Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

j_hungary said:
Again, you are talking about available manpower

First of all, if they can use it in Kursk, that mean by that deduction, they can use it on anywhere. Because you are using it regardless.

Second, if that is true, that mean they choose overusing it in Kursk rather than in Donbas, because that's the fact here, those force are now in Kursk, not Donbas

So again, setting aside the entire Ukrainian high command (Zelenskyy, Sryisky the lot) suddenly went insane overnight and use the troop for a nothing objective, the command decision choose Kursk mean there are more advantage to attack in Kursk than use them in Donbas and reinforce the line. That's the logical decision.

There is a reason why those troop were used in Kursk instead of Donbas, the situation in Donbas before the incursion is not that desperate enough for Zelenskyy to risk starting a nuclear war over by invading Kursk just to create a divesion, Putin warns multiple time that they will use nuke if Russian territories was threatened, nothing is more threaten than an actual invasion in Russian territories.

On the other hand, 3 out of 6 Ukrainian (5, 15 and 17) armored brigade and 2 out of 3 Ukrainian brigade using Western tank are missing (47, 93). We only have 82nd Air Assault Brigade we know is operating in Kursk, and we know Ukraine took the delivery of 200+ leo 1 tank (which largely ignored by the media) which mean those element aren't disbanded, Russia need to account for those, and I hope they have intelligence on where these formation currently based, especially 47th when it was used in the summer offensive last year, which give them more than a year to reconstitute.
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The one thing I would add to your thoughts on the second choice Ukraine has with the Kursk front is by invading Kursk the Ukrainians caused Russia to bring in tens of thousands of troops that were otherwise doing nothing. If Ukraine pulls from that front it will automatically become an offensive for Russia now that the everything necessary for an offensive has been brought into place. If Ukraine continues to push in the Kursk front too much blood will be spilled and that will be the end of Ukraine as a nation. If Ukraine withdraws to shore up their eastern front, Russia will move in and take Sumy and Kharkav, this scenario will save many more lives and maybe even the nation of Ukraine. The best scenario Ukraine had was the offer that was put forth by Putin that would of saved everyman's life that has been lost since then.
 
KingQamaR said:
The one thing I would add to your thoughts on the second choice Ukraine has with the Kursk front is by invading Kursk the Ukrainians caused Russia to bring in tens of thousands of troops that were otherwise doing nothing. If Ukraine pulls from that front it will automatically become an offensive for Russia now that the everything necessary for an offensive has been brought into place.
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Not necessary, depends on two things. Whether or not Ukraine have reserve on Sumy front, and whether or not Ukraine can withdraw from contact.

seeing that Ukraine attack with 5 Brigades, even if they use one to cover the withdraw of the other 4 and completely lost that Brigade, there are still major force remain, it will not be an automatic offensive from the Russian, that's almost certain if Ukraine do have operational reserve, seeing that Sumy is very close to Kyiv, they probably have a few defensive brigade in reserve covering the approach to Kyiv, which they can push up.

It also depends on when will Russia roll over the Ukrainian, it's almost 4 weeks now (24 days) since the incursion, if Russia took more than 6 months (almost 4 weeks already gone) to roll the line back, that's over a regeneration cycle.

KingQamaR said:
If Ukraine continues to push in the Kursk front too much blood will be spilled and that will be the end of Ukraine as a nation. If Ukraine withdraws to shore up their eastern front, Russia will move in and take Sumy and Kharkav, this scenario will save many more lives and maybe even the nation of Ukraine. The best scenario Ukraine had was the offer that was put forth by Putin that would of saved everyman's life that has been lost since then.
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It wouldn't. First of all, it's unlikely they will reinforce the line using whatever they used in Kursk, because again, they already use them in Kursk, as I said, if Donbas is really that desperate, they would have use them in Donbas instead of Kursk

Again, think about how Ukraine roll over those area first, this mean Ukraine would have force there where Russia don't, which mean whatever force Russia scourge up to repel the Ukrainian, however long it take, would have to be staying in position because they were where those force supposed to be (Russia were supposed to reinforce those area so this does not happen to begin with) Popping them down at Sumy means you are putting itself on the same strategic mistake that you did before the Kursk incursion.

I don't see it ever happening unless Russia have some sort of gigantic numerical advantage like 10 to 1. And that's not going to happen, because if they do, the war in donbas will not be dragging on for 2 and a half year.

Don't know what you think about the force Ukraine use in Kursk, it's 5 Brigades, it's by no mean a big force, we aren't talking about Ukraine pushing 15 Brigade in Kursk, you are talking about approx. 12000 men if full strength (Ukraine Brigade is smaller than a US Brigade, even with US Brigade it's around 20,000) That's a division of men. If a million strong force need to depend on that division to survive anywhere, then they probably should have just surrender already........

I mean this is the concentration on Kursk

1724950883383.png

Compare to Kharkiv

1724950930813.png

and Prokrovsk

1724951021685.png
 
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j_hungary said:
It's pointless in strategic term to take control of all those province and stop the war, effectively you are giving 60% of Ukraine to NATO. Because once the war stop, they will join NATO, whether or not they relinquish claim of those province.
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Ukraine will join NATO anyway and in any scenario Russia will have more leverage in the eventual negotiations if it has a stronger hand (i.e., controls more Ukrainian land).

j_hungary said:
On the other hand, look at the map

This is Donetsk (not Donbas) in 2023 (red is a roughly traced border of Donetsk)
View attachment 61743

This is 2024

View attachment 61744

Unless Russia start picking things up, it is going to take a generation (16 to 20 years) to completely take control of Donetsk. Also not to forget for first half the 2024 and 2 months in 2023 Ukraine keep crying on the withheld Ukraine aid bill.....which is not going to be a matter in 2025 and 2026 since the bill has passed
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Looks like good progress near the centre after a long period of inaction. with momentum and breaching certain defensive lines things can shift quickly. looks like we are witnessing that now in Donetsk. The position in another 6-12 months will be very different. Russia can fight another 5 years if needed.
 
Persian Gulf said:
First Ukraine F-16 destroyed
https://twitter.com/x/status/1829164922405826681
1 down ...
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Wasn't a normal crash, I am sure.
Most probably shot down.
Like I said before F-16 will lose all the reputation it earned in last 40+ years.
Ukrainian pilots cannot learn those tactics in months which professional pilots learn in years.
Besides Ukraine is corrupt to the core even in learning/training.
 
Persian Gulf said:
Ukraine will join NATO anyway and in any scenario Russia will have more leverage in the eventual negotiations if it has a stronger hand (i.e., controls more Ukrainian land).
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First of all, Ukraine will join NATO, and Russia is not that part of the equation. So I don't see any gain from Russia unless they manage to capture it.

For example, if NATO offer Ukraine a membership deal in exchange of them ceding all the territories Russia currently hold tomorrow, that would satisfy the NATO requirment, and it will stop Russia on the track, and there are pretty much nothing Russia can do unless they want a direct war on NATO.

Persian Gulf said:
Looks like good progress near the centre after a long period of inaction. with momentum and breaching certain defensive lines things can shift quickly. looks like we are witnessing that now in Donetsk. The position in another 6-12 months will be very different. Russia can fight another 5 years if needed.
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Umm......been hearing this "The position in another 6 to 12 months will be very different" But then....

As of Aug 29, 2024

1724953709338.png

as of Feb 29 2024

1724953761612.png
as of Aug 29, 2023

1724953798619.png

as of Feb 28, 2023

1724953841674.png

as of Aug 28 2022

1724953886118.png

I see a lot more Red than Green on Aug 28, 2022 than on Aug 29 2024......So........I mean, sure, of course you can hope that will happen, statistically it's very unlikely tho, think of it this way, after capturing another 10% of Donbas (However long that gonna take) will probably bring the Russian the same level as it was in August 2022......Anything they do now is just making up the different from the 2 successful counter offensive Ukrainian did during 2022......
 
j_hungary said:
First of all, Ukraine will join NATO, and Russia is not that part of the equation. So I don't see any gain from Russia unless they manage to capture it.

For example, if NATO offer Ukraine a membership deal in exchange of them ceding all the territories Russia currently hold tomorrow, that would satisfy the NATO requirment, and it will stop Russia on the track, and there are pretty much nothing Russia can do unless they want a direct war on NATO.
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Ukraine's stated position is not to cede its territory, let alone 75% of those huge oblasts. If they were to turn around and accept that deal Zelensky the comedian might start a civil war (especially since they have been feeding Ukrainian insane hopium from the start of the war).

I think it is more likely that Russia cedes some territory in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO, but who knows. If the US wanted Ukraine in NATO they could have done it by now.

j_hungary said:
Umm......been hearing this "The position in another 6 to 12 months will be very different" But then....

I see a lot more Red than Green on Aug 28, 2022 than on Aug 29 2024......So........I mean, sure, of course you can hope that will happen, statistically it's very unlikely tho
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As I said, momentum can shift quickly after long periods of little action and I think that is exactly what we are witnessing now in Donetsk.
 
TopGun786 said:
Wasn't a normal crash, I am sure.
Most probably shot down.
Like I said before F-16 will lose all the reputation it earned in last 40+ years.
Ukrainian pilots cannot learn those tactics in months which professional pilots learn in years.
Besides Ukraine is corrupt to the core even in learning/training.
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Russian air force has also been useless but the idea that 6 F-16s can survive for long in this war is pretty fanciful. Best for Ukraine to keep them far away from Russian borders in concrete shelters and to use them only in a defensive capacity.
 
Persian Gulf said:
Ukraine's stated position is not to cede its territory, let alone 75% of those huge oblasts. If they were to turn around and accept that deal Zelensky the comedian might start a civil war (especially since they have been feeding Ukrainian insane hopium from the start of the war).
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It wouldn't be a civil war. Because as Zelenskyy stated, any type of ceding territories will have to be thru a referendum.

Which mean it was not pitches against the war, it pitches against the willingness to join NATO and willingness to continue on the war.

IIRC, there are more Ukrainian wanted to join NATO than not cede an inch to the Russian

Persian Gulf said:
I think it is more likely that Russia cedes some territory in exchange for Ukraine not joining NATO, but who knows. If the US wanted Ukraine in NATO they could have done it by now.
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Ukraine is joining NATO, that's not even a question. They are using our aircraft, our tanks, our artillery, and soon with Ada Class Corvette put into service, our warship, using our intelligence component, using our training manual, using our communication protocol.

Do you think there is a chance NATO will let Ukraine off and let them go back to Russia or even China with all the NATO secret?

I am pretty sure NATO is not going to rewrite all those, it would be simpler, A LOT simpler to just let Ukraine join....

The reason why US don't lay out the plan is because Russia still not able to control the situation, even if Ukraine lose the entire Donbas, then what? This is not a threat to Ukraine existence. And as I said, this is several years or even decade away.
Persian Gulf said:
As I said, momentum can shift quickly after long periods of little action and I think that is exactly what we are witnessing now in Donetsk.
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First of all, I wouldn't call 40 km in 6 months "shifted quickly" and again, that is with probably the darkest time for Ukraine when the US literally hang it out to dry for 7 months during Nov 2023 to April 2024.....

We aren't talking about a counter offensive in a scale the Ukrainian did to out maneuver the Russian and retaken a large swath of land, we are talking about a conventional line offensive on Russia grinding down Ukrainian defence. It's not going to have 1000 sq kilometer swing overnight.

As I mentioned before, there are also a lot of Ukrainian units missing in the battlefield, those unit were not accounted for, especially the 47th Brigade when it lead the charge on last year counter offensive, that was virtually unheard of since, and they should be by now back up to full strength with new supply of Abrams and Bradley as reported Feb 2024. If I was the Russian, I would want to know why I only see 5 out of 9 known armored brigade in Kursk and Prokrovsk.
 
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