China Wants a Big Fleet of 5 Aircraft Carriers by 2030

[ety]

How do you know?

They are public knowledge.

 

[BobBiswas]

They are public knowledge.

Nope. There are no public records of number of missiles India possess. All are speculations.

 

[Antonius123]

China does not have enough missiles to hit every point in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan

But has more than enough missiles to hit every military bases in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.

 

[nahtanbob]

But has more than enough missiles to hit every military bases in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.

yeah countries will store all their assets in military bases

 

[Antonius123]

yeah countries will store all their assets in military bases

Of course. It is war, why would they put their military asset at home?

 

[nahtanbob]

Of course. It is war, why would they put their military asset at home?

In war lot of things get dispersed. there is little for China to hit on land. On ocean it is a different story

 

[Hari Sud]

Don’t worry about Chinese aircraft carriers. When push will come to shove, these will not work as usual.

 

[Developereo]

yeah countries will store all their assets in military bases

Isn't there a requirement to put military assets in military sites?

Otherwise a country would be guilty of using civilians as human shields. Probably the only exception would be assets in transit.

 

[ety]

Don’t worry about Chinese aircraft carriers. When push will come to shove, these will not work as usual.

Bring on your Indian carrier anytime, see who is the push over.

 

[gambit]

To be fair, nobody have experience in mass amphibious operations in today's multi-domain environment, left alone potentially against a peer/superior force.

But at least they are devising doctrines and tactics and are not at all shy to invest the resources and manhours to repeatedly test and refine them, which is highly reminiscent of inter-war period USN playing with carriers in Fleet Problem exercises. This deja vu really gives complicated feelings to a old dinosaur like me.

I will grant you that despite D-Day, even the US and allies would hesitate thrice at the thought of taking on an adversary like Taiwan. But that is US and allies. Today, no one feels about Taiwan the way many countries back in WW II felt about the Nazis. That means China is literally alone with no possibility of anyone assisting them to take on Taiwan, whereas, given how Taiwan is economically friendly to many countries, the US have a better than 50/50 odds of convincing enough allies to help Taiwan in some ways, even if not in direct conflict against China.

So back in WW II, the USA and allies invaded but today, the US and allies may help defend against an amphibious invasion. When you never done anything before, expect to incur losses from time to resources. That is with everything, from personal experience to business to war. You will learn in real time. It will take literally months for China to build up the necessary force and that buildup will be visible to the world. What will China do if other countries, besides the US, materially support Taiwan at the same time that China is amassing resources to invade? China can do nothing significant to them. If they are determined to help Taiwan, they will do so despite any threat short of war from China, and everyone know China cannot take on a war before Taiwan. That mean China can only watch impotently as the US, and PROBABLY allies, supplies Taiwan on the east coast before the invasion.

 

[Harbyharb]

I will grant you that despite D-Day, even the US and allies would hesitate thrice at the thought of taking on an adversary like Taiwan. But that is US and allies. Today, no one feels about Taiwan the way many countries back in WW II felt about the Nazis. That means China is literally alone with no possibility of anyone assisting them to take on Taiwan, whereas, given how Taiwan is economically friendly to many countries, the US have a better than 50/50 odds of convincing enough allies to help Taiwan in some ways, even if not in direct conflict against China.

So back in WW II, the USA and allies invaded but today, the US and allies may help defend against an amphibious invasion. When you never done anything before, expect to incur losses from time to resources. That is with everything, from personal experience to business to war. You will learn in real time. It will take literally months for China to build up the necessary force and that buildup will be visible to the world. What will China do if other countries, besides the US, materially support Taiwan at the same time that China is amassing resources to invade? China can do nothing significant to them. If they are determined to help Taiwan, they will do so despite any threat short of war from China, and everyone know China cannot take on a war before Taiwan. That mean China can only watch impotently as the US, and PROBABLY allies, supplies Taiwan on the east coast before the invasion.

I don't think China plans to make assaulting Taiwan their first step in case of a conflict breaking out in the West Pacific. If so, there would not have been emphasis on long range, sea-worthy platforms that would built toward a blue water navy, nor focus on infrastructures to support a OODA loop that would enable strikes that could reach beyond the second island chain and as far out as Guam, but rather sticking to their prior ideology of vast quantities of littoral combatants such as 022 missile boats and 056 light corvettes, as well as amphibious assault crafts dedicated to cross the strait, such as the Zubr which they acquired from what was left of the USSR.

From 2009 to 2012 I would say their build-up is primarily oriented toward alpha strikes, new series of IRBMs and cruise entering service in dozens of launch brigades equipped with missiles that could number in hundreds that can suppress infrastructure within second island chain for weeks, and now the construction of new seagoing fleets centered around carriers and aerial denial combatants are further proof that they have no illusion that it's going to be just between them and Taiwan.

The pictures are alarming but far from clear, but at least we can say that it have not degraded to a point where conflict in inevitable - neither sides are preparing for iminent war, trends of military development and procurement remains steady, fortunately.

 

[guangdongt]

I don't think China plans to make assaulting Taiwan their first step in case of a conflict breaking out in the West Pacific. If so, there would not have been emphasis on long range, sea-worthy platforms that would built toward a blue water navy, nor focus on infrastructures to support a OODA loop that would enable strikes that could reach beyond the second island chain and as far out as Guam, but rather sticking to their prior ideology of vast quantities of littoral combatants such as 022 missile boats and 056 light corvettes, as well as amphibious assault crafts dedicated to cross the strait, such as the Zubr which they acquired from what was left of the USSR.

From 2009 to 2012 I would say their build-up is primarily oriented toward alpha strikes, new series of IRBMs and cruise entering service in dozens of launch brigades equipped with missiles that could number in hundreds that can suppress infrastructure within second island chain for weeks, and now the construction of new seagoing fleets centered around carriers and aerial denial combatants are further proof that they have no illusion that it's going to be just between them and Taiwan.

The pictures are alarming but far from clear, but at least we can say that it have not degraded to a point where conflict in inevitable - neither sides are preparing for iminent war, trends of military development and procurement remains steady, fortunately.

You're right. China will not seek war with the United States unless there is no other way out，because CCP ultimately needs to consider the thoughts of the Chinese people. I'm not joking, although we often joke about the bottom line retreating Because each of us knows that we don't want to pay too much for Ukraine like Russia does，But once we enter the war, China may be no different from a madman, 100% of whom are in World War III

From the beginning, once a real war occurs, the scope of this conflict will not be the first island chain, but the entire Western Pacific. Of course, the premise is that China can ultimately develop such capabilities and there is enough support time. I personally think the United States may prefer us to have a conflict earlier, haha

The United States has enormous potential for war, and China is well aware that there is now a lot of propaganda that China may launch a Taiwan Wan war, unless it is based on China's short-term collapse, and it will not be initiated by China first.

 

[lightning f57]

The Allies of the willing will need to calculate the enormous losses they will take if they directly get involved to defend Taiwan. I dont think they have the stomach for such conflict, also China really doesnt want war over Taiwan as well.

The way i see it, China wont compromise its territorial integrity if Taiwan tries to breakaway. In that scenario a blockade is likely, you would have to be brave to run a blockade with 5 carrier battle groups in the way.

 

[guangdongt]

The Allies of the willing will need to calculate the enormous losses they will take if they directly get involved to defend Taiwan. I dont think they have the stomach for such conflict, also China really doesnt want war over Taiwan as well.

The way i see it, China wont compromise its territorial integrity if Taiwan tries to breakaway. In that scenario a blockade is likely, you would have to be brave to run a blockade with 5 carrier battle groups in the way.

If Tai Wan takes the final step of public independence, it may be because the United States believes that China has entered an irreversible decline and does not even need to wage war. I think the only possibility of a war between the two sides is that China is attempting to break through the limits of tolerance in the US led international order, and this limit will ultimately be interpreted by the US itself. China can only make passive preparations as much as possible

 

[Beijingwalker]

Let war happen, you will see it.

Then do it, you just talk about your own fantacy.