Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[mangekyo]

It’s not military capability, it’s political problems.

Khamenai is a dove more or less. Doesn’t like direct conflict and doesn’t like kinetic actions. Complete opposite of his predecessor (Khomeini) that embraced conflict to achieve one’s vision as a Hawk.

On top of that you have the corrupt “founding” families and those tied to their circle (oligarchs, political Allies, elite) who have no interest for conflict while they make money busting US sanctions. So they too put pressure on Khamenai to show restraint because they have a good thing going and why disrupt the Apple cart.

Then you have the IRGC, which many think are bunch of hardliners. Far from it, the IRGC itself has competing viewpoints like any organization. For example, some voices within the IRGC in 2011 didn’t want to interfere in Syrian civil war and join the war and thought it was better to negotiate a power sharing agreement with the West in a post-Assad world similar to how Iraq is now governed. Lucky they didn’t listen to that crowd because Syria right now would be the Arabian version of Ukraine for the West.

Which brings me to my point: it’s not military capability that holds Iran back it’s the factions that make up the opaque power structure in Iran do not want direct conflict. After all, from 1980’s to 2000’s, Iran attacked many Israeli interests around the world when it was just a brand new government with a purged military and security force, let alone its intelligence arm (SAVAK) that was completely destroyed.

So even if IRGC pushes for direct retribution and an aggressive “attack”, many factions (liberals, reformists, bazaaris, centrist, and those who care only about keeping the status quo and making money) will push back and say no.

Khamenai then has to appease most of the Republic and also has his own viewpoint (which is notably dovish).

You make some good points from time to time. But how is it not military capability? Our military is strong compared to the region. But compared to the US? No chance

Our only military capability worth mentioning is missiles, which they previously showed they are very capable of defending against. Not to mention they have missiles of their own.

How long would we be able to sustain a shock and awe campaign similar to what they did to the Iraqis? How long would we survive after they take out all of our refineries?

 

[R2D2]

Instead of a spectacular missile attacks on Israel like last time, Iran should open the Syrian Front on Golan Heights with Israel. This should be a Guerrilla front with hit and run attacks and also copy Hezbollah missile and drone attacks but on a larger scale. Secondly, Hezbollah should also increase the heat considerably on its front in Lebanon. This will roast Israel and divide its forces on three fronts and will give a breathing space to the Gazans. Secondly, cooperation should be developed on the African coast to target Israel's main ports directly and threaten shipping in the Mediterranean.

 

[Mehdipersian]

You make some good points from time to time. But how is it not military capability? Our military is strong compared to the region. But compared to the US? No chance

Our only military capability worth mentioning is missiles, which they previously showed they are very capable of defending against. Not to mention they have missiles of their own.

How long would we be able to sustain a shock and awe campaign similar to what they did to the Iraqis? How long would we survive after they take out all of our refineries?

Iran can easily slaughter Israelis and Americans in the region.
Until now, only Iran had warned them, but they did not understand these warnings.
There is a need for bloodshed and conflict for future peace in the region

 

[tsunset]

Iran can easily slaughter Israelis and Americans in the region.
Until now, only Iran had warned them, but they did not understand these warnings.
There is a need for bloodshed and conflict for future peace in the region

As they can, want and will do 100% on Iran for psychological/terrorism reasons that is anchored in the western white, neocon, Jewish Christian, Israel funding leaders

They will not hesitate to target bus stops and crowded area under the classic "there was 2 terrorists here so it's justified" and kill 100+ civilians at once with 2000lbs bombs (what they do on Gaza nearly every week/month), Hamas doesn't have the tools to retaliate properly, Iran has

This is why a plan to target civilians has to exist for any nation in the world, how should X retaliate against X that is killing massacring everyone on purpose for psychological and terrorist reasons? (as a last resort), missiles should be launched at bus stops and crowded areas, the western white brutality, madness and its insane crimes on the weak needs to be answered with the same methods (again as a last resort, not freely)

 

[jauk]

As they can, want and will do 100% on Iran for psychological/terrorism reasons that is anchored in the western white, neocon, Jewish Christian, Israel funding leaders

They will not hesitate to target bus stops and crowded area under the classic "there was 2 terrorists here so it's justified" and kill 100+ civilians at once with 2000lbs bombs (what they do on Gaza nearly every week/month), Hamas doesn't have the tools to retaliate properly, Iran has

This is why a plan to target civilians has to exist for any nation in the world, how should X retaliate against X that is killing massacring everyone on purpose for psychological and terrorist reasons? (as a last resort), missiles should be launched at bus stops and crowded areas, the western white brutality, madness and its insane crimes on the weak needs to be answered with the same methods (again as a last resort, not freely)

There are no civilians in Zionia.

 

[mangekyo]

Iran can easily slaughter Israelis and Americans in the region.
Until now, only Iran had warned them, but they did not understand these warnings.
There is a need for bloodshed and conflict for future peace in the region

And what happens after Iran easily slaughter Americans in the region? They will only sit and watch?

It took us 8 years and a million lives to reach a stalemate with the Iraqis. It took US 6 days to capture Baghdad.

 

[jauk]

And what happens after Iran easily slaughter Americans in the region? They will only sit and watch?

It took us 8 years and a million lives to reach a stalemate with the Iraqis. It took US 6 days to capture Baghdad.

Incorrect AND irrelevant.

 

[Mehdipersian]

And what happens after Iran easily slaughter Americans in the region? They will only sit and watch?

It took us 8 years and a million lives to reach a stalemate with the Iraqis. It took US 6 days to capture Baghdad.

After that is all-out war.

Iran's capabilities are not the same as in the 80s.

 

[Tehrani021]

And what happens after Iran easily slaughter Americans in the region? They will only sit and watch?

It took us 8 years and a million lives to reach a stalemate with the Iraqis. It took US 6 days to capture Baghdad.

Did you seriously compare 1980s Iran with Iran today, and 1980s Iraq with Iraq in 2003? Just stop commenting.

 

[tsunset]

After that is all-out war.

Iran's capabilities are not the same as in the 80s.

80s.

It doesn't really matter as US capabilities also evolved with time which is normal, there is surely many differences between 2003 Iran and 2024 Iran, the US also didn't and failed to impose its influence on the region and now Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria are Iran aligned, even if the US invaded some of them, they lost them very quickly, then realised that there is nothing to do but leave, betray Kurds and fund reactionnary states and Israel

Iraq's capabilities in 2003 are also not the same as 1990 when it was funded by western countries, China and USSR and was taking billion dollar gifts from Saudis including plans and tools to make WMDs, which they did made and used during Iran Iraq war, it is not reported beside doubtful (mostly lies) US documents that testify Iraq still had WMDs in 2003

It got pounded into oblivion in 1991 by a ton of countries from all around the world and applied massive sanctions (even worse than Iran today) that just blocked everything including food import (unless Iraq agreed to give its oil for food)

So thinking Iraq had the same capabilities as 1991 in 2003 is false, it only took 12 years to remove a massive part of their capabilities they had in 1990 and invade it with relative ease with a coalition

 

[mangekyo]

After that is all-out war.

Iran's capabilities are not the same as in the 80s.

Which brings us back to my questions: How long can Iran sustain a shock and awe campaign? How long can we survive when they take out all of our refineries?

If you think we can match US firepower you are delusional.

 

[jauk]

Which brings us back to my questions: How long can Iran sustain a shock and awe campaign? How long can we survive when they take out all of our refineries?

If you think we can match US firepower you are delusional.

Is the moon made out of cheese and is it feta.

 

[Khorasan Black banners]

We Khurasanis and Yamanis will destroy the terrorist child killer regime in the worst way of possible

 

[Lulldapull]

Which brings us back to my questions: How long can Iran sustain a shock and awe campaign? How long can we survive when they take out all of our refineries?

If you think we can match US firepower you are delusional.

but shock n awe campaign from where? Aircraft carriers?

Really? Are you joking like an LA hamshehri? while swallowing chelo kabab? without bothering to even chew?

 

[Immortals]

Iran can easily slaughter Israelis and Americans in the region.
Until now, only Iran had warned them, but they did not understand these warnings.
There is a need for bloodshed and conflict for future peace in the region

2.5 weeks what you waiting for? The Imam Mahdi to show up and tell you to strike? Talk about delusions of grandeur.

Russia can wipe out the planet many times over, yet Ukraine is now on its soil taking a chunk of Russian territory for the first time since WW2.

Theoretical Capability =/= Usable Capability

Iran too has a decent conventional theoretical capability, however that is reserved for all but the most extreme scenarios (invasion, hit with nuclear strike, etc).

Iran’s doesn’t have the will power (much like Russia) to use its theoretical capability in any capacity outside of imminent threat to its survival.