Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates

j_hungary said:
That's what happened to the Ukrainian. They can choose either become indebted to NATO or US, or get rolled over and become an Russian slave.

The same cannot be said to the Russian, they are destined to be Chinese biatches because they started this. No one ask them to start this, let alone failing it. Their intention and their lack of capability now making them become Yes-Man for the Chinese. They did that to themselves, I don't think you can blame anyone else.

In fact, Putin already swollowed Chinese juice because of this war.....

www.lemonde.fr

China is redefining its borders with its neighbors, including Russia

On August 28, the publication of the 2023 edition of the 'National Map of China' provoked outraged reactions in India, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan.
www.lemonde.fr www.lemonde.fr

China is redefining its borders with its neighbors, including Russia​


View attachment 60988
Is it worth it for this war so when Xi said "Jump", Putin said "How High"? Eh?
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I think the Chinese are very happy with this arrangement. Putin got pulled into a conflict which he thought would be over like the Georgia one. His been outmanouvered.

However one thing with the Russians they dont give up easily regardless of the cost of men and equipment. They will keep coming like arnie in terminator.
 
lightning f57 said:
I think the Chinese are very happy with this arrangement. Putin got pulled into a conflict which he thought would be over like the Georgia one. His been outmanouvered.

However one thing with the Russians they dont give up easily regardless of the cost of men and equipment. They will keep coming like arnie in terminator.
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It's not that easy tho.

It will take Russia generally anywhere between 16-20 years to complete the Donbas operation considering there are still 16,000 sq km of Donbas to go and they are making around 900-1000km a year, assuming it all go Russia way and we are using the current metric of Russian progress, if Ukraine were able to went over and claw some territories back, that would make it even longer.

That's almost certain outside Putin lifespan, so the question would become would the next person see this as personal as Putin did? And if yes, how long can they hold on? I mean that a very long time if it was doable at all, and then you need to know what next? Because if the war end there, rest of Ukraine join NATO, and there is pretty much nothing Russia can do, and that would mean the originally goal null and void, which mean it's basically all or bust for Russia, and we know for a fact unless Kyiv itself was threatened, they won't drop their NATO bid, so you are talking about after the next 2 decade of war, you are looking at another 20 years or so war to get to Kyiv, and you can't stop because if you stop, Ukraine will join NATO. Can they stomach a 40+ years war just because of this? I seriously doubt it.
 
j_hungary said:
It's not that easy tho.

It will take Russia generally anywhere between 16-20 years to complete the Donbas operation considering there are still 16,000 sq km of Donbas to go and they are making around 900-1000km a year, assuming it all go Russia way and we are using the current metric of Russian progress, if Ukraine were able to went over and claw some territories back, that would make it even longer.

That's almost certain outside Putin lifespan, so the question would become would the next person see this as personal as Putin did? And if yes, how long can they hold on? I mean that a very long time if it was doable at all, and then you need to know what next? Because if the war end there, rest of Ukraine join NATO, and there is pretty much nothing Russia can do, and that would mean the originally goal null and void, which mean it's basically all or bust for Russia, and we know for a fact unless Kyiv itself was threatened, they won't drop their NATO bid, so you are talking about after the next 2 decade of war, you are looking at another 20 years or so war to get to Kyiv, and you can't stop because if you stop, Ukraine will join NATO. Can they stomach a 40+ years war just because of this? I seriously doubt it.
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I think you know wars dont work like this. No country can go on war for 20-40years at the rate of loss of people, economy, infrastructure, milirary equipment. Its not sustainable.

A big event or two will happen which will tilt the balance and then one side will get so much momentum the conflict will end.

I was joking about arnie, the Russians or Ukrainian are not robots war fatigue will take its toll eventually along with the devastation, then simply either both sides agree a truce and find an amacable solution or one side manages to get total victory.

Russia has the numbers but can they keep up with the equipment and weapons, Ukraine may have better equipment but their losses wont be too far off the Russians which longer term is not sustainable.
 
lightning f57 said:
I think you know wars dont work like this. No country can go on war for 20-40years at the rate of loss of people, economy, infrastructure, milirary equipment. Its not sustainable.

A big event or two will happen which will tilt the balance and then one side will get so much momentum the conflict will end.

I was joking about arnie, the Russians or Ukrainian are not robots war fatigue will take its toll eventually along with the devastation, then simply either both sides agree a truce and find an amacable solution or one side manages to get total victory.

Russia has the numbers but can they keep up with the equipment and weapons, Ukraine may have better equipment but their losses wont be too far off the Russians which longer term is not sustainable.
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What big event you are talking about? You don't have breakthrough unless you change the raw parameter, which mean to shift to Russian favor, Ukraine need to somehow lose the fight, and for Ukraine to breakthrough, Russia need to some how lost the edge.

Problem with resource is, as I mentioned many time before, Russia is big, but then Ukraine is not Estonia, or Switzerland in term of manpower. It can, and will last if they decided to dig deep, you are talking about 10 million draftable men (both male and female) between 18-50 out of their 41 million population, if they want to fight, they can dig very deep and it can take Russia literally decade to go over all those. Unless Russia mobilise themselves, I don't see how this would turn the situation against one and another.

It's easy to talk about what if XYZ happen then the war will tilt toward the other side, I mean, if this is the case, I can say if Ukraine elected a pro-Russian leader again sometime down the road they will capitulate, that is all true, but how likely it is to have that happen is the point of contention here, and at this point, there are no evidence to suggest either side will give. That's the problem here
 
j_hungary said:
What big event you are talking about? You don't have breakthrough unless you change the raw parameter, which mean to shift to Russian favor, Ukraine need to somehow lose the fight, and for Ukraine to breakthrough, Russia need to some how lost the edge.

Problem with resource is, as I mentioned many time before, Russia is big, but then Ukraine is not Estonia, or Switzerland in term of manpower. It can, and will last if they decided to dig deep, you are talking about 10 million draftable men (both male and female) between 18-50 out of their 41 million population, if they want to fight, they can dig very deep and it can take Russia literally decade to go over all those. Unless Russia mobilise themselves, I don't see how this would turn the situation against one and another.

It's easy to talk about what if XYZ happen then the war will tilt toward the other side, I mean, if this is the case, I can say if Ukraine elected a pro-Russian leader again sometime down the road they will capitulate, that is all true, but how likely it is to have that happen is the point of contention here, and at this point, there are no evidence to suggest either side will give. That's the problem here
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Ukraine does not have 41 million people. More like 30 million in the areas Kiev controls.
 
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j_hungary said:
It's not that easy tho.

It will take Russia generally anywhere between 16-20 years to complete the Donbas operation considering there are still 16,000 sq km of Donbas to go and they are making around 900-1000km a year, assuming it all go Russia way and we are using the current metric of Russian progress, if Ukraine were able to went over and claw some territories back, that would make it even longer.

That's almost certain outside Putin lifespan, so the question would become would the next person see this as personal as Putin did? And if yes, how long can they hold on? I mean that a very long time if it was doable at all, and then you need to know what next? Because if the war end there, rest of Ukraine join NATO, and there is pretty much nothing Russia can do, and that would mean the originally goal null and void, which mean it's basically all or bust for Russia, and we know for a fact unless Kyiv itself was threatened, they won't drop their NATO bid, so you are talking about after the next 2 decade of war, you are looking at another 20 years or so war to get to Kyiv, and you can't stop because if you stop, Ukraine will join NATO. Can they stomach a 40+ years war just because of this? I seriously doubt it.
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16 to 20 years is nothing. This is a 1,000 years conflict.
 
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