The Munir Doctrine

[EternalMortal]

It’s an aspirational document, not that different from the 2022-2026 National security document put out in 2021 in the time of the IK administration.

The key element not spelled out are the internal reforms necessary to adequately be able to focus and pivot to a long term foreign policy strategy. The last 50 years, especially post 1971, the national strategy seems to have been unify the nation under a more common Islamic identity and deal with the Afghan instability. Both have successfully but at the cost of a focus on economics.

https://static.theprint.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/NSP.pdf

National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026 - An appraisal | The Express Tribune

The much-touted National Security Policy of Pakistan (NSP) 2022-2026 is out after much fanfare

tribune.com.pk

This is the time we need to consolidate on Afghanistan, normalizing relations on favorable economic and security terms, and focus on Central Asia. If Pakistan can be the indispensable nation for the GCC and the west to get to Central Asia, under the noses of the Iranians and Russians, Pakistan will have found its place in the geopolitical and geo-economic landscape secure.

This is especially the time to do this, as Biden met this year with all the CARS at one meeting.

You're being contradictory here. On one hand you say Pakistan should not take part in great power politics but on the other you advocate aligning with the US in our dealings with CAR & that too as their tool. A tool that will be discarded once they don't need us in dealing with CARs. In any case, the US doesn't need us to engage with CARs right now anyways so your idea is not going to work to begin with.

What Pakistan needs to do is forge its OWN way. Enough of this mentality that we're only useful so long as we provide some temporary utility. This thinking is what got us into our miserable situation to begin with.

My suggestion: forge an economic union with muslim countries (that we can later turn into a political one) a la EU. Offsetting USA or Russia or China will come naturally if you're unified. More importantly, instead of being exploited by one country or another to advance their own interests we Muslims can start setting the agenda ourselves.

 

[Joe Shearer]

What Pakistan needs to do is forge its OWN way. Enough of this mentality that we're only useful so long as we provide some temporary utility. This thinking is what got us into our miserable situation to begin with.

 

[FuturePAF]

It has always long been the time for that. It just becomes more pressing as time goes by.

The issue is Pakistan has its unique flawed arrangement of social contract. It needs complete revolution and reset somehow, arteries of power are entirely clogged and hardened....and every typical reactionary thing done to this changes little.

There is also the issue with the "Islamic republics" in general with the maximalism-statism I described to you in the book thread that leads to this inevitably. Identitarian narrative with use of religion has an extra factor on top with Islam in that every Muslim country has far more Muslims outside the country borders than within it.... i.e what can be short circuited into the state....at odds with the nation's needs and localised references.

This squelches any positive parts of the intelligentsia....as they are corralled and herded to one narrative set by the power circles that be, this is the state of the anti-intellectualism that happens in such domineering power grabs. Pakistan has its own unique distillation of it.

Every country has an original sin, because the very act of creating a country out of many “nations” is an artificial process, or more aptly, a man made process.

Just as the Franks and before them the Celts lived on the land of modern day France, the modern French population is made up of different “French” peoples. The Breton of Brittany and the Occitan of Southern France may not have had common ethnic origins, but through the French kingdom/empire (starting with a unified kingdom under Charlemagne in the medieval period) and up to the French Republic, a nation was forged, and a common identity has coalesced. Btw, France is on its “fifth republic” if I remember correctly; a revision, if you were.

With life expectancy being an average 68 years and Pakistan being 77 years old, a certain amount of identity has hardened, especially since the lost of the eastern wing. It was only 80 years from the American victory at Yorktown in 1781 and the start of the American civil war in 1861.

It was after the civil war, when regional identifies could be slowly pushback to make way to a national identity over the subsequent 80 years.

Pakistan is due for a “Third Republic” period, considering what could be argued was the birth of the “Second Republic” since the fall of East Pakistan. Since then, territory has been mostly the same, these past 53 years, Urdu has become a more and more a Lingua Franca of a plurality of the population, if not as their first language, but certainly as many people’s second language, or third after English. Also, the effect of Zia and the decades of religion increased emphasis has defiantly elevated Islam to a greater consideration in the culture, despite how we actually live up to the principles it guides us to.

So while much has been forged, to really make people see themselves as Pakistani, a top down method of meritocracy and nation forming will have to be done, not unlike Singapore. Having people of different backgrounds live next to one another and policing people that act in a bigoted manner. Increased spending on education, and preventing people from asking about people’s backgrounds will have to be enforced. In short, money will have to be spend to raise up disenfranchised populations and ethnicities while having people travel to work in all parts of the country on a weighted meritocratic basis. Encouraging cross ethnic marriages is also a way to help spend this up, but that level of social engineering will face pushback, so it should be left alone. It may take a generation or two, but it’s the only way to really make lasting identity change. For this, PTI is best placed, due to its wide spread popularity, to enact these changes and not face as much push back from the majority of the population and a good chunk of the current stakeholders. Hopefully, this won’t take a physical revolution, but for cooler heads to see sense, for the sake of the greater good.

 

[FuturePAF]

You're being contradictory here. On one hand you say Pakistan should not take part in great power politics but on the other you advocate aligning with the US in our dealings with CAR & that too as their tool. A tool that will be discarded once they don't need us in dealing with CARs. In any case, the US doesn't need us to engage with CARs right now anyways so your idea is not going to work to begin with.

What Pakistan needs to do is forge its OWN way. Enough of this mentality that we're only useful so long as we provide some temporary utility. This thinking is what got us into our miserable situation to begin with.

My suggestion: forge an economic union with muslim countries (that we can later turn into a political one) a la EU. Offsetting USA or Russia or China will come naturally if you're unified. More importantly, instead of being exploited by one country or another to advance their own interests we Muslims can start setting the agenda ourselves.

Yes, I’m contradictory, if only because as @Joe Shearer points out, Pakistan is in no place to make an independent stance. Even the seemly more stable Muslim countries are trying to cut a deal with the global hegemon, the US, to serve their national interests.

What I’m saying is, to avoid being caught in the global contest, you have to satisfy both countries, but especially the US, the current global hegemon. A route to Central Asia is against the interests of Iran and Russia, but not necessarily China. Sure China loses some business, but it doesn’t threaten BRI. Iran and Russia on the other hand will lose influence and security from an American presence in the region, and because both Iran and Russia are allies of India to the detriment of Pakistan, screw em. (India is building up its military capabilities to a substantial extent on Russian tech, so slowing down Russia and helping China (our greatest military supplier) rise, economically, without agitating the US, should be our goal.)

Reaching the CARs through Pakistan is the only land route (the Caspian could be cut by the Russians or Iranians at any moment), and by getting the US on board with a CARs access project it could serve our interests of a stable relationship with Afghanistan (which also helps get them out of the global pariah status to some extent, which we can leverage) and builds a rail route to China for the cheapest costs to us, Free (Afghans have to foot the $5 billion bill for a trans-Afghan railway).

This is not a short terms utility. The US has spend 100 of billions of dollars against Russia and Iran in just the past decade, they want to find a path to their soft underbellies. None of the other Muslim nations are prioritizing Muslim countries over non-Muslim countries. Look at Iran’s behavior to us this year with their out of the blue strike. Besides, the Arabs won’t invest in Pakistan without some kind of utility Of Pakistan to the global economy. A corridor to the CARs is the only unique thing Pakistan can offer, and the opportunity for mining in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs for the GCC and the west.

Also, the US is looking for a way to bring Pakistan out from the China camp, to consider American interests as a matter of course and not transactionally, and this is one way to do that.

A stable Pakistan with an economy more integrated with US investments could also help ease the relationship between Pakistan and India, which fits US interests.

Again, not necessarily at China’s “expense”, but keeps Pakistan from having to cooperate more with China in ways that might be at America’s expense.

Considering how much the US is counting on India, a South Asia that trades more amongst itself, offers the potential for higher ROI for American investments in India, both financial and geo-strategic. Pakistan finds a way not to get totally left behind, on Indo-Pak matters by America, if Pakistan has some substance to its relationship with the US.

India’s potential is substantially and noticeable limited by its active borders; heck, even Myanmar bombed Indian territory a few months ago. Also, a stable relationship with Pakistan could help manage the water crisis in both nations.

India is seen as not “geo-politically stable” because of its borders. India needs globalization and Pakistan also needs globalization. There is a lot of Pakistani talent that can go into IT and the services economy the way India has done. Even if Pakistan does 10% of the business India does for a while, it will be a huge employment opportunity and a way to get Pakistan all the normalization opportunities with the US, via a vi what Indian talent gets to travel to the US, or do business with the US, or study in the US.

Pakistan also needs FDI, and to look stable, so it can attract FDI from the West, GCC, and China. if US and GCC interests are baked into a CARs corridors, any miscreants hiding out in Dubai or the west can be dealt with legally, and with a secure border with Iran, less capable of disrupting our development in Baluchistan. The West and the GCC could also help keep India more in check (not fully, but substantially more) from sponsoring these kinds of miscreants.

Pakaitan needs to find its niche in the global economy, before someone else captures that niche. Iran and Russia’s heightened pariah status may not last forever, but Pakistan needs to us it to build up itself, and especially Gwadar, and to have an economic model to be able to pay off its debts and make our economy something that is worthwhile when others consider us and not a pity and a vulnerability.

The following excerpt from a recent interview of Ian Bremmer in India is very insightful.

P.s. India has only a 20 year demographic dividend ahead of it. They at a total fertility rate of 2.0 so they have to develop now or never. Pakistan needs to be mindful of this and needs to exploit this moment to rise on the back of India’s interests for a stable region, and to keep pace with India, so it doesn’t have to submit to Indian hegemony.

2nd P.s. Pakistan needs to leverage its good relationship (and promise for SEZ investment by the Chinese) to integrate itself into Chinese supply chains in tech needed in the Middle East and Africa, especially made from mined minerals from Afghanistan and the CARs as well as inside Pakistan. EV Batteries, solar panels, rare earth processing, etc.

Making Pakistan attractive for manufacturing also depends on what other industries we have in our industrial parks, as well as the talent that is cross trained in these technologies. Chemical engineers drop some of these fields could also be employed in a pharmaceutical industry should Gwadar take off as a mining processing hub and its close proximity to the GCC make it a good place for oil storage and processing by Chinese or western firms.

Now, why wouldn’t China do all this itself. China can build all of this eco-system in a place like Gwadar, but also have the port open to western firms, and Pakistani IT talent to better adapt the product for nearby or even some global markets (with open access to western tech, restricted in China) also at a lower labor cost. India maybe hesitant to work with Chinese tech to this degree.

Gwadar can really be where East meets West and West meets East, and where we can find our Niche.
3rd P.S. bringing back PTI and IK could help get us back to some kind of “normal” in Pakistan. Currently the country seems frozen in decision making. No one wants to be seen to be making bold steps or have the money to back up bold reforms.

Signals to indicate IK can come back, with a national plan to implement what I have outlined above and in the previous post, should mean the general anxiety in the country will come down and real plans to raise the funds (higher taxes and more remittances) to set our fiscal house in order can be made.

Look at how Argentina is resetting itself. It made up the global hegemon, and is doing reforms. Btw, this is not to say we abandon our key interests or our principles like not recognizing Israel till there is a Palestinian state.

 

[EternalMortal]

Yes, I’m contradictory, if only because as @Joe Shearer points out, Pakistan is in no place to make an independent stance. Even the seemly more stable Muslim countries are trying to cut a deal with the global hegemon, the US, to serve their national interests.

What I’m saying is, to avoid being caught in the global contest, you have to satisfy both countries, but especially the US, the current global hegemon. A route to Central Asia is against the interests of Iran and Russia, but not necessarily China. Sure China loses some business, but it doesn’t threaten BRI. Iran and Russia on the other hand will lose influence and security from an American presence in the region, and because both Iran and Russia are allies of India to the detriment of Pakistan, screw em. (India is building up its military capabilities to a substantial extent on Russian tech, so slowing down Russia and helping China (our greatest military supplier) rise, economically, without agitating the US, should be our goal.)

Reaching the CARs through Pakistan is the only land route (the Caspian could be cut by the Russians or Iranians at any moment), and by getting the US on board with a CARs access project it could serve our interests of a stable relationship with Afghanistan (which also helps get them out of the global pariah status to some extent, which we can leverage) and builds a rail route to China for the cheapest costs to us, Free (Afghans have to foot the $5 billion bill for a trans-Afghan railway).

This is not a short terms utility. The US has spend 100 of billions of dollars against Russia and Iran in just the past decade, they want to find a path to their soft underbellies. None of the other Muslim nations are prioritizing Muslim countries over non-Muslim countries. Look at Iran’s behavior to us this year with their out of the blue strike. Besides, the Arabs won’t invest in Pakistan without some kind of utility Of Pakistan to the global economy. A corridor to the CARs is the only unique thing Pakistan can offer, and the opportunity for mining in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs for the GCC and the west.

Also, the US is looking for a way to bring Pakistan out from the China camp, to consider American interests as a matter of course and not transactionally, and this is one way to do that.

A stable Pakistan with an economy more integrated with US investments could also help ease the relationship between Pakistan and India, which fits US interests.

Again, not necessarily at China’s “expense”, but keeps Pakistan from having to cooperate more with China in ways that might be at America’s expense.

Considering how much the US is counting on India, a South Asia that trades more amongst itself, offers the potential for higher ROI for American investments in India, both financial and geo-strategic. Pakistan finds a way not to get totally left behind, on Indo-Pak matters by America, if Pakistan has some substance to its relationship with the US.

India’s potential is substantially and noticeable limited by its active borders; heck, even Myanmar bombed Indian territory a few months ago. Also, a stable relationship with Pakistan could help manage the water crisis in both nations.

India is seen as not “geo-politically stable” because of its borders. India needs globalization and Pakistan also needs globalization. There is a lot of Pakistani talent that can go into IT and the services economy the way India has done. Even if Pakistan does 10% of the business India does for a while, it will be a huge employment opportunity and a way to get Pakistan all the normalization opportunities with the US, via a vi what Indian talent gets to travel to the US, or do business with the US, or study in the US.

Pakistan also needs FDI, and to look stable, so it can attract FDI from the West, GCC, and China. if US and GCC interests are baked into a CARs corridors, any miscreants hiding out in Dubai or the west can be dealt with legally, and with a secure border with Iran, less capable of disrupting our development in Baluchistan. The West and the GCC could also help keep India more in check (not fully, but substantially more) from sponsoring these kinds of miscreants.

Pakaitan needs to find its niche in the global economy, before someone else captures that niche. Iran and Russia’s heightened pariah status may not last forever, but Pakistan needs to us it to build up itself, and especially Gwadar, and to have an economic model to be able to pay off its debts and make our economy something that is worthwhile when others consider us and not a pity and a vulnerability.

The following excerpt from a recent interview of Ian Bremmer in India is very insightful.

P.s. India has only a 20 year demographic dividend ahead of it. They at a total fertility rate of 2.0 so they have to develop now or never. Pakistan needs to be mindful of this and needs to exploit this moment to rise on the back of India’s interests for a stable region, and to keep pace with India, so it doesn’t have to submit to Indian hegemony.

2nd P.s. Pakistan needs to leverage its good relationship (and promise for SEZ investment by the Chinese) to integrate itself into Chinese supply chains in tech needed in the Middle East and Africa, especially made from mined minerals from Afghanistan and the CARs as well as inside Pakistan. EV Batteries, solar panels, rare earth processing, etc.

Making Pakistan attractive for manufacturing also depends on what other industries we have in our industrial parks, as well as the talent that is cross trained in these technologies. Chemical engineers drop some of these fields could also be employed in a pharmaceutical industry should Gwadar take off as a mining processing hub and its close proximity to the GCC make it a good place for oil storage and processing by Chinese or western firms.

Now, why wouldn’t China do all this itself. China can build all of this eco-system in a place like Gwadar, but also have the port open to western firms, and Pakistani IT talent to better adapt the product for nearby or even some global markets (with open access to western tech, restricted in China) also at a lower labor cost. India maybe hesitant to work with Chinese tech to this degree.

Gwadar can really be where East meets West and West meets East, and where we can find our Niche.
3rd P.S. bringing back PTI and IK could help get us back to some kind of “normal” in Pakistan. Currently the country seems frozen in decision making. No one wants to be seen to be making bold steps or have the money to back up bold reforms.

Signals to indicate IK can come back, with a national plan to implement what I have outlined above and in the previous post, should mean the general anxiety in the country will come down and real plans to raise the funds (higher taxes and more remittances) to set our fiscal house in order can be made.

Look at how Argentina is resetting itself. It made up the global hegemon, and is doing reforms. Btw, this is not to say we abandon our key interests or our principles like not recognizing Israel till there is a Palestinian state.

You can do all of that WITHOUT aligning with the US and positioning yourself as a temporary utility (Yes, this will be temporary as geopolitics changes) that depends heavily on factors outside of our own control. We should not position ourselves simply as a tool to gain access to another country. We have made this mistake before.

What happens if there's a regime change in Iran & a pro-American regime comes into power? What if Russians do regime change in CARs b/c they're getting too close to the USA. What if Chinese decide giving so much easy access to US does threaten their interests? What if CARs themselves decide to align heavily with Russia/China. etc, etc.

Instead of creating this natural resource land corridor (& that's all it will be since US doesn't need us for diplomacy) mainly for the US' benefit, Pakistan should create it to mainly benefit itself. Any benefits the US & anyone else does receive should be ancillary to our goals NOT the main goal unto itself.

By not aligning with the US you send a message to them & everyone else that their access is dependent on what they offer to us. In turn, we can pick & choose the deals that most benefit us instead of picking a side (a declining hegemon to boot) & then spending the next few decades further messing up the country trying to make sure that side wins, only to be thrown to the gutters again once the geopolitics changes.

I maintain that our focus should be creating an EU-like union by starting with an economic union. This "3rd path" provides us the benefits you mentioned & more. Plus it satisfies the average Pakistani's pan-Islamic leanings. It's a goal that the vast majority of our population can get behind as compared to aligning with the US & being seen as their "slave" yet again. What the state needs above everything else, even more than FDI, is to regain trust & popular support from its people. Continued internal instability due to lack of popular support for policies will lead to squandering any potential gains.

 

[FuturePAF]

You can do all of that WITHOUT aligning with the US and positioning yourself as a temporary utility (Yes, this will be temporary as geopolitics changes) that depends heavily on factors outside of our own control. We should not position ourselves simply as a tool to gain access to another country. We have made this mistake before.

What happens if there's a regime change in Iran & a pro-American regime comes into power? What if Russians do regime change in CARs b/c they're getting too close to the USA. What if Chinese decide giving so much easy access to US does threaten their interests? What if CARs themselves decide to align heavily with Russia/China. etc, etc.

Instead of creating this natural resource land corridor (& that's all it will be since US doesn't need us for diplomacy) mainly for the US' benefit, Pakistan should create it to mainly benefit itself. Any benefits the US & anyone else does receive should be ancillary to our goals NOT the main goal unto itself.

By not aligning with the US you send a message to them & everyone else that their access is dependent on what they offer to us. In turn, we can pick & choose the deals that most benefit us instead of picking a side (a declining hegemon to boot) & then spending the next few decades further messing up the country trying to make sure that side wins, only to be thrown to the gutters again once the geopolitics changes.

I maintain that our focus should be creating an EU-like union by starting with an economic union. This "3rd path" provides us the benefits you mentioned & more. Plus it satisfies the average Pakistani's pan-Islamic leanings. It's a goal that the vast majority of our population can get behind as compared to aligning with the US & being seen as their "slave" yet again. What the state needs above everything else, even more than FDI, is to regain trust & popular support from its people. Continued internal instability due to lack of popular support for policies will lead to squandering any potential gains.

A third path requires an elite that ascribe to that goal. It doesn’t seem our elite are willing to do the hard work that would require, so until their mindset or their position as our elite can be changed, we have to look at more realistic options.

What I line out, could indeed be temporary, but even if it is, it’s an opportunity to jump start eh economy and attract enough FDI (not loans) to grow out of our mess.

Any nation that trades with the US, has some kind of arrangement with them. The goal should be about giving up the least possible to get what we essentially need to do it on our own, like China did during its honeymoon period with the US from 1978 to 1989. In the case of Turkey, they build their economy on a level of accommodation with the west till they were large enough to be able to sustainably carry out enough of their national interests.

We also need to keep in mind, we need to catch up with India on a GDP per capita basis, in about a generation to two at the most, as we go to 400 million (or 20-25% the population of India) by 2050/2060. This is the only way we can fund our military to keep us outside of Indian hegemony.

We are so behind, it’s not impossible to catch up in that time frame, even with our higher birth rate, and in the process make Pakistan and attractive country to do business with other nations. We have to keep in mind the largest markets so sell to will stay the western markets, so keep good terms with essential to that high growth. Seeing our rapid growth, faster than that of the Indians (if we are keeping up with reaching the goal of per capita parity), will attract investment and opportunities on their own.

Even now, as China has become more assertive, the foreign firms still hang in there because China is still such a large market. We need to be a large market and be able to take advantage of access to large markets. This is not to mention the prenatal of sending more people into the diaspora to increase their skills and allowing them to come home to participate in growing the economy in a meritocratic basis. Many of the best jobs and training are available in the west.

 

[Signalian]

@hembo forgot to tag you here. You might enjoy last few pages of convo and tell us what you think. @Jbgt90tankguy as well when you are here next. From about page 11 onwards....earlier parts of thread too if it interests you.

I will be getting to more replies/discussion a bit later hopefully. Time has been limited on my end lately.

oye, tujhe mod kis ne bana diya hay hehehe. good to see you.

 

[Nilgiri]

Every country has an original sin, because the very act of creating a country out of many “nations” is an artificial process, or more aptly, a man made process.

Just as the Franks and before them the Celts lived on the land of modern day France, the modern French population is made up of different “French” peoples. The Breton of Brittany and the Occitan of Southern France may not have had common ethnic origins, but through the French kingdom/empire (starting with a unified kingdom under Charlemagne in the medieval period) and up to the French Republic, a nation was forged, and a common identity has coalesced. Btw, France is on its “fifth republic” if I remember correctly; a revision, if you were.

With life expectancy being an average 68 years and Pakistan being 77 years old, a certain amount of identity has hardened, especially since the lost of the eastern wing. It was only 80 years from the American victory at Yorktown in 1781 and the start of the American civil war in 1861.

It was after the civil war, when regional identifies could be slowly pushback to make way to a national identity over the subsequent 80 years.

Pakistan is due for a “Third Republic” period, considering what could be argued was the birth of the “Second Republic” since the fall of East Pakistan. Since then, territory has been mostly the same, these past 53 years, Urdu has become a more and more a Lingua Franca of a plurality of the population, if not as their first language, but certainly as many people’s second language, or third after English. Also, the effect of Zia and the decades of religion increased emphasis has defiantly elevated Islam to a greater consideration in the culture, despite how we actually live up to the principles it guides us to.

So while much has been forged, to really make people see themselves as Pakistani, a top down method of meritocracy and nation forming will have to be done, not unlike Singapore. Having people of different backgrounds live next to one another and policing people that act in a bigoted manner. Increased spending on education, and preventing people from asking about people’s backgrounds will have to be enforced. In short, money will have to be spend to raise up disenfranchised populations and ethnicities while having people travel to work in all parts of the country on a weighted meritocratic basis. Encouraging cross ethnic marriages is also a way to help spend this up, but that level of social engineering will face pushback, so it should be left alone. It may take a generation or two, but it’s the only way to really make lasting identity change. For this, PTI is best placed, due to its wide spread popularity, to enact these changes and not face as much push back from the majority of the population and a good chunk of the current stakeholders. Hopefully, this won’t take a physical revolution, but for cooler heads to see sense, for the sake of the greater good.

Sure nations coalesce over time. My point is why burden it with religion based statism. This was the precedent set in by objectives resolution. These are the final costs that have impacted with the next immediate precedent of Ayub strongman statism as well.

Top down meritocracy sounds fine on paper....but in reality this is a situation where the people at the table that matters dont want anyone new at the table disturbing their lavish meals.

The go out and essentially murder and gut other political forces of any challenge to them and broadcast their utility is merely the skin to then drape around them for nominal veneer purposes and to keep rest of the polity by that fear and coercion.

This is how no civilian govt has finished tenure.....there is no precedence of peaceful transfer of powers among civilian polity....not even that has been accomplished....the skin wearing perfectionism got in the way each time.

So why would the psyche of this be interested in self-induced top down meritocracy? China's vast size across both space and time meant the evidence of resistance to Mao even at the highest levels brought clear evidence of factionalism which can be analysed and debated even today (and how Mao clamped down on that in extreme way).... i.e the looming inevitability that would happen after Mao's death....by the raw pressure.

But it didn't happen in North Korea. The country was too small, insular table was codified into an extreme cultism for the long run....and its been allowed to fester in long duration of time. So what happened in China (and the virtuous cycles that have been permitted to grow to some degree under the larger non-virtuous overhang of extreme statism) is not guaranteed one.

Where does Pakistan lie in its unique case and context of it?....given the forces found in the larger Muslim world (that for example Turkish Republic from the get go severed through its Kemalist secularism) and as notably evidenced from what lingers with AFG at its proximity and context with Pakistan. These things are short circuited conflations in the end....they keep proper nationalism submerged to make way for concentrated power simply for those that have it to keep it in cushy fashion.

Meritocracy they know means unpredictability for them.

To me the pressure and induction can only come from Pakistani people being left to dry and rot as long as they have (as they are nowhere near closed off as the North Korean populace is).....and the disparities with world (built up by this power-freak insularity) coming to roost even more in the years to come. That is not going to be pretty, but its not guaranteed either as society can stockholm syndrome itself and compartmentalise and resign itself too and simply wait at great cost.

Sorry to sound pessimistic.

But even in hindsight were there has been decent deference to minimalism (regd the state) for a chance at genuine nation building past the original sin and scars, there have been major ongoing issues in the developed countries.....and histories to study and mistakes to learn from and apply so developing countries need not repeat them.

So where serious mistakes are being made from onset and I see a long term baking in....or where mistakes come in newer revised format and are trying to bake in.... these all have tremendous costs in the end, and no real guarantee of some sudden reform and rebound....simply by it being overdue.

Societies are strange, peculiar and unique in end, they are capable of taking monstrous abuse and squandering like a sponge.....as its often easy to pit society against itself once you are set into haunches of power (i.e readily usurped the concept of hierarchy and have little regard for social contract principles made pretty self-evident in a current time experience) and have easy bogeymen and strawmen you have placed still fooling enough people with sufficient fear or distraction to be content, submissive and silent with the pittance of whats in front of their nose and the hope they invest in their children to somehow get something better.

Even in such places the scars can remain a long time. Its a long subject with just US-Canada (starting out hostility, mid course+civil war, 20th century onwards) even with far far less theological divide for identitarianism. I told Joe elsewhere, Quebec would have split and rest of Canada split even more if its catholic based nationalism persevered past ww2 in strong fashion, that it was important for Quebec to have adopted secularisation for a chance of Canadian unity....this is a country as developed as Canada is.....and in the earlier era Canada was not a stranger to heavy conflict with the (newly formed USA) and the tensions that lasted all through the 19th century....that the British allocated major resource to develop infrastructure to deter. The great relations today were not some evergreen feature from earlier.

Its a very long topic.....and much of it got compacted timewise in the developing world post ww2 and decolonisation in their own ways, the subcontinent being no stranger.

i.e The importance of secular law for the state (taking the best principles from theology i.e concept of "self evident" core, natural rights imbued at individual level)....so that you can then get to the actual real meat of the matter on the further identity, economic and social pressures from within and outside the state (and thus its real and functional raison d'etre).

Not even going to talk about Europe on this....and its bloodletting and backfilling and gaslighting and shoulder shrugging on it that have its costs, as developed and wealthy as it is relative to world.

So I have grim outlook on countries this late in stage, with this much to have learned from already..... that burdened themselves with religion-infused statism from get go. Statism is clearly heavy enough (intrinsically and what rests socially in the nation to feed it) as it is without it.

Without understanding and sufficient accountability at the round table this long to then undo things and trust in things outside the round table.....how is a situation to change from the round table side of things? Its not impacting them and all tricks of the trade are known to perpetuate a status quo, final deterrence against the largest fear further enables this with both Pakistan and North Korea. Its heavily reliant on what is outside the round table, especially what has been set more properly (or inherited) there over course of time....and what they can bring to bear pressure wise. Pakistan's case is its own distillation in the end of this stuff, and I am only cautiously optimistic in the very long term.....there is heavy pessimism for the short and mid term and most of the long term as sufficient things are set into play with power inertias and populations being resigned to it.

 

[Nilgiri]

Where does Pakistan lie in its unique case and context of it?....given the forces found in the larger Muslim world (that for example Turkish Republic from the get go severed through its Kemalist secularism) and as notably evidenced from what lingers with AFG at its proximity and context with Pakistan. These things are short circuited conflations in the end....they keep proper nationalism submerged to make way for concentrated power simply for those that have it to keep it in cushy fashion.

If you want to continue your debate here @SecularNationalist @Baadil , this thread is another option for it....along with any other posts you see here you would like to comment on.

 

[nibba]

Yes, I’m contradictory, if only because as @Joe Shearer points out, Pakistan is in no place to make an independent stance. Even the seemly more stable Muslim countries are trying to cut a deal with the global hegemon, the US, to serve their national interests.

What I’m saying is, to avoid being caught in the global contest, you have to satisfy both countries, but especially the US, the current global hegemon. A route to Central Asia is against the interests of Iran and Russia, but not necessarily China. Sure China loses some business, but it doesn’t threaten BRI. Iran and Russia on the other hand will lose influence and security from an American presence in the region, and because both Iran and Russia are allies of India to the detriment of Pakistan, screw em. (India is building up its military capabilities to a substantial extent on Russian tech, so slowing down Russia and helping China (our greatest military supplier) rise, economically, without agitating the US, should be our goal.)

Reaching the CARs through Pakistan is the only land route (the Caspian could be cut by the Russians or Iranians at any moment), and by getting the US on board with a CARs access project it could serve our interests of a stable relationship with Afghanistan (which also helps get them out of the global pariah status to some extent, which we can leverage) and builds a rail route to China for the cheapest costs to us, Free (Afghans have to foot the $5 billion bill for a trans-Afghan railway).

This is not a short terms utility. The US has spend 100 of billions of dollars against Russia and Iran in just the past decade, they want to find a path to their soft underbellies. None of the other Muslim nations are prioritizing Muslim countries over non-Muslim countries. Look at Iran’s behavior to us this year with their out of the blue strike. Besides, the Arabs won’t invest in Pakistan without some kind of utility Of Pakistan to the global economy. A corridor to the CARs is the only unique thing Pakistan can offer, and the opportunity for mining in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs for the GCC and the west.

Also, the US is looking for a way to bring Pakistan out from the China camp, to consider American interests as a matter of course and not transactionally, and this is one way to do that.

A stable Pakistan with an economy more integrated with US investments could also help ease the relationship between Pakistan and India, which fits US interests.

Again, not necessarily at China’s “expense”, but keeps Pakistan from having to cooperate more with China in ways that might be at America’s expense.

Considering how much the US is counting on India, a South Asia that trades more amongst itself, offers the potential for higher ROI for American investments in India, both financial and geo-strategic. Pakistan finds a way not to get totally left behind, on Indo-Pak matters by America, if Pakistan has some substance to its relationship with the US.

India’s potential is substantially and noticeable limited by its active borders; heck, even Myanmar bombed Indian territory a few months ago. Also, a stable relationship with Pakistan could help manage the water crisis in both nations.

India is seen as not “geo-politically stable” because of its borders. India needs globalization and Pakistan also needs globalization. There is a lot of Pakistani talent that can go into IT and the services economy the way India has done. Even if Pakistan does 10% of the business India does for a while, it will be a huge employment opportunity and a way to get Pakistan all the normalization opportunities with the US, via a vi what Indian talent gets to travel to the US, or do business with the US, or study in the US.

Pakistan also needs FDI, and to look stable, so it can attract FDI from the West, GCC, and China. if US and GCC interests are baked into a CARs corridors, any miscreants hiding out in Dubai or the west can be dealt with legally, and with a secure border with Iran, less capable of disrupting our development in Baluchistan. The West and the GCC could also help keep India more in check (not fully, but substantially more) from sponsoring these kinds of miscreants.

Pakaitan needs to find its niche in the global economy, before someone else captures that niche. Iran and Russia’s heightened pariah status may not last forever, but Pakistan needs to us it to build up itself, and especially Gwadar, and to have an economic model to be able to pay off its debts and make our economy something that is worthwhile when others consider us and not a pity and a vulnerability.

The following excerpt from a recent interview of Ian Bremmer in India is very insightful.

P.s. India has only a 20 year demographic dividend ahead of it. They at a total fertility rate of 2.0 so they have to develop now or never. Pakistan needs to be mindful of this and needs to exploit this moment to rise on the back of India’s interests for a stable region, and to keep pace with India, so it doesn’t have to submit to Indian hegemony.

2nd P.s. Pakistan needs to leverage its good relationship (and promise for SEZ investment by the Chinese) to integrate itself into Chinese supply chains in tech needed in the Middle East and Africa, especially made from mined minerals from Afghanistan and the CARs as well as inside Pakistan. EV Batteries, solar panels, rare earth processing, etc.

Making Pakistan attractive for manufacturing also depends on what other industries we have in our industrial parks, as well as the talent that is cross trained in these technologies. Chemical engineers drop some of these fields could also be employed in a pharmaceutical industry should Gwadar take off as a mining processing hub and its close proximity to the GCC make it a good place for oil storage and processing by Chinese or western firms.

Now, why wouldn’t China do all this itself. China can build all of this eco-system in a place like Gwadar, but also have the port open to western firms, and Pakistani IT talent to better adapt the product for nearby or even some global markets (with open access to western tech, restricted in China) also at a lower labor cost. India maybe hesitant to work with Chinese tech to this degree.

Gwadar can really be where East meets West and West meets East, and where we can find our Niche.
3rd P.S. bringing back PTI and IK could help get us back to some kind of “normal” in Pakistan. Currently the country seems frozen in decision making. No one wants to be seen to be making bold steps or have the money to back up bold reforms.

Signals to indicate IK can come back, with a national plan to implement what I have outlined above and in the previous post, should mean the general anxiety in the country will come down and real plans to raise the funds (higher taxes and more remittances) to set our fiscal house in order can be made.

Look at how Argentina is resetting itself. It made up the global hegemon, and is doing reforms. Btw, this is not to say we abandon our key interests or our principles like not recognizing Israel till there is a Palestinian state.

So the plan is to use infrastructure china financed with tens of billions of dollars of loans that they have to roll over every time they come due to give the US a corridor into central asia.

This is not against chinese interests because it "doesnt threaten the BRI".

Iran and Russia's security will be negatively affected by american presence but the chinese will welcome american presence on their western flank. Brought there by the projects they financed.

Interesting take.

 

[Nilgiri]

Yes, I’m contradictory, if only because as @Joe Shearer points out, Pakistan is in no place to make an independent stance. Even the seemly more stable Muslim countries are trying to cut a deal with the global hegemon, the US, to serve their national interests.

What I’m saying is, to avoid being caught in the global contest, you have to satisfy both countries, but especially the US, the current global hegemon. A route to Central Asia is against the interests of Iran and Russia, but not necessarily China. Sure China loses some business, but it doesn’t threaten BRI. Iran and Russia on the other hand will lose influence and security from an American presence in the region, and because both Iran and Russia are allies of India to the detriment of Pakistan, screw em. (India is building up its military capabilities to a substantial extent on Russian tech, so slowing down Russia and helping China (our greatest military supplier) rise, economically, without agitating the US, should be our goal.)

Reaching the CARs through Pakistan is the only land route (the Caspian could be cut by the Russians or Iranians at any moment), and by getting the US on board with a CARs access project it could serve our interests of a stable relationship with Afghanistan (which also helps get them out of the global pariah status to some extent, which we can leverage) and builds a rail route to China for the cheapest costs to us, Free (Afghans have to foot the $5 billion bill for a trans-Afghan railway).

This is not a short terms utility. The US has spend 100 of billions of dollars against Russia and Iran in just the past decade, they want to find a path to their soft underbellies. None of the other Muslim nations are prioritizing Muslim countries over non-Muslim countries. Look at Iran’s behavior to us this year with their out of the blue strike. Besides, the Arabs won’t invest in Pakistan without some kind of utility Of Pakistan to the global economy. A corridor to the CARs is the only unique thing Pakistan can offer, and the opportunity for mining in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs for the GCC and the west.

Also, the US is looking for a way to bring Pakistan out from the China camp, to consider American interests as a matter of course and not transactionally, and this is one way to do that.

A stable Pakistan with an economy more integrated with US investments could also help ease the relationship between Pakistan and India, which fits US interests.

Again, not necessarily at China’s “expense”, but keeps Pakistan from having to cooperate more with China in ways that might be at America’s expense.

Considering how much the US is counting on India, a South Asia that trades more amongst itself, offers the potential for higher ROI for American investments in India, both financial and geo-strategic. Pakistan finds a way not to get totally left behind, on Indo-Pak matters by America, if Pakistan has some substance to its relationship with the US.

India’s potential is substantially and noticeable limited by its active borders; heck, even Myanmar bombed Indian territory a few months ago. Also, a stable relationship with Pakistan could help manage the water crisis in both nations.

India is seen as not “geo-politically stable” because of its borders. India needs globalization and Pakistan also needs globalization. There is a lot of Pakistani talent that can go into IT and the services economy the way India has done. Even if Pakistan does 10% of the business India does for a while, it will be a huge employment opportunity and a way to get Pakistan all the normalization opportunities with the US, via a vi what Indian talent gets to travel to the US, or do business with the US, or study in the US.

Pakistan also needs FDI, and to look stable, so it can attract FDI from the West, GCC, and China. if US and GCC interests are baked into a CARs corridors, any miscreants hiding out in Dubai or the west can be dealt with legally, and with a secure border with Iran, less capable of disrupting our development in Baluchistan. The West and the GCC could also help keep India more in check (not fully, but substantially more) from sponsoring these kinds of miscreants.

Pakaitan needs to find its niche in the global economy, before someone else captures that niche. Iran and Russia’s heightened pariah status may not last forever, but Pakistan needs to us it to build up itself, and especially Gwadar, and to have an economic model to be able to pay off its debts and make our economy something that is worthwhile when others consider us and not a pity and a vulnerability.

The following excerpt from a recent interview of Ian Bremmer in India is very insightful.

P.s. India has only a 20 year demographic dividend ahead of it. They at a total fertility rate of 2.0 so they have to develop now or never. Pakistan needs to be mindful of this and needs to exploit this moment to rise on the back of India’s interests for a stable region, and to keep pace with India, so it doesn’t have to submit to Indian hegemony.

2nd P.s. Pakistan needs to leverage its good relationship (and promise for SEZ investment by the Chinese) to integrate itself into Chinese supply chains in tech needed in the Middle East and Africa, especially made from mined minerals from Afghanistan and the CARs as well as inside Pakistan. EV Batteries, solar panels, rare earth processing, etc.

Making Pakistan attractive for manufacturing also depends on what other industries we have in our industrial parks, as well as the talent that is cross trained in these technologies. Chemical engineers drop some of these fields could also be employed in a pharmaceutical industry should Gwadar take off as a mining processing hub and its close proximity to the GCC make it a good place for oil storage and processing by Chinese or western firms.

Now, why wouldn’t China do all this itself. China can build all of this eco-system in a place like Gwadar, but also have the port open to western firms, and Pakistani IT talent to better adapt the product for nearby or even some global markets (with open access to western tech, restricted in China) also at a lower labor cost. India maybe hesitant to work with Chinese tech to this degree.

Gwadar can really be where East meets West and West meets East, and where we can find our Niche.
3rd P.S. bringing back PTI and IK could help get us back to some kind of “normal” in Pakistan. Currently the country seems frozen in decision making. No one wants to be seen to be making bold steps or have the money to back up bold reforms.

Signals to indicate IK can come back, with a national plan to implement what I have outlined above and in the previous post, should mean the general anxiety in the country will come down and real plans to raise the funds (higher taxes and more remittances) to set our fiscal house in order can be made.

Look at how Argentina is resetting itself. It made up the global hegemon, and is doing reforms. Btw, this is not to say we abandon our key interests or our principles like not recognizing Israel till there is a Palestinian state.

It all sounds tic tac toe on paper. But again, why couldn't it be done earlier?

The issue always in the end is the heavy distrust the highest echelon has with other echelons around it in even the intelligentsia....and what has atrophied by this at this late stage.

Then you study the intelligentsia of Pakistan in 20th century and you see the reasons why. This is why you need minimalist statism from the get go. Otherwise you have diverse platter of things to wield power and coercion on where its totally counterproductive.....and slim pickings for where its productive. This is just within the intelligentsia/elite.....this transfers to bigger picture population and they remain totally unorganised and easily preyed upon.

 

[nibba]

I think a lot of pakistani hopes and dreams about gwadar would be more realistic if they viewed a map pre chinese annexation of tibet. You don't really border china you border a desolate plateau.

Gwadar serves no market, no solar panels or oil or any of that stuff will ever make economic sense to go through gwadar. Unless there is a security situation which threatens chinese shipping. Gwadar is strategic insurance for china that the pakistani tax payer foots the bill for (as much as they can) while it sits empty waiting for a war.

In that sense it does honestly make sense for pakistan to use the port in any way it can even if it is against chinese strategic interests. Although im not really sold on this bonanza from connecting the the CARs. They arent very big consumer markets and already have established markets for their resource exports.

 

[FuturePAF]

Sure nations coalesce over time. My point is why burden it with religion based statism. This was the precedent set in by objectives resolution. These are the final costs that have impacted with the next immediate precedent of Ayub strongman statism as well.

Top down meritocracy sounds fine on paper....but in reality this is a situation where the people at the table that matters dont want anyone new at the table disturbing their lavish meals.

The go out and essentially murder and gut other political forces of any challenge to them and broadcast their utility is merely the skin to then drape around them for nominal veneer purposes and to keep rest of the polity by that fear and coercion.

This is how no civilian govt has finished tenure.....there is no precedence of peaceful transfer of powers among civilian polity....not even that has been accomplished....the skin wearing perfectionism got in the way each time.

So why would the psyche of this be interested in self-induced top down meritocracy? China's vast size across both space and time meant the evidence of resistance to Mao even at the highest levels brought clear evidence of factionalism which can be analysed and debated even today (and how Mao clamped down on that in extreme way).... i.e the looming inevitability that would happen after Mao's death....by the raw pressure.

But it didn't happen in North Korea. The country was too small, insular table was codified into an extreme cultism for the long run....and its been allowed to fester in long duration of time. So what happened in China (and the virtuous cycles that have been permitted to grow to some degree under the larger non-virtuous overhang of extreme statism) is not guaranteed one.

Where does Pakistan lie in its unique case and context of it?....given the forces found in the larger Muslim world (that for example Turkish Republic from the get go severed through its Kemalist secularism) and as notably evidenced from what lingers with AFG at its proximity and context with Pakistan. These things are short circuited conflations in the end....they keep proper nationalism submerged to make way for concentrated power simply for those that have it to keep it in cushy fashion.

Meritocracy they know means unpredictability for them.

To me the pressure and induction can only come from Pakistani people being left to dry and rot as long as they have (as they are nowhere near closed off as the North Korean populace is).....and the disparities with world (built up by this power-freak insularity) coming to roost even more in the years to come. That is not going to be pretty, but its not guaranteed either as society can stockholm syndrome itself and compartmentalise and resign itself too and simply wait at great cost.

Sorry to sound pessimistic.

But even in hindsight were there has been decent deference to minimalism (regd the state) for a chance at genuine nation building past the original sin and scars, there have been major ongoing issues in the developed countries.....and histories to study and mistakes to learn from and apply so developing countries need not repeat them.

So where serious mistakes are being made from onset and I see a long term baking in....or where mistakes come in newer revised format and are trying to bake in.... these all have tremendous costs in the end, and no real guarantee of some sudden reform and rebound....simply by it being overdue.

Societies are strange, peculiar and unique in end, they are capable of taking monstrous abuse and squandering like a sponge.....as its often easy to pit society against itself once you are set into haunches of power (i.e readily usurped the concept of hierarchy and have little regard for social contract principles made pretty self-evident in a current time experience) and have easy bogeymen and strawmen you have placed still fooling enough people with sufficient fear or distraction to be content, submissive and silent with the pittance of whats in front of their nose and the hope they invest in their children to somehow get something better.

Even in such places the scars can remain a long time. Its a long subject with just US-Canada (starting out hostility, mid course+civil war, 20th century onwards) even with far far less theological divide for identitarianism. I told Joe elsewhere, Quebec would have split and rest of Canada split even more if its catholic based nationalism persevered past ww2 in strong fashion, that it was important for Quebec to have adopted secularisation for a chance of Canadian unity....this is a country as developed as Canada is.....and in the earlier era Canada was not a stranger to heavy conflict with the (newly formed USA) and the tensions that lasted all through the 19th century....that the British allocated major resource to develop infrastructure to deter. The great relations today were not some evergreen feature from earlier.

Its a very long topic.....and much of it got compacted timewise in the developing world post ww2 and decolonisation in their own ways, the subcontinent being no stranger.

i.e The importance of secular law for the state (taking the best principles from theology i.e concept of "self evident" core, natural rights imbued at individual level)....so that you can then get to the actual real meat of the matter on the further identity, economic and social pressures from within and outside the state (and thus its real and functional raison d'etre).

Not even going to talk about Europe on this....and its bloodletting and backfilling and gaslighting and shoulder shrugging on it that have its costs, as developed and wealthy as it is relative to world.

So I have grim outlook on countries this late in stage, with this much to have learned from already..... that burdened themselves with religion-infused statism from get go. Statism is clearly heavy enough (intrinsically and what rests socially in the nation to feed it) as it is without it.

Without understanding and sufficient accountability at the round table this long to then undo things and trust in things outside the round table.....how is a situation to change from the round table side of things? Its not impacting them and all tricks of the trade are known to perpetuate a status quo, final deterrence against the largest fear further enables this with both Pakistan and North Korea. Its heavily reliant on what is outside the round table, especially what has been set more properly (or inherited) there over course of time....and what they can bring to bear pressure wise. Pakistan's case is its own distillation in the end of this stuff, and I am only cautiously optimistic in the very long term.....there is heavy pessimism for the short and mid term and most of the long term as sufficient things are set into play with power inertias and populations being resigned to it.

Religion is brought in, to be the moral basis for the nation, but also as a way to judge people on their merits, as equals. As our founding father, a lawyer, had hoped. Individual liberty not carried out doesn’t mean it wasn’t the original intent. Had he lived as long as Nehru, perhaps we could have lived to seen his vision play out.

Religion can be used dogmatically to reinforce the power elite, as in Latin American countries and how the Catholic Church was used by the elite. Or it can be small community churches, as in America where it is an extension of each person and each community’s liberty.

I suspect, Jinnah had hoped Pakistan could become similar to how Tocqueville described America. America is great because it is good. Liberty and religion are intertwined, where the lay person sees religion as a way of being properly American, in the Protestant tradition. I suspect, Jinnah had hoped, being a properly religious Pakistani, would mean be a pathway to being a good citizen.

Could it have been done without religion. I suspect not. To tie together the disparate chords of Pakistan, could only be done with religion, or as we consider Islam, a deen or way of life, a culture.

To bring about a regeneration, back to this original vision, could only be a matter of the decision of a benevolent dictatorship, not unlike the East Asian tigers.unlike North Korea, which is a culture to serve the Kim family, a benevolent society, services its members in a mutually benevolent manner.

 

[FuturePAF]

So the plan is to use infrastructure china financed with tens of billions of dollars of loans that they have to roll over every time they come due to give the US a corridor into central asia.

This is not against chinese interests because it "doesnt threaten the BRI".

Iran and Russia's security will be negatively affected by american presence but the chinese will welcome american presence on their western flank. Brought there by the projects they financed.

Interesting take.

American presence could mean American business but not American troops. All embassies, of every nation, are already spy bases, so that might grow. But the CARs will be a long term and modest backwater. For China, as long as there is trade using its infrastructure, than those nations can develop and better absorb Chinese goods. No sense having poor counties border you.

There is competition, but improving the business eco-system and having smaller share of a rapidly growing pie is still better in the long run, as the us and Chinese competition in Africa is creating.

Making the CARs more prosperous and internationally connected make them a sustainably growing market on china’s border. Where Russia and Iran can’t keep up, Chinese and American industry can fill the gap, and Pakistan can tag along for the ride.

 

[nibba]

American presence could mean American business but not American troops. All embassies, of every nation, are already spy bases, so that might grow. But the CARs will be a long term and modest backwater. For China, as long as there is trade using its infrastructure, than those nations can develop and better absorb Chinese goods. No sense having poor counties border you.

There is competition, but improving the business eco-system and having smaller share of a rapidly growing pie is still better in the long run, as the us and Chinese competition in Africa is creating.

Making the CARs more prosperous and internationally connected make them a sustainably growing market on china’s border. Where Russia and Iran can’t keep up, Chinese and American industry can fill the gap, and Pakistan can tag along for the ride.

Which american business/industry are you envisioning here?

Like big mining multinationals? Thats not really american industry. Modern american state owned companies (in all but name) are big tech/big finance.

I think you are vastly over estimating the economic importance of the CAR. Especially to america. Its a tiny consumer market, its far away and their comodities will never reach the states when they have so many sources closer to home in much more secure/neutral (from an america perspective) neighbourhoods.

The commodities reaching a global market may lower prices for consumers but I don't see america sinking capital so close to china and russia. If BHP or barrick or Rio want to sink private capital, thats different. (but they can do that now and they arent).

If they are interested its for strategic reasons.

China-american ties are on a irreversible trajectory imo. There isn't really a way to walk this back. You will have to pick sides.

I dont think its like fence sitting between russia and usa.