The Munir Doctrine

[FuturePAF]

This sounds like reading about a communist country. Maybe CPP (communist party of Pak) and each Chairman with have their personal doctrine for 3 years ( 6 or more with extensions).
People liked Trump. "He says it like it is". We should too?

The policy making class in most countries are made up of people that are smart enough to graduate from their countries most elite management schools, such as Harvard, the. Go working their way up the national security establishment of their nations.

This kinds of people seem to have been sidelined in Pakistan.

In Pakistan, if we had taken the most brilliant minds of the past 30 years of Lums or other such schools and empowered them to help set policy, we could have seen a more nuanced foreign policy that protected the nation from dramatic swings in policy prescriptions every 3-6 years.

 

[newb3e]

people are actually discussing Munis doctrine after every bhai sabhs from ayub to zia to musharaf to bajwa to now Hafiz every general has failed this one wont be any different!

 

[FuturePAF]

IK changed finance ministers repeatedly. No minister could stay more than a few months. Even if Atif Mian came back to serve as finance minster, he would resign withn a month. Imran Khan is not a good leader, he does not have leadership qualities. He is too narcisstic, arrogant, rude and believes he is an expert on every subject.

SMQ is not diplomatic. He gets angry and makes irresponible statements on a regular basis. Pakistanis consider him an expert in foriegn relations because he speaks decent English, same as Hina Rabbani Khar. If you want to see a good foriegn minsiter see India's Jaishankar.

We have to start somewhere. That start has to be optics. The optics of a democracy, whose reforms the public can bear to endure. The people need to buy into the national project, and oriented towards development. Underneath these politicians has to be a class of technocrats and institutional bureaucrats, that can carry out reforms, are empowered by those amongst the elite that will protect them from the rest of the elites.

SMQ and IK could reign in their comments if the nation was allowed to serious about change. 5 years from now they could retire into the sunset with dignity and a democratic reset could also have been implemented, one where all former PMs retire or only accept to become President if elected.

 

[FuturePAF]

whether this is the real "doctrine" or not; one thing is certain; articles like this only a couple of pages long give a general plan and aspirations that any 8th grader can write . There are absolutely no specifics here. Not impressed with this 'writer'.

It does indeed look like an aspiration document, no specifics. Without a strong and growing economy, the options are limited until something geopolitical changes.

 

[FuturePAF]

people are actually discussing Munis doctrine after every bhai sabhs from ayub to zia to musharaf to bajwa to now Hafiz every general has failed this one wont be any different!

Discussion as much as is possible. All roads comeback to a good economy which requires a stable democratic government that will bring investors. The point is to show there are no other options then deep internal reforms. The world won’t invest if our own people won’t invest in the country.

 

[HAIDER]

All of it basically the Ayub Plan, or what South Korea did in the 60s and 70s, including being a bulwark against the Russians. When referring to block politics, the general indicates he thinks the two current blocks of the US and China. So that leaves open being in a Coalition to contain Russia and Iran but not at the expense of China. That could get some western and GCC money coming in.

No matter who decides Pakistan’s strategic policy, it doesn’t get a stable economy to give it the room to implement.

South Korea had marshal plan to uplift the whole nation and they did very successfully. Every soldier become teacher and utilize military to eradicate illiteracy. That is General with the vision where his focus was nation not the department.
But here we protect others interest. It common saying in Rawalpindi, we have demands from UAE, Saudi, American, Qataris , all they have own agenda in Pakistan. And they all reach out to COAS instead of democratically " elected" leader/PM of Pakistan.

 

[nahtanbob]

Pakistan can’t allow China to take Gwadar because Pak-US relations require Gwadar not become a “Chinese naval base”.

Sure Pakistan is unable to pay under its current circumstances, which is why it will have to break from its business as usual mindset and loosen its grip to allow reforms (new investors and the end of elite capture, the way Manmohan Singh did in 1991 India).

What does Pakistan have to do exactly ?

Manmohan Singh got rid of the infamous license raj in India where you needed a government license for every business decision.

 

[FuturePAF]

What does Pakistan have to do exactly ?

Manmohan Singh got rid of the infamous license raj in India where you needed a government license for every business decision.

Break the monopolies in nearly all industries so investors have a competitive landscape in which to invest. Couple this with increasing property taxes on commercial land and agricultural land above a certain size, so non-productive and domestic consumption business are disincentized, while export earning ventures are incentivized and can generate greater tax revenue as well. Couple this with tax revenue used to raise the funds to buy out investors in power projects or whatever other method can be used to effectively bring electricity costs to be competitive with India. Use the tax revenue to build out key infrastructure that would help exporters maximize yields, and continue CPEC to speed up building out the railways in Pakistan (ML-1, extension from Karachi to Gwadar and Gwadar to Reko-Diq) to make cost of doing business cheaper. Also use tax revenue to uplift areas most undeveloped and restive, to the national average, to get people in areas of Baluchistan and KPK to buy into new and legal opportunities.

It’s not just one thing, but a few key things.

See these things take effect, with an export oriented economy taking shape, Pakistani investors could be drawn to business prospects, and thereafter foreign investors. But only if there is a stable and democratic government, with rule of law, especially contract law, where ease of business will a priority and civil liberties will make it worthwhile for top talent to come to Pakistan, such as professors in universities. This would mean a need to shift the national culture into the inclusive one originally espoused under Jinnah, being out the latent soft power industries of tourism, educational training, cultural exports.

Chinese private investors alone have Trillions of dollars in the bank and look for places where they can get the most ROI. Opening up some projects to Chinese investors (as investments not sovereign guaranteed loans). About 3-5% of GDP in FDI per year is all the country needs on top of these reforms to jump start development and grow at over 10% year on year for decades to come, considering how much Pakistan has to catch up with India. The Gwadar SEZ maybe where Chinese investors probably feel the safest. Big projects in petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals could make a lot of sense with economies of scale, but also smaller projects like livestock, organic food stuffs like Milk and Eggs for the GCC market, batteries and solar panels for the global market with the copper and lithium mines just a few hundred km north and connected by rail.

Catching up with India, Pakistani firms digitize in a similar manner as India, increasing productivity and growth in a similar manner, only faster, as If India has already shown the dos and dont’s of how to do it.

Chinese savers stashed away $2.6 trillion last year but property crash will cool ‘revenge spending’ | CNN Business

Even for a famously frugal nation, Chinese people saved a lot last year. Stuck at home due to Covid restrictions, they socked away a record $2.6 trillion.

amp.cnn.com

 

[nahtanbob]

Break the monopolies in nearly all industries so investors have a competitive landscape in which to invest. Couple this with increasing property taxes on commercial land and agricultural land above a certain size, so non-productive and domestic consumption business are disincentized, while export earning ventures are incentivized and can generate greater tax revenue as well. Coup

Name the monopolies that you intend to break

 

[newb3e]

Discussion as much as is possible. All roads comeback to a good economy which requires a stable democratic government that will bring investors. The point is to show there are no other options then deep internal reforms. The world won’t invest if our own people won’t invest in the country.

not in case of Asim or his predecessors "doctrine" they rely on wars to bring investors which dont benefit people just few elites!

 

[Zapakar]

Reads more like a ponzi scheme for elites.

 

[FuturePAF]

Name the monopolies that you intend to break

Basically every major industry, but primarily those that could be export oriented or feed into export products.
In the following video at 17:48 “Foreigners are complaining to the army chief, that we want to invest but you are not letting us come. You (your country) put too many hurdles in the way.”

We all sound like a broken record, because all the macroeconomic changes now seem obvious.

Btw, the following video is from my city, Multan, in the heart of agricultural region of the country. IMHO, even if we have to borrow the $15-18 Billion today, we need to modernize our railway from Peshawar to Karachi and extend to Gwadar and then Reko-Diq. Along the railways we can build “dry ports”, cold food storage and other warehouse infrastructure to get products to market ASAP and as cheaply as possible, similar to the Indian Dedicated freight railways. Once we have this, most of the country, where most of the labor pool lives, can work at a more competitive price point with other global producers in a number of industries.

There are many honestly trying to do right under the circumstances, but there are many people who don’t have the right motivations to maximize growth:

Btw, for India, a Pakistan that is busy building its economy and making sure to be able to pay off its debts won’t be as motivated to have anything disrupt it, so a change to focusing on economics will have a net benefit for India, in terms of security and economics.

 

[nahtanbob]

Basically every major industry, but primarily those that could be export oriented or feed into export products.
In the following video at 17:48 “Foreigners are complaining to the army chief, that we want to invest but you are not letting us come. You (your country) put too many hurdles in the way.”

We all sound like a broken record, because all the macroeconomic changes now seem obvious.

Btw, the following video is from my city, Multan, in the heart of agricultural region of the country. IMHO, even if we have to borrow the $15-18 Billion today, we need to modernize our railway from Peshawar to Karachi and extend to Gwadar and then Reko-Diq. Along the railways we can build “dry ports”, cold food storage and other warehouse infrastructure to get products to market ASAP and as cheaply as possible, similar to the Indian Dedicated freight railways. Once we have this, most of the country, where most of the labor pool lives, can work at a more competitive price point with other global producers in a number of industries.

There are many honestly trying to do right under the circumstances, but there are many people who don’t have the right motivations to maximize growth:

Btw, for India, a Pakistan that is busy building its economy and making sure to be able to pay off its debts won’t be as motivated to have anything disrupt it, so a change to focusing on economics will have a net benefit for India, in terms of security and economics.

Tell me which industry is a monopoly in Pakistan. You tell me every sector. Pakistan has a mfg output of 40-50 billion. 50% of it is textiles. You might be complaining about something that is a non-issue. The real issue may be poorly run or no domestic run companies. Take automobile for example. You are restricted to 3 Japanese players because of FOREX losses. You can invite more players. you will have more FOREX losses. It is not something you want in the short term

 

[Oscar]

Tell me which industry is a monopoly in Pakistan. You tell me every sector. Pakistan has a mfg output of 40-50 billion. 50% of it is textiles. You might be complaining about something that is a non-issue. The real issue may be poorly run or no domestic run companies. Take automobile for example. You are restricted to 3 Japanese players because of FOREX losses. You can invite more players. you will have more FOREX losses. It is not something you want in the short term

It’s not a monopoly - its an Oligopoly.

There are incumbent business families that want control over any business that falls in their industry. There is the military inc. that vies for control over these major industries as well which leaves your SMBs either working on trade or smaller niches. In ALL of this are criminal enterprises linked with Major political parties especially in Industrial hubs like Karachi which require both protection funds and also profit sharing directly to the party members in lieu.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t space to create business in Pakistan but there is a limit to where you can grow until the sharks notice you and while this is true for MANY major markets elsewhere, there are laws able to protect businesses which in Pakistan are worth no more than the ink they occupy on some government record,

The only outlier is the gig economy that has propped up which is infuriating to many of these people because they want a chunk of it too but the nature of payments and transactions means they are currently not able to dip in. As the software industry grows, it is immediately hit by the criminal enterprise and then it either had the option to move to a Middle Eastern country for better infrastructure and security or it colludes with some security player for protection in lieu of profit sharing.

Let me give you an example - A new rice farm and factor was set up a few years ago in Sindh - a lot of investment was poured in - good leader but as the construction began they were immediately given the threats from competitors and associated politicos including former el presidente. However, after advice from relatives it was decided to get security by first opening a Petrol station close to the factory and basically giving it to the “agency” and in return the safety of the factory is guaranteed.. including connections provided that allowed hiring of former military men for security.

So while it is an expensive investment, it guarantees security along with the added fun of being given a full military salute(foot stomping and all) whenever one visits the factory with the owner.

 

[Goenitz]

Gen Ayub Khan’s legacy sprouts again: The four pillars of Gen Asim Munir’s New Green Revolution​

Gen Ayub Khan’s legacy sprouts again: The four pillars of Gen Asim Munir’s New Green Revolution

In 1960, our wheat production stood at 3.35 million tonnes. The advent of Ayub Khan’s Green Revolution marked a transformative era. By 1982, our wheat output quadrupled, reaching an impressive...

www.thenews.com.pk

Fittay mun.
So, since then we couldn't achieve anything. What it is? 50+ years?