India's Nuclear Arsenal Surpasses Pakistan's After 15-20 Years: SIPRI

[Oscar]

India has only one nuclear problem and that is Pakistan. China India are mature enough to not even fight with bullets, let alone nuclear weapons. Remember, China never said Nuclear once in its statements and Indian government never said Nuclear once in respect to China. Compare this with Pakistan where anyone in foreign office can not finish speech or diplomatic statement without "India" and "Nuclear".

Indian nuclear weapons are only and only for fighting Pakistan. For China, its a deterrence at worst. Unlike Pakistan, China is not stupid enough to fight a nuclear war. Actually, if China wants to fight a nuclear war with India, it will make Pakistan fight it instead.

Generally nations knowing they have conventional parity and not having active conflicts will avoid mentioning nuclear.

Pakistans nuclear program is targeted at India. Its purpose is to deter India from using its overwhelming conventional superiority to establish its will freely - so off course it will be mentioned. The weapons are to deter - and you deter by showing the gun.

 

[DevendraRajput]

Generally nations knowing they have conventional parity and not having active conflicts will avoid mentioning nuclear.

Pakistans nuclear program is targeted at India. Its purpose is to deter India from using its overwhelming conventional superiority to establish its will freely - so off course it will be mentioned. The weapons are to deter - and you deter by showing the gun.

That is exactly the reason why India has only one nuclear problem. Pakistan. China does not feel the need to even bring nukes into discussion. For that matter neither does India, even though India is much weaker militarily as compared to China.

 

[Oscar]

That is exactly the reason why India has only one nuclear problem. Pakistan. China does not feel the need to even bring nukes into discussion. For that matter neither does India, even though India is much weaker militarily as compared to China.

Because until recently neither saw the other as an major threat other than economic competition.
Other than 62 - not much had happened until 2020.

On the other hand, until recently the majority of Indian forces are concentrated on the Pakistani side and there is already a precedent of invasion.

Either way, it is an irrelevant aspect to the overall idea of actual nuclear warhead counts and where they are aimed and for what purpose

 

[DevendraRajput]

Because until recently neither saw the other as an major threat other than economic competition.
Other than 62 - not much had happened until 2020.

On the other hand, until recently the majority of Indian forces are concentrated on the Pakistani side and there is already a precedent of invasion.

Either way, it is an irrelevant aspect to the overall idea of actual nuclear warhead counts and where they are aimed and for what purpose

Actually, this is not true. India and China have been busy doing posturing for ... very long time. Building roads for better troops movement and so on. Not to mention there have been violent events between two countries. Chola and Nathula incidence come in mind.

Both India and China have no first use policy for quite sometime and quite explicitly.

In terms of nuclear weapons and nuclear war, there is only one single adversory India faces. Its Pakistan. So all of its 150 odd weapons are actually meant for Pakistan and Pakistan alone.

All of the Pakistan's nuclear calculus should take a starting point of being hit by 150 strategic nukes. Any use of Pakistan's weapons will happen after that. And why so? Because Pakistan has always threatened to nuke India which means a first strike by India will be a deterrence one. Indian nuclear doctrine considers threat of nuclear weapons as a failure of deterrence.

This is why I say, in India Pakistan, first strike is very likely will be India hitting Pakistan with nukes.

 

[Optimal_Control]

Pakistan is 20 measured nuclear explosions within its core urban Urban areas to put it out of viable existence as a country ..

so the OP self fellatio is limited to ruining his seat cover by giving himself self assuring statements of “tactical” vs “Strategic” warheads as if he was personally inspecting the yields on Pakistani stockpiles.

India has problems north as well.

However, I don’t think anyone has been ever more adamant in terms of quid pro quo plus than Gen Kidwai and what he alluded to wasn’t clear to those interested - it extendeds to number of warheads aimed as well.

For that matter, quid pro quo plus is ensuring that whatever proportional damage is caused to Pakistan can be (regardless of Pakistan not existing in the hours of a nuclear exchange) is guaranteed…not launched, not deployed but guaranteed equivalent RELATIVE damage

So if India has the equivalent of percentage damage to lets say Multan or Lahore being lost and then that relative percentage of Indian population will be given gamma dosage as well.

Hate the establishment for ruining a country’s true growth and potential but they along with some other thinkers in intelligencia(scientists,seasoned diplomats and engineers) put that into stone and lo and behold it is.

Hi @Oscar
To be honest, the number of nuclear warheads is irrelevant when the economic disparity has ballooned to such levels. In fact it is this very thought of Pakistani "establishment" that has made the differential 12:1 in India's favour in economy and in a very few years (as early as 3 years) this differential will swell past 15:1. And, with economic clout, India could influence a lot of things on global stage which will make things a lot more difficult for Pakistan-- all without ever having to resort to nuclear blackmail.

 

[Oscar]

Actually, this is not true. India and China have been busy doing posturing for ... very long time. Building roads for better troops movement and so on. Not to mention there have been violent events between two countries. Chola and Nathula incidence come in mind.

Both India and China have no first use policy for quite sometime and quite explicitly.

In terms of nuclear weapons and nuclear war, there is only one single adversory India faces. Its Pakistan. So all of its 150 odd weapons are actually meant for Pakistan and Pakistan alone.

All of the Pakistan's nuclear calculus should take a starting point of being hit by 150 strategic nukes. Any use of Pakistan's weapons will happen after that. And why so? Because Pakistan has always threatened to nuke India which means a first strike by India will be a deterrence one. Indian nuclear doctrine considers threat of nuclear weapons as a failure of deterrence.

This is why I say, in India Pakistan, first strike is very likely will be India hitting Pakistan with nukes.

Im sure Pakistan has taken all calculations.
Ill end with Quid pro quo plus.

 

[Oscar]

Hi @Oscar
To be honest, the number of nuclear warheads is irrelevant when the economic disparity has ballooned to such levels. In fact it is this very thought of Pakistani "establishment" that has made the differential 12:1 in India's favour in economy and in a very few years (as early as 3 years) this differential will swell past 15:1. And, with economic clout, India could influence a lot of things on global stage which will make things a lot more difficult for Pakistan-- all without ever having to resort to nuclear blackmail.

I absolutely agree and you echo my reply to Raj if you can read between the lines.

India has already nullified the nuclear threat to it for all intents and purposes for now as things stand.

 

[DevendraRajput]

Im sure Pakistan has taken all calculations.
Ill end with Quid pro quo plus.

Unlikely. Pakistan does not have resources to keep a survivable nuclear deterrence. Its entire thinking is based on the false assumption that somehow it will get the first chance to strike. If it does not, Pakistan is no more and it can do nothing at that point.

Why do I think that? Because otherwise it would have never made nuclear conflict such a major point of its foreign policy.

The only option for Pakistan in a nuclear conflict is to be first. Otherwise, its nuclear option will be lost.

 

[DevendraRajput]

Hi @Oscar
To be honest, the number of nuclear warheads is irrelevant when the economic disparity has ballooned to such levels. In fact it is this very thought of Pakistani "establishment" that has made the differential 12:1 in India's favour in economy and in a very few years (as early as 3 years) this differential will swell past 15:1. And, with economic clout, India could influence a lot of things on global stage which will make things a lot more difficult for Pakistan-- all without ever having to resort to nuclear blackmail.

Well, since this is a very marcab thread, we are talking about very sick topics.

Otherwise, best option for India is to just forget about Pakistan and even give it Kashmir valley to take care of. As such Kashmir Valley will be biggest albatross across their neck. It will also make Kashmiri regret the day they demanded a separate state.

 

[Guynextdoor]

I absolutely agree and you echo my reply to Raj if you can read between the lines.

India has already nullified the nuclear threat to it for all intents and purposes for now as things stand.

India has nullified all military threat not because of economy but by trifurcation of Kashmir state. Scrapping of art 370 is just a point of argument. When 60% of J&K which is ladak, buddhist was removed and then 20% of the state- mixed population of Jammu is removed only 20% to 30% muslim majority Kashmir valley remains which Pak can legally claim.

Now the choice for Pak Army- do you want to go to nuclear war for a territory that's 3 times the size of Bangalore Airport? Answer is obvious. Forget it and focus on more important things.

all hail modi. Modi brought peas to the subcontinent.

 

[KAAFIR]

India has only one nuclear problem and that is Pakistan. China India are mature enough to not even fight with bullets, let alone nuclear weapons. Remember, China never said Nuclear once in its statements and Indian government never said Nuclear once in respect to China. Compare this with Pakistan where anyone in foreign office can not finish speech or diplomatic statement without "India" and "Nuclear".

Indian nuclear weapons are only and only for fighting Pakistan. For China, its a deterrence at worst. Unlike Pakistan, China is not stupid enough to fight a nuclear war. Actually, if China wants to fight a nuclear war with India, it will make Pakistan fight it instead.

Bold part. This is possible scenario for future Whenever China will feel its existence threatened by India.
India must lase one of China's enemy neighbours with nukes to counter this move.

 

[Guru Dutt]

India has nullified all military threat not because of economy but by trifurcation of Kashmir state. Scrapping of art 370 is just a point of argument. When 60% of J&K which is ladak, buddhist was removed and then 20% of the state- mixed population of Jammu is removed only 20% to 30% muslim majority Kashmir valley remains which Pak can legally claim.

Now the choice for Pak Army- do you want to go to nuclear war for a territory that's 3 times the size of Bangalore Airport? Answer is obvious. Forget it and focus on more important things.

all hail modi. Modi brought peas to the subcontinent.

problem is Pakistan Army of late has become morally bankrupt and pakistani youth as a mojority stopped supporting Pakistani army specially the current top brass and that fear of so called establishment in its media or social media is not even 10% as it was 3-4 years back .

..in short we dont need any nuclear weapon for pakistan ...apna Imran khan uske liye kaafee hai ..

as for china both India and China very well know none is going to use it against each other no matter what social media fan bois from land of the pure dream about

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Once again - Quid pro quo plus is guaranteed regardless of the geography or distance or whatever comes in between.

And I wont go beyond that due to lack of presentable evidence.

However ,
The question no cult nationalist on either side will ask is not of whether Pakistani capabilities are still able to ensure a warhead can land anywhere in India they wish but whether they will fly.

Pakistan for years has perfected the art of compromising field practitioners in India through a combination of money and the world’s oldest profession and gets information on systems and capabilities primarily through HUMINT or cyber espionage(made much more difficult by India’s lead in cyber security practitioners and implementation)

India on the other hand has focused on compromising leadership - it has had breakthroughs in one to two cases for practitioners but not at the scale Pakistan manages. This is not due to cyber security practices which are laughable for the majority and embarrassing/depressing in many specific cases - but due to the fact that Pakistani counter intelligence has a much much more potent foe in the US espionage services who have compromised a lot and why Pakistani OPSEC is focused on tackling that and paranoia was ingrained from the 70s.

Now compromise of leadership does not always mean moles or double agents(although that is somewhat true in certain cases). Leadership be it of a nation or microsoft looks at very different KPIs and listen to different music than the rest of the org. They are also MUCH more scrutinized and are not a source for divulging operational secrets(nor are they usually concerned with them… Satya Nadella has no information on Azure Clouds cryptography keys nor processes).

So compromise can be ensuring impending financial ruin for the country unless certain measures are taken to add another logical layer of obfuscation and delay for twisting the keys and pressing the button.
You can compromise a leader by simply promising a financial lifeline in coordination with other nations having similar goals - say a IMF delay - in return for changing a key person within a critical org who may be a mole.. that way the leader could claim credit and get public credit or whatever interest they have and you get to compromise a practitioner.. or you could ensure in combination by knowledge and facilitation of that said leaders illicit personal gains that if “red lines” are crossed that leader will not provide their okay or delay as much as possible Pakistan’s launch so much so a counterforce from India is successful.

That is the actual threat to Pakistan’s nuclear program - not two additional warheads for chest thumping ignorants nor publicly declared ABM tests or deployments. That threat has prevailed greatly - and as you so rightly state the impact of it will probably not be ever known or tested but then that is the true victory in deterrence and protection India has achieved.

Bro - I can't disclose more.

But I will hint that I have work for ministry in defence, south block - Delhi, as a security associate engineer thru third party company.

And just will add that systems being used there those are not connected with global internet service. It's very hard to reach and crack them - even I was not allowed enter their, those are managed by internal resources... I can't say much.

I could only say that situation of security defence - IT has changed a lot compared to past 10 years... I am working on WAF etc tools that works at application layer and many tools related to cybersecurity.

And regarding coding or software, even if it's getting compromised - I know - coding gets changed rapidly and it's encrypted way. Normal employees of DRDO and other defence organisations, don't have access to it. They usually know about the high level (basic concepts) of information but not low and dept level.

Anyway - Pakistan has geographical disadvantages and believe mainly docs on offensive, I don't see any major planning for missiles defence.

Might indian cities are vulnerable today but surely in coming years will have kind of defence missiles protection. Might you say, it would not be affecting but it is always better have to something than nothing, doesn't matter if chances for defence even 50%.

I always agreed that Indian ministers are ch**tiya, that manage those things and mess up... But as I understood while working - only top class ministers get those dept details, rest just overview and basic

 

[Waz]

Anyway - Pakistan has geographical disadvantages and believe mainly docs on offensive, I don't see any major planning for missiles defence.

Actually it doesn't. It's heavily mountainous (61%) which act as natural barriers to fallout, and can be places where facilities can be built and safe somewhat from assault.

 

[Waz]

Here is the fact. There is NOTHING Pakistan can do to anhilate India. That is simply not possible. There are far too many of them. And likely they will be the first to strike. If they struck you first, nothing of your capabilities will survive, obviously but lets say all capability survive by some miracle, it is still not enough to kill more than a billion of Indians.

Agreed India cannot be annihilated and nor can it either wipe out Pakistan's facilities in a strike either.
Most of you are too young to remember the first Gulf War, where the greatest air armada launched failed to still stop Iraqi missile launches well into the course of the war. You won't stop Pakistani launches be them from silos or mobile launchers. Also no, Indian nukes won't destroy everything, especially facilities deep inside mountainous terrain.
What about fallout have you thought about this? India is 70% flat lands where fallout will spread far and wide. Sure India will have more survivors but what will be their fate. Everything from the soil to water will be poison, which will lead to hundreds of millions dying.
Let's leave the whole nuclear talk as there's a reason why rivals who both have them dare not use them.