PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Yasser76]

I do think that Ka'an WILL BE part of the PAF - it all comes down to when. You only have to look at how many Turkish systems that Pakistan has inducted to understand, they are keen. The issue is of ITAR and the engine. Pakistan does not want a T129 issue again, and Turkey understands that too.

J-31 will "only" be inducted once PLAN or PLAAF commit to it. PAF is too small to support the J31 programme on its own.

Agree, from a technical and strategic perspective Turkey is vital for Pakistan. It is basically our most reliable western source now US is out of the equation. Much of PAF will eb relying on Turkish systems and training wise and commonality wise we will want to maintain this relationship, otherwise danger of PAF becoming the South Western arm of the PLAAF. I think (engine depending) we will get at least a wing (2-3 Sqds) of KAAN.

 

[suryaya]

Why are western systems so crucial? Is that just a synonym for "better products" or does Pakistan have a genuine need for interoperability or something?

 

[Ali_Baba]

Why are western systems so crucial? Is that just a synonym for "better products" or does Pakistan have a genuine need for interoperability or something?

Military diversity is important. If there is a flaw in the JF17C or J10CE, then entire platforms can be comprimised. By having diversity from different suppliers, you reduce the impact of that type of issue.

 

[Qureshi]

J-31 will "only" be inducted once PLAN or PLAAF commit to it. PAF is too small to support the J31 programme on its own.

Well J31 is the Air force & J35 is the Naval version of FC31 program with very limited info available on former & later one is well know but both under development & will be inducted in PLAAF & PLANAF.

J-31 (Air force prototype?)



Well know J35


Another prototype (Airforce version?)



Few highlighted difference in both variants

 

[Pioneer]

DISCLAIMER: I am biased towards the Kaan. With that out of the way.

Two points come to mind:
1. PAF is obviously hedging their bets. They want to keep their options open.
2. Kaan is not going to be ready for the PAF before the late 2030s/early 2040s (I'm assuming including the engines), so if PAF wants a FGFA before that, they'll need to get the J31.

The Turks have a habit of constantly compressing timelines (by years sometimes) so late 2030s may become early 2030s. In which case, PAF might drop the J31 altogether if they find the Kaan to be of sufficient maturity.

It is my opinion that if both the J31 and Kaan were available at the same time, the PAF would go for the Kaan in a heartbeat since it meets the Azm-like ASR more closely than the J31, and has "western-adjacent" technology. Roughly speaking, Kaan is Turkey's J20 so they are putting everything into it. If their plans come to fruition (high likelihood because of all of the access that the Turks have), the Kaan is going to be a beast.

Keep in mind buying the Kaan means buying its range of Goktug missiles too, which are Turkish AIM9X, AIM120D, and a to-be-seen very-long-range missile.
View attachment 9348
I feel like the PAF would like to have a "western" set of missiles after the F-16 based AIM120s expire.

Why is KAAN closer to "western-adjacent technology" than J-31? What is the basis for it?

 

[Waz]

Users this is the second time I'm telling you to stop this turning into a 'Kaan' discussion.....Some posts are relevant but many are talking about the Turkish defense industry.

 

[maverick]

IMO...despite what the PAF says about it, the Kaan isn't a factor. At this time, the J-31 is the PAF's only real NGFA route and, possibly, the only fighter they'll procure from the 2030s. If they can't afford J-31s, the PAF will resort to additional J-10CEs.

J31 will be here by the end of 2027.

 

[peagle]

This might be an unpopular opinion, but I don't think the J-31 is on the cards in the near term as stated in the presser.
This is a publicity/PR stunt. There is no way PAF is inducting a jet not already in service with the PLAAF/PLAN for sometime and in decent numbers.

While i think you are correct, for the reasons I've already stated in my earlier post, I think this is more then just a PR stunt, there's not much of a history with PAF making silly statements. Sometimes what they say does not come to fruition, but that's due to other factors, not lack of intent.

I am certain Pakistani Air Force has started a program for the induction of a 5th generation fighter aircraft, it's an entirely new platform with an entirely new technology base, thus will require a drastic change not just in support infrastructure, but also PAF's maintenance, operational, and strategic mechanisms. That takes time.

The PAF is following the correct approach so they are able to utilise the new capability to it's full effectiveness, it doesn't happen overnight, it takes time. There's also the matter of actually evaluating the technologies on offer, so there are lots of angles which need to be covered. But the journey has started.

 

[FuturePAF]

DISCLAIMER: I am biased towards the Kaan. With that out of the way.

Two points come to mind:
1. PAF is obviously hedging their bets. They want to keep their options open.
2. Kaan is not going to be ready for the PAF before the late 2030s/early 2040s (I'm assuming including the engines), so if PAF wants a FGFA before that, they'll need to get the J31.

The Turks have a habit of constantly compressing timelines (by years sometimes) so late 2030s may become early 2030s. In which case, PAF might drop the J31 altogether if they find the Kaan to be of sufficient maturity.

It is my opinion that if both the J31 and Kaan were available at the same time, the PAF would go for the Kaan in a heartbeat since it meets the Azm-like ASR more closely than the J31, and has "western-adjacent" technology. Roughly speaking, Kaan is Turkey's J20 so they are putting everything into it. If their plans come to fruition (high likelihood because of all of the access that the Turks have), the Kaan is going to be a beast.

Keep in mind buying the Kaan means buying its range of Goktug missiles too, which are Turkish AIM9X, AIM120D, and a to-be-seen very-long-range missile.
View attachment 9348
I feel like the PAF would like to have a "western" set of missiles after the F-16 based AIM120s expire.

If both planes were ready at the same time, I too would say the PAF should go for the KAAN. Considering the PAF’s parallel need for a new engine for the JF-17, focusing on the J-31 for the time being, as at least a place holder for a 5th Gen jet makes sense. Infrastructure build for it could be used by another jet.

The J-31 is a relatively mature design with many revisions, but in my opinion, it needs side bays for instance, to carry PL-10 missiles.

IMHO, This decision should be pushed to the early 2030s, to give both jets time to mature, and the rest of the 2020s spent on (fixing the economy) buying sufficient J-10s to retire the mirage fleet; at least about 90 in total.

 

[FuturePAF]

J31 will be here by the end of 2027.

But will it meet all of the PAF needs for an air superiority platform?

 

[Harbyharb]

If both planes were ready at the same time, I too would say the PAF should go for the KAAN. Considering the PAF’s parallel need for a new engine for the JF-17, focusing on the J-31 for the time being, as at least a place holder for a 5th Gen jet makes sense. Infrastructure build for it could be used by another jet.

I don't think TAI Kaan would be ready, as in, achieve the full capability of a 5th gen, or 5.5 gen jet, anytime soon.

From several details it's clear that Turkey have yet to have a mature understanding and technical expertise for full Very Low Observable designs. The radome edge is jagged, yes, but it is simple isometric uniformly jagged regardless of the geometry change, unlike other stealth examples that focuses on jagged lines that deflects radio return to very specific angles. The rear fuselage transition to thrust nozzle is jagged, but the nozzle itself is not (yes, it is just purchased F110 strictly for constructing the demonstrators.) The IRST setup and the lack of EODAS makes the awareness level of the Kaan still remains in 4th gen category. Not a single airfoil have clipped tips, the transition between control surfaces seems a bit rough, a distinct lack of conforming antennas for communication, navigation, and utility can be spotted from the fuselage. This is no surprising, Turkey, to my knowledge, does not possess Radio Anechoic Chambers or Supersonic Wind Tunnels, which no doubt limits their ability to design high performance, stealthy platforms.

The airframe itself is very conservative. Serrated Caret Intake, ~37 degrees wing sweep angle, still favors high subsonic-transonic, relatively bare bones - I personally think it's more apt to describe the TAI Kaan still in the demonstrator phase rather than prototype phase, aka where the FC-31 first prototype was.

The J-31 is a relatively mature design with many revisions, but in my opinion, it needs side bays for instance, to carry PL-10 missiles.

Let's objectively view what exactly does PL-10 brings to the table. It offers WVR ability, ability to engage target will remaining radio silent, HOBS post merge, and engage very small RCS targets like drones or some missiles.

As missile and information technology develop, the boundaries between WVR and BVRAAMs have actually been blurred. The EODAS system offers 360 degrees awareness, and is able to provide firing solutions to both WVRs and BVRAAMs. Directional datalink allows for interim guidance after LOAL, and the potent AESA seeker of the missile itself is enough to acquire the target in WVR ranges. Yes, BVRAAMs may not sport as much agility in post merge scenarios, but merging with a bandit as a VLO fighter in of itself is a very rare occurrence.

In short, as a medium VLO platform like KF-21/F-35/J-31/35 is considered, having just a main ventral bay means less digging holes in your fuselage, meaning weight saved in structural strength, and higher internal volume for fuel - both are very important that, some sacrifices are very much warranted.

 

[Oscar]

Users this is the second time I'm telling you to stop this turning into a 'Kaan' discussion.....Some posts are relevant but many are talking about the Turkish defense industry.

THIS ^^^

I believe this announcement has caught everyone by surprise - probably not whether it was going to happen but the announcement itself. So the context to the Kaan discussions is more so on how this announcement is going to impact it - users just need to not do a SPAM dump of everything the Turkish industry does and focus more on the impact to the PAF's plans vis a vis this announcement and where perhaps each fighter could fit.

We don't want the old PDF problem of some members copy pasting an entire dump of Turkish products that have no relevance to this discussion which is PRIMARILY on the J-31 procurement announcement.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

Shenyang FC-31 project evolved into two versions of stealth fighter jets. The Chinese designated J-31 as the land version and J-35 as the Naval Carrier Version.

Both these jets will incorporate the latest 5th Gen technologies. Pakistan Air Force will get the J-31 GrayFalcon.

 

[FuturePAF]

I have a conspiracy theory: the PAF is going for J-31 to support the KAAN program! Thanks to the outright support to Gaza, according to the Turkish media, a series of stringent sanctions from the DC is on the way. In that case, the TAI/TEI/ASELSAN/ROKETSAN etc. require the Pak connections for the Chinese alternatives, especially in the fields of advanced military grade ICs, precision machinery and materials know-how to produce classified aero parts, critical test and charactetization equipment etc. Nothing like the hands-on experience....

So your saying, even Turkey would acknowledge its best for the PAF to procure the J-31, at least in limited numbers, to build up operational knowledge that it can share?

 

[MS Sandhu]

THIS ^^^

I believe this announcement has caught everyone by surprise - probably not whether it was going to happen but the announcement itself. So the context to the Kaan discussions is more so on how this announcement is going to impact it - users just need to not do a SPAM dump of everything the Turkish industry does and focus more on the impact to the PAF's plans vis a vis this announcement and where perhaps each fighter could fit.

We don't want the old PDF problem of some members copy pasting an entire dump of Turkish products that have no relevance to this discussion which is PRIMARILY on the J-31 procurement announcement.

Do you think PAF is somewhat in hurry to go Stealth?
I was reading an article by RUSI on the SEAD/DEAD capabilities of European Air Forces.To my surprise,Author concluded that European Air Forces are seriously handicaped in SEAD/DEAD against Russia despite their advanced Fighter Jets.
If US gets itself busy at some other front in case of Europo-Russian war,EuAFs will not be able to penetrate Russian SAMs.
These are European Air Forces.Let alone Pakistani Air Force.