been spoken about the “International Indian”, ethnically Indian, but culturally global. Now seems to be the time for the “International Pakistani”, to make his or her mark on the globe, and wait till good business sense prevails back in Pakistan to realize what they have lost.

 

[PakFactor]

The more the merrier, please come to the US, and keep going past the GCC, if you can. This is indeed the best place to invest. The first 10 years will be an adjustment, if your young enough, and if your older, at least you will be giving your kids a good chance at a decent life.

Dubai is not what it once was.

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I have been keeping an eye on investment potential for decades now in Pakistan, but as I settle into family life, I can’t keep chasing the elusive dream of a reformed Pakistan for much longer. I have my friend as a barometer, and have my own timelines, for where I want to be in my career and what I want to achieve as a whole, in my life time.

What Arshad Nadeem also reaffirmed for many of us in the diaspora was, our individual effort, if world class, will speak for itself, and no baring will be placed on our ethnicity.

Much has been spoken about the “International Indian”, ethnically Indian, but culturally global. Now seems to be the time for the “International Pakistani”, to make his or her mark on the globe, and wait till good business sense prevails back in Pakistan to realize what they have lost.

I'm Pakistani-American, and I've been here since 1989 when I was two. I'm based in Chicago. I never updated the flags on this forum yet.

The problem with Project Dubai is that they want to be the Switzerland of the Middle East, which is fine, but eventually the hammer will come down and money could flee. Behind the scenes the US and Europe struck an agreement for them to release information on their citizens. It was placed on the Gray List in 2022 and just removed several weeks ago in 2024; they learned quickly they couldn't fight the kingmakers.

 

[FuturePAF]

I'm Pakistani-American, and I've been here since 1989 when I was two. I'm based in Chicago. I never updated the flags on this forum yet.

Nice, been here since the mid 80s, came as a young kid as well. So you understand. Yes, Pakistan is the land of our birth but there is only so long you can look back in hope. Beyond family, what is there really left for us in Pakistan to do, especially when the country acts like it doesn’t want us, except as a cash cow. It doesn’t even work like a normal country, even if we wanted to invest there, the hurdles, the bribery, the potential years long court cases to get anything done. It’s quicksand.

Btw, remember the carefree 90s, the Pakistani community and its melas.

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[PakFactor]

@FuturePAF

Nice, been here since the mid 80s, came as a young kid as well. So you understand. Yes, Pakistan is the land of our birth but there is only so long you can look back in hope. Beyond family, what is there really left for us in Pakistan to do, especially when the country acts like it doesn’t want us, except as a cash cow. It doesn’t even work like a normal country, even if we wanted to invest there, the hurdles, the bribery, the potential years long court cases to get anything done. It’s quicksand.

Btw, remember the carefree 90s, the Pakistani community and its melas.

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I remember those wonderful times, my brother. In the end, only memories remain. The 1990s were truly special.

Same for my family, there is nothing that remains that can pull me back and have me grounded there; even when I took my wife to Pakistan to see her sisters and mother, I felt depressed deep down in my soul. I wanted to flee and just prayed those three weeks would go by quickly. It was a feeling completely different than when I got married in 2013 and stayed for two months.

This country is an ungrateful nation by its very nature, you do good, and it'll kill you, do nothing, and it'll kill you. In our so-called national hero Abdul Qadeer Khan's interview, you can feel the regret in his voice when he reminisced about the life he could have had if he had stayed in Europe with his wife and kids. Even though Arshad Nadeem mentioned he got offers from overseas and refused them so he could represent Pakistan, he too will find out how ungrateful this nation can be, and he'll be just a statistic.

If I remember correctly, you live in New York?

 

[PakFactor]

The more the merrier, please come to the US, and keep going past the GCC, if you can. This is indeed the best place to invest. The first 10 years will be an adjustment, if your young enough, and if your older, at least you will be giving your kids a good chance at a decent life.

Dubai is not what it once was.

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I have been keeping an eye on investment potential for decades now in Pakistan, but as I settle into family life, I can’t keep chasing the elusive dream of a reformed Pakistan for much longer. I have my friend as a barometer, and have my own timelines, for where I want to be in my career and what I want to achieve as a whole, in my life time.

What Arshad Nadeem also reaffirmed for many of us in the diaspora was, our individual effort, if world class, will speak for itself, and no bareing will be placed on our ethnicity.

Much has been spoken about the “International Indian”, ethnically Indian, but culturally global. Now seems to be the time for the “International Pakistani”, to make his or her mark on the globe, and wait till good business sense prevails back in Pakistan to realize what they have lost.

Dubai's attempt to diversify from its oil economy, like other GCCs, is a significant move. Projections show a decline in Chinese consumption, which could lead to increased costs in Western markets. Russia is a factor in China, but it's not having as significant an impact as others think. The Chinese are using Russia to build their strategic petroleum reserve, but nothing else.

Expanding real estate is a double-edged sword, as real estate doesn't give productivity. As we've seen from the Pakistan Housing Society schemes, they do not yield long-term economic results. Let's not forget several years ago, Dubai had to pump funds into the real estate sector to ward off a collapse. Then, foreigners pump money into real estate, making it unaffordable for the ordinary individual by being squeezed out financially. However, this could force wealthy individuals to look elsewhere as they know a crash will sink them for good.

I will let you in on this as I deal with high-net-worth individuals for my investment fund. We also manage multiple family offices, including my own family's office. Can a small territory in India turn into the next Dubai? A project is underway among several wealthy Indian-Americans and Dubai-based Indians, and they used their contacts with Modi to remove people, shift them elsewhere, and shut down human rights advocates. The ultimate goal would be to shift Indian wealth and talent back home.

 

[ghazi52]

More Pakistani moving out, may be one of the reason for increase.

Top 20 countries losing people to emigration in 2023:

1. Pakistan: -1,620,000
2. Sudan: -1,350,000
3. India: -979,000
4. China: -568,000
5. Bangladesh: -550,000
6. Nepal: -410,000
7. Turkey: -318,000
8. Ukraine: -300,000
9. Brazil: -240,000
10. Philippines: -164,000
11. Greece: -159,000
12. Uganda: -126,000
13. Venezuela: -113,000
14. Mexico: -101,000
15. Zimbabwe: -97,000
16. Azerbaijan: -84,000
17. Vietnam: -82,000
18. Nigeria: -58,000
19. Afghanistan: -49,000
20. Mali: -40,000

According to the UN World Population Prospects.
4:49 AM · Aug 11, 2024

 

[FuturePAF]

@FuturePAF


I remember those wonderful times, my brother. In the end, only memories remain. The 1990s were truly special.

Same for my family, there is nothing that remains that can pull me back and have me grounded there; even when I took my wife to Pakistan to see her sisters and mother, I felt depressed deep down in my soul. I wanted to flee and just prayed those three weeks would go by quickly. It was a feeling completely different than when I got married in 2013 and stayed for two months.

This country is an ungrateful nation by its very nature, you do good, and it'll kill you, do nothing, and it'll kill you. In our so-called national hero Abdul Qadeer Khan's interview, you can feel the regret in his voice when he reminisced about the life he could have had if he had stayed in Europe with his wife and kids. Even though Arshad Nadeem mentioned he got offers from overseas and refused them so he could represent Pakistan, he too will find out how ungrateful this nation can be, and he'll be just a statistic.

If I remember correctly, you live in New York?

I do indeed live in New York, and as I grow older I really can’t see myself or my family living anywhere else.

Never been to the Windy City. Always wanted to visit, especially the north side. No many good movies, the John Hughes movies and Home Alone.

 

[FuturePAF]

Dubai's attempt to diversify from its oil economy, like other GCCs, is a significant move. Projections show a decline in Chinese consumption, which could lead to increased costs in Western markets. Russia is a factor in China, but it's not having as significant an impact as others think. The Chinese are using Russia to build their strategic petroleum reserve, but nothing else.

Expanding real estate is a double-edged sword, as real estate doesn't give productivity. As we've seen from the Pakistan Housing Society schemes, they do not yield long-term economic results. Let's not forget several years ago, Dubai had to pump funds into the real estate sector to ward off a collapse. Then, foreigners pump money into real estate, making it unaffordable for the ordinary individual by being squeezed out financially. However, this could force wealthy individuals to look elsewhere as they know a crash will sink them for good.

I will let you in on this as I deal with high-net-worth individuals for my investment fund. We also manage multiple family offices, including my own family's office. Can a small territory in India turn into the next Dubai? A project is underway among several wealthy Indian-Americans and Dubai-based Indians, and they used their contacts with Modi to remove people, shift them elsewhere, and shut down human rights advocates. The ultimate goal would be to shift Indian wealth and talent back home.

It’s only makes logical sense, most of Dubai exists because of the inefficiencies of many nations.

If Pakistan were smaller it wouldn’t to attract back its GCC entrepreneurs to rebuild Karachi and jump start Gwadar, but alas we have people in charge with no long term vision, only pump and dump specialists.

 

[SaadH]

@FuturePAF


I remember those wonderful times, my brother. In the end, only memories remain. The 1990s were truly special.

Same for my family, there is nothing that remains that can pull me back and have me grounded there; even when I took my wife to Pakistan to see her sisters and mother, I felt depressed deep down in my soul. I wanted to flee and just prayed those three weeks would go by quickly. It was a feeling completely different than when I got married in 2013 and stayed for two months.

This country is an ungrateful nation by its very nature, you do good, and it'll kill you, do nothing, and it'll kill you. In our so-called national hero Abdul Qadeer Khan's interview, you can feel the regret in his voice when he reminisced about the life he could have had if he had stayed in Europe with his wife and kids. Even though Arshad Nadeem mentioned he got offers from overseas and refused them so he could represent Pakistan, he too will find out how ungrateful this nation can be, and he'll be just a statistic.

If I remember correctly, you live in New York?

Same here came as a pre-teen kid in the late 80's, spend every summer in Pakistan and didn't want to come back to US until last time couple of times. Couldn't wait to get out and eversince the jamedar/wadera utopia is in full swing, have no desire to go back.

 

[FuturePAF]

It’s only makes logical sense, most of Dubai exists because of the inefficiencies of many nations.

If Pakistan were smaller it wouldn’t to attract back its GCC entrepreneurs to rebuild Karachi and jump start Gwadar, but alas we have people in charge with no long term vision, only pump and dump specialists.

*smarter (not smaller)