Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mangekyo]

Ok...did Rouhani and Larijani criticize the Guardian council? They said people who are unelected should not decide who can run for office or not. So, if we had people from within the system speaking up then there is a chance of reform happening...once the Guardian council is dissolved then we can move to the 2nd stage. Now, you ask why would they allow it? Well they would allow it because if they don't they may have an insurrection on their hand or worse... If the insurrectionists win those people who didn't want to reform will have to leave Iran....because the people will be looking to try them, jail them, or worse. So, the answer to why they would do it is that they need to do it for their own survival. Do you know what I mean? If they continue on this road...the IRI will slowly die, the people will get angrier every year, till it spills over into the street...then they become fugitives. Can you imagine what would happen to those judges? What would happen to Basij commanders? You know what will happen to them.
So in my mind, they need to reform to save themselves.

I see what you mean, but there are so many conditions that would all need to line up.

The way I see it, Khamenei would have to voluntarily step down or die, and a new Supreme Leader who is genuinely reformist would have to be chosen. Someone like Rouhani. That would open the door to dismantling the Guardian Council and allowing real reforms.

IRGC have to accept losing most of their power and agree to stay loyal to a reformist Supreme Leader.

I agree with you that survival instinct can push elites to act, but historically, authoritarian regimes wait too long. And we’re not just politically fragile, we’re broke, weak, and already facing environmental disasters, water shortages, electricity blackouts, and growing security issues. On top of that, we might even face a new war soon. And we can’t ignore the oligarchs who control the economy and profit from sanctions-busting, along with the corrupt thugs in high positions who have been stealing our oil wealth and state resources for decades. For them, the current system is their survival and avoiding jail. Real reform would not only strip their power but likely expose them to prosecution. And they are not just businessmen, they are power brokers, politicians, clerics and military figures

And even if these reforms actually happen, we have no leverage against U.S. sanctions, so there’s no guarantee they would be lifted.

 

[Immortals]

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interesting: while Russia/China cannot block the reimposition of UNSC resolutions against Iran, they can block the operational mechanics of UNSC monitoring/enforcement of these sanctions, since those committees can be vetoed. meaning the sanctions will remain on paper only and will struggle to be enforced.

When did Trump exit JCPOA? Since then how much money have Russia/China invested in Iran?

If they didn’t invest when sanctions didn’t exist, no amount of legal loopholes will convince them or their private sector to invest in Iran post SnapBack.

 

[StrategicBear]

Yes, you're absolutely right.
China will eventually surpass the US in science, economy and technology, but it is the US soft power that will help them maintain their hegemony.

China vs the US is like a high school where the US is a rich, tall and muscular kid who gets top school grades but is also extroverted and quite popular and is seen as super cool, while China is the nerd of the class that is a close second or sometimes even the best but has few friends and is introverted.

The main power of the West is not its military machine, it is its soft power. And that's going to stay with us for a long time. Probably more than 30 years. Not to mention that the US controls the internet, and China cannot compete with that. US controls our data and digital fingerprint, but China, not so much.

But even so, the future of the West looks increasingly Less White when more Muslims and Minorities increase in population in the UK, France and USA over the next 30 years and "becomes part of the ruling government".

 

[kastor ville]

I see what you mean, but there are so many conditions that would all need to line up.

The way I see it, Khamenei would have to voluntarily step down or die, and a new Supreme Leader who is genuinely reformist would have to be chosen. Someone like Rouhani. That would open the door to dismantling the Guardian Council and allowing real reforms.

IRGC have to accept losing most of their power and agree to stay loyal to a reformist Supreme Leader.

I agree with you that survival instinct can push elites to act, but historically, authoritarian regimes wait too long. And we’re not just politically fragile, we’re broke, weak, and already facing environmental disasters, water shortages, electricity blackouts, and growing security issues. On top of that, we might even face a new war soon. And we can’t ignore the oligarchs who control the economy and profit from sanctions-busting, along with the corrupt thugs in high positions who have been stealing our oil wealth and state resources for decades. For them, the current system is their survival and avoiding jail. Real reform would not only strip their power but likely expose them to prosecution. And they are not just businessmen, they are power brokers, politicians, clerics and military figures

And even if these reforms actually happen, we have no leverage against U.S. sanctions, so there’s no guarantee they would be lifted.

All of what you said is true.....but, we will see if they have the intelligence to save themselves or not. Either way, they're dead meat...it just hasn't dawn on them yet.
The Israelis and the Americans, along with the Europeans have it in for them....they're coming, whether they realize it or not....and they will keep pressuring the poor Iranian population till they rise up. So, again if they're smart and they want to save themselves they need to reform.......or the US/Israel will do it for them.

 

[Shafagh]

I get your point completely. But my question is: how is that actually going to happen?

How and who's going to “remove Khamenei from political power” and turn him into a symbolic figure? Who is going to allow free elections and let people truly run for office? Who is going to stop the IRGC from interfering in policy when they are one of the main power centers that benefits from the current setup?

It’s not that I disagree with you. I just genuinely don’t see the mechanism. The system isn’t built to reform itself in such a fundamental way, and I haven’t seen anyone explain how these changes could realistically be forced through from within.

Grassroots movements man. Somebody is going to have to start an organization, start a podcast. Iran needs a Charlie Kirk or Nick Fuentes to rise up and rally young people.

That person will have alot of work to do, researching, studying, creating content that highlights Iranian nationalism with a blend of powerful Islamic figures.

Next, go to the communities that comprise of the I.R. supporters, catch the youth and start introducing them stories of Iranian power, Iranian successes. Use stories about Qasem Soleimani or even Mohsen Hojaji. Make people proud again. Start fundraising, create a national banner, unite peoples from all socio-economic circles, from all walks of life, religious, non religious etc.

Then slowly start showing the destruction to the currently caused by the regime. Don't just attack the regime. Discuss Iran's problems and how they happened. Be a solutions person.

Start building networks with younger, intelligent people in I.R. institutions. Build connections with families of military officers and soldiers who lost their lives in the war with Israel.

Eventually you gather a strong enough following that people will carry on the banner themselves. If this regime decides it is a threat, hopefully by that time, you will have enough angry and motivated followers, that the people will start to get mean. Whoever does this doesn't need to be the one to take power, but rather the person garnering support for someone or group of leaders. They might even be in I.R. now.

My old worry was is if this regime starts collapsing, these mullahs are going to call up arabs from Iraq to come to Iran to fight for them. As the geopolitical climate has evolved, that seems less likely now.

How many of you actually live in Iran? Are there groups you think you could put your heads together with and start this movement?

 

[kastor ville]

Yes, you're absolutely right.
China will eventually surpass the US in science, economy and technology, but it is the US soft power that will help them maintain their hegemony.

China vs the US is like a high school where the US is a rich, tall and muscular kid who gets top school grades but is also extroverted and quite popular and is seen as super cool, while China is the nerd of the class that is a close second or sometimes even the best but has few friends and is introverted.

The main power of the West is not its military machine, it is its soft power. And that's going to stay with us for a long time. Probably more than 30 years. Not to mention that the US controls the internet, and China cannot compete with that. US controls our data and digital fingerprint, but China, not so much.

I was about to write the same thing....the Chinese are 10x more smarter than the US of the present day.....the reason the US is what it is today is because previously they behaved in such a way it endeared them to the world.....now, they're acting like the new USSR.
China is going about their business correctly, slowly, no bullying, no threats of sanctions or unilateralism.

 

[mangekyo]

Grassroots movements man. Somebody is going to have to start an organization, start a podcast. Iran needs a Charlie Kirk or Nick Fuentes to rise up and rally young people.

That person will have alot of work to do, researching, studying, creating content that highlights Iranian nationalism with a blend of powerful Islamic figures.

Next, go to the communities that comprise of the I.R. supporters, catch the youth and start introducing them stories of Iranian power, Iranian successes. Use stories about Qasem Soleimani or even Mohsen Hojaji. Make people proud again. Start fundraising, create a national banner, unite peoples from all socio-economic circles, from all walks of life, religious, non religious etc.

Then slowly start showing the destruction to the currently caused by the regime. Don't just attack the regime. Discuss Iran's problems and how they happened. Be a solutions person.

Start building networks with younger, intelligent people in I.R. institutions. Build connections with families of military officers and soldiers who lost their lives in the war with Israel.

Eventually you gather a strong enough following that people will carry on the banner themselves. If this regime decides it is a threat, hopefully by that time, you will have enough angry and motivated followers, that the people will start to get mean. Whoever does this doesn't need to be the one to take power, but rather the person garnering support for someone or group of leaders. They might even be in I.R. now.

My old worry was is if this regime starts collapsing, these mullahs are going to call up arabs from Iraq to come to Iran to fight for them. As the geopolitical climate has evolved, that seems less likely now.

How many of you actually live in Iran? Are there groups you think you could put your heads together with and start this movement?

There was a real chance to do this ten years ago, during the fight against ISIS. If a nationalist movement had been started then, by 2018 when we defeated ISIS it would already have been strong. We would have had unity, pride, and momentum, the perfect foundation to push for reforms and rally people behind a national vision. It makes you wonder why the U.S. decided to kill Soleimani exactly then, and whether someone inside the IRI might have had something to do with it?

It would be an incredibly difficult path now. Whoever tries this will likely be executed long before they get momentum. And uniting secular, religious, monarchist, reformist, nationalist, etc., would be nearly impossible.

There is very little that truly unites Iranians today, even among religious people. And it wasn’t just Khomeini’s speech bragging about ending 2,500 years of Persian empire or Khamenei dismissing the Achaemenids as nothing to be proud of. It was a decades-long process of systematically erasing Iranian national identity, rewriting history, and mocking everything pre-Islamic. And ironically, they even managed to erase Islamic identity for many people.

This kind of identity rebuilding takes a very long time, something we simply do not have. Our fate right now lies in the hands of whatever the U.S. decides to do with us. Whatever leverage we once had for negotiation is gone. We are left with no allies, no money and no real options.

 

[ShapurII]

**HUGE DEVELOPMENT**

نامه ۷۱ نماینده به سران قوا: سلاح هسته‌ای بسازیم و نگه داریم؛ استفاده از آن بحث دیگری است / تفاوت شرایط می‌تواند موجب تغییر حکم ممنوعیت تولید سلاح اتمی شود

بیش از ۷۰ نماینده مجلس در نامه ای به شورای‌عالی امنیت ملی و روسای سه قوه با اشاره به ضرورت بازنگری در دکترین دفاعی ایران تاکید کردند: به‌کارگیری سلاح هسته‌ای مصداق حرمت فتوای رهبری معظم انقلاب در سال ۱۳۸۹ بوده اما ساخت و نگهداری به‌عنوان بازدارندگی بحث دیگری است.

www.entekhab.ir

بیش از ۷۰ نماینده مجلس در نامه ای به شورای‌عالی امنیت ملی و روسای سه قوه با اشاره به ضرورت بازنگری در دکترین دفاعی ایران تاکید کردند: به‌کارگیری سلاح هسته‌ای مصداق حرمت فتوای رهبری معظم انقلاب در سال ۱۳۸۹ بوده اما ساخت و نگهداری به‌عنوان بازدارندگی بحث دیگری است.

Translation: Over 70 Parliament Members have sent a letter to the National Security Council and the Heads of 3 Bodies (Executive, Judiciary and Legislation) to review the fatwah against nuclear weapons, mentioning that the use of nuclear weapons is haram but building and storing them for deterrence is a different issue.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Iran's modern history has repeatedly followed the same pattern.
They believed that by overthrowing the Qajar dynasty through the Constitutional Revolution and improving relations with the United States, they could achieve development.
They thought that by removing Mossadegh and establishing a pro-American monarchy, they could improve relations with the United States and achieve development.
In the later years of Khomeini's rule, the right-wing believed that by expelling the left-wing through a palace coup and improving relations with the United States, they could achieve development.
This time, the left-wing, returning to politics under the banner of reformists, believed that by improving relations with the United States, they could achieve development.
They thought that by signing the JCPOA, they could improve relations with the United States and achieve development.
Now, there are those who argue that by completely surrendering, they can improve relations with the United States and achieve development.

Allow me to speak bluntly from the perspective of a foreigner.
How many times do you Iranians need to fail before you learn your lesson?
China and Pakistan, without harboring illusions about the West, first conducted nuclear tests to safeguard their independence and then focused on growing their economies.
Enough is enough. If you don't learn from history, your country will vanish from it.

 

[ShapurII]

They believed that by overthrowing the Qajar dynasty through the Constitutional Revolution and improving relations with the United States, they could achieve development.

The Constitutional Revolution had nothing to do with improving relations with the United States. It was about restricting the power of the King because the Qajars had lost about one-third of our territories already and the last Qajar kings were pretty much like the Islamic Republic. Weak and pathetic. People wanted some sort of supervision over the decisions made by the monarch.

They thought that by removing Mossadegh and establishing a pro-American monarchy, they could improve relations with the United States and achieve development.

Wrong again. The 1953 coup was a coup instigated by the CIA and MI6. People did not remove Mossadegh from power. Also, the establishment of the Pahlavi dynasty has nothing to do with this event at all. It happened long before it. The monarchy was passed down to MR Pahlavi through inheritance after the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran in the World War II.

In the later years of Khomeini's rule, the right-wing believed that by expelling the left-wing through a palace coup and improving relations with the United States, they could achieve development.

It was the right-wing that took the US staff at their embassy hostage. I have no idea what you are referring to to be honest.

 

[BigMela2onin]

**HUGE DEVELOPMENT**

نامه ۷۱ نماینده به سران قوا: سلاح هسته‌ای بسازیم و نگه داریم؛ استفاده از آن بحث دیگری است / تفاوت شرایط می‌تواند موجب تغییر حکم ممنوعیت تولید سلاح اتمی شود

بیش از ۷۰ نماینده مجلس در نامه ای به شورای‌عالی امنیت ملی و روسای سه قوه با اشاره به ضرورت بازنگری در دکترین دفاعی ایران تاکید کردند: به‌کارگیری سلاح هسته‌ای مصداق حرمت فتوای رهبری معظم انقلاب در سال ۱۳۸۹ بوده اما ساخت و نگهداری به‌عنوان بازدارندگی بحث دیگری است.

www.entekhab.ir

بیش از ۷۰ نماینده مجلس در نامه ای به شورای‌عالی امنیت ملی و روسای سه قوه با اشاره به ضرورت بازنگری در دکترین دفاعی ایران تاکید کردند: به‌کارگیری سلاح هسته‌ای مصداق حرمت فتوای رهبری معظم انقلاب در سال ۱۳۸۹ بوده اما ساخت و نگهداری به‌عنوان بازدارندگی بحث دیگری است.

Translation: Over 70 Parliament Members have sent a letter to the National Security Council and the Heads of 3 Bodies (Executive, Judiciary and Legislation) to review the fatwah against nuclear weapons, mentioning that the use of nuclear weapons is haram but building and storing them for deterrence is a different issue.

"Review" = No change
And store them for deterrence? How is it a deterrence if you say you will never use them?

 

[BigMela2onin]

In my opinion, our fate is no longer in our own hands. The only thing that could save us now is some massive distraction, a natural disaster, a global crisis, divine intervention, whatever you want to call it, something that takes attention away from us completely for a decade or two and gives us the chance to quietly rebuild.

Unfortunately, that is correct. Only a miracle can stop the balkanization process now.

It’s not that I disagree with you. I just genuinely don’t see the mechanism. The system isn’t built to reform itself in such a fundamental way, and I haven’t seen anyone explain how these changes could realistically be forced through from within.

Nothing other than a military coup or foreign invasion will remove IR. Political power flows out of the barrel of a gun and IR has no capacity or desire to reform.

There is very little that truly unites Iranians today, even among religious people. And it wasn’t just Khomeini’s speech bragging about ending 2,500 years of Persian empire or Khamenei dismissing the Achaemenids as nothing to be proud of. It was a decades-long process of systematically erasing Iranian national identity, rewriting history, and mocking everything pre-Islamic. And ironically, they even managed to erase Islamic identity for many people.

This kind of identity rebuilding takes a very long time, something we simply do not have. Our fate right now lies in the hands of whatever the U.S. decides to do with us. Whatever leverage we once had for negotiation is gone. We are left with no allies, no money and no real options.

You're absolutely correct, at this point it's inevitable Iran will be dissolved like Yugoslavia was. The new micro-states will have to put all their energy into preparing for and surviving climate change. Between climate change and the rampaging jews, west Asia is probably going to become one of the most unlivable regions of Earth in the coming decades. Iran as a unified nation will likely not exist again for many decades to centuries, if ever.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Corruption and partybazi has been part of our govt even before the Shah....all the old countries are or were corrupt. We are no different, the way you change it is by having strong civil institutions....good judges, courts, and laws. If convicted, you lock them up and forfeit their wealth....all of it. This will send a strong message, that we will not tolerate corruption, the issue with this govt is that the people in majlis are all corrupt so no laws like this will ever pass. Heck, read about Ghalibaf, he's the most corrupt SOB in the whole outfit, and he almost became president.

Right you are basically describing why I refer to Iranian society as backwards, it lacks strong civil institutions and a sense of civic duty among the people.

 

[Shafagh]

Iran as a unified nation will likely not exist again for many decades to centuries, if ever.

Man that is exaggeration. It won't be such a catastrophe.

But a solution needs to start happening now. Read my last post on grassroots movement. Somebody needs to do this. Even if it means giving up ballistic missiles. Giving up nuclear program. Iran has a way out, but the window is shutting rapidly.

Netanyahu doesn't want any sort of deal. Trump is willing to ignore him for a deal with Iran.

The nuclear path now is highly unlikely, and the path forward is wracked by risks and dangers that far outweigh any military action by Israel or the U.S. It is time to focus on those things.

The time to start is now. Guys, if you can do something, please try. Do what you can as Iranian citizens.

 

[Shafagh]

There is very little that truly unites Iranians today, even among religious people.

Then you need a war. I would argue now is an opportune time. At the backdrop of the 12 Day War, there is a chance to unite people. They were revved up, together, religious and secular. Iranians need to take a long hard look in the mirror and really review the state of affairs in the country. Is this really what you want to live and die for?

Was this forum always like this? I am sure there were more hardliners. Now there is even daily talk of going back to the western camp. I think alot of Iranians in the west need to consider going back to Iran. It's a time for hard sacrifices, and new thinking, but necessary to preserve the country.

7000 years of civilization will continue.