Gaza-Israel Conflict | 2023-2024
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Meengla
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In case of a war, tens or even hundreds of billions would be pumped into the American economy and it is not hard to guess who'd benefits the most: The entities associated with the Military Industrial Complex. Just like in case of the two decades long Afghan war, just like in case of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, most money actually ends up in America!!
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I think this NY Times 'analysis' is missing one crucial point: Israel, or specifically Netanyahu, WANTS an escalation to the point of a regional war. A bully in a schoolyard can keep punching someone; the target can only plan for so long that the bully would tire out but if the bully keeps punching then patience can run out.
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www.nytimes.com
Through nearly 10 months of intense war with Hamas in Gaza, Israel has fought a parallel, slower-paced conflict with Hamas’s allies across the Middle East in which all sides have risked major escalation but ultimately avoided dragging the region into a bigger, multi-front war.
The attacks on two of Israel’s leading foes on Tuesday and Wednesday have created one of the biggest challenges to that equilibrium since the fighting began in October.
Israel’s Tuesday night strike on Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, was the first time during this war that Israel has targeted such an influential Hezbollah leader in Lebanon’s capital. Hours later, the killing in Iran of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was considered the most brazen breach of Iran’s defenses since October.
Taken together, the seniority of the targets, the sensitive location of the strikes and their near simultaneity were viewed as a particularly provocative escalation that has left the region fearing an even bigger response from Iran and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. The scale of that reaction could determine whether the low-level regional battle between Israel and the Iranian alliance tips into a full-scale, all-out conflict.
Some analysts said the killing of Mr. Haniyeh, Hamas’s top negotiator, also made a cease-fire deal in Gaza less likely in the immediate future. Israelis hoped that the killing of such an influential leader would eventually help break Hamas’s resolve, making the group more willing to compromise in the long term. But others said that the organization was unlikely to be seriously affected by Mr. Haniyeh’s death.
Despite his title as Hamas’s political leader, Mr. Haniyeh is replaceable, said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa program director for the International Crisis Group.
“Hamas will survive,” he said. “They have plenty of other leaders.”
Analysts also said that both Iran and Hezbollah had reasons to respond in ways that make all-out war less likely. For Iran, the attack on its soil was embarrassing but not catastrophic because it targeted a foreign guest rather than senior Iranian officials, according to Andreas Krieg, an expert on the Middle East at King’s College, London.
“I don’t think necessarily that the Iranians’ strategic calculus has changed,” Mr. Krieg said.
“Iran will have to respond in some way,” he said. “But it’s not a turning point.”
Hezbollah faces more pressure to react than Iran because the strike on Beirut hit one of its own commanders, rather than one of its allies, according to Michael Stephens, a non-resident expert on the Middle East at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based research organization. But it is by no means clear that Mr. Haniyeh’s death in Iran will change Hezbollah’s calculations in Lebanon, Mr. Stephens said.
“We need to be very clear and very careful about how we conflate the two issues,” Mr. Stephens said. “Over the past nine months, Hezbollah has repeatedly shown that what happens to Hamas is not related to Hezbollah’s strategic imperatives. That doesn’t mean there won’t be conflict. I just think the route to getting there is more complex than it seems.”
Past experiences show that de-escalation is still possible. In January, Israeli strikes killed a senior Hamas leader in Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut, leading to fears that Hezbollah would mount a particularly fierce response on Hamas’s behalf. Days later, Hezbollah instead chose what was construed as a largely symbolic response, firing a barrage of rockets at an Israeli army base that caused little damaged.
Falcon29
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The moment of truth is indeed approaching.
Falcon29
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Israel just murdered a Al-Jazeera journalist on purpose in the middle of the day. Israel has given a blank check to exterminate all Palestinians and absolutely no one cares or is willing to do anything.
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Journalist Ismail al-Ghoul, Al Jazeera’s correspondent, was martyred in an Israeli raid while covering in front of Abu al-Abd Haniyeh’s house in the Beach camp.
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Journalist Ismail al-Ghoul, Al Jazeera’s correspondent, was martyred in an Israeli raid while covering in front of Abu al-Abd Haniyeh’s house in the Beach camp.
GoMig-21
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All due respect I wholeheartedly disagree. I hate to say it since I don't need to tell you how instrumental Qatar and especially Egypt has been dealing with making sure the zionist entity NEVER EVER EVER knew for a millisecond that Ismail Haniya and Mohammad Deif even Sinwar were in Egypt, and I won't even mention the ones like Abu Obeida and many in the field. You never even saw a single attempt at not only a murder, but a rumor of an attempted one and we used to host Arafat on a regular basis where the bounty on this head was in the hundreds of millions of $ and did you ever hear a peep, Factory bro?
What about all the no-good for nothing chances Egyptian military takes making sure "certain tunnels" are packed and shut yet other vital ones are kept wide open because were the hell else would any of these Mujahideen get any of the equipment they have, whether Iranian or even Egyptian Limpet mines? Yet the Arabs are the scum of the earth who do nothing but hey, at least we don't get out personnel knocked off one by one included HIGH-RANKING leaders of the resistance who now will have a GREAT affect on the zionist power that is about to be unleashed on the old vaunted ones they call themselves the Parry of Allah.
If you're willing to forgive such an egregiously blatant lapse in intel (let alone the JOKE of security that the IRGC), then I'll take the treacherous Arabs who've done 10-fold since 1984 yet all you younglings tend to quickly forget thinking this only happened since October 7th haha.
Meengla
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If you are implying that Iran collaborated with the assassination of Haniyeh then you couldn't be more wrong. I believe killing him in Qatar would have been far easier or killing him in various public places like airports--you know he's been going to Russia and Turkey etc. This assassination is meant to provoke Iran. Otherwise, it's meaningless: Another Haniyeh would step in.
Yes, the Egyptian help is underreported and downplayed by even Israel. The Israelis have too many fronts and they would deal with Egypt in due time; they know what went on through the Philadelphia Corridor.
We all need to understand: Israelis have unrestricted access to the American intelligence sources and it wouldn't even surprise me that Americans in the Persian Gulf aided in this assassination. I believe IF the Israelis really want to, they can take our the President of Pakistan--and Pakistan is 'security state' armed with nukes. I don't think the Iranians have the 'intelligence' resources to counter the American resources. Maybe, just maybe, the Russians have good intelligence gathering resources coming somewhat close to the America's.
Falcon29
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Israeli Jewish evil is unprecedented. The Jewish people have a evil problem and we cannot ignore it anymore. This is not a normal people or a normal fabric of American society. They are foreign to rest of normal people around the world.
GoMig-21
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Not so much you but yes, you too were part of the free-for-all call out the Arab bashing cowboy jumpwagon everyone jumped on thinking it was the cool thing to all out the Arabs and particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan of course and of course, the despicable begger nation Egypt that's the same as Pakistan. But where was that guy @Persian Gulf how was boasting all over the place about how it wasn't enough that EAF C-130s were defing the Israeli blockade and dropping thousands of tons of aid by air despite being told by both, the US and the zionist entity not to do it yet what was my friend's critizim at the time? "Oh you want a clap in the hand for making a few air lifts" I'm sure he remembers that slew of arrogance now that not only has the incompetence of his supposed military prowess (we won't even go into any intelligence since I have ZERO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 respect for whatever they call it in Iran after allowing the NUMBER ONE HAMMAS LEADER to be KILLED IN TEHRAN after lowing their embassador and aid in Syria is a precision strike of beauty by the demons and then allow one of the worst presidential and foreign minister death also on their land where they botched the rescue effort so badly that not only did Iranian people see now incompetent their military & intelligence structure is, but how pathetic and unworthy of including it in the same conversation as Saudi Intel, Egyptian Mukhabarat which come in several agency, the crappad in Israel and the CIA/FBI. Not for a million years will your intelligence be included in the same group with a failure of this magnitude.
One more thing and I'm leaving it at that; not only will Tehran have the worst diplomatic relations which other countries from now on and none will ever want to visit (you have NO IDEA the implications of such a botchery) but look at what's happening, Houthis got spanked and I hate to say it, but there are A LOT MORE to come 1000X worse that what the USS & RN did and the ones who call them the Party of Allah (swt) with their provocations and balsy intrusions are in for a huge threat of the worst kind, not the good kind, but the devastating kind. Mark my words and take this screen shot, that fat sweaty pig Nasrallah is on the next list of chalkboard pinned photographs I guarantee my entire house including the pet, not the wife, of course since she's not around anymore Alla Yerhamha w'esturha a'leiha Insha'Allah w'delha jenat-al Fardouse Ya Rab Ya Karim that sweat pot will be one of the very few next to be boxed around downtown Beirut into southern Lebanon but it's take a while since he better stay in Lubnan and show no foot in Iran as we've discovered quite well how that works out for many, from Soleymani to Haniya and so on. But he's next I guarantee you and the US with Biden will finish Hezbollah in the next few months without even nukes as well as the Houthis and we'll be back to a further stage than 0. It will be MUCH WORSE for the resistance and even then I doubt my good friend will still not understand how a 2 stat solution in untenable. Impossible because the stronger will ALWAYS prevail ad impose restriction the former will never agree and we're back to the status quo.
But let's keep bashing the Arabs because they never did what us so much smarter keyboard warriors know so much more about the right decisions that affect 750million Muslims in the ME, man. Don't we know best because what Hamas started on October 7th should be the one and only priority that should take precedence how dare this self-centered holding onto their power seats thing of nothing else than that!
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