PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[enroger]

Well I guess we will see won't we, I don't think it will cost $70M and if it does, it will not have the features of jets at $120M. Thats all I'm saying. It can't cost half as much as the J-20 and do the exact same things as the J-20.

F-35 is cheaper than Rafale, do you think it is a lesser fighter than Rafale? And how do you know J-35 will cost 70M or how much J-20 costs anyway? It is afaik not revealed, definitely not J-20 since it is not for export

F-35A is down to $89M, the B and C models are still expensive, for the same reasons, limited production runs.

As for J-35 numbers in relation to carrier numbers. The Type 004, most likely a CVN, will probably only be built once the data from the Type 003 is satisfactory. The Type 004, probably launched around 2030, will also be an experimental ship, as the first Chinese CVN, and will take a few years to work the teething issues. By 2035 though, the PLAN could start seeing an improved Type 004 in full swing. Considering the economy, the PLAN having 6 full scale operational carriers will take till 2049.

So J-35 numbers will probably get to 300-400 over the production run, but it all comes down to what that time frame looks like.

J-31 export orders will keep the production lines going, but if we don’t see substantial order by the late 2030s, the potential customer base will probably transition to seeking 6th Gen jets.

IMO 004 will launch quite a bit earlier than 2030, we'll see. I agree about everything else.

 

[FuturePAF]

Well I guess we will see won't we, I don't think it will cost $70M and if it does, it will not have the features of jets at $120M. Thats all I'm saying. It can't cost half as much as the J-20 and do the exact same things as the J-20.

No one expects it be equal, but systems mature and previously expensive tech on earlier model J-20 is becoming more affordable, such as GaN radars, for use on J-31s.

Prices for arguments sake; A 2024 J-20 at $120 M would definitely be better than a $70 M J-31. The hope is desired capabilities mature and are build in such numbers that costs come down, and a 2030 J-31 could be on par with a 2024 J-20, as much as possible, within the limitations of its design.

IMO 004 will launch quite a bit earlier than 2030, we'll see. I agree about everything else.

If the Type 004 launches and becomes operational by 2030, then China could indeed field the full 6 CVNs much earlier. we Could indeed see the full 300-400 PLANAF J-35s build out by 2040. It would really give an impetus to the J-35 program and support the advancement of the J-31 export program. The only other shoe I’m waiting to see drop is a Gulf Air Force pick up the J-31. Once/If we see that, it will mean the program is full steam ahead for all the bells and whistles. The Saudis are the most likely customer, and Pakistan’s early adoption could pay off, not just for the J-31 program but the legacy PAF JF-17s and J-10s.

 

[enroger]

If the Type 004 launches and becomes operational by 2030, then China could indeed field the full 6 CVNs much earlier. we Could indeed see the full 300-400 PLANAF J-35s build out by 2040. It would really give an impetus to the J-35 program and support the advancement of the J-31 export program. The only other shoe I’m waiting to see drop is a Gulf Air Force pick up the J-31. Once/If we see that, it will mean the program is full steam ahead for all the bells and whistles. The Saudis are the most likely customer, and Pakistan’s early adoption could pay off, not just for the J-31 program but the legacy PAF JF-17s and J-10s.

Indeed it would be interesting if the Gulf states and countries such as Egypt join the program. Thought I don't expect their order to be that influential in numbers, compared to PLA's own count anyway, the geopolitical meanings of J-31/35 proliferation on the other hand is a much bigger thing.

 

[FuturePAF]

Indeed it would be interesting if the Gulf states and countries such as Egypt join the program. Thought I don't expect their order to be that influential in numbers, compared to PLA's own count anyway, the geopolitical meanings of J-31/35 proliferation on the other hand is a much bigger thing.

The signal even 36 J-31 in RSAF service would send would be of rebalancing relations. The potential for more orders, by other GCC countries would then become more likely, especially in the face of being denied F-35s and Irans purchase of the Su-35, and a potential desire by the GCC to be able to independently carry out strikes on Iran or Iran based proxies with missiles and radars capable of detecting and engaging 4th Gen aircraft.

 

[Corax]

Very much agreed. Numbers won’t be what they were (but that can change if the IAF increases its numbers dramatically and the Pakistani economy improves for long enough).

With recent news of Saudi joining the BRICS, they could become operators of the J-31 as well, to hedge against being sidelined the way Biden has done with his rhetoric.

The PAF, being an early adopters of the J-31, could benefit it in restoring preferential relations with the Saudis and other gulf nations, where we see Indians trying to make inroads, and the US refusing to sell the F-35.

(Edited per Waz request to stick to the topic)

There are a number of countries in the middle east that operate top end US fighters, but because of geopolitics, they are unlikely to get access to the F35. The Abraham accords and normalising relations with Israel was meant to facilitate that, but given current conditions, that seems unlikely for the foreseeable future. The Gulf states, Saudi, Egypt, and Jordan will have no choice but to opt for either TFX KAAAN and/or the J35. That's a significant potential market. There were reports that UAE asked the Russians to develop a fifth gen fighter, but nothing seems to have come from that, and the SU-75 Checkmate seems uncertain at the moment, and questionable fifth gen credentials. The Europeans seem to be skipping fifth gen altogether and focusing on sixth gen. So that only really leaves KAAN and J35 as options. The Middle East could end up driving significant production numbers for both fighters, not to mention a major geopolitical realignment!

 

[S10]

PLAAF/ SAC still testing j31/J35, first customer will be your PLAN not some foreign customers

You're confusing J-31 with J-35. J-35 is a naval variant under testing, while J-31's design has long been finalized. That is why PAF went for it. It's like saying J-11 wasn't ready just because J-15 was under testing.

Repeating the same thing over and over doesn't make it so.

 

[S10]

Well for one, there are 4 AESA sensors, 2 on the sides, and one on the back next to the engines for 360 coverage. Then there is both an EOTS for ground applications as well as a dedicated IRST sensor. There is also a DIRCM sensor. Thats just sensors, there is also a HMDS like the F-35, thought we haven't seen the inside of the J-31 so I can't say for sure if the Chinese have gone for a HMDS as well or a traditional HUD like the J-20 currently uses. There are several other key semi autonomous features regarding landing and takeoff but that might be there on the J-31 as well. its difficult the gauge the J-31 given both China's lack of transparency as well as not too much exposure during testing, but if the export price points are accurate of the jet(it might end up being more in which case its different), idk how they will put all those aspects in and keep it at the low price point and all the features, as it costs almost half the J-20 price apparently. around $70M vs $120M for the J-20. To put in perspective the JAS GripenE is $85M. I understand China makes things cheaper, but that cost/price, there must be somewhere they are cutting back.

So basically nothing J-31 doesn't already have.

 

[FuturePAF]

So basically nothing J-31 doesn't already have.

From what I’ve gathered, basically, everyone is waiting on the WS-19 engines, hopefully, and not just the WS-13E engines. The PAF, the PLANAF, and any other interested export customer.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

You're confusing J-31 with J-35. J-35 is a naval variant under testing, while J-31's design has long been finalized. That is why PAF went for it. It's like saying J-11 wasn't ready just because J-15 was under testing.

Repeating the same thing over and over doesn't make it so.

Can you confirm j31 existence with backup/source, I thought it was the first prototype and evolved into J35?

 

[hyperman]

F-35 is cheaper than Rafale, do you think it is a lesser fighter than Rafale? And how do you know J-35 will cost 70M or how much J-20 costs anyway? It is afaik not revealed, definitely not J-20 since it is not for export

well technically no one knows even for export models, the seller don't exactly advertise pricing. The cost were estimated based on statements and defense industry people estimating.

So basically nothing J-31 doesn't already have.

can you show us on the J-31 where exactly the DIRCM, the IRST seperate from the EOTS and the HMDS is?

 

[S10]

can you show us on the J-31 where exactly the DIRCM, the IRST seperate from the EOTS and the HMDS is?

That's the thing. You're counting these future features that may or may not come to fruition, when China already has mature systems available.

EOTS/IRST marketed in 2014:



HMD:



DIRCM will likely not be installed on J-20 and J-31 due to protrusion negatively affecting stealth.

 

[S10]

Can you confirm j31 existence with backup/source, I thought it was the first prototype and evolved into J35?

FC-31 was the original designation, since it was a pet project by SAC that was not funded by the military. J-31 was the heavily modified design that was unveiled in 2016. Receiving the J designation means design has been approved by the military. J-35 is the carrier variant being developed for 003 carrier.

Speculation Over Possible New J-35 Variant For China’s Air Force

Imagery taken in China raises the possibility of a new land-based J-35 prototype, but also provides more questions than it answers.

www.thedrive.com

This is the clearest photo yet of Chinese Navy's J-35 Fighter - Naval News

The clearest image to date of China's future carrier-borne stealth fighter known as J-35 surfaced this week on Chinese social media Weibo. The twin engine aircraft will be flown by the People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force (PLANAF) from China's future Type-003 Fujian-class aircraft carriers...

www.navalnews.com

 

[FuturePAF]

Will the J-31 get side bays to house PL-10s?
If not currently designed into the air frame, it doesn’t seem to make sense to not have side bays for one PL-10 on each side. Having to carry the PL-10 externally will mean a larger RCS than potentially necessary.

The PAF really needs to get the most out of this jet’s design.

Addition of:

A couple of towed decoys
probably an IRST Iike on the KAAN
an APU
long endurance OBOGS
Ground collision avoidance system
2D TVC to lower IR and rear RCS
Advanced INS for A2G munitions
baked in stealth for maintenance sake
maximize sortie rates
ceramic brakes
super-cruise
Auto-GLOC recovery
air traffic collision avoidance system
advanced software defined radios
Higher bandwidth satcoms/datalinks
Gatling gun on the wing
predictive maintenance software
GMTI function for the radar








Source for last two pictures is the YouTube channel “Chinese Forces”.