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There’s been a summer surge in COVID-19 cases. Should I get a booster shot now or wait until the fall for the new updated COVID vaccine?​

PAUL TAYLOR
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED 3 HOURS AGO

QUESTION: I’ve heard that there’s been a summer surge in COVID-19 cases. Should I get a booster shot now or wait until the fall for the new updated COVID vaccine?

ANSWER: It’s true that there’s been a recent rise in COVID levels in Canada, according to data from wastewater collection sites across the country as of the end of July.

Not so long ago, many medical experts assumed that COVID would eventually turn into a seasonal infection – similar to influenza.

The flu virus tends to spread more readily in the fall and winter months. That’s why influenza shots are given during those seasons. It was expected that public-health providers would be able to administer flu and COVID vaccines together, making it easier for people to stay up-to-date with their inoculations.

However, with COVID, “there is no evidence that we are approaching anything that resembles seasonality,” said Dawn Bowdish, a professor of medicine and a Canada Research Chair in Aging and Immunity at McMaster University in Hamilton.

“We have been seeing waves of COVID every three to six months and there is no reason to believe that this is going to stop anytime soon” she added.

Dr. Bowdish said that each new wave is partly fuelled by the emergence of viral mutations or variants that are better able to evade the defences of the immune system.

Diminishing immunity within the population is also a factor. The protection you gain from a vaccination or an actual infection tends to wane after three to six months. For those who got a COVID vaccine this past spring, their immunity may already be starting to wane. The vaccine they received was designed to target the XBB variant, which was the dominant form of the virus last year.

This fall, public health officials are planning to have an updated vaccine that will help guard against the current crop such as the JN and KP variants. But, so far, there have been no official announcements about when the new vaccines will be available to the Canadian public.

“It may be October, it may be November – we just don’t know.” said Fahad Razak, a Canada Research Chair in Healthcare Data and Analytics at the University of Toronto.

In the meantime, those at risk of serious complications may want to consider getting an extra dose of the current vaccine, he said. Although the vaccine is no longer a perfect match for the variants in circulation, it’s close enough to give a boost to the immune system.

“It would provide some additional protection until later this fall when the new vaccine is released,” explained Dr. Razak, who is also an internal medicine physician at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto.

Based on the recommendations of the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI), which provides advice to the provincial and territorial ministries of health, you should wait at least three months between vaccine doses.

High risk individuals who could potentially benefit from a vaccine shot include adults over the age of 65, those with immune-compromising medical conditions, residents of long-term care homes or other congregate settings, as well as pregnant women.

Even those not considered at high risk may have good reasons to receive a dose.

“If you’re planning a big holiday and you don’t want to get sick while you’re travelling, then this is something you can do to protect yourself,” said Allison McGeer, an infectious disease physician at Sinai Health System in Toronto.

She noted there is currently a high level of COVID activity in parts of Europe and the United States. Consider the fact that U.S. President Joe Biden was recently laid low by a bout of COVID.

Those who live with vulnerable individuals also have a sound rationale to get a shot. “You don’t want to be responsible for taking COVID home,” explained Dr. McGeer.

According to the latest statistics from June 30, just 18 per cent of people in Canada rolled up their sleeves for the vaccine that targets the XBB variant.

Dr. Bowdish sees no downside to people getting an extra shot of the current vaccine so long as it as has been at least three months since their last dose.

“All the data suggests it helps prevent infections in vulnerable people,” said Dr. Bowdish. “There is no reason to wait when rates are high.”

Nonetheless, she has concerns that people must decide for themselves whether to get a shot. Neither public heath officials nor expert groups such as NACI have provided any advice or guidance yet.

To further complicate matters, there is a dearth of reliable information about the level of COVID activity in Canada. Routine testing has fallen by wayside. Statistics on the number of people in hospital with COVID are incomplete.

And, in Ontario, the provincial government as of August ended the innovative wastewater-monitoring program, which provided evidence about the amount of virus being spread in the community.

“People are supposed to make decisions about their own health based on their level of risk. But how do they do that if they don’t have any data? I think this is really frustrating for the public,” said Dr. Bowdish.

Paul Taylor is a former Patient Navigation Adviser at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre and former health editor of The Globe and Mail.
 

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Aug 6, 2024 -COVID

Louisiana is a COVID hotspot right now​

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COVID-19 wastewater viral activity levels​

As of July 26, 2024

No dataMinimal or lowModerateHighVery high
A map showing COVID-19 wastewater viral activity levels by U.S. state. As of July 26, 2024, 37 states are showing high or very high levels of activity, 10 states are showing moderate levels, two states are is showing minimal or low levels, and 2 states are not reporting data.


Data: CDC; Map: Axios Visuals
The summer's COVID-19 wave is continuing, and Louisiana is one of the states with "very high" levels of virus activity, per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

Why it matters: Your cold may actually be COVID.
The big picture: The virus is especially prevalent right now across the western U.S. and the South, in particular a region that includes New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, where test positivity topped 25%, per agency data.

  • The national rate for the same time period is 16.3%.
Case in point: Ochsner, Louisiana's largest health system, had about five to 10 COVID patients statewide a few months ago, writes Emily Woodruff with NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune.

Zoom in: Louisiana's positivity rate was 18.7% at the end of July, the state Health Department said Friday. It has been steadily climbing since May.

  • Flu and RSV numbers remain low.
  • However, the numbers could change as more data is collected, the agency says.
By the numbers: Louisiana's 33 wastewater tracking sites are reporting increased viral activity as well, according to CDC data.

  • For the last week of July, the level was almost double the national rate and was higher than the regional rate.
Between the lines: Almost 80% of circulating COVID variants are KP variants, which are descendants of the highly contagious JN.1 strain that surged over the winter and are among the so-called FLiRT variants.

Threat level: COVID-19 cases have risen in the U.S. each summer since the pandemic began.


  • Hospitalizations remain low nationally. However, the virus still poses a risk to the elderly and immunocompromised.
What's next: If you test positive for COVID, the latest guidance from the CDC says you should stay home and away from others.

  • The recommendations suggest returning to normal activities when, for at least 24 hours, symptoms are improving overall, and if a fever was present, it has been gone without use of a fever-reducing medication.
  • Once people resume normal activities, they are encouraged to take additional prevention strategies for the next five days to curb disease spread, such as taking steps for cleaner air, enhancing hygiene practices, wearing a well-fitting mask, keeping a distance from others and/or getting tested for respiratory viruses.
 

Here's what parents should know about new vaccine laws in Louisiana, including COVID-19​

Portrait of Greg HilburnGreg Hilburn
Shreveport Times

Two new Louisiana school immunization laws amplify parents already existing right to opt out of vaccine requirements and prevent any school from requiring children to get the COVID-19 shot as a requirement to enroll.

Both new laws (Acts 674 and 675), authored by Republican Gonzales Rep. Kathy Edmonston and signed by Republican Gov. Jeff Landry, were prompted by pushback from previous COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and mandates.

Edmonston passed similar bills in 2023, but former Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards vetoed them.

“The intent of this bill is to stop mandates,” Edmonston said during debate about her bills. “It doesn't have anything to do with yay or nay on the vaccines; we just don't want mandates.”

Louisiana parents have long been able to exempt their children from school immunization requirements, but Edmonson and others, among them state Department of Education Superintendent Cade Brumley, argued that the right to opt out was not well known or clearly conveyed by schools.

The new law requires that any communication with parents about vaccine requirements also include exemption information.

"It's been a bit of a hidden secret," said Brumley, whose state school board instituted the policy last spring at his recommendation following Edwards' veto. "We're trying to illuminate that right for parents."

Edmonston's bill elevated the policy into law.

"I think it's one of the most profound adjustments that have been made," Brumley said.
 
 

Is this the biggest Covid summer wave ever?​

A rise in Covid infections began in early June, and wastewater data from the CDC shows levels are still rising.
A masked commuter on the metro in Washington

The current Covid surge is expected to peak in the next few weeks.Rosem Morton for The Washington Post via Getty Images file

Aug. 9, 2024, 5:00 AM EDT
By Akshay Syal, M.D.
The U.S. is in what may end up being its biggest summer wave of Covid, with no end yet in sight.

“If you just talk about infections, this is probably going to end up becoming the largest summer wave we’ve had,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and former White House Covid-19 response coordinator. “It’s still not as big as the winter waves, but it is starting to get close.”

It's not only in the U.S. There's been a worldwide surge in infections in recent weeks, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for Covid at the World Health Organization, said in a briefing this week. The proportion of tests coming back positive for Covid in Europe is above 20%, with wastewater data suggesting case numbers may be two to 20 times higher than what's being reported, Van Kerkhove said.

The best way to estimate how much virus the U.S. is coping with is wastewater data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, because many people just test at home when they get sick, if they test at all.

Nationally, the CDC tracker lists levels of Covid as "high," with the Western U.S., including Texas and California, showing some of the highest levels of virus. Eastern states, such Florida and North Carolina, are also reporting very high levels of virus in the community.

Wastewater can't identify how many cases a day there are; coronavirus levels are much higher nationwide than they were this time last year.

This year’s summer wave also began earlier than last year’s, Jha said. Case numbers started rising in early June, compared with July and August 2023.

Jha expects this wave to peak in the next few weeks, with case numbers becoming much lower around September — about the time the updated Covid vaccines targeting the KP.2 strain, a descendant of the JN.1 variant, should be available.

The new vaccines should get final approval from the Food and Drug Administration in the coming weeks. At that point, the CDC will recommend who should be first in line for the shots.

Jha said that to protect against a winter surge, you should aim to get vaccinated in October at the earliest, although any time before Thanksgiving should be fine.

Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, didn't expect the summer waves to be so pronounced four years into Covid.

“I, and many other virologists, thought that we probably would see summer waves for maybe another one or two years, but we didn’t expect them to increase significantly,” he said. “We thought they would continue to just sort of be smaller and smaller as time went on, as we transition to what we hope is going to be just one winter surge of Covid cases per year.”

The latest CDC forecast has a mixture of variants currently in circulation including, KP.3, KP.3.1.1 and KP.2.3, descendants of the JN.1 version of the virus that was circulating earlier this year. Some scientists collectively refer to the variants as “FLiRT” — a reference to their genetic changes — and they are believed to be some of the most contagious yet.

The factors behind the current spread are most likely the more transmissible variants, combined with people’s spending more time indoors because of hot weather, he said.

“Besides that, there’s not much that we can sort of put our finger on to say this is what’s driving this summer surge," Pekosz said.

For the most part, hospitalizations for Covid this year have remained lower than last year. In recent summer months, there has been a slight uptick, with levels higher than they were this time last year. Fortunately, deaths due to Covid remain the fewest they have ever been.

“We’re seeing people that are getting admitted and test positive for Covid, but the severe pulmonary complications of Covid-19 are extremely rare,” said Dr. Michael Phillips, chief hospital epidemiologist for NYU Langone Health in New York City. “Where we see the dramatic increase in numbers is people that are coming into our [emergency department] or people coming into our ambulatory sites who test positive and go home.”

The test positivity rate at NYU Langone Health, or the proportion of patients with symptoms who test positive for Covid, is 12%, a sixfold increase in just the last couple of months.

Last month it had 1,357 positive tests, over twice as many as in July 2023, when it had 562 positive tests. Just 12 of the Covid patients last month were admitted to the hospital for Covid-related illnesses.

“Our hospitalization rates are down, so even if we are testing and seeing more [Covid], it seems to be having less of an impact on our susceptible populations,” Phillips said.

Jha said that what happens this winter is impossible to predict but that there could be a silver lining to a large summer wave.

“A big summer wave tends to lead to a little bit of a smaller winter wave and vice versa, just because there’s a little bit more immunity in the population,” he said.
 

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