Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[mangekyo]

Its a good point but western analyst have been at pains to explain how the S300 is ineffective against advanced Israeli aircraft. But the S300 system is not the only thing that Iran has in its arsenal.

But they would have to come up with some analysis that concludes Russia transferred S400 technology or some other secret tech to Iran. If Iranian BMs managed to beat state of the art western ADs, and Iranian AD managed to beat state of the art western stealth technology. That is a huge concern for NATO countries, especially after all these years where they have downplayed Irans military capabilities, and done everything they can to paint Russia as an existential threat to Europe. No one in Europe would feel safe, people would start panicking.

 

[RescueRanger]

But they would have to come up with some analysis that concludes Russia transferred S400 technology or some other secret tech to Iran. If Iranian BMs managed to beat state of the art western ADs, and Iranian AD managed to beat state of the art western stealth technology. That is a huge concern for NATO countries, especially after all these years where they have downplayed Irans military capabilities, and done everything they can to paint Russia as an existential threat to Europe. No one in Europe would feel safe, people would start panicking.

This is exactly the scenario that is part of Israel's wet-dream.

 

[last-soul]

There

But they would have to come up with some analysis that concludes Russia transferred S400 technology or some other secret tech to Iran. If Iranian BMs managed to beat state of the art western ADs, and Iranian AD managed to beat state of the art western stealth technology. That is a huge concern for NATO countries, especially after all these years where they have downplayed Irans military capabilities, and done everything they can to paint Russia as an existential threat to Europe. No one in Europe would feel safe, people would start panicki

There is a reason why Israels is reluctant to test the waters...as it is Iran has already demonstrated the ability to hit them despite their AD systems...and now if they can protect their airspace with their ADs, the baby killers are in real sh*t.

 

[mangekyo]

This is exactly the scenario that is part of Israel's wet-dream.

If he decides to attack and the attack fails, Iran then launches a much larger attack in return. He will have failed in Gaza, failed defending Israel against Iran, and even failed in attacking Iran. Now on top of that, imagine if Iran unleashes Hezbollah. It would be the final blow to his political career.

 

[last-soul]

If he decides to attack and the attack fails, Iran then launches a much larger attack in return. He will have failed in Gaza, failed defending Israel against Iran, and even failed in attacking Iran. Now on top of that, imagine if Iran unleashes Hezbollah. It would be the final blow to his political career.

Not just his career...I can guarantee you atleast 50% of the squatters will run back to their Europeans capital in no time!

 

[RescueRanger]

If he decides to attack and the attack fails, Iran then launches a much larger attack in return. He will have failed in Gaza, failed defending Israel against Iran, and even failed in attacking Iran. Now on top of that, imagine if Iran unleashes Hezbollah. It would be the final blow to his political career.

The war inside Gaza has stalled for Israel - the recent report from Chatham House was critical of Israeli tactics inside Gaza - I was listening to a War Historian and Professor of Defense strategy at RUSI who stated that there is no clear military strategy for Israel inside Gaza and he is 100% on the mark - but they didn't give him much airtime on BBC World Service and cut to an Israeli IDF spokesperson who continued to spread his BS Hasbara.

 

[mangekyo]

Not just his career...I can guarantee you atleast 50% of the squatters will run back to their Europeans capital in no time!

But he might be crazy enough to try. If he doesn't attack, his career might be over, his trial will continue and he will be sentenced to prison. He has no choice but to attack.

The war inside Gaza has stalled for Israel - the recent report from Chatham House was critical of Israeli tactics inside Gaza - I was listening to a War Historian and Professor of Defense strategy at RUSI who stated that there is no clear military strategy for Israel inside Gaza and he is 100% on the mark - but they didn't give him much airtime on BBC World Service and cut to an Israeli IDF spokesperson who continued to spread his BS Hasbara.

I have the same impression. They wanted to eradicate Hamas and free all the prisoners. They haven't eradicated Hamas, and they haven't freed all the prisoners. There is nothing left to bomb now. What are they going to do? Continue exhaust themselves in Gaza? Bomb more hospitals and ruin whatever is left of their global reputation? Leave and declare their adventure in Gaza was a failure? Then we are back to Netanyahus career being over and he will face jail time. The guy is going down no matter what, and it looks like he is going to bring down Israel with him.

 

[the saint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780652043318763735

 

[RescueRanger]

But he might be crazy enough to try. If he doesn't attack, his career might be over, his trial will continue and he will be sentenced to prison. He has no choice but to attack.

I have the same impression. They wanted to eradicate Hamas and free all the prisoners. They haven't eradicated Hamas, and they haven't freed all the prisoners. There is nothing left to bomb now. What are they going to do? Continue exhaust themselves in Gaza? Bomb more hospitals and ruin whatever is left of their global reputation? Leave and declare their adventure in Gaza was a failure? Then we are back to Netanyahus career being over and he will face jail time. The guy is going down no matter what, and it looks like he is going to bring down Israel with him.

Their aim has always been the annexation of Gaza and continuation of settlements - the BS about eradicating Hamas was just an excuse to get the IDF back into Gaza.

 

[mangekyo]

Their aim has always been the annexation of Gaza and continuation of settlements - the BS about eradicating Hamas was just an excuse to get the IDF back into Gaza.

How are they going to do that, is the IDF going to stay in Gaza and fight Hamas forever?

 

[Persian Gulf]

they will require refueling points. it has to be supported by either US tankers over Iraq or by Saudi to make it happen..

The best option is to use Jericho 2 conventional/nuclear, and SLCM Popeye, which can carry 200kton nuke weapon from Daphne class sub.

they have very low numbers of Jericho, likely virtually all fitted with nuclear warheads, and doubt they want to give Iran practice in intercepting their main nuclear deterrence

they only have 4x Popeye Turbo per submarine and also mostly fitted with nuclear warheads. even if not, 4-20 subsonic cruise missiles is not going to do much

I think the chances of Israel responding are 50-50. The resolve shown by Iran has demoralized them. The 50% chance is due to the public pressure.

If Israel bombs any place in Iran this time, Iran should aim to wreck havoc in Israel with all its might. If Israel targets civilians, Iran should also target civilians. If Israel targets hospitals, Iran should also target military hospitals. If Israel targets educational institutions, Iran should bomb the educational institutions in Israel. The ratio should be 1:10.. every one Iranian citizen should result in 10 Israelis. 1 building should result in 10 Israeli buildings. One Iranian soldier should result in the death of 10 Israeli soldiers.

I fully agree

but if they strike inside iran (I give <50% chance), I think they will strike a military target

IRGC has had enough, we are desperate for another round with the Nazi child killing bastards

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780655469477900452

 

[Shadihassan28]

they have very low numbers of Jericho, likely virtually all fitted with nuclear warheads, and doubt they want to give Iran practice in intercepting their main nuclear deterrence

they only have 4x Popeye Turbo per submarine and also mostly fitted with nuclear warheads. even if not, 4-20 subsonic cruise missiles is not going to do much


I fully agree

but if they strike inside iran (I give <50% chance), I think they will strike a military target

IRGC has had enough, we are desperate for another round with the Nazi child killing bastards

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780655469477900452

Iran or Hezbollah now needs to start changing the equation drastically start sending in covert teams into Israel like Israel sends into iran. We have seen hezbollah do it to an extent over the years in northern Israel send a 3 to 12 man team to take out leaders in Israel, Israel is going to attack Hezbollah more forcefully than they have in the past might as well preempt the Israelis and strike first, taking out a Ben gvir or smotrich is doing everyone a favor if they are targeted world isn’t going to weep.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran or Hezbollah now needs to start changing the equation drastically start sending in covert teams into Israel like Israel sends into iran. We have seen hezbollah do it to an extent over the years in northern Israel send a 3 to 12 man team to take out leaders in Israel, Israel is going to attack Hezbollah more forcefully than they have in the past might as well preempt the Israelis and strike first, taking out a Ben gvir or smotrich is doing everyone a favor if they are targeted world isn’t going to weep.

Israel is a mini fortress with short borders surrounded by walls and fences with everyone being a rabid militant settler with military training and heavily armed and racist

not easy to infiltrate such an entity, but Hezbollah likely has some tunnels into north Israel

 

[RescueRanger]

How are they going to do that, is the IDF going to stay in Gaza and fight Hamas forever?

They have already annexed 5km of land around Gaza as a buffer zone and have allocated 5 billion USD to expand settlements- armed settlers just like zone zone B. That is their plan.

 

[Abid123]

but if they strike inside iran (I give <50% chance), I think they will strike a military target

Nuclear facility instead?