Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[gambit]

missile defence has to be perfect

missile attack does not

9 / 10 is probably repeatable for another 2-8 waves. then it's not. fatigue sets in and inventories run low and attacker improves. we see it in Ukraine. from 95%+ interception rates to now under 50%.

If there were 10 attackers and 9 were intercepted, you cannot call the overall attack a 'success'.

Now, if you broaden the targeting criteria to say something like 'air base', and that one attacker got thru and hit a taxiway, then maybe you can call that a 'success' for your own morale and propaganda.

I will remind the readers on what a TRUE successful attack looks like...

 

[Nuffle]

Another food for thought, can Iran preemptively strike Israeli airbases preventing the IDAF from attacking ? Somewhat replicating what the IDAF did in the six day war in the late 60's ?
Pounding the IDAF airbases to the point where they cannot launch an air strike?

No. Israel would have a warning time of even a matter of minutes which is enough to take off its fighters.

 

[DevendraRajput]

Yes we understand sarcasm, he may be overstating the entirety of the Jewish American community but he’s not wholly wrong a large segment of that community has way to much influence in American politics on both sides

I don't think its the Jewish american community only that has thumbs in this pie. It is Pentagon, CIA and US defence industry too that has their stakes. Its the perfect opportunity for them too.

Its the civil government that will be against any escalation because that has a lot of lose.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

As Long as Russia is involved and they are pissed US will likely won't dare to get involved

Russians have been waiting to get even for the little side show done recently on their soil (By the way France has imported record Russian Oil , interesting dynamics there)

US ships will be stuck in middle of red sea with cruise missiles coming from Russia and Iran at same time

Playing war game is great when you are pounding on sheap header in Afghanistan who is riding his horse or camel.

It is a different game when you are dealing with Russia who has traversed space gone to places like Venus where no other country has landed, or dealing with Advance SAM systems all over Iran positioned to welcome anyone


Even US is not keen to see Russian's testing out a Nuke

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

Ganbit suffers from Hollywood syndrome. He thinks that when the USA wins in movies it's real. He really thinks that the US is capable of defeating even much more technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations. He must often rewatch Independence Day films, believing that everything is true.

 

[SaadH]

Oh comical ali's brother 2.0 has spoken, no wonder the US has zero credibility left. Your boys took a hit, deal with it and move on.

Comical Ali for all his follies had infinitely more honor than this swamp creature Kirby of the baby killer coaliiton.

 

[Persian Gulf]

If there were 10 attackers and 9 were intercepted, you cannot call the overall attack a 'success'.

what a strange non sequitur

everyone can define their own parameters of success and this depends on the objectives. and the point is 90% interception rate is not sustainable as attrition and fatigue sets in

you should start to listen to some real American experts:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779372449747935549

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779545420622102869

 

[Nuffle]

The idea of immunity is applied against the host. Whether applicable to third party view is a legal gray area.

Only if it's in your head. The Vienna Convention makes it clear that immunity in consulates is independent of anything, furthermore, if the consulate was in fact a diplomatic representation facility, Israel violated international law ONCE AGAIN.

 

[ohyea]

Iran used cheap drones and outdated missiles on the attack in Israel, Israel wasted 1.3 billion dollars of missiles interceptor just to shot Iran cheap drones and outdated missiles down without 100% success rate.

 

[Persian Gulf]

No. Israel would have a warning time of even a matter of minutes which is enough to take off its fighters.

theoretically mass attack of cluster munition warheads can spread shrapnel across the runways, leaving jets with not much places left to land

but in reality airbases are huge and runways can be repaired in a few hours. Israel ABM defences will have to be seriously degraded for this to be plausible

 

[mangekyo]

As Long as Russia is involved and they are pissed US will likely won't dare to get involved

Russians have been waiting to get even for the little side show done recently on their soil (By the way France has imported record Russian Oil , interesting dynamics there)

US ships will be stuck in middle of red sea with cruise missiles coming from Russia and Iran at same time

Playing war game is great when you are pounding on sheap header in Afghanistan who is riding his horse or camel.

It is a different game when you are dealing with Russia who has traversed space gone to places like Venus where no other country has landed, or dealing with Advance SAM systems all over Iran positioned to welcome anyone


Even US is not keen to see Russian's testing out a Nuke

Russia would benefit from a War between Iran and Israel

 

[SaadH]

Lets turn the chess board otherway...

What will Iran do if US and Israel launch a similar barrage targetting its storage facilities of missiles, its command structure, its launchers etc?

Nothing! It will be defanged quite quickly.

How? Israel won't deplete its BM inventory for conventional strikes. Rest of the baby killer coaliiton will not risk permanent destruction of their bases and assets in ME from where they launch their standoff weapons and LACM's...

 

[Shawnee]

If there were 10 attackers and 9 were intercepted, you cannot call the overall attack a 'success'.

Now, if you broaden the targeting criteria to say something like 'air base', and that one attacker got thru and hit a taxiway, then maybe you can call that a 'success' for your own morale and propaganda.

I will remind the readers on what a TRUE successful attack looks like...

If your intention is to saturate the AD system with much cheaper targets, 90 percent is your initial goal.

In a real war, you launch 10X more and then your success rate is more

 

[Shadihassan28]

If there were 10 attackers and 9 were intercepted, you cannot call the overall attack a 'success'.

Now, if you broaden the targeting criteria to say something like 'air base', and that one attacker got thru and hit a taxiway, then maybe you can call that a 'success' for your own morale and propaganda.

I will remind the readers on what a TRUE successful attack looks like...

Are you comparing a country who had its air defenses almost completely destroyed and aircraft at the time that could fly farther than most anti aircraft missiles could reach at the time and the fact America had most of Europes backing it. It’s weird Serbs killed many Muslims America was outraged Israel targeting Palestinians and putting their acts on tik tok Snapchat fb and American government barely blinks weird right. Also another comparison you forgot Israel had hundreds of fighters protecting its airspace because their amazing system in reality couldn’t have stopped the sheer amount of weapons heading to them, I don’t think Serbia had hundreds of Russian planes protecting its airspace

 

[Shawnee]

Lets turn the chess board otherway...

What will Iran do if US and Israel launch a similar barrage targetting its storage facilities of missiles, its command structure, its launchers etc?

Nothing! It will be defanged quite quickly.

Do you know what is the best Iranian AD system:

1. Attack on military bases, factories, refineries and desalination plants and oil and gas and tankers and ships.

2. Confiscating tankers and ships to retrieve losses

This is a solid AD system. Works well.

Who loses more in an election year?