PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[TsAr]

I don’t think so, the Rafale is kept to be the strike edge and for air superiority against 4th gen.

Both Sukhoi options seem to be in doldrums considering the situation with Russian industry.
Perhaps a F-35IN might actually be doable but it would probably serve India to do more arm twisting like Israel did to get its components.

Either way, this development is not surprising but rather fait accompli for the PAF.

I doubt India would get a say on the subsystems on F-35 like Israel. This is one of the reasons that is stopping UAE from getting F-35

 

[Fatman17]

 

[Corax]

There have been reports that an air force version has been recently built and tested, which appears to show slightly different airframe, wing, and tail plane configuration. My guess would be that, if this is the case, the PAF were waiting for this development, and it could possibly indicate commitment from the PLAF to acquire a land based air force version in large numbers, which would certainly give PAF confidence in the type.

 

[arjunk]

I'd prioritize economy because 1) Better economy buys you a better army later on and 2) Pakistan's economy in particular is in a bad shape.

These acquisitions are made within the budget already allocated by the civilian gov't. And that budget is decreasing every year for PAF.

 

[FuturePAF]

There have been reports that an air force version has been recently built and tested, which appears to show slightly different airframe, wing, and tail plane configuration. My guess would be that, if this is the case, the PAF were waiting for this development, and it could possibly indicate commitment from the PLAF to acquire a land based air force version in large numbers, which would certainly give PAF confidence in the type.

The PAF is probably waiting for the engines to mature and the financing to be made avialable. In the meantime they are building out the logistical infrastructure needed to support the jets; AC hangers to protect the coatings on the jets and reduce the maintenance burden on the maintainers, for example.

 

[kambhakt]

And F-35 costs 89M, Gripen is just overpriced. You're forgetting economy of scale, J-35 will have at least 3-400 orders from PLAN alone, and who knows how many if PLAAF also purchase it.

I did not know that PLAN were planning such a large air wing.

 

[FuturePAF]

They sure do keep talking about it

They like to talk a lot because they need to keep their engineers employed doing something. But in the past year, the talk has shifted to bringing in private defense contractors.

On the issue of the F-35, they don’t seem to trust America, and are waiting on the French to build out their FCAS to procure. The FCAS stealth skin is estimated at $1 Billion per square meter, with their current technology and construction infrastructure, per one estimate, so it will be a while before the FCAS leaves the lab.

I did not know that PLAN were planning such a large air wing.

The J-15T is a transitional platform, and may not be combat effective for more than a decade. The PLAN has two ski-jump carriers (~30 fighters), is building full sized carriers (~70 fighters) and may even field some J-35 on the Type 076. Accounting for spare planes to cover attrition, 300-400 J-35s is a reasonable estimate (by 2040; max production at 24-30 a year if taking into account exports is plausible) before a 6th Gen platform is developed in the late 2030s, and begun to be fielded in the 2040s.

I really hope WS19 gets ready as soon as possible so when Pakistan gets first J-31 they are with ws19 engine.

Hopefully the WS-19 will be in the 11-12 ton thrust range so it can field 2D TVC to futher reduce its IR and Rear aspect RCS. The risk is a thrust penalty of 15% over an engine with no TVC nozzles, but I think this is the data on 3D TVC, not sure what the penalty is for 2D TVC.

Airshow China 2022: China displays thrust vectoring engines

China has displayed two turbofan engines with thrust vectoring control (TVC) nozzles during the Airshow China 2022 exhibition being held in Zhuhai from 8 to 13 November.

www.janes.com

 

[Quwa]

Ideally we would want a 1:1 replacement, but if the PAF can fine tune all it’s jets to have availability, and longer loiter time with more efficient engines and CFTs on the JF-17s and J-10s, the PAF could operate a smaller overall fleet of manned platforms with similar fighters on station as with a larger fleet doing what it is doing nowadays.

Furthermore, the KAAN is being developed by a nation with considerable insight into the F-35 and expected to meet and potential beat Greek F-16s, Rafales, and F-35s. Procuring even two to three squadrons of KAAN fighters in the Mid-2030s, will go along way to deal with any aircraft the IAF fields, especially in the naval domain. The long range of the KAAN, and possible ability to super-cruise, will allow it to cover the Navy if a squadron is based somewhere near the coast.

Finally, the weapons being developed by Turkey may offer something the PAF finds is a better fit then a similar Chinese weapons system, so operating a platform that can field it to the best of ability will add just that level of quality the PAF is seeking. The psychological benefit of fielding a “western” fighter specifically designed (with the associated electronic threat library) to counter the Rafale and F-35 will also be a deference against the IAF.

I think the PAF is bifurcating very sharply between its 'tactical' (area denial, point defence) and 'strategic' (OCA, deep strike, projection) roles.

On one end, the investment in long-range SAMs could help reinforce the area denial and point defence needs, especially from an early response standpoint. Availability of JF-17C and J-10CE offers the PAF solid multirole fighters for the air-to-air needs. The need for F-7-like numbers isn't there.

OTOH, a big investment in bigger fighters like J-31 and, possibly, KAAN can create two effects. First, you get a credible long-range, offensive capability that is beyond anything the PAF has now. Second, I'd argue the presence of such fighters (and the potential offensive retaliation) helps build a conventional deterrence case. A proper UCAV element showing pervasive deep strike capabilities (with ability to soak attrition) reinforces this.

So, combined (dense, multi-layered SAMs, 100-150+ AESA radar equipped tactical fighters + 180 twin-engine NGFAs and UCAVs), you have an airpower element that deters with both defensive neutralization and offensive retaliation, combined.

 

[hyperman]

And F-35 costs 89M, Gripen is just overpriced. You're forgetting economy of scale, J-35 will have at least 3-400 orders from PLAN alone, and who knows how many if PLAAF also purchase it.

Does the F-35 cost only $89M? Ive seen price estimates where its super cheap, and then price estimates where its the most expensive platform.

See here:

Top 10 most expensive fighter jets in 2024

Explore the top 10 list featuring high-tech aircraft with the highest price tags in today's aviation market. Discover the most expensive fighter jets of 2024.

www.aerotime.aero

15 Most Expensive Fighter Jets in the World

In this article, we look at some of the most expensive fighter jets in the world. You can skip our detailed analysis on trends in the aerospace industry and head over directly to the 5 Most Expensive Fighter Jets in the World. Fighter jets play a significant role for militaries in securing...

finance.yahoo.com

Top 5: The World's Most Expensive Fighter Jets

Some of the most capable, and costly, aircraft ever built.

simpleflying.com

At this point, I'm not sure what the actual costs are. Ive see the $89M figure, but I've also seen figures well above $100M.

Ok lets accept the Gripen is overpriced, what about Rafale and Eurofighter costs, they are also quite expensive compared to the $70M quote for the J-35. Something isn't adding up. And how much of the price is scale? J-35 being produced with up to 400 units, where is the source on this?

The air wing of Chinese aircraft carriers have ranged from 20-30 fighters, lets assume 30, lets assume the new ones hold 50. Where is the evidence that China is planning 8 different aircraft carriers? for it to add up to 400 units.

And as of now China has no plans to induct the J-35 into its air force, they are going all in on J-20 production. Really no evidence that the plane would be produced in the scale the F-35 is for there to be the types of price drops.

 

[FuturePAF]

I think the PAF is bifurcating very sharply between its 'tactical' (area denial, point defence) and 'strategic' (OCA, deep strike, projection) roles.

On one end, the investment in long-range SAMs could help reinforce the area denial and point defence needs, especially from an early response standpoint. Availability of JF-17C and J-10CE offers the PAF solid multirole fighters for the air-to-air needs. The need for F-7-like numbers isn't there.

OTOH, a big investment in bigger fighters like J-31 and, possibly, KAAN can create two effects. First, you get a credible long-range, offensive capability that is beyond anything the PAF has now. Second, I'd argue the presence of such fighters (and the potential offensive retaliation) helps build a conventional deterrence case. A proper UCAV element showing pervasive deep strike capabilities (with ability to soak attrition) reinforces this.

So, combined (dense, multi-layered SAMs, 100-150+ AESA radar equipped tactical fighters + 180 twin-engine NGFAs and UCAVs), you have an airpower element that deters with both defensive neutralization and offensive retaliation, combined.

Very much agreed. Numbers won’t be what they were (but that can change if the IAF increases its numbers dramatically and the Pakistani economy improves for long enough).

With recent news of Saudi joining the BRICS, they could become operators of the J-31 as well, to hedge against being sidelined the way Biden has done with his rhetoric.

The PAF, being an early adopters of the J-31, could benefit it in restoring preferential relations with the Saudis and other gulf nations, where we see Indians trying to make inroads, and the US refusing to sell the F-35.

(Edited per Waz request to stick to the topic)

 

[Waz]

Can we please take the 'Kaan' discussion to another thread (copy and paste posyts), please make one. I shall delete the last 6 posts. I have posted numerously about how we should stay on topic and the thread ban list is now quite long. I do not want to add more.

 

[FuturePAF]

Does the F-35 cost only $89M? Ive seen price estimates where its super cheap, and then price estimates where its the most expensive platform.

See here:

Top 10 most expensive fighter jets in 2024

Explore the top 10 list featuring high-tech aircraft with the highest price tags in today's aviation market. Discover the most expensive fighter jets of 2024.

www.aerotime.aero

15 Most Expensive Fighter Jets in the World

In this article, we look at some of the most expensive fighter jets in the world. You can skip our detailed analysis on trends in the aerospace industry and head over directly to the 5 Most Expensive Fighter Jets in the World. Fighter jets play a significant role for militaries in securing...

finance.yahoo.com

Top 5: The World's Most Expensive Fighter Jets

Some of the most capable, and costly, aircraft ever built.

simpleflying.com

At this point, I'm not sure what the actual costs are. Ive see the $89M figure, but I've also seen figures well above $100M.

Ok lets accept the Gripen is overpriced, what about Rafale and Eurofighter costs, they are also quite expensive compared to the $70M quote for the J-35. Something isn't adding up. And how much of the price is scale? J-35 being produced with up to 400 units, where is the source on this?

The air wing of Chinese aircraft carriers have ranged from 20-30 fighters, lets assume 30, lets assume the new ones hold 50. Where is the evidence that China is planning 8 different aircraft carriers? for it to add up to 400 units.

And as of now China has no plans to induct the J-35 into its air force, they are going all in on J-20 production. Really no evidence that the plane would be produced in the scale the F-35 is for there to be the types of price drops.

The PLANAF also operates land based fighters it will need to replace. Naval fighter don’t last as long as land based fighters, operating near/over salt water. China may build up to 400 J-35s but limits on availability, need to extensive carrier training, and accidents, may mean the PLANAF may only operate about 200 J-35s in frontline service at any given time. If the Fujian operates 30 J-35s (along side 18-24 J-15s) and the ski-jump carriers operate 12 J-35s and 12 J-15s, the Chinese could have all 200 J-35s deployed across the two ski-jump carriers and 3 full scale carriers with about 86 J-35s based out of land based PLANAF air bases (replacing any remaining J-8s and J-10s).

If the PLANAF is at least sen operating a large enough fleet of the J-35 to keep costs low, it will add to the export prospects of the J-31.

 

[enroger]

Does the F-35 cost only $89M? Ive seen price estimates where its super cheap, and then price estimates where its the most expensive platform.

See here:

Top 10 most expensive fighter jets in 2024

Explore the top 10 list featuring high-tech aircraft with the highest price tags in today's aviation market. Discover the most expensive fighter jets of 2024.

www.aerotime.aero

15 Most Expensive Fighter Jets in the World

In this article, we look at some of the most expensive fighter jets in the world. You can skip our detailed analysis on trends in the aerospace industry and head over directly to the 5 Most Expensive Fighter Jets in the World. Fighter jets play a significant role for militaries in securing...

finance.yahoo.com

Top 5: The World's Most Expensive Fighter Jets

Some of the most capable, and costly, aircraft ever built.

simpleflying.com

At this point, I'm not sure what the actual costs are. Ive see the $89M figure, but I've also seen figures well above $100M.

Ok lets accept the Gripen is overpriced, what about Rafale and Eurofighter costs, they are also quite expensive compared to the $70M quote for the J-35. Something isn't adding up. And how much of the price is scale? J-35 being produced with up to 400 units, where is the source on this?

The air wing of Chinese aircraft carriers have ranged from 20-30 fighters, lets assume 30, lets assume the new ones hold 50. Where is the evidence that China is planning 8 different aircraft carriers? for it to add up to 400 units.

And as of now China has no plans to induct the J-35 into its air force, they are going all in on J-20 production. Really no evidence that the plane would be produced in the scale the F-35 is for there to be the types of price drops.

The early blocks F-35 does costs well over 100M, the price has been steadily dropping over the years to 89M now. This is exactly economy of scale at work, it is also why European fighters like Typhoon or Rafale costs more in comparison, their production run is too small. This is just economy 101.

Type-003 has a nominal fighter wing of about 45, Type-004 is estimated to be about 60-70. China didn't start this huge aircraft carrier program just to build two or three hulls. The most conservative estimate would be 6 supercarriers, plus you need planes for training and rotation. 3-400 is reasonable if not low balling a bit

 

[hyperman]

The early blocks F-35 does costs well over 100M, the price has been steadily dropping over the years to 89M now. This is exactly economy of scale at work, it is also why European fighters like Typhoon or Rafale costs more in comparison, their production run is too small. This is just economy 101.

Type-003 has a nominal fighter wing of about 45, Type-004 is estimated to be about 60-70. China didn't start this huge aircraft carrier program just to build two or three hulls. The most conservative estimate would be 6 supercarriers, plus you need planes for training and rotation. 3-400 is reasonable if not low balling a bit

Well I guess we will see won't we, I don't think it will cost $70M and if it does, it will not have the features of jets at $120M. Thats all I'm saying. It can't cost half as much as the J-20 and do the exact same things as the J-20.

 

[FuturePAF]

The early blocks F-35 does costs well over 100M, the price has been steadily dropping over the years to 89M now. This is exactly economy of scale at work, it is also why European fighters like Typhoon or Rafale costs more in comparison, their production run is too small. This is just economy 101.

Type-003 has a nominal fighter wing of about 45, Type-004 is estimated to be about 60-70. China didn't start this huge aircraft carrier program just to build two or three hulls. The most conservative estimate would be 6 supercarriers, plus you need planes for training and rotation. 3-400 is reasonable if not low balling a bit

F-35A is down to $89M, the B and C models are still expensive, for the same reasons, limited production runs.

As for J-35 numbers in relation to carrier numbers. The Type 004, most likely a CVN, will probably only be built once the data from the Type 003 is satisfactory. The Type 004, probably launched around 2030, will also be an experimental ship, as the first Chinese CVN, and will take a few years to work the teething issues. By 2035 though, the PLAN could start seeing an improved Type 004 in full swing. Considering the economy, the PLAN having 6 full scale operational carriers will take till 2049.

So J-35 numbers will probably get to 300-400 over the production run, but it all comes down to what that time frame looks like.

J-31 export orders will keep the production lines going, but if we don’t see substantial order by the late 2030s, the potential customer base will probably transition to seeking 6th Gen jets.