You changed your POV within the span of two posts. Its fine but you were quite enthusiastically supporting the idea before that making a deal with a democratic president is some how better than with a Republican one which is just not true as you are agreeing now.
What? This flip flop never occurred. Not sure what you are referring. Seems to be reading comprehension issues on your end. The whole debate started with you pushing back on my notion that Iran shouldnt have signed JCPoA with a Democrat president and did it with Republican. You can re-read prior posts and let me know where this flip flop occurred.
nobody here supports strategic policies of IRI or the mistakes Khamenei made ever since Ahamdinejad's first tenure, that you have to keep explaining us.
Quite a number of people did and still do support the decisions Iran made. And the ones that no longer do were quite pro IRI until they could no longer deny the direction we are heading. This place was one big echo chamber. And the ‘let the sink in’ reference was not me lecturing you, but about Putin calling Iranian leadership crazy in 2003 long before the Ahmadinejad tenure, it happened during the “peaceful” Khatami era. No global power was taking Iran seriously because they felt this leadership was nothing more than religious fanatics, no different than ISIS or Taliban in their eyes.
You also proclaimed within the last fews that iran was entering into a strategic alliance with Russia. That this time is different. You claimed that Iran was going to reverse AL-31 (either via ToT or Iranian progress) due to some chart that an Iranian official threw up in another bogus press conference. Remember that? Remember the debate we had Dr. Menson? Remember I told you there is zero chance Russia would hand over ToT for Russian jet engines. You were convinced there was this period of strategic alliance with Russia. That alliance instead went to North Korea, not iran.
Putin never thought of Khamenai as anything more than a religious fanatic. And he used him for the Ukraine war then tossed him aside. The reformists pushing Western integration didn’t help either.
We have all had bad takes myself included. But let’s not act like you are infallible either. In fact you act in many ways just like me when you speak.
You expect all thousands of missiles to be on TELs 24/7 ?
No. But you cannot say there “thousands of missiles” aimed at PGCC when there isn’t. With such logic, US and Israel have 25,000 cruise missiles “aimed” and thousands of nukes “aimed” at Iran. Theoretical fire power doesn’t mean much as the 12 day war clearly demonstrated. You can have 10,000 missiles but if you struggle to fire even 100 a day, the firepower is muted.
Also please stop quoting Salami and co types as "Iran" said this and that. Countries do propaganda but it means nothing.
So the countless press reporters they paraded around showing of the silos and missile cities and all the military officials (not just Salami) warning of quick response was just propaganda? Khamenai’s speeches were propaganda? Solemani’s speeches were propaganda?
Many on here thought that Israeli bases would be eliminated with a couple hundred missiles. (Maybe you did at one point too, who knows don’t feel like pulling your chat history to prove a random point).
Now suddenly we should disregard everything Iranian officials said as propaganda? So then everyone saying Israeli just barks and never attacks Iran should be shutting up on here instead of continuing to run their mouths like fanboys.
Flawed logic. You are assuming that DPRK that relies upon outside help for food will somehow keep firing artillery shells in armed to teeth South Korea and other-side will just keep taking it ?
That’s not what I said at all. Again your reading comprehension is all over the place. It doesn’t matter if the artillery are destroyed after a week. The damage to Seoul in first 24 hours will be extensive and catastrophic. It’s a valid deterrent that many observers know about. North Korea has nothing to lose vs South Korea that has its entire built up industrial base.
Even if I accept this stupid scenario, what happens after this "artillery strikes for hours" ?
The entire point was you saying that North Korea doesn’t have the courage to use Nuclear weapons if its attacked . And I said that isn’t the first lever they will pull. They can do considerable damage with conventional weapons.
What happens if Japan, South Korea, US simultaneously cripple DPRK the state with thousands of PGMs in return or naval blockade DPRK ? they have no airforce or any exceptionally modern layered AD, bits and pieces navy will be blasted within ports.
Same could be said about Iran right now if U.S./Israel attack. Iran’s airforce isn’t going to put up a fight against F-22, F-35, or F-18 and it’s supposed “modern layered AD” was exposed by Israeli drones and couldn’t put up a fight against an opponent who had to fly from 1200 miles everyday (unless you really think everything was hit by air launched BMs).
Also who is gonna fund all this war for DPRK at 15-20 Billion USD GDP ? Chinese ? Russians ? thats not gonna happen.
You do realize Russia and NK have a strategic defense agreement? That includes a mutual defense clause?
How do you think NK even took this massive leap in missile development with its puny GDP? Russia has transferred engines and direct know how. Anyone thinking that some how NK went from this troubled liquid Tapeodong program to a massive multi array of ICBMs/IRBMs in less than a decade with its broke ass GDP (as you allude to) is delusional. It comes directly from Russian and Chinese assistance and tech transfers.
China entered in the Korean War directly and fought the US. In the 60’s. They will not let North Korea become a U.S. satellite banana country. That’s a red line.
So yes both China and Russia will defend North Korea if they are attacked by West or SK first. Unlike Iran which neither party seems in any urgency to even help.
This is literally like some Iranians think IRI will somehow block Strait of Hormuz and mass-missile the entire Persian Gulf Arab oil infrastructure and call it a day lol like there wont be repurcassions by hyperpower US and its allies that control the planet after that. Get real.
You should be telling most of this thread this information. Not me who has already said similar things.
When you boil it down, this entire 25 years was just fake propaganda by this government. They never planned to have an all out war for exactly what you just said now. It was all just a mirage that we all got bamboozled by. This country was the ultimate paper tiger when everyone claimed it was Israel and U.S. who were.
Look at how many planes Saddam shot down in Persian Gulf I & II. Iran couldn’t shoot down a SINGLE Israeli plane despite have air defense systems that Saddam could only dream of. The incompetence is outstanding. The missile force while a bright spot couldn’t keep fire cadence for more than a few days and by day 12 was firing 15-20 missiles a day. Yet delusional people on here say “Israel” asked for the ceasefire. Yeah because they accomplished what the were realistically going to accomplish outside of regime change.
So Russia owns the Venezuelan oil and China is taking bulk of it even after Maduro episode while US is capturing random tankers here and there.
Bulk of what? What are you talking about? Venezuela oil exports was a meager 850,000 mbpd of which most of that goes to China.
So Russia “owning” what oil? The 100,000 barrels a day left over? Is this a joke?
By the way that number doesn’t count the U.S. owned wells (see below). Do you really think Russia has the deep pockets to spend 200B+ required to get Venezuela’s fields developed all for another extra 500,000MBPD? Venezuela is a long way away from exporting oil in big numbers without the U.S. oil companies deep pockets.
Thats not gonna run refinaries.
Again you have no idea what you are talking about.
Oil producer Chevron is set to boost exports of Venezuelan crude to the U.S. to some 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, from 100,000 bpd in December and some 230,000 bpd so far this month,
Four Chevron-PDVSA oil joint ventures are producing between 240,000 and 250,000 bpd of heavy crude grades that are popular among U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. Output cuts applied by PDVSA to some oilfields since early January did not hit Chevron's projects, separate sources said.
Chevron, which for months was the only company authorized by Washington to export Venezuelan oil to the U.S. as part of an exemption to sanctions, is now competing with trading houses Vitol and Trafigura, which earlier this month were granted U.S. licenses to export Venezuelan oil and fuel to the U.S. and other destinations under a flagship $2 billion supply deal.
Oil producer Chevron is set to boost exports of Venezuelan crude to the U.S. to some 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, from 100…
www.marinelink.com
You also claimed in this thread that Iran is sending 5.5MBPD of oil to China when the number by most reputable sources is around 1.5MBPD. I am not sure where you get your energy data from but it’s grossly inaccurate.
Maduro was begging American oil companies to come back because they have historically been the one with a relationship with PDVSA going back decades. How do you think Venezuela got F-16s back in the day? Venezuela was reliant on U.S. oil companies. When they left, it became hyper inflationary conditions and Russia and Iran had to send engineers and materials and condensate to keep what little was working to continue to run.
You grossly and negligently overestimate Russia and China “owning” Venzenula oil.
Even if in future US starts to get some oil from Venzuela, it will be directly paying Russians for that.
This is baseless propaganda, sorry.
They already get oil from Venezuela (as seen above) from their longstanding joint ventures. Many oil companies left in trumps first term due to sanctions but Chevron was allowed to stay.
Maduro wouldn’t have been begging US oil companies to come back if “Russia owned the oil”.
As an Iranian you should know how useless Chinese and Russian companies are at honoring oil/gas development deals in foreign countries. Only the west actually gets shit done. The East and Russia use it as bargaining chips.
Or Khamenei could have used the Khatami era relations with US and tried to normalize IRI with West again considering US-Israel support in 80s-00s (Osirak, Arms deals, Afghanistan and Iraq joint cooperation etc). You are again assuming everyone here is a blind Islamist.
Come on now. Most of era was under Bush administration. How old were you then? Looking back with rose glasses doesn’t do that era justice.
- Rouhani (the FM) offered to give up all enrichment if the west would allow Iran to keep 100 IR-1’s for research so scientists could learn and have a token pilot program. Bush and neocons said no.
- There was the infamous “grand bargain” deal that was sent to the U.S. thru diplomatic channels where Iran offered full cooperation with the West and end for support of terror groups in exchange for removal of embargo and detente. US never responded because the thought it wasn’t real or genuine (allegedly).
Iran DID try to get detente using Afghanistan intel assistance and considerable amount of willingness to negotiate on nuclear program. But Neocons were riding high on toppling Afghanistan and Iraq quickly (this was before quagmires kicked in). So they had no incentive to negotiate with Iran. Once they labeled Iran part of Axis of Evil, they left Iran shocked.
Not to mention most of Iran’s bonehead moves are as 1980-2000 when it did terror attacks around the world as that was the few means it had to retaliate against a superior Western war machine and the Zionists. That wasn’t going to be magically forgiven because Iran got scared at how fast Afghanistan and Iraq fell. But I digress.
It’s quite clear that you too realize that Iran is at a dead end. There is no way for this current leadership to be reintegrated. There is too much baggage and resentment on both sides. So US will continue waiting till Iran has its Soviet Union implosion moment and then negotiate with whatever comes out after. Or it may well attack, but as you said it’s highly unlikely Iran will truly go all out because of ‘what next?’
www.euronews.com
