PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[hyperman]

Hi,

See---you are not knowledgeable about the J-10 procurement---

When the J-10 was procured---it was the need of the moment---because the JF17 BLK 3 was still going thru the integration of its ECM's / EW package etc---it was not ready.

OTOH---the J10 C was fully operational and we put it into service while getting the JF17 ready---.

The reason the price of the aircraft is cheap---not for the reason you are thinking of---.

It is because the end user is a partner in building this machine---. Our Engineers get paid $5000-6000 a year---our techs are at $2500---3000 a year---our higher end personal may cost us $12000-15000 a year in salary---or maybe a little more.

Whereas your corporate executive maybe making a million dollars a year---an engineer making 120-150K a year---a tech making $60K --- 90 K a year and not to talk about senior executive.

Then your fake overhead costs to offset for profit etc etc etc---.

On the chinese side---the income would be more than the pakistani side---but a $50 part will not go for $500 part but rather stay close to its original price.

Seemingly---you missed out on that---.

yea yea yea, somehow you figured out a special hack to make something thats $100M for $25M, I don't believe that nonsense even accounting for purchasing power. I mean lets just compare the J-10s cost to the JF-17s, if its the same thing, why doesn't china just induct JF-17s?

As for the other thing, I don't buy it either, they chose to induct a completely different plane(training, maintenance, etc etc) b/c a subsystem wasn't ready? India got Rafales in 2019, the J-10s came to Pakistan in 2022. The JF-17 block 3 came in 2023. So they waited 3 years to get J-10Cs b/c of a delay in JF-17 Block 3s when the JF-17 Block 3 literally came a year later. 3 year vs 4 years? you expect people to believe this nonsense? No, the PAF bought it, b/c the J-10C is a far more capable plane and one a lot more comparable to the Rafale, than the JF-17s.

 

[hyperman]

JF-17 Block-2, JF-17B, and JF-17C/Block-3 can refuel in the air.

Second, please quantify and qualify what you mean by "radar is not as strong."

Does "not as strong" mean it's practically unable to support the JF-17's LRAAMs (like SD-10 and PL-15E)? Is the KLJ-7A AESA radar (used on the JF-17C and, later, JF-17B and Block-2) too weak to support those AAMs? And if the radar is strong enough, then can the JF-17 pose a credible long-range threat to other fighters?

The powerplant is much weaker, the sensor range is much smaller, idk why this is being even debated. You can have amazing range AAM, but assuming there isn't an AWACS to guide them, and you are operating solo, the other guy will have a longer detection range and will launch before you will.

Payload capacity is also smaller. Look I'm not knocking the JF-17, its a good aircraft for what its designed for, to provide bulk. And its probably the most budget friendly option on the market for what it delivers, but this idea that its in the same class an a F-16V or Eurofighter Tranche 4, its just silly.

 

[Oscar]

Indeed, but in fairness (and I say this with caution), Iran wasn't the focal point of Pakistan's conventional or strategic posture.

From day one (1947), Iran (under the Shah) had supported Pakistan, and since the Revolution, things - while shakey - had never escalated into a cross-border strike of this scope. Iran was never an "enemy" (like India), but, at most, a 'frenemy.' And, until now, the Pakistani leadership thought it could handle this 'frenemy' in a certain way (via their established channels).

My point is that the requisite assets for stopping a ballistic missile or drone strike from Iran weren't there because, until now, Pakistan never expected it to reach that point.

However, Pakistan's failing here is that our intelligence and wider intelligentsia didn't see this coming. Tehran didn't come to this point overnight, and I genuinely think ISI et.al should have picked up the signs and alerted the tri-services of a potential problem.

Anyways, the damage was done. Now, Pakistan will need to post permanent conventional and (IMO) nuclear/strategic deployments to its Western front.

Now, the irony of this problem is that Pakistan can reinforce its West with the F-16s, with the JF-17Cs and J-10CEs handling the East. Iran has opened a pathway for Pakistan to speak to the US about additional F-16s and munitions, especially SOWs. @Oscar A while ago (on the old forum) I said the US could push Pakistan to focus on Iran and Afghanistan. With this one strike, Tehran has made that conversation much easier (for both sides).

Unfortunately - the conditions that would open up additional capabilities for the F-16 are offset by the overwhelming compulsion to focus on China. The US was trying its best to disengage from the Middle East conflicts prior to the Gaza war.

That is still a goal for US foreign policy and with elections around the corner the democrats are relying on pro-India votes and stances(which includes the Israeli lobby) to secure a win.

What is indeed surprising is that the intelligence services either missed this strike entirely through not calculating Tehran’s desperation to lash out or their assets in country are unfocused/degraded or a combination of both.

BUT, taking the trends of alerts and how they are missed up the chain - it is EQUALLY likely that intel was surfaced but dismissed up the chain of command or the responsible institution(isn’t always the military) like so many terror attack warnings are in Pakistan anyway. @RescueRanger

 

[MastanKhan]

yea yea yea, somehow you figured out a special hack to make something thats $100M for $25M, I don't believe that nonsense even accounting for purchasing power. I mean lets just compare the J-10s cost to the JF-17s, if its the same thing, why doesn't china just induct JF-17s?

As for the other thing, I don't buy it either, they chose to induct a completely different plane(training, maintenance, etc etc) b/c a subsystem wasn't ready? India got Rafales in 2019, the J-10s came to Pakistan in 2022. The JF-17 block 3 came in 2023. So they waited 3 years to get J-10Cs b/c of a delay in JF-17 Block 3s when the JF-17 Block 3 literally came a year later. 3 year vs 4 years? you expect people to believe this nonsense? No, the PAF bought it, b/c the J-10C is a far more capable plane and one a lot more comparable to the Rafale, than the JF-17s.

Hi,

You may buy or don't buy---don't mean much---.

I don't mean to be insulting but your converstaion level is going down. We decided in 2019 when india got the Rafale---which aircraft was readily available---and that was the J10-C.

Before getting the aircraft to pakistan----pilots had to be trained on the J-10C's---the maintenance crew & support staff trained on the aircraft---a service and maintenance level shop setup in pakistan---that is why it took about 2 1/2 to 3 years to bring in the J10's.

Now is that too much to understand for you.

Maybe I know why---your true colors don't seem to be stars and stripes but the Tiranga. Most americans have better intellect.

 

[Quwa]

Unfortunately - the conditions that would open up additional capabilities for the F-16 are offset by the overwhelming compulsion to focus on China. The US was trying its best to disengage from the Middle East conflicts prior to the Gaza war.

That is still a goal for US foreign policy and with elections around the corner the democrats are relying on pro-India votes and stances(which includes the Israeli lobby) to secure a win.

What is indeed surprising is that the intelligence services either missed this strike entirely through not calculating Tehran’s desperation to lash out or their assets in country are unfocused/degraded or a combination of both.

BUT, taking the trends of alerts and how they are missed up the chain - it is EQUALLY likely that intel was surfaced but dismissed up the chain of command or the responsible institution(isn’t always the military) like so many terror attack warnings are in Pakistan anyway. @RescueRanger

Absolutely. I forgot about the US' efforts to resolve Middle East issues so that it can focus on China. In that sense, preventing a conflict between Pakistan and Iran would be the priority; so, it wouldn't surprise me if our side diffuses the situation. Escalating with Iran could run against American interests.

 

[Corax]

Indeed, but in fairness (and I say this with caution), Iran wasn't the focal point of Pakistan's conventional or strategic posture.

From day one (1947), Iran (under the Shah) had supported Pakistan, and since the Revolution, things - while shakey - had never escalated into a cross-border strike of this scope. Iran was never an "enemy" (like India), but, at most, a 'frenemy.' And, until now, the Pakistani leadership thought it could handle this 'frenemy' in a certain way (via their established channels).

My point is that the requisite assets for stopping a ballistic missile or drone strike from Iran weren't there because, until now, Pakistan never expected it to reach that point.

However, Pakistan's failing here is that our intelligence and wider intelligentsia didn't see this coming. Tehran didn't come to this point overnight, and I genuinely think ISI et.al should have picked up the signs and alerted the tri-services of a potential problem.

Anyways, the damage was done. Now, Pakistan will need to post permanent conventional and (IMO) nuclear/strategic deployments to its Western front.

Now, the irony of this problem is that Pakistan can reinforce its West with the F-16s, with the JF-17Cs and J-10CEs handling the East. Iran has opened a pathway for Pakistan to speak to the US about additional F-16s and munitions, especially SOWs. @Oscar A while ago (on the old forum) I said the US could push Pakistan to focus on Iran and Afghanistan. With this one strike, Tehran has made that conversation much easier (for both sides).

Let's all calm down shall we, with this single strike, the PAF isn't going to get Block-70 Vipers lol I know Pakistanis love to exaggerate, but this is ridiculous. Forgot about Iran when it comes it ABM, you don't even have anything for your main foe India. Even they have something in the works for ABM against Pakistani missiles, even if it is at a nascent stage. For all the muscle flexing by the Iranians, their missiles won't be worth much against Israeli and US ABM capability. And yes, the Pakistani intelligence and ISI dropped a ball on this.

 

[Quwa]

Let's all calm down shall we, with this single strike, the PAF isn't going to get Block-70 Vipers lol I know Pakistanis love to exaggerate, but this is ridiculous. Forgot about Iran when it comes it ABM, you don't even have anything for your main foe India. Even they have something in the works for ABM against Pakistani missiles, even if it is at a nascent stage. For all the muscle flexing by the Iranians, their missiles won't be worth much against Israeli and US ABM capability. And yes, the Pakistani intelligence and ISI dropped a ball on this.

Where did I say 'Block-70?'

 

[Quwa]

The powerplant is much weaker, the sensor range is much smaller, idk why this is being even debated. You can have amazing range AAM, but assuming there isn't an AWACS to guide them, and you are operating solo, the other guy will have a longer detection range and will launch before you will.

Payload capacity is also smaller. Look I'm not knocking the JF-17, its a good aircraft for what its designed for, to provide bulk. And its probably the most budget friendly option on the market for what it delivers, but this idea that its in the same class an a F-16V or Eurofighter Tranche 4, its just silly.

Is the sensor range of the KLJ-7A too weak for the PL-15E?

...and why would you assume that an AEW&C wouldn't be there to guide the JF-17 when the PAF is the largest operator of the Erieye?

 

[Corax]

Where did I say 'Block-70?'

Getting anymore equipment form thr US now it a fantasy.

 

[nahtanbob]

Unfortunately - the conditions that would open up additional capabilities for the F-16 are offset by the overwhelming compulsion to focus on China. The US was trying its best to disengage from the Middle East conflicts prior to the Gaza war.

That is still a goal for US foreign policy and with elections around the corner the democrats are relying on pro-India votes and stances(which includes the Israeli lobby) to secure a win.

What is indeed surprising is that the intelligence services either missed this strike entirely through not calculating Tehran’s desperation to lash out or their assets in country are unfocused/degraded or a combination of both.

BUT, taking the trends of alerts and how they are missed up the chain - it is EQUALLY likely that intel was surfaced but dismissed up the chain of command or the responsible institution(isn’t always the military) like so many terror attack warnings are in Pakistan anyway. @RescueRanger

Do you ever learn anything from history ?

Seriously with a hostile India, USA-China rivalry and unsettled Taliban in Afghanistan Pakistan should avoid starting something with Iran.

The optics looks bad if you do not respond. You have to suck it up. The Pakistani Army is pretty experienced at that. No offense meant.

 

[Quwa]

Getting anymore equipment form thr US now it a fantasy.

Pakistan always had a hot/cold relationship with the US. This isn't new. However, when security interests align, something generally comes through.

For example, the PAF quietly acquired a couple dozen TPS-77 MRRs, a potent gap-filler radar using GaN TRMs. The US also permitted the Belgians to sell their C-130Hs to the PAF. So, in this context, 'additional F-16s' can simply result in more second-hand or mothballed fighters, or a quiet transfer of more SNIPER targeting pods or, possibly (albeit unlikely) a guided SOW.

We don't need to swing across extremes when analyzing an issue. Yes, the PAF isn't getting any Block-70/72s (not once did I say that), but to say absolutely nothing will come is also, equally, disingenuous. There could even be some third-party systems that the PAF is interested in, but can't currently acquire due to key ITAR inputs. The US could, potentially, greenlight those.

 

[Oscar]

Do you ever learn anything from history ?

Seriously with a hostile India, USA-China rivalry and unsettled Taliban in Afghanistan Pakistan should avoid starting something with Iran.

The optics looks bad if you do not respond. You have to suck it up. The Pakistani Army is pretty experienced at that. No offense meant.

You’ll find no objection with me in that - Im just pointing out the dynamics of weapons procurement in this scenario

 

[Corax]

Pakistan always had a hot/cold relationship with the US. This isn't new. However, when security interests align, something generally comes through.

For example, the PAF quietly acquired a couple dozen TPS-77 MRRs, a potent gap-filler radar using GaN TRMs. The US also permitted the Belgians to sell their C-130Hs to the PAF. So, in this context, 'additional F-16s' can simply result in more second-hand or mothballed fighters, or a quiet transfer of more SNIPER targeting pods or, possibly (albeit unlikely) a guided SOW.

We don't need to swing across extremes when analyzing an issue. Yes, the PAF isn't getting any Block-70/72s (not once did I say that), but to say absolutely nothing will come is also, equally, disingenuous. There could even be some third-party systems that the PAF is interested in, but can't currently acquire due to key ITAR inputs. The US could, potentially, greenlight those.

A single missile strike by Iran is not going to align US policy with Pakistan.

 

[nahtanbob]

You’ll find no objection with me in that - Im just pointing out the dynamics of weapons procurement in this scenario

I am not sure USA wants a fight with Iran and vice versa. Even the Saudis have made a truce probably a temporary one with Iranians

In that sense I do not see F-16s flowing into the PAF

 

[Quwa]

A single missile strike by Iran is not going to align US policy with Pakistan.

No, but the potential fallout can.

Sure, Pakistan might not respond to Iran with an attack, but from this point on, it may join (with others) in exerting pressure on Iran. Discussions can be had with the US (and others) on what that pressure may look like and, in turn, what Pakistan needs to properly apply it.

For GHQ, Iran has upgraded itself from a shaky neighbor or frenemy to an enemy. We have now gone from weighing potential gas deals and investments with Iran to posting a proper military presence on our southwestern front. It's not trivial, and that can affect US interests.

Yes, the US doesn't need an Iran-Pakistan war on its plate (when it's actively trying to diffuse conflicts in the Middle East). However, Pakistan playing a more proactive role in curbing Iran across other domains may be welcomed, and that can open up a few ITAR permits or third-party transfers.

I am not sure USA wants a fight with Iran and vice versa. Even the Saudis have made a truce probably a temporary one with Iranians

In that sense I do not see F-16s flowing into the PAF

Honestly, even after 9/11, folks didn't see the US releasing AIM-120C5s to the PAF, or JDAMs, or even Block-52+. The most folks were expecting in 2002/2003 were used F-16A/Bs. Now, I'm NOT saying the PAF would get the latest F-16 variant, but I do think used airframes are plausible.