Discussion: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran

[SolarWarden]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1818758342048690328

Israel and the USA always make these threats to threaten Iran

Iran should ignore.

Iran shouldn't ignore. When Israel took out IRGC general in Iran consulate Israel knew that Iran would have no choice but to respond militarily and depending how the attack went Israel was likely going to take the hit and they did since nobody died and nothing was destroyed. This is very different since it looks like it was a spook job likely using Iranian assets Israel has inside Iran so a non-escalatory response would be Iran attacking Israeli diplomats around the world or assassinations inside Israel a cruise missile, ballistic missile and drone attack by Iran for this hit will not be tolerated this time.

If Iran and hezbollah are coordinating a huge rocket attack Israel will know so will the US and you can see a situation where Israel pre-empts a hezbo attack by launching a huge missile and airstrike at launch locations and missile depots. US ISR/ELINT/SIGINT were able to spot Iranian missiles being staged moving from their base locations they too could be taken out before they are launched. It's a massive undertaking to move that many weapons especially massive weapons like cruise and ballistic missiles and then coordinate with another nation without spewing out a massive electronic and physical signature. Easy spotting for US.

 

[Lulldapull]

Iran shouldn't ignore. When Israel took out IRGC general in Iran consulate Israel knew that Iran would have no choice but to respond militarily and depending how the attack went Israel was likely going to take the hit and they did since nobody died and nothing was destroyed. This is very different since it looks like it was a spook job likely using Iranian assets Israel has inside Iran so a non-escalatory response would be Iran attacking Israeli diplomats around the world or assassinations inside Israel a cruise missile, ballistic missile and drone attack by Iran for this hit will not be tolerated this time.

If Iran and hezbollah are coordinating a huge rocket attack Israel will know so will the US and you can see a situation where Israel pre-empts a hezbo attack by launching a huge missile and airstrike at launch locations and missile depots. US ISR/ELINT/SIGINT were able to spot Iranian missiles being staged moving from their base locations they too could be taken out before they are launched. It's a massive undertaking to move that many weapons especially massive weapons like cruise and ballistic missiles and then coordinate with another nation without spewing out a massive electronic and physical signature. Easy spotting for US.

Iran's killin Israeli's daily. Look at da Iranian resistance forum man. I don't know how hard that can be? unless yous can't be bothered? Why would Israel do all this otherwise? OMG.....

OMG.....OMG.......lol

 

[Mr X]

You couldn't even cut it in Syria? yet here yous jiving? Are yous serious?

US would cut off your access to the global financial system in 2 minutes and then we'd see yous nekkid here no? Just like Pakistan no?

Stop joking brah. Get real round here. This ain't uber taxi illegal migrant forum.

Iran stupid and I am changez khan on US support?

I read your post 3 to 4 times, didn’t understand a word. Can you please write in English. I am sure it is making sense to you under the context you have thought in your mind but others do not understand this broken English with poor grammar and spelling mistakes.

I know you can write in clear English so you don’t have an excuse of not able to write in English.

You can PM in the existing Direct Messages conversation and explain what you meant in this post as I have wasted 5 minutes of my life and didn’t understand a word

Thanks

 

[Lulldapull]

I read your post 3 to 4 times, didn’t understand a word. Can you please write in English. I am sure it is making sense to you under the context you have thought in your mind but others do not understand this broken English with poor grammar and spelling mistakes.

I know you can write in clear English so you don’t have an excuse of not able to write in English.

You can PM in the existing Direct Messages conversation and explain what you meant in this post as I have wasted 5 minutes of my life and didn’t understand a word

Thanks

It’s ok bro…..I’m done with this shameful discussion anyway. No more from me……we’re all disappointed.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

The attack was with a spike missile
View attachment 57583

This makes sense. Too much damage for a simple little quadcopter drone.

However a Spike would be useful only in specific circumstances.
If he was in some tight quarters city area a Spike would be useless compared to a drone.

They did mention 2am so maybe they had to drive it into Tehran.

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1818780626843009463

 

[maverick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1818780626843009463

sounds like the game is on...

 

[Falcon29]

the problem for Iran is that it takes a few waves of ballistic missiles to degrade Israel's ABM shield

so the attack has to be huge to make a dent, but when a critical mass is reached, the attack will have huge damage

i.e., it's difficult to launch an attack that only does a moderate level of damage

@Falcon29 @Immortals

That's the dilemma indeed. We don't truly know what Israel's anti-ballistic missile defense system looks like. And how many can they intercept. When you add the US Navy and AF into the equation, it becomes even more challenging to determine the threshold, before system is completely overwhelmed. We also don't know if they have replenished stocks since the last attack in April.

Iran can overwhelm the system without a doubt. But what happens if it underestimates its ability to do so is the question. Imagine 700-800 projectiles/missiles are fired. Iran wants to overwhelm the defense systems and hit targets successfully. Maybe thinking a small amount will get through, but actually 400 land and impact their targets. Then you have dealt a strong blow that makes them want to respond severely or invoke NATO intervention.

That's why it can be considered to allow Hezbollah and Ansarallah to have a go right before the Iranian salvo so precise and immediate Intel can be had.

 

[maverick]

That's the dilemma indeed. We don't truly know what Israel's anti-ballistic missile defense system looks like. And how many can they intercept. When you add the US Navy and AF into the equation, it becomes even more challenging to determine the threshold, before system is completely overwhelmed. We also don't know if they have replenished stocks since the last attack in April.

Iran can overwhelm the system without a doubt. But what happens if it underestimates its ability to do so is the question. Imagine 700-800 projectiles/missiles are fired. Iran wants to overwhelm the defense systems and hit targets successfully. Maybe thinking a small amount will get through, but actually 400 land and impact their targets. Then you have dealt a strong blow that makes them want to respond severely or invoke NATO intervention.

That's why it can be considered to allow Hezbollah and Ansarallah to have a go right before the Iranian salvo so precise and immediate Intel can be had.

If Iran struck Knesset or Airbases then that will be a huge escalation.. what targets can it strike ? possibly bigger escalation by hitting Dimona ?

 

[onlinpunit]

if iran fires 100 missiles, maybe 10% will get through (10)

if iran fires 200 missiles, maybe 20% will get through (40)

iran fires 500 missiles, maybe 40% will get through (200)

but then every additional missile will likely have a 60-70% chance of getting through

this is the problem iran faces in designing a calculated but sufficiently strong strike

What about retaliation by USA/ Israel ? What ABM shield iran has ?

 

[Lulldapull]

I think he’s a Schizophrenic patient,
Or severely mentally challenged going by the crazy things he routinely
writes

You routinely upvote me no? If I was schizophrenic why would you do that bhai?

Ker lay tu budtameezi…..no drama…… I been here as long as Waz…….yous just another new ismaal tame puppu.

 

[A1Kaid]

Inna lillahi wa inna ilayhi raji'un.

There’s really nothing left to escalate. A direct strike in the middle of Tehran on a guest on official invitation.

Failed deterrence.

Iran should have hit hard the the first time when their General was killed in Damascus.

At this point it’s an undeclared war.

Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, and Palestine should not be in this struggle alone, the Muslim countries should unite and prepare.

Even the cowardly sold out countries should know by now appeasement, cease fire talks, and deescalation measures are not working.

 

[Falcon29]

If Iran struck Knesset or Airbases then that will be a huge escalation.. what targets can it strike ? possibly bigger escalation by hitting Dimona ?

There are a lot of targets. I believe Palmachim airbase could be a potential target. It's used to attack Gaza heavily. It will deal a blow to Israel's operations in Gaza. Hezbollah and Iran can target it together. Targeting the Israeli Navy is also another option or a additional target along the airbase. It's necessary to make Israel pay a price. While degrading Israel's ability to operate over Gaza. And push towards a ceasefire.

 

[maverick]

There are a lot of targets. I believe Palmachim airbase could be a potential target. It's used to attack Gaza heavily. It will deal a blow to Israel's operations in Gaza. Hezbollah and Iran can target it together. Targeting the Israeli Navy is also another option or a additional target along the airbase. It's necessary to make Israel pay a price. While degrading Israel's ability to operate over Gaza. And push towards a ceasefire.

this might be an opportunity for Iran to hit israeli airforce, to cripple and destroy its assets that are used against Palestinians and Lebanon ..

 

[Falcon29]

What about retaliation by USA/ Israel ? What ABM shield iran has ?

US is bluffing. Americans won't support a war on behalf of Israel. If US government authorizes it, it will have to reverse course of action, quickly. Arabs will not allow US to their territories as launch pads. Might happen against their will, but I highly doubt they will allow it.

Most importantly, Arabs cannot sell to the general public, the idea of helping Israel retaliate, after it gets a blow it deserves, that entire Arab public wishes for. On top of that, to suggest Arab states act as a shield for Israel's supremacy and stubbornness in its genocide. It would be so extremely unpopular and lead to violent revolts and military action by Arab states such as Algeria and others. It would be seen as borderline blasphemy, to face war on their lands for sake of protecting Israel, an Israel that flamed fans of war on purpose and committed a genocide on purpose.