Bangladesh Socio-Political Crisis 2024

So far, the lady (Ms. Riva Ganguly Das, former High commissioner to BD)

is kind of rehashing the people-people thing I did previously:

Regd the 90% sentiments (that dont have such time surplus for the online realm), it is very early days to crunch qualitative numbers there.....i.e their activities and impressions under a political blanket (how much they know/care and put aside or dont put aside regd that w.r.t larger overall impression of a country/people etc)..

This survey for example (given pre covid, visits from BD citizens to India was around 1.9 million per year and will rebound to that level and surpass it soon:

https://tourism.gov.in/sites/default/files/2020-04/Final%20Report%20on%20Visit%20of%20Nationals%20of%20Bangladesh%20to%20India.pdf
It was interesting to note the overall rating of facilities, host population attitude among the 3 or so sample strata (benapole, maitree rail, dum dum airport combinations etc).

It gave larger sense than say cpl instagram groups I have been following w.r.t say Dr. Shetty hospital in BLR and Bangladesh medical tourists, which again would be skewed very differently to say social media "english conversant 10% vs 10%" groupings...given basic context of the "why"/needs governing the interactions.

I also have followed from time various travel blogs/vlogs both directions too to get a sense of the person-person interactions and their perceptions/reactions etc as they travel in respective otherside host populations. Where frictions arise inevitably, but general positive sense prevails when witness to 90% bulk population that are getting through day to day life with the interesting local curiosities and geniality both ways.

At least I was reminded of it.

Doing the top down "official only" thing is not proper way to handle relations....as you are sampling in very limited way and doing knee jerk coin flips for immensely larger entities that you are excluding from the picture.

It is dereliction of fiduciary authority. Authority always has to be humble to where it has come from and is accountable to.
 
Listening to more of it slowly, its very annoying.

Lot of the Indians are very tone deaf and/or ignorant (or worse indulgent) regarding rules/principles for thee but not for me.

If you are going to go into deep criticism of BNP and Jamat, it can only come credibly to me if you have first applied the same regarding BJP and RSS.

Otherwise it is asserting might = right....and then doing bazaar haggling over debris that has coursed out and washed back onto beach....these shiny objects of distraction away from what could have been if these objects were not broken and scattered in first place by bad thinking + bad action. i.e distraction away from good vs bad.....and rather to look at which mix of good-bad is a bigger pile able to enforce its bad.....and anyone wise sees why power very easily absorbs bad (from the ego of power) compared to the good.

I despise that intensely (the inability to coherently apply good vs bad, moral and ethical principles across the board first so you have proper credibility to argue/discuss)....as this is near 100% of how power among few keeps powerless at each others throats destructively to their detriment through time immemorial, but becoming all the more alarming now with better roads having been charted by better social contract....we are not to drink from same good well that has nourished?...because it becomes too inconvenient and challenging for the laziness+greed+ego that festers in power?

Anyway Joe will be away for a while (busy with stuff on his end) till start of next month. So I will discuss with you folks that want to in meanwhile and later he can chime in too.
 
What a nonsense!

No it is actually true. That is how appointment and recruitments are happening. This has already happened in the appointment of officers to the AG's office. I am a lawyer I know and I don't care whether you believe me or not. A person should be able to criticize the CG without being labeled an Awami Leaguer or RAW agent because isn't that exactly the method of the AL and RAW to silence justified criticism over the last 16 years. It is because of the intolerant attitude of the CG and its blind supporters that the country is already turning against it especially after recent incidents.

Would it be justified for those defending the CG to be labeled MOSSAD and CIA agents and enemies of Islam for what Israel and America is doing in Gaza. If not then why is it happening the other way.
 
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Well, this is a problem.
It is not a problem. This will get settled. Indians always overplay their cards. It is not the first time they are doing this. It is India who has issues with the neighbors, not the other way around.
The main issue is Hasina gave all the data to India. Something needs to be done about it.
 
I read Shashi Tharoor's book "An Era of Darkness" regarding the parliamentary democracy in India. Here, he challenged that the British system of parliamentary democracy currently utilized was never suited for Indian society. It focused more on staying in power rather than governance. He further adds that it has distorted the voting preferences of an electorate that knows which individuals it wants but not which policies to implement. This has resulted in parties that have shifting alliances of individual interests rather than mobilizing a consistent set of ideas in a collective manner. This is the reason why he always advocated for a presidential system. He concludes that the British never had any intention to impart democracy in India. And secondly, the Indians chose the parliamentary system themselves despite suggestions to implement a presidential system by a former British PM Clement Attlee at the time. This current system is responsible for many of the political ills in India, he claims.

I read this right in the run-up of August 5th and cannot help thinking just how eerily familiar the problems we are facing are considering we use the same system. Would a presidential system help mitigate any future autocracy better (if not completely) than a parliamentary one?
The problem is more complex than Shashi seems to have projected (Disclaimer: I haven't read his book, and am going by your account, that I have no reason to suppose to be distorted).
A number of anthropologists, Cohn among them, have pointed out that Indian constitutional arrangements, the resulting type of government, and the habits and social practices of Indians did not align. Without going further, it needs to be pointed out that the Presidential system is equally misaligned with Indian society. <More>
 
Listening to more of it slowly, its very annoying.

Lot of the Indians are very tone deaf and/or ignorant (or worse indulgent) regarding rules/principles for thee but not for me.

If you are going to go into deep criticism of BNP and Jamat, it can only come credibly to me if you have first applied the same regarding BJP and RSS.

Otherwise it is asserting might = right....and then doing bazaar haggling over debris that has coursed out and washed back onto beach....these shiny objects of distraction away from what could have been if these objects were not broken and scattered in first place by bad thinking + bad action. i.e distraction away from good vs bad.....and rather to look at which mix of good-bad is a bigger pile able to enforce its bad.....and anyone wise sees why power very easily absorbs bad (from the ego of power) compared to the good.

I despise that intensely (the inability to coherently apply good vs bad, moral and ethical principles across the board first so you have proper credibility to argue/discuss)....as this is near 100% of how power among few keeps powerless at each others throats destructively to their detriment through time immemorial, but becoming all the more alarming now with better roads having been charted by better social contract....we are not to drink from same good well that has nourished?...because it becomes too inconvenient and challenging for the laziness+greed+ego that festers in power?

Anyway Joe will be away for a while (busy with stuff on his end) till start of next month. So I will discuss with you folks that want to in meanwhile and later he can chime in too.

So, whatever criticism Indians has about BNP and Jamaat from past experiences, they have to move beyond that. By that I don't mean they need to make truce overnight, but to recognize this revolution was people's revolution outside the perimeter of traditional party politics. And the reason it happened because there is new force that has emerged with a new generation of young people.

If you can't see the past BAL, BNP and Jamaat, and continue to claim it was CIA, ISI and China, (first it was funny, now it seems more or less every Indian diplomats and think tankers except for few insinuating or explicitly saying this same thing!) and basically deny the people/this new generation of younglings the agency, everyone is gonna have a problem. Because you are failing at the grassroot to comprehend what happened. Consequently from there, it will only be reactionary polices from India based on faulty understanding. You will likely be unable to formulate sound initiatives and proactive policies.

I think professor Shahab explained that part well, Delhi (current political stablishment and the elite) doesn't seem to have the right idea of the 'people.' Otherwise, it should have had a more clear stance on BAL/Hassina's mass atrocities in July-August (esp. when it is already ousted) and shown more respect toward clearly demonstrated will and aspiration of BD people. That much doesn't require cozing up with BNP and Jamaat. Instead India stuck with sheltering a mass murber, (I hope you personally saw what happened during July-August for what it is, and there is no other way to put it about her) and the most hated person in BD while a large Portion of Indian elites (at least who are publicly talking) continue to attributes all the wrong conspiracies about this revolution. I should add that, I don't even have a problem with 'wait and see' approach. But this is coming from the wrong underlying assumptions/narrative.

In the end of the day, these discussions about unrests, instability in wake of revolution and the direction of the interim government still misses the main question. What was all this really about?

Up to you.
 
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No it is actually true. That is how appointment and recruitments are happening. This has already happened in the appointment of officers to the AG's office. I am a lawyer I know and I don't care whether you believe me or not. A person should be able to criticize the CG without being labeled an Awami Leaguer or RAW agent

Indeed. Still I think you are wrong. The comparison between Yunie Government and whatever BAL had is flawed.
 

@LeonBlack08 @Nilgiri @Joe Shearer @Bengal71 @Strider Thoughts? I found it interesting. Representing several points of views.

That woman speaking at the beginning is an opportunist just like the rest of her colleagues and peers.

I lost a young close family member because she was not able to get Indian medical visa even though her father-in-law was an active Awami Leaguer. This was before 36 July. So these talks of rail links, interconnectivity, blah, blah, blah are all meaningless to me. And I know just how 'competent' those officials on the BD side were regarding negotiations with India under the AL. All deals were one-sided.

This is our country. We are in control. We are nobody's personal property or 'subjects'. If some old farts in New Delhi find that problematic, too bad.

I hope we shred those deals, and talk on security.
 
(having finished the vid finally now, and having done my best to get past the rudeness/snark of that Sushant fellow to do so).

So, whatever criticism Indians has about BNP and Jamaat from past experiences, they have to move beyond that. By that I don't mean they need to make truce overnight, but to recognize this revolution was people's revolution outside the perimeter of traditional party politics. And the reason it happened because there is new force that has emerged with a new generation of young people.

That is like asking BNP and Jamaat to move beyond their impression of what BJP and RSS are, criticism wise.

These are heavily charged poles of the same (social conservative) charge.

Till the nature of that social conservatism changes in both societies to the degrees needed (given how politics then harnesses and transmits this), there is not going to be overnight bridges made in the way that you are maybe wanting to see here.

If you can't see the past BAL, BNP and Jamaat, and continue to claim it was CIA, ISI and China, (first it was funny, now it seems more or less every Indian diplomats and think tankers except for few insinuating or explicitly saying this same thing!) and basically deny the people/this new generation of younglings the agency, everyone is gonna have a problem. Because you are failing at the grassroot to comprehend what happened. Consequently from there, it will only be reactionary polices from India based on faulty understanding. You will likely be unable to formulate sound initiatives and proactive policies.
Again you have to let time play out. I gave 6 month chunk to sensor/analyse for a reason (and then another 6 month after it for 2nd part)....and the BD guest seems to agree its just been a month or so.

Things are heated. People on each side are going to put pegs in peg holes of their making while the heat is there. It requires dissipation and proof of what shapes up in BD credibly.

I think professor Shahab explained that part well, Delhi (current political stablishment and the elite) doesn't seem to have the right idea of the 'people.' Otherwise, it should have had a more clear stance on BAL/Hassina's mass atrocities in July-August (esp. when it is already ousted) and shown more respect toward clearly demonstrated will and aspiration of BD people. That much doesn't require cozing up with BNP and Jamaat. Instead India stuck with sheltering a mass murber, (I hope you personally saw what happened during July-August for what it is, and there is no other way to put it about her) and the most hated person in BD while a large Portion of Indian elites (at least who are publicly talking) continue to attributes all the wrong conspiracies about this revolution. I should add that, I don't even have a problem with 'wait and see' approach. But this is coming from the wrong underlying assumptions/narrative.

First thing first, BD has to get its law and order situation and court process in suitable shape. Then we can analyse if these are acting fairly and not vindictively regarding the prosecution and sentencing of what you already have within reach in BD....and all the human agency involved in all the chain of command during the protest clampdown.....and if there is prosecution upon (apparently still ongoing) revenge crimes afterwards too.

Police and army included. Will a case be brought against those in the army that aided Hasina exit....down to the crew on board the C-130 (they did return to BD after all).

What's the process going to be for the police too? The time to show accountability here through the courts. The army is supposed to continue to be interim Law enforcement in this adhoc way going on right now till thats all done? Is that the army's role?

Every bit of it can then be compared and contrasted with the deaths that occured during the Ershad uprising. What was state of prosecution on that matter....laundered into some generalised corruption charge and political rehabilitation.

What has the history been in BD in general regarding political and criminal exiling and amnesty? and the general state of BD courts role in this....and then what they are like now for it (whats different, whats the same....whats good and whats bad regarding it).

Sorry but India or any country in same position and context.... will have to wait and analyse all these things as they play out and collect larger intel picture of BD population sentiments. Simply can't go by words and promise of good faith credibility by some interim admin (with no elected mandate) that they are some entire complete perfect fiduciary for the population of BD....just because they are on the revolution/uprising side that got one power out to replace it.

Then all the talk of even drafting a new constitution on top. Where is BD going to actually dispense its legal resource in all these competing vectors to do? All the issues with extradition past that if you dont do this stuff credibly:


Study each and every uprising around the world thats happened yourself first. Which country (in similar context as possible) has worked on just words and "trust me bro" (regarding speaking for whole population) regarding 1 month wing and ding with some new "1 year" admin in neighbouring significant country?

This forum already has folks like ukbengali, uksyl, bananarepublic etc that rub against the grain for a reason. You think they are suddenly totally compartmentalised away from various parts of BD population? i keep in touch with BD friend network that only has some similarity intersection with the forum (for a reason) as well, they are long term view types. There is much to be done and proven in the 6 month + 6 month first timeframe, to then properly try make some determination of how the longer term relations are to go between IND-BD....lets put it that way.

The suitable time will have to be let to play out first (and then analysed), as to see how BD organises itself within multi year format for the long run trajectory....forget just 1 year.

In the end of the day, these discussions about unrests, instability in wake of revolution and the direction of the interim government still misses the main question. What was all this really about?

Up to you.
Its just discussions, there are elements of relevance as there are elements of potentialities to the arc thats going to play out.

How the arc actually plays out needs time to play out. I keep repeating this for a reason.

@Joe Shearer can maybe later tell you his angle/perspective regarding time for credibility to base itself. Issues of law are not trivial.
 

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