PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[S10]

Will the J-31 get side bays to house PL-10s?
If not currently designed into the air frame, it doesn’t seem to make sense to not have side bays for one PL-10 on each side. Having to carry the PL-10 externally will mean a larger RCS then potentially necessary.

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I doubt it.

China will likely only induct the J-35 variant for its navy. The strike role will be filled with an advanced J-15 version with TVC engines. I suspect SAC will migrate the J-11D upgrades to future J-15s.

 

[FuturePAF]

I doubt it.

China will likely only induct the J-35 variant for its navy. The strike role will be filled with an advanced J-15 version with TVC engines. I suspect SAC will migrate the J-11D upgrades to future J-15s.

The J-31 need not be the same as the PLANAF J-35 variant. In fact, for most nations considering the J-31, this plane would be the edge of the spear and primarily an Air Superiority Fighter. Focusing on that mission for the J-31 would probably make it more likely to win export orders.

 

[hyperman]

That's the thing. You're counting these future features that may or may not come to fruition, when China already has mature systems available.

EOTS/IRST marketed in 2014:
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HMD:
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DIRCM will likely not be installed on J-20 and J-31 due to protrusion negatively affecting stealth.

Those systems are already developed for the KAAN, its just integration testing that hasn't happened it. With regards to thr systems, obviously its known that China has IRST on other platforms, we just havent seen them employed on the j-31 prototypes. As for the HMD, we know China has been developing it, what we don't know is if it will be integrated with the J-31. This is why I mentioned price point. anyways I guess we will see how it turns out. BTW the DIRCM can most certainly be integrated without affecting stealth significantly.

 

[enroger]

Will the J-31 get side bays to house PL-10s?
If not currently designed into the air frame, it doesn’t seem to make sense to not have side bays for one PL-10 on each side. Having to carry the PL-10 externally will mean a larger RCS than potentially necessary.

The PAF really needs to get the most out of this jet’s design.

Addition of:

A couple of towed decoys
probably an IRST Iike on the KAAN
an APU
long endurance OBOGS
Ground collision avoidance system
2D TVC to lower IR and rear RCS
Advanced INS for A2G munitions
baked in stealth for maintenance sake
maximize sortie rates
ceramic brakes
super-cruise
Auto-GLOC recovery
air traffic collision avoidance system
advanced software defined radios
Higher bandwidth satcoms/datalinks
Gatling gun on the wing
predictive maintenance software
GMTI function for the radar


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Source for last two pictures is the YouTube channel “Chinese Forces”.

If you look at the space between main gear housing and intake lip there is really not enough space for side bay. Theoretically it is not impossible to change the landing gear design (ie F-35) to make room, I think they just deemed it not necessary. Lock on after launch will be the way forward for WVR missiles for such planes.

I also don't think 2D-TVC will be there even though mock ups did show up in air shows and such. PLA simply don't think TVC is worth the hassle and I tend to agree, stealthified nozzle will be it.

Supercruise with WS-19 for sure.

well technically no one knows even for export models, the seller don't exactly advertise pricing. The cost were estimated based on statements and defense industry people estimating.

So you use numbers from god knows where and tries to imply J-35 is too cheap?

J-20 is of course more expensive due to it being a larger and more complex plane, but twice the cost of J-35 is just ridiculous I don't even know where you dig that number up and frankly I'm not interested to know.

The more reasonable estimates I've seen is J-35 about 70-80% the cost of J-20, the number is unsubstantiated but at least it is an educated guess.

 

[Harbyharb]

And as of now China has no plans to induct the J-35 into its air force, they are going all in on J-20 production. Really no evidence that the plane would be produced in the scale the F-35 is for there to be the types of price drops.

I'm inclined to disagree.

Keep in mind that PLAAF still have ~3-400 J-7 and J-8 variants still in active service, as well as ~220 early J-10A variants that desperately needs replacement. By 2035-2040 there will be around 900 light tactical jets that would need replacement. As slow as the USAF and USN aviation development is, the PLAAF obviously would not expect much from non-stealth platforms by 2030s.

You simply cannot expect J-20 and J-16 to be able to replace all light tactical jets, since they are already expected to replace JH-7s, all J-11 variant maybe except BG variant, and Su-30MKK. As focused as PLAAF is on heavy, long-endurance platforms, they still absolutely need numbers to protect their coastlines dotted with important population and economic centres.

If rumours regarding the planning for their 14th 5-year-plan is to be taken seriously, the total J-35 production figure of all variants could reach four digits, to equip 9+ carriers planned till middle of the century, land-based variant, and act as their premiere export option for decades to come.

If you look at the space between main gear housing and intake lip there is really not enough space for side bay. Theoretically it is not impossible to change the landing gear design (ie F-35) to make room, I think they just deemed it not necessary. Lock on after launch will be the way forward for WVR missiles for such planes.

I also don't think 2D-TVC will be there even though mock ups did show up in air shows and such. PLA simply don't think TVC is worth the hassle and I tend to agree, stealthified nozzle will be it.

Supercruise with WS-19 for sure.

Yeah. There will likely not be a side bay, but not just because of not enough space. Advanced BVRAAMs such as AIM-120D and PL-15 have already stated to have HOBS capability via LOAL and slaved to EODAS. Dedicated IR missiles may see a decline in manned platforms and instead be a mainstay for loyal wingman drones. (Which reminds me, someone mentioned DIRCM on 5th gen stealth jets like the Felon. Hilarious by the way.)

One significant benefit of 2D-TVC aside from maneuverability (especially post stall) is actually range and efficiency increase. By being able to vector thrust without changing AoA, this allows jets to achieve nominal flight profile to minimize drag/frontal RCS without deviating from intended trajectory. I personally think that PLAAF will eventually adopt TVC, just not with a square nozzle which would would usually associate with 2D-TVC as on the Raptor.

 

[MS Sandhu]

There are a number of countries in the middle east that operate top end US fighters, but because of geopolitics, they are unlikely to get access to the F35. The Abraham accords and normalising relations with Israel was meant to facilitate that, but given current conditions, that seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Gulf states, Saudi, Egypt, and Jordan will have no choice but to opt for either TFX KAAAN and/or the J35. That's a significant potential market. There were reports that UAE asked the Russians to develop a fifth gen fighter, but nothing seems to have come from that, and the SU-75 Checkmate seems uncertain at the moment, and questionable fifth gen credentials. The Europeans seem to be skipping fifth gen altogether and focusing on sixth gen. So that only really leaves KAAN and J35 as options. The Middle East could end up driving significant production numbers for both fighters, not to mention a major geopolitical realignment!

US can very well develop a Sixth Generation Fighter till 2035.
From there after, they may sell F35 to these countries.
J35 & J-31 are still in development cycle.These planes need massive testing before they can be exported to these countries.Until then,US will be pitching F-35 for export markete and will possibly become the F-16 of next decade.

 

[FuturePAF]

If you look at the space between main gear housing and intake lip there is really not enough space for side bay. Theoretically it is not impossible to change the landing gear design (ie F-35) to make room, I think they just deemed it not necessary. Lock on after launch will be the way forward for WVR missiles for such planes.

I also don't think 2D-TVC will be there even though mock ups did show up in air shows and such. PLA simply don't think TVC is worth the hassle and I tend to agree, stealthified nozzle will be it.

Supercruise with WS-19 for sure.

I agree on the TVC, but hold out hope for the side bay. The weight penalty for the heavy TVC equipment, lowering the TWR, it just might make it not feasible alone.

Considering the J-31 design could still be modified at this point, making just enough room to house one WVR weapons bay should be worth the hassle. Similar to how the original JF-17 design was modified to make way for the DSI intake, it will add some time to the design, but the final product will be so much better.

Here’s to hoping the PAF gets the best it can out of the design.

 

[enroger]

One significant benefit of 2D-TVC aside from maneuverability (especially post stall) is actually range and efficiency increase. By being able to vector thrust without changing AoA, this allows jets to achieve nominal flight profile to minimize drag/frontal RCS without deviating from intended trajectory. I personally think that PLAAF will eventually adopt TVC, just not with a square nozzle which would would usually associate with 2D-TVC as on the Raptor.

My impression come from PLAAF's seemingly lack of enthusiasm for TVC. I mean PLAAF has been playing with Su-35 for many years now, if they liked the TVC on it I'd imagine TVC showing up everywhere. J-10B TVC testbed has flown like 5 years ago, yet no subsequent plan to incorporate the tech on any of the WS-10 models in production. Leaked WS-15 test flight photos seems to indicate no TVC (though this could be chalked up to reduce risk on testing a new engine)

The biggest gripe about TVC is that it tends to be maintenance heavy, weighting between pros and cons it may not be that attractive, especially for air force with high demand on readiness. This is just my impression anyway, I would be very happy to be proven wrong on this, lets see.

I agree on the TVC, but hold out hope for the side bay. The weight penalty for the heavy TVC equipment, lowering the TWR, it just might make it not feasible alone.

Considering the J-31 design could still be modified at this point, making just enough room to house one WVR weapons bay should be worth the hassle. Similar to how the original JF-17 design was modified to make way for the DSI intake, it will add some time to the design, but the final product will be so much better.

Here’s to hoping the PAF gets the best it can out of the design.

Yeah it probably depends on what timeline is Paf's purchase gonna be, a lot may change to adapt to export market. Naval J-35's design is pretty much fixed I'd say, it'll probably enter serial production earliest next year.

 

[hyperman]

and more complex plane

Lets use your logic? how is it more complex? it has the same sensors right?

 

[enroger]

Lets use your logic? how is it more complex? it has the same sensors right?

Just the airframe requires more man-hours to manufacture, larger AESA radar is more expensive than smaller AESA radar, larger engine is more expensive than smaller engine...etc. Is it controversial about any of this? I don't understand what are you trying to ask

 

[FuturePAF]

My impression come from PLAAF's seemingly lack of enthusiasm for TVC. I mean PLAAF has been playing with Su-35 for many years now, if they liked the TVC on it I'd imagine TVC showing up everywhere. J-10B TVC testbed has flown like 5 years ago, yet no subsequent plan to incorporate the tech on any of the WS-10 models in production. Leaked WS-15 test flight photos seems to indicate no TVC (though this could be chalked up to reduce risk on testing a new engine)

The biggest gripe about TVC is that it tends to be maintenance heavy, weighting between pros and cons it may not be that attractive, especially for air force with high demand on readiness. This is just my impression anyway, I would be very happy to be proven wrong on this, lets see.



Yeah it probably depends on what timeline is Paf's purchase gonna be, a lot may change to adapt to export market. Naval J-35's design is pretty much fixed I'd say, it'll probably enter serial production earliest next year.

The naval J-35 could probably enter service as one variant, then as the J-31 is developed for the Air Superiority export role, should the side bay modifications impress the PLANAF, it’s not unlikely a cross over into the next variant of the J-35 could occur. For the PAF, they really shouldn’t hold back, and try to get the J-31 to be all that they need, because the Indians are gonna throw everything at these birds. A jet with impressive performance metrics and all aspect Stealth (RCS, IR, comms, etc.) could be a significant deterrent in its own right, just like the way the F-22 has been for the USAF.

More R&D into the TVC should be done to reduce maintenance, (and add a gun) it could be the difference in keeping the RCS low enough to be competitive in a fight.

 

[Abid123]

How many are they planning to induct? In my opinion, if they are looking for minimum deterrence, 3 squadrons (54 fighter jets) would be enough. If the PAF's main aim is to establish robust/strong deterrence, they should be looking at 6 squadrons (108 fighter jets).

 

[Oscar]

How many are they planning to induct? In my opinion, if they are looking for minimum deterrence, 3 squadrons (54 fighter jets) would be enough. If the PAF's main aim is to establish robust/strong deterrence, they should be looking at 6 squadrons (108 fighter jets).

They probably will not be able to afford more than 2sq(and of smaller strength) of these in lieu of all the other purchases they are thinking of.

 

[Quwa]

They probably will not be able to afford more than 2sq(and of smaller strength) of these in lieu of all the other purchases they are thinking of.

I'd say the cumulative roadmap wants 80-90 units, but it'll take a while (a very long while) to get there. Being a new platform, the J-31 at least gives the PAF a 20-25+ year timeline to get there.

 

[FuturePAF]

How many are they planning to induct? In my opinion, if they are looking for minimum deterrence, 3 squadrons (54 fighter jets) would be enough. If the PAF's main aim is to establish robust/strong deterrence, they should be looking at 6 squadrons (108 fighter jets).

Probably looking at 2 squadrons, and a few for the CCS, similar to how the F-16s were used in the 80s and 90s, for the initial batch. We really need to focus on our economy, and once that is in order and tax revenue is coming in, and the J-35 design sees some frontline service, that experience can be used to refine the J-31 design and fund its procurement directly, not via a loan.