PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[FuturePAF]

It's interesting. If what the CAS conveyed was understood correctly, I don't think the PAF will see its first FC-31s / J-35s until sometime in the 2030s. China is still developing the fighter.

Just like the PAF waited for the J-10 to mature until it met the PAF’s requirements, Indeed the PAF really should wait till the J-31/35 meets performance requirements to be worth acquiring. In the meantime modernization of the JF-17 fleet and acquisition of more PL-15s and PL-10s will go a long way in achieving some level of technological edge over the bulk of the IAF fleet.

 

[Oscar]

If they get import orders from countries in large numbers other than Pakistan. Especially ones who have option of buying Russian planes. Leaving Pakistan, no one is really interested in buying Chinese jet engines or jets in large numbers. Pakistan operates largest number of Chinese planes and in future Chinese jet engines too.

Look at Russia jets or engines and how many countries operate them.

That is the incumbent aspect of Russians - and conveniently ignores non-Pakistani operators of legacy Chinese jets.
I understand there is the NRI bias at play and shows from your post history - but please humor us and actually provide metrics to back up or at least forecast your predictions.

 

[FuturePAF]

If they get import orders from countries in large numbers other than Pakistan. Especially ones who have option of buying Russian planes. Leaving Pakistan, no one is really interested in buying Chinese jet engines or jets in large numbers. Pakistan operates largest number of Chinese planes and in future Chinese jet engines too.

Look at Russia jets or engines and how many countries operate them.

That is a definitive way to tell, but even acquisition of a few C-919 with the CJ-1000A in the 2030s will go to material labs in the west, and by then we will have conclusive proof of the capabilities of Chinese industry. Until then it will remain speculation.

Btw, after reports come out of these western labs, sales will probably materialize if performance metrics are met and the Chinese build out the global infrastructure to support the jets.

 

[Oscar]

It's interesting. If what the CAS conveyed was understood correctly, I don't think the PAF will see its first FC-31s / J-35s until sometime in the 2030s. China is still developing the fighter.

I certainly doubt any induction takes place before that - in this case the PAF is happy to wait until the Chinese induct it and put it through its teething issues. This is the reason the J-20 was asked for(and denied by the Chinese because they fear moles in the PAF) because it has been through the crucible of sufficient flight hours and issues(and is now a maturing platform) and the PAF has no funds nor numbers requirement to push for the other Chengdu design.

 

[FuturePAF]

The next step after J35s will be J20s for PAF.

After the J-35, I doubt it will be the J-20. It will almost certainly be the KAAN fighter. The Pakistani military is buying both Turkish (and western) systems to operate alongside Chinese systems. Why do we think Pakistan won’t do the same with the leading edge of its Air Force, especially considering Pakistan has publicly committed to the KAAN Program.

The only question will be the force structure planned by the PAF. How many J-35s, how many KAAN, how many J-10 and how many F-16s and JF-17s soldiering on. It all comes back to finances and political relations.

 

[VersusChristi]

You mentioned the word "Stealth Engine" - please qualify that. What is stealth regarding a mass of spinning blades and heat?

Infra-red optimizations. Nozzel shaping/material and heat distribution techniques to reduce hot spots. Let me know when RD-93 or its Chinese "adaptation" had any such optimizations.

That is the incumbent aspect of Russians - and conveniently ignores non-Pakistani operators of legacy Chinese jets.

Do any of them past jets had Chinese engines?

I understand there is the NRI bias at play and shows from your post history - but please humor us and actually provide metrics to back up or at least forecast your predictions.

By the same token I can say you have an extreme Pro China bias. PEW polls suggests that Pakistani are among the most pro China people on the earth.

If it helps, I think that Tejas is the retarded son of IAF. I will not trust operational capability of Tejas too. That being said, I don't think its engine performance or life time will be the issue. Any issues that will come is most likely from its lousy maintainability, stupid design which reduces its range and pathetic choice of dogfight nimbleness over combat radius.

 

[AJKashmir1]

If China itself doesn't induct it in significant numbers then we shouldn't go for it

One of the most important things is regular tweaks and updates based on input from consistent testing and usage

 

[VersusChristi]

That is a definitive way to tell, but even acquisition of a few C-919 with the CJ-1000A in the 2030s will go to material labs in the west, and by then we will have conclusive proof of the capabilities of Chinese industry. Until then it will remain speculation.

Btw, after reports come out of these western labs, sales will probably materialize if performance metrics are met and the Chinese build out the global infrastructure to support the jets.

By the very nature of weapons, their quality is a matter of speculation. Unless.... well... we find out for real.

Americans had been pretty dismissive about even Russian light weapons and then the world witnessed what AK-47 can do. The very design of AK-47 is a testament to its robustness. And it shows.

Let Chinese make an AK-47 of jet engines which many in the world are ready to rely upon and then I will trust their even unproven jet engines.

 

[Quwa]

I certainly doubt any induction takes place before that - in this case the PAF is happy to wait until the Chinese induct it and put it through its teething issues. This is the reason the J-20 was asked for(and denied by the Chinese because they fear moles in the PAF) because it has been through the crucible of sufficient flight hours and issues(and is now a maturing platform) and the PAF has no funds nor numbers requirement to push for the other Chengdu design.

Exactly. Moreover, the PAF went through the whole process (and cost) of inducting the J-10CE for a reason -- it wasn't to induct yet another platform within a couple of years. IMO, aside from the JF-17, the bulk of the PAF's fighter orders through the 2020s will center on the J-10CE. The PAF doesn't induct a new fighter type unless it has a roadmap or plan to procure at least 90 units.

 

[Fatman17]

The Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar today at a ceremony at the Central Air Command AOR confirmed the Pakistan Air Force’s plans to procure the Shenyang J-31 multirole stealth fighter jet from China. The CAS said that “the foundation for acquiring the J-31 Stealth Fighter aircraft has already been laid which is all set to become part of the PAF's fleet in the near future”.
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Nearly all PAF SM sites are following this development.

I think PAF will have a different designation for this aircraft.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

WS-13 is essentially RD-93 with Chinese metallurgy. As such it is not really a stealth engine. WS-19 is still to be proven. Either way neither of them are in same class as even Russian engines.

Do sut57 have stealth engine, and think about Kaveri first than you taunt others

 

[Fatman17]

Exactly. Moreover, the PAF went through the whole process (and cost) of inducting the J-10CE for a reason -- it wasn't to induct yet another platform within a couple of years. IMO, aside from the JF-17, the bulk of the PAF's fighter orders through the 2020s will center on the J-10CE. The PAF doesn't induct a new fighter type unless it has a roadmap or plan to procure at least 90 units.

So we are assuming that there will be no further induction of the F-16 platform even though the Biden administration has approved a 450m $ sustainment program for the F-16s.

 

[Oscar]

By the very nature of weapons, their quality is a matter of speculation. Unless.... well... we find out for real.

Americans had been pretty dismissive about even Russian light weapons and then the world witnessed what AK-47 can do. The very design of AK-47 is a testament to its robustness. And it shows.

Let Chinese make an AK-47 of jet engines which many in the world are ready to rely upon and then I will trust their even unproven jet engines.

You haven't answered the question and are shooting tangents to your original claim.
First - what is a "stealth" engine? or you are ok to admit it was a pointless shot with no base.
Second, while you are yourself providing the example of AK-47 as the obscure type yet are somehow your "trust" is to be earned versus hundreds of operational Chinese aircraft?

US leads the design of jet engines - there is no comparable - then there are the Europeans and then the Russians.
Each of these have decades of lead over the Chinese and that includes being the incumbent choice for aircraft manufacturers.

On the other hand, while Tesla was the incumbent manufacturer of mass produced electric vehicles - BYD just took the lead in terms of numbers delivered in its market.
So there is precedent for whatever methodology the Chinese use for their current "faster" advancement compared to their previous generation.

Whether or not that sort of advancement translates to the engines - it eventually will and this dogma associated with Chinese "quality" especially with people of their southern neighbor might be broken in ways unexpectedly.

As someone who has worked with BOTH American chipsets and Chinese ones - the word quality to the Chinese means how much money do you want to put into it so it works exactly like the American one. Imitation may be the truest form of flattery - but it also means you get a product that is very very close in performance, if not similar to the original.

The difference is that American technology that is public IP versus what is not public IP is sometimes a decade apart - that is just the power of knowledge and institutions.

 

[Oscar]

So we are assuming that there will be no further induction of the F-16 platform even though the Biden administration has approved a 450m $ sustainment program for the F-16s.

Very much - sustainment ensures they operate in their specified role and will continue to act as the body punchers for the PAF. But the J-10CE has now taken the lead as the left or right hook to the face while the JF-17 and the IADS will absorb the expected hits.

 

[FuturePAF]

Infra-red optimizations. Nozzel shaping/material and heat distribution techniques to reduce hot spots. Let me know when RD-93 or its Chinese "adaptation" had any such optimizations.


Do any of them past jets had Chinese engines?


By the same token I can say you have an extreme Pro China bias. PEW polls suggests that Pakistani are among the most pro China people on the earth.

If it helps, I think that Tejas is the retarded son of IAF. I will not trust operational capability of Tejas too. That being said, I don't think its engine performance or life time will be the issue. Any issues that will come is most likely from its lousy maintainability, stupid design which reduces its range and pathetic choice of dogfight nimbleness over combat radius.

China is working on nozzles to reduce IR and RCS signatures.

China exhibits fighter jet engine with 2D thrust vectoring control nozzle - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

I agree the Texas’s F404/F414 is the gold standard of engines in its weight class. But that doesn’t mean the Chinese can’t catch up to near its performance parameters in due time; 5-10 years. We will get some hint when the CJ-1000A data becomes public.