Israeli missile defences (deployed) - assessment and strategies

[hussain]

This thread is about "Israeli missile defences (deployed)", so no, I don't have to factor in another country's missile defences.

TBH, just limiting this thread to single POV would be unfair. In case the genocidal maniacs are attacked by anyone, it just wont be their AD systems defending, but ships in the Red Sea, Mediterranean, Persian Gulf etc as well.

A realistic approach would be to count not only zionist assets, but their allies assets as well, most of which have already been deployed.

 

[Mr Iran Eye]

I love your speculations but in my opinion, there will be surprise packages in several spheres at the same time. For the moment Iran has mastered the card game well, they are excellent.

And for defense, the Mesbah artillery system will play a very big role in last-second interceptions as well, I believe that Iran will be very surprising in high-level magnetic interference

 

[Afif]

Overview of deployed Israeli air defences:

• Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries
• THAAD: unknown (0-1 batteries)
• Patriot (PAC-2): 3-4 batteries
• David's Sling: 2 batteries
• Iron Dome: 10 batteries

Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries

Presume 2 Arrow-2 batteries and 1 Arrow-3 battery

1 battery = 4-8 launchers
1 launcher = 6 Arrow-2/3

--> each battery has 24-48 Arrow-2 missiles
Arrow-2 = 2 x 8 x 6 = 86 Arrow-2 missiles
Arrow-3 = 1 x 8 x 6 = 48 Arrow-3 missiles
= up to 134 total Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 missile interceptors deployed across Israel at any one time

THAAD: 0-1 batteries (not confirmed)

1 battery = 6 launchers
1 launcher = 8 interceptors

Israel does not have any of its own THAAD systems but the US sent unknown number of launchers to Israel in 2019. Assume 1 battery = up to 48 THAAD missile interceptors deployed (by USA).

Patriot PAC-2 air defence system: 3-4 batteries

1 battery = 6 launchers
1 launcher = 4 PAC-2 (OR 16 PAC-3 missiles)

--> each battery has up to 24 PAC-2 interceptors

Israel has 3-4 Patriot PAC-2 batteries deployed = (3-4) x 6 x 4 = 72-96 PAC-2 missile interceptors deployed at any one time

David's Sling: 2 batteries

1 battery = unknown number of launchers (presume 4-6)
1 launcher = 6-12 Stunner missile interceptors

--> each battery has 24-72 Stunner interceptors

Israel is estimated to have 2 David's Sling batteries deployed = 2 x 24-72 = 48-148 missile interceptors deployed at any one time

Iron Dome: 10 batteries

1 battery = 3-4 launchers
1 launcher = 20 Tamir missile interceptors

--> each battery has 60-80 Tamir interceptors

= 20 x (3-4) x 10 = 600-800 Iron Dome interceptors deployed across all of Israel at any one time

Relevance for Iranian ballistic missiles?

Iron Dome and David's Sling are not designed to intercept MRBMs so are of limited relevance.

Not really, Devid's Sling is pretty much capable of intercepting MRBM. I mean they literally wanted to developed Patriot Pac-4 by incorporating Stunner interceptors. And it was developed to replace old patriot batteries in Israeli service.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Not really, Devid's Sling is pretty much capable of intercepting MRBM. I mean they literally wanted to developed Patriot Pac-4 by incorporating Stunner interceptors. And it was developed to replace old patriot batteries in Israeli service.

David's Sling is designed to intercept tactical BMs and so far has only been used to intercept drones and rockets

 

[Afif]

David's Sling is designed to intercept tactical BMs and so far has only been used to intercept drones and rockets

Nope and yes.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Nope and yes.

show proof that David's Sling was ever successfully used or tested against a MRBM target

 

[That_Guy]

Iran certainly has the capability to overwhelm Israeli defenses quite easily, but with the US adding to those capabilities it'd hard to say if Iran would succeed.

 

[Developereo]

The problem is this load out doesn’t assume the ongoing efforts in Red Sea.

Many destroyers are running low on ammo due to expending countless missiles to defend against various Houthi munitions. Add in Ukraine and Israel wars that are consuming US/NATO supply of AD missiles and you have a global shortage:

So I’m curious how many munitions these ships currently have on hand. Likely will be to help for a limited salvo event + CM + drone type event. But if Israel escalates and it becomes a shootout than all of these ships will run out quickly and there just isn’t a huge supply of AD missiles to go around between all parties (Ukraine, US, Jordan, Israel)

This is the important point: the Israeli coalition cannot afford to just keep intercepting Iranian missiles so they will immediately target launch sites and other assets within Iran.

It goes without saying that the US is keeping a very close eye on any movement of assets within Iran since last few days.

This thing will escalate very quickly.

 

[Immortals]

This is the important point: the Israeli coalition cannot afford to just keep intercepting Iranian missiles so they will immediately target launch sites and other assets within Iran.

“Immediately target launch sites”

How? Israel is 1000KM+ away from Iran. Iranian launch sites are buried into mountains. This isn’t Gaza or Syria or Lebanon than an F-16 can make a 10 min flight and hit launch sites.

These missiles are on TELs that come out of mountain fire and go back into the mountain to reload. This is not even counting the mountain silo based launch sites or numerous other hidden sites. Iran is a massive country.

Israel hasn’t been able to stop rocket barrages from Lebanon and couldn’t stop rocket barrages from Gaza war until it had boots on the ground and even now rocket launches still happen.

Yet you think Israel will be able to reliably target Iranian TELs from 1000KM away?

No chance.

 

[BHAN85]

Israel can do jamming on GNSS signals over all their territory.

How could a Iran long range missile hit something with accuracy in that scenario?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-and-lebanese-users-of-dating-apps-are-made-strange-bedfellows-by-war-baffled-gps/

 

[RescueRanger]

Israel can do jamming on GNSS signals over all their territory.

How could a Iran long range missile hit something with accuracy in that scenario?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-and-lebanese-users-of-dating-apps-are-made-strange-bedfellows-by-war-baffled-gps/

Drone swarming.

 

[Developereo]

Yet you think Israel will be able to reliably target Iranian TELs from 1000KM away?

The US has CBG and submarines with cruise missiles capable of doing all this.

If large numbers of missiles rain on Israel, the US will get directly involved in an offensive capacity, not just defensive or giving intelligence to Israel.

It goes without saying that hundreds of Tomahawks are already positioned to strike any part of Iran.

P.S. You can see how ZioNazi Germany has been jumping up and down to be first in line to help Israel in Gaza. The same is true of any US administration, especially in an election year when Genocide Joe is already losing badly to Trump. Congress and the Executive will race each other to see who can take credit to be the first one to declare war on Iran.

 

[BHAN85]

Drone swarming.

But what guidance method? We are talking about thousand miles.

How can know drones where the hell they are?

GNSS wont be available in Israel in war time.

 

[KingQamaR]

Each SM-2 missiles that the US ships use to shoot down drones cost US tax payers $2,000,000. The drone costs $500.

 

[Immortals]

The US has CBG and submarines with cruise missiles capable of doing all this.

If large numbers of missiles rain on Israel, the US will get directly involved in an offensive capacity, not just defensive or giving intelligence to Israel.

CMs are useless against hardnered structure like a mountain blast door reinforced base or bunkers with 30 meters of reinforced concrete above.

A TEL can leave it’s mountain base fire and be back inside before CM gets to the targeting site. CMs only travel 250-400KM/hr. Iran is not a tiny country and US would have to fire CMs from Red Sea or Indian Ocean.

This assumes the CMs make it thru the Iranian air defense network. Which I’m sure if you fire 100 CMs per salvo some will make it thru.

It goes without saying that hundreds of Tomahawks are already positioned to strike any part of Iran.

It goes without saying those are fixed targets and TEL is a moving target. Iran has already planned for such an engagement for decades. Hence why their missiles are stored in nuclear strike proof locations.

Lastly US hasn’t even been able to stop Houthi’s from firing BMs, CMs, drones after countless airstrikes. A country with no air defense system.

So the chances that US will be able to put a dent into Iran’s vast BM arsenal is low. Iran will be able to fire hundred missile per day for months if needed.

You given way too much credit to the Western war machine. It excels at killing women, children, and Taliban like insurgents. While it’s important not to underestimate the enemy, western war machine is overhyped and will be exposed within this century for what it is. Stay tuned.