PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Oscar]

I'd say the cumulative roadmap wants 80-90 units, but it'll take a while (a very long while) to get there. Being a new platform, the J-31 at least gives the PAF a 20-25+ year timeline to get there.

With the Kaan and any NGFA?
Ill be surprised if this isn’t curtailed or the other programs get culled instead. Maybe by 2050

 

[Quwa]

With the Kaan and any NGFA?
Ill be surprised if this isn’t curtailed or the other programs get culled instead. Maybe by 2050

IMO...despite what the PAF says about it, the Kaan isn't a factor. At this time, the J-31 is the PAF's only real NGFA route and, possibly, the only fighter they'll procure from the 2030s. If they can't afford J-31s, the PAF will resort to additional J-10CEs.

 

[Oscar]

IMO...despite what the PAF says about it, the Kaan isn't a factor. At this time, the J-31 is the PAF's only real NGFA route and, possibly, the only fighter they'll procure from the 2030s. If they can't afford J-31s, the PAF will resort to additional J-10CEs.

I didn’t want to say it but that is the likeliest scenario and the rest is just someone’s Tamgha e Basalat.. but @JamD , you and I have discussed this before

 

[JamD]

The Turks didn't take this j31 announcement very nicely. Let's see what the PAF sells them.

 

[Oscar]

The Turks didn't take this j31 announcement very nicely. Let's see what the PAF sells them.

Kaan pakar ke maafi maang lein warna ye na ho ke dono Kaano ke beech mein sar kardiya jaye.

 

[FuturePAF]

Kaan pakar ke maafi maang lein warna ye na ho ke dono Kaano ke beech mein sar kardiya jaye.

The KAAN project is being held by the lack of a domestic engine in hand today, much the same way the plans for the T-129 were doomed by the need for a foreign engine.

Pakistan could offset the loss of participation in the KAAN project, in exchange for other projects such as the Havasoj, Anka-3, Kizilelma, and a number of other ground based and maritime systems.

It’s probably for the best the PAF realistically focuses on one 5th Gen platform. The PAF can focus on making the J-31 what it needs, and try to make a deal with China to license produce the WS-19 engine domestically, for the J-31 and the JF-17, easily the bulk of the future fleet.

 

[JamD]

The KAAN project is being held by the lack of a domestic engine in hand today, much the same way the plans for the T-129 were doomed by the need for a foreign engine.

Pakistan could offset the loss of participation in the KAAN project, in exchange for other projects such as the Havasoj, Anka, Kizilelma, and a number of other ground based and maritime systems.

It’s probably for the best the PAF focuses on one 5th Gen platform. The PAF can focus on making the J-31 what it needs, and try to make a deal with China to license produce the WS-19 engine domestically.

DISCLAIMER: I am biased towards the Kaan. With that out of the way.

Two points come to mind:
1. PAF is obviously hedging their bets. They want to keep their options open.
2. Kaan is not going to be ready for the PAF before the late 2030s/early 2040s (I'm assuming including the engines), so if PAF wants a FGFA before that, they'll need to get the J31.

The Turks have a habit of constantly compressing timelines (by years sometimes) so late 2030s may become early 2030s. In which case, PAF might drop the J31 altogether if they find the Kaan to be of sufficient maturity.

It is my opinion that if both the J31 and Kaan were available at the same time, the PAF would go for the Kaan in a heartbeat since it meets the Azm-like ASR more closely than the J31, and has "western-adjacent" technology. Roughly speaking, Kaan is Turkey's J20 so they are putting everything into it. If their plans come to fruition (high likelihood because of all of the access that the Turks have), the Kaan is going to be a beast.

Keep in mind buying the Kaan means buying its range of Goktug missiles too, which are Turkish AIM9X, AIM120D, and a to-be-seen very-long-range missile.

I feel like the PAF would like to have a "western" set of missiles after the F-16 based AIM120s expire.

 

[HAIDER]

The Turks didn't take this j31 announcement very nicely. Let's see what the PAF sells them.

As we discuss before Turkish need to develop indigenous engine to sell this plane to Pakistan. Otherwise , we all know what happened to ATAK engine case, when US refused 3rd party lic to Turkey in Pakistani deal.

 

[JamD]

As we discuss before Turkish need to develop indigenous engine to sell this plane to Pakistan. Otherwise , we all know what happened to ATAK engine case, when US refused 3rd party lic to Turkey in Pakistani deal.

The Turks are VERY cognizant of that fact. That ATAK fiasco pissed them off a lot too.

 

[HAIDER]

The Turks are VERY cognizant of that fact. That ATAK fiasco pissed them off a lot too.

Well, being NATO they get tech transfer but when come to Pakistan..its they go through NATO approval process

 

[JamD]

Well, being NATO they get tech transfer but when come to Pakistan..its they go through NATO approval process

There's a very big realization in the Turkish aerospace industry that to export their products they need to localize key components. So when I say they have access to technology, I mean that they have used and incorporated it, and are actively trying to make local versions of it. Not that they can buy ITAR products. For example, look at the Goktug program. They obviously have access to sidewinder and aamram and yet they are making their own versions. Part of the reason is, how can they export Kaan without missiles? Even things like the carbon-cloth used in composite parts is sometimes ITAR restricted and they've set up local production facilities for those. Lots of examples like that.

Like I said, they are very aware of the problems caused by reexport of ITAR equipment.

 

[Quwa]

I didn’t want to say it but that is the likeliest scenario and the rest is just someone’s Tamgha e Basalat.. but @JamD , you and I have discussed this before

DISCLAIMER: I am biased towards the Kaan. With that out of the way.

Two points come to mind:
1. PAF is obviously hedging their bets. They want to keep their options open.
2. Kaan is not going to be ready for the PAF before the late 2030s/early 2040s (I'm assuming including the engines), so if PAF wants a FGFA before that, they'll need to get the J31.

The Turks have a habit of constantly compressing timelines (by years sometimes) so late 2030s may become early 2030s. In which case, PAF might drop the J31 altogether if they find the Kaan to be of sufficient maturity.

It is my opinion that if both the J31 and Kaan were available at the same time, the PAF would go for the Kaan in a heartbeat since it meets the Azm-like ASR more closely than the J31, and has "western-adjacent" technology. Roughly speaking, Kaan is Turkey's J20 so they are putting everything into it. If their plans come to fruition (high likelihood because of all of the access that the Turks have), the Kaan is going to be a beast.

Keep in mind buying the Kaan means buying its range of Goktug missiles too, which are Turkish AIM9X, AIM120D, and a to-be-seen very-long-range missile.
View attachment 9348
I feel like the PAF would like to have a "western" set of missiles after the F-16 based AIM120s expire.

I'll go out on a limb and say...if the Kaan materializes, the PAF may break its 80-unit rule and acquire a limited number (2 squadrons). However, it would be for a very specific purpose; to procure a genuine strike-optimized design. The Kaan's bigger than the J-31 (think F-15 versus F/A-18) and, in lieu of the F-35, the Turks I believe want to imbue it with strike-specific features, such as a high-powered EOTS, high sensor-based awareness, etc.

So, if the PAF's of the mindset of giving its Strategic arm (AFSC) a dedicated and distinct fighter unit (ala German F-35 nuclear squadrons), the Kaan can be the way to go. But boy, we're now talking about a heck of a luxury, but one that fits with Kaan's size and capabilities IMO.

 

[enroger]

The naval J-35 could probably enter service as one variant, then as the J-31 is developed for the Air Superiority export role, should the side bay modifications impress the PLANAF, it’s not unlikely a cross over into the next variant of the J-35 could occur. For the PAF, they really shouldn’t hold back, and try to get the J-31 to be all that they need, because the Indians are gonna throw everything at these birds. A jet with impressive performance metrics and all aspect Stealth (RCS, IR, comms, etc.) could be a significant deterrent in its own right, just like the way the F-22 has been for the USAF.

More R&D into the TVC should be done to reduce maintenance, (and add a gun) it could be the difference in keeping the RCS low enough to be competitive in a fight.

Yeah, I won't say China has given up on TVC per say, obviously they'll keep working on it until the maintenance characteristic is good enough for mainline use, it just doesn't look like it is imminent to me. And as we're moving towards 6th gen there're new techs that may supersede conventional TVC altogether such as flow controlled thrust vectoring etc.

 

[GriffinsRule]

This might be an unpopular opinion, but I don't think the J-31 is on the cards in the near term as stated in the presser.
This is a publicity/PR stunt. There is no way PAF is inducting a jet not already in service with the PLAAF/PLAN for sometime and in decent numbers.

 

[Ali_Baba]

I do think that Ka'an WILL BE part of the PAF - it all comes down to when. You only have to look at how many Turkish systems that Pakistan has inducted to understand, they are keen. Turkey will offer path of procurement and possible integration of western(non-ITART) weapons into Ka'an, that will be closed on Chinese systems. The issue is of ITAR and the engine. Pakistan does not want a T129 issue again, and Turkey understands that too.

J-31 will "only" be inducted once PLAN or PLAAF commit to it. PAF is too small to support the J31 programme on its own.