Pak-Afghan Border Skirmishes and Terrorism Watch

Signalian said:
I think we assume and judge about Pakistan's top leadership decisions according to the dimensions of limitations of our minds. We let our mind wander towards conspiracy theories and then try to connect the dots somehow to prove ourselves right - which may not be correct at all. If we dont go towards conspiracy theories, then we assume based on experiences, knowledge, information and intelligence.

In reality, we dont know what is happening behind closed doors in those rooms , how those decisions are being taken about Pakistan and the issues Pakistan faces today.
Click to expand...
With the caveat that we assume there are at least 20% competent and honest people behind those doors.
 
Awwad said:
If Pakistan is serious to end the TTP threat, then it must recreate the intelligence network in Afghanistan. Its going to spy agencies game. You simply cannot go to war with whole of afghanistan that will never yield any results and you have no resources to that at first place without compromising security at every side.

The art of intel agencies is they can help you achieve strategic goals. A capable intel agency can penetrate into ranks of enemy, you can even attack Taliban as TTP members or you could do the vice versa. You don't let them join forces ever. OR you could create tensions at Afg-iran border and you make them busy elsewhere. Even if you need to find the top chain of command of TTP or an individual with deep links to TTP within Taliban then you need spy agency to find and eliminate such.

Its time intel agencies in Pak must focus on outside instead of focusing on internal political parties. They have lost a lot of ground and credibility because of their sheer incompetence. I can only imagine that RAW must have built more presence in afg than isi and the results look that way too. Pak had opportunity post 2021 to rebuild its network in afg. But it got busy internally with regime change op and whatever that followed. Critical time is lost. Still its never too late to work on that direction.
Click to expand...

Fantastic point. Not sure what is going on except it looks our intelligence has gone down in JammuKashmir and also Afghanistan.
 
@Oscar
@Signalian

Yes, it is true that no outsider, and particularly not outsiders who are even further outside, can know what is going on within.

Take those meetings behind closed doors as a black box.

The inputs made, the resources available, and the outputs seem to show that nothing that is happening inside holds out much hope for positive gains.
 
_NOBODY_ said:
You forgot to include Sindh and now this makes up the vast majority of Pakistan so my point is perfectly valid.
Click to expand...
Sindhis are staunchly distinguishing their culture from even Punjab.

There is about 700 kilometres of desert and impassable salty wastes separating mainland Sindh from mainland India.

Sindh is probably more similar to Balochistan than anywhere else.
 
Saifullah said:
The neighbourhood is already destabilized and I don’t see how having Wakhan will make it stable. Maybe there’s something I’m missing or not understanding. I don’t see how Pakistan can annex Wakhan and prevent war with Taliban. However, you are more knowledgeable than me on this. How I view it is Pakistan already has too much on its plate and india still remains the greater threat. Iran and Afghanistan are pawns in India’s game.
Click to expand...

The Pakistani military follows US dictation. As long as the Americans don't approve nothing will happen.
 
FuturePAF said:
This is why a direct rail route to China through Gilgit/Baltistan is fast becoming a necessity. Ideally it would have been nice to work with the Afghans but either we are seen by them as groveling for what would be mutually beneficial relationship, or we are dealing with their instability and irredentist claims. Better to skip all that, work with China and build the bloody rail line, and secure a more secure route to Central Asia. Sideline Afghanistan and fortify the border with Afghans with a deep ditch and minefields were necessary, and wait for them to come to us for business deals as we work on fixing our internal problems. Pakistan needs to find way to not be dependent upon the Afghans what so ever.

Pakistan needs to have the bandwidth to remove Afghan politics from the front of Pakistani minds.

Let the FC become a more capable and robust constabulary force and properly police the border and reduce areas to identify and deal with the miscreants with the national borders while the Army raises enough troops to man the western borders (both Afghanistan and Iran) in full force.

P.s. it appears like the powers that be are trying to waffling on everything but particularly on how to deal with the Afghans, trying to split the difference and in that indecisive attitude the Afghans are deciding to use Chabahar over Gwadar.
Click to expand...

We all know and understand what is in the best interest of Pakistan. The military that calls the shots is following orders from the Americans. You understand where I am getting at. Without US permission not a leaf can move in Pakistan. There used to be three A's in Pakistan. Nowadays there is only one A left, namely the Americans.
 
One thing that I liked about the recent political stuff with youthiyas is how it exposed how weak our administrative competency is. Everyone was like a zombie and praised everything calling it lumber 1 and wouldn't accept being told harsh realities like your entire political security establishment is low quality.

But ISI is either compromised from within by pro-Afghan sentiments who have options but won't explore them cause of an Afghan fetish (visible even in this thread) or it's a very weak organisation with poor analysis to identify things to exploit.
 
Ideally what ISI should be doing is brain storming.

Conventional options and non-conventional options.

Afghanistan is a weak country so if you had a clear objective - going straight to Conventional means would be faster and easier.

But there is a lot of long-term benefit & control in the sub-conventional domain. Firstly you won't find any reliable ally among the Afghan Pashtuns, they form the extremist anti-Pakistan fundamentalists or religious extremists.

ISI should try to infiltrate the NRF internally - and slowly mould the ideology by promoting a strong unity among Farsiwan people especially Tajiks - and the common enemy should be Afghans who they blame for their poor condition.

Then set up camps on the model of Taliban style but produce the above ideology militants. This could work well.
 
Saifullah said:
The neighbourhood is already destabilized and I don’t see how having Wakhan will make it stable.
Click to expand...
The logic behind Wakhan isn't to somehow defeat the Taliban, its for independent physical land access into Central Asia.

Defeating the Taliban is only really possible by sponsoring a group that can maintain control over Kabul and suppress them.

But you might not have to defeat them, just keep them boxed up in Kabul by establishing a buffer zone at the Afghan border and regular airstrikes against anything you perceive as a threat to you.

Afghanistan should not be allowed to amass any military strength under Pakistan's national security consideration.
 
90% of Pakistani "analysis" is so ignorant and submissive that its obvious they have no clue about what the real sentiment is in Afghanistan or what's coming for them very soon.

The amount of them that say brother saar peace saar, or suspend any thoughts by just conveniently blaming everything on "evil fauj saar" is just pitiful.

You have no clue what's coming for you, Afghanistan is weak but it is politically strong and united. They have no confusion when it comes to their goal with Pakistan, and it's not good.
 
Last edited:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1773772760533041554

Translation:
The fearless, successful and accurate guerrilla attacks of the resistance are considered a vital step in the path of liberating our country from terrorism. It is very remarkable and commendable that despite the massive population in Kabul, harming civilians is always avoided. In a city like Kabul, where every Tajik is generally viewed as an enemy and monitored by checkpoints and security cameras, the execution of such detailed operations shows the extraordinary professionalism, courage and bravery of our resistance fighters. We constantly think of you brave warriors and honor your unforgettable deeds.

Committing terrorism to combat terrorism, gotcha.
 
Last edited:
Wasn’t there rumours Taliban is trying to acquire loitering munitions from Iran?
What ttp posted is most likely a useless model but the potential of loitering munitions being acquired by Taliban/ttp is there.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)

Pakistan Defence Latest

Country Watch Latest

Latest Posts

Share this page

Back
Top