1st quarter of 21st century: How China rose to reshape global power
China expanding global influence through trade, development, and diplomacy
Saadet Gokce and Riyaz ul Khaliq |30.12.2025
- US strategy document identifies China as only strategic competitor with ‘capacity to reshape international order’
- Military buildup accelerates as China joins ranks of major powers
The first quarter of the 21st century has been defined by the rapid rise of China, which has moved from being a developing economy to a central economic, diplomatic, and military force shaping global affairs.
In 2000, China was a secondary player in an international system dominated by the United States. Today, it has emerged as a distinct pole of power, exerting influence through trade, development finance, diplomacy, and technology, backed by its growing military strength.
Washington has explicitly acknowledged Beijing's rise. The US’ 2022 National Security Strategy described China as “the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order.”
Economic engine of China’s power
China’s transformation began internally, but unfolded through deep integration into global markets.
At the turn of the century, China’s gross domestic product per capita stood at just under $1,000, compared with more than $36,000 in the United States. By 2024, China’s figure had climbed to $13,303, while US GDP per capita stood at $85,809, according to World Bank data.
Trade has been central to that rise. In the first 11 months of 2024, China racked up a trade surplus of more than $1 trillion, compared with $24.1 billion in 2000.
In 2001, more than 80% of economies did more two-way trade with the United States than with China. By 2023, that pattern had reversed, with around 70% of the world’s economies – roughly 145 countries – trading more with China than with the US.
While China embraced globalization, Huiyao Wang, founding president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, told Anadolu that continuity in governance also played a decisive role.
“There has been very consistent, dedicated, and hardworking leadership,” he said.
Despite its internal gains and expanding overseas footprint, China’s public debt remains lower relative to GDP than that of the United States. In 2024, US debt stood at about 124% of GDP, while China’s debt was 88.3%.
Diplomacy anchored in trade and development
Economic engagement has underpinned China’s expanding diplomatic presence.
Beijing now operates the world’s largest diplomatic network, with 274 missions worldwide, overtaking Washington in 2019. Its influence has been most visible across the Global South.
In Africa, China has remained the continent’s largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with trade reaching $282.1 billion in 2023 – roughly four times US-Africa trade.
China’s role has also expanded across Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly in energy, infrastructure, and space-related industries.
Eric Olander, co-founder of the China Global South Project, told Anadolu that many developing countries view China as both a market and an alternative partner.
“The Global South is a source of raw materials for China, but also an important market for Chinese products,” he said.
Analysts say China and the United States pursue fundamentally different paths to global influence.
“The US continues to stress security – alliances, deterrence and military posturing,” said Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Beijing-based Taihe Institute. “China focuses on development – infrastructure, connectivity, trade and technology – arguing that development is the master key to resolving many global problems.”
That approach has resonated across regions seeking industrialization rather than security guarantees.
In the Middle East, China has emerged as a major investor and technology provider, according to Andrea Ghiselli, an academic at the University of Exeter and project manager at the ChinaMed Project.
“The economies of the two sides are highly complementary,” Ghiselli told Anadolu. “China has no interest in playing a role similar to the United States, and regional countries also don’t want that.”
As regional economies seek to industrialize, he said, China is increasingly positioned as both a partner and a competitor, maintaining a central role across low- and high-value industries.
To project that model and advance its interests, Beijing has taken leading roles in multilateral institutions including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the BRICS bloc, the New Development Bank, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest trade pact.
Much of China’s engagement has also been tied to the Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013, which has directed Chinese investment into more than 150 countries and international organizations.
Military expansion
Despite its economic focus, China’s rise has been accompanied by rapid military modernization.
Defense spending climbed from $42.5 billion in 2000 to more than $318 billion in 2024, according to Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). China now meets most of its defense production needs domestically and has become the world’s fifth-largest arms exporter.
Over the past 25 years, Beijing has also built the world’s largest navy by number of vessels, reflecting industrial scale rather than combat experience. The Pentagon estimates that as of 2024, China’s total battle force exceeded 370 ships and submarines.
“China has clearly joined the club of big powers,” Jingdong Yuan, head of the China and Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Anadolu.
“It has developed and deployed some of the most sophisticated weapons systems, with some parity with, if not exceeding, what the US and Russia possess,” he said.
Today, China is estimated to have around 600 nuclear warheads, up from roughly 200 in the early 2000s, though still well below the estimates of the US stockpile of about 3,700 and Russia’s 4,300.
In 2015, President Xi Jinping elevated the Rocket Force to a full branch of the People’s Liberation Army, placing strategic missile forces at the center of China’s deterrence posture. The force now operates the world’s largest arsenal of ground-based conventional and dual-capable missiles.
Source: X, @SpoxCHN_MaoNing
“What China has yet to demonstrate is sustained combat experience in a real conflict environment,” Yuan said, noting that such conditions test command, control, and joint operational capabilities.
Unlike the United States, which maintains extensive overseas bases and alliances, China operates just one acknowledged overseas military base, which it opened in Djibouti in 2017.
Yuan noted that China also faces constraints in areas such as advanced jet engines, submarine noise reduction, and early-warning systems, but even so, he said the country “cannot be dismissed militarily.”
Technology and ‘new quality productive forces’
Under Xi, technological self-reliance has become a strategic priority, framed as the development of “new quality productive forces.”
This year, China became the first country to surpass 5 million valid domestic invention patents, while its international patent applications under the Patent Cooperation Treaty have led the world for six consecutive years, according to the China National Intellectual Property Administration.
Spending on research and development reached about $560 billion in 2024.
China is now the world’s largest exporter of civilian drones and accounts for more than 70% of global drone-related patent applications.
Meanwhile, the country saw rapid progress in locally produced artificial intelligence – shown by the launch of the powerful AI chatbot DeepSeek – along with advances in 5G. It has also become the largest market for robots.
China has also become a major player in the energy and automotive fields. In 2024, Chinese firms accounted for more than 70% of global production of electric cars and in 2023, held around 80% of the global solar panel industry, according to the International Energy Agency.
Strides in human development
China’s rise has been accompanied by major gains in human development.
Life expectancy jumped from 70.8 years in 2000 to 79 years by the end of 2024. In comparison, life expectancy in the United States rose from 76.9 years in 2000 to about 78.4 years in 2023, according to US health authorities.
Extreme poverty fell from 83% in 1990 to near zero by 2019, according to the World Bank, as China lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty.
Education has been another pillar of that transformation. China now has more than 3,160 colleges and universities, enrolling over 40 million students, with Peking University and Tsinghua University ranked among the world’s top institutions.
At the same time, demographic pressures – including an aging population and declining birth rates – pose long-term challenges to growth.
Different model of power
Analysts say China’s appeal to much of the developing world lies in the example it offers.
Olander described China’s rise from one of the world’s poorest countries to a major industrial and technological power as a development trajectory that resonates across the Global South.
He said many countries see China as an example of modernization without Westernization – a model that allows states to pursue economic growth and technological advancement without adopting Western political systems or foreign policy alignments.
“Countries now have options,” he said, pointing to alternatives in infrastructure financing, digital systems, currency arrangements, and satellite navigation.
China’s emergence, he added, was shaped by timing as well as policy.
“After the Cold War, the US and Europe looked inward,” Olander said. “This is what gave China an opportunity.”
