The Munir Doctrine

[RazPaK]

Munir doctrine?

lol

US is the boss. These guys are all just useful idiots.

 

[FuturePAF]

Munir doctrine?

lol

US is the boss. These guys are all just useful idiots.

They are trying everything to find ways to bring in money without carrying out reforms that would in all likelihood alienate the local financial elite. Basically it’s stalling in hopes of a new crisis will emerge (such as the state of the nation in the 90s between the Cold War and GWOT) and allow Pakistan to become a new frontline state. Perhaps it will be a contain Russia and Iran strategy of the West, which may work to some extent. Although with less and less efficacy, as the expectations and needs of a large population keep growing and the country falls further behind, on a per capita basis, to India.

A strong, stable, and export based economy is the only long term strategy to prevent falling under Indian Hegemony, which is suppose to be their primary (sole?) responsibility.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

The Pak Deep State's policy is simple: be the first in queue when food is served, but the last in queue when fighting starts....

On a serious note, the Pak Deep State appears to be leveraging the following geo-political and strategical dynamics, for which 24 hrs are a long time:

• The Zionist nut cases have publicly stated they would like to nuke their way to making the "promised Greater Israil", which includes the oil rich Arab states. Now, all of them are at the mercy of a nuclear deterrence treaty with Pak!
• Israil is in no mode to dial down. So, new opportunities for Pak for the obvious reasons.
• The West-Russia existential long-war prospects usher in little more room for Pak to manuever.
• A slight drop in the India-USA romance is another welcome sign, albeit for a short period of time.
• The Chinese dominance in Afganistan can't be ignored to tame down the hot ball$ over there.
• The US-China contest for hegemony is never short of surprises for Pak. Especially, the US's intense involvement in the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal means more impetus for CPEC.
• Thanks to the India-China tensions and exponentially growing conventional capability of Pak, the threat from India is becoming a non-starter.
• The stronger the BRICS, aka de-dollarization, grows the more double ups for Pak.
• Etc.

 

[FuturePAF]

Gwadar was a failed projet even before it started. Sea-transport is dozens of times cheaper than land transport. China would rather ship it's containers 10000km via sea than 2000km via land, it's much much cheaper.
Gwadar is an insurance policy in a highly far-fetched scenario and somwhow China got Pakistan to pay for it using Chinese companies, labour and experts.

Your next 2-3 generations will pay for Gwadar through their nose.

If Gwadar were a failed project, India wouldn’t be keeping tabs on it the way it does. Sea transport is cheaper then land transport, but if the mines are further in land, and the labor force is in land (as applies to India as well), building out the infrastructure to get as close to potential markets (as with new Indian ports in Gujarat over existing ports in Mumbai).

Gwadar is close to Reko-Diq, and mines in Afghanistan. It is also along a potential wind power corridor (between Gwadar and Quetta).

Perishable food stuffs like Eggs or meat get exported by India everyday to the Gulf countries. If Pakistan railways can offload this cargo by train in Gwadar (closer to the gulf market), it can be shipped faster, and win market share, especially in organic eggs.

 

[FuturePAF]

The Pak Deep State's policy is simple: be the first in queue when food is served, but the last in queue when fighring starts....

On a serious note, the Pak Deep State appears to be leveraging the following geo-political and strategical dynamics, for which 24 hrs are a long time:

• The Zionist nut cases have publicly stated they would like to nuke their way to making the "promised Greater Israil", which includes the oil rich Arab states. Now, all of them are at the mercy of a nuclear deterrence treaty with Pak!
• Israil is in no mode to dial down. So, new opportunities for Pak for the obvious reasons.
• The West-Russia existential long-war prospects usher in little more room for Pak to manuever.
• A slight drop in the India-USA romance is another welcome sign, albeit for a short period of time.
• The Chinese dominance in Afganistan can't be ignored to tame down the hot ball$ over there.
• The US-China contest for hegemony is never short of surprises for Pak. Especially, the US's intense involvement in the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal means more impetus for CPEC.
• Thanks to the India-China tensions and exponentially growing conventional capability of Pak, the threat from India is becoming a non-starter.
• The stronger the BRICS, aka de-dollarization, grows the more double ups for Pak.
• Etc.

Not to mention US aspirations to do more in Central Asia, and the risk of the Russians and/or Indians interfering with Central Asians imports/exports through their territory or potential across the Caspain. Pakistan and Afghanistan is the only land corridor to Central Asia without going through Iran, Russia, or China.

This is why Biden met with the leader of the all five Central Asian countries in a single meeting, only 4 months ago.

If Pakistan can broker Western and Gulf Countries (that are looking into investing into mining in minerals, to diversify from oil/gas) to go it on Central Asia, Pakistan can use this as leverage on the Afghans to be cooperative and reasonable business partners, as well as getting sanctions relief from the West. It can be Win-Win-Win-Win-Win for Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia, the Gulf Arabs, and the West. It would be at the expense of the Russians (that are doing more new defense business with India, so no love lost by Pakistan) and the Iranians. China would be a safe corridor to Gwadar as only Iran and India would be motivated to support the BLA, but that can be dealt with a strong economy and development and a modern military. Gwadar and by and large CPEC would get a pass by the US, especially if Pakistan would give some of the infrastructure contracts to western firms, such as in agriculture and mining.

 

[FuturePAF]

They're just waiting for Imran Khan to be killed before taking financially wise but politically unpopular decision.

Electricity prices will have be increased further, taxes increased , real eastate and property taxed more.

Pakistan does not have eggs and meat for export!!

Pakistan is having to import even basic food studd like WHEAT and PULSES(dal) every year. I don't know who is putting these fanciful ideas in your mind, but Gwadar has not and will not result in anything more than Hambantota.

Investors would come in to make products for export if the economics make sense. Hambantota is a port on an island, Gwadar is a large natural harbor and now a port on a strategic point on the vast Eurasian heartland.

Regardless of what happens to IK, economics are economics, and only when investors (or taxpayers) are willing to make the country a competitive place to produce export products will anything change. Electricity prices can be brought down with a bailout if the country can manage the funds to buy out the IPPs out of their contracts and renegotiate a better deal.

 

[HAIDER]

Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir

Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan's traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s...

www.mei.edu

Gen. Asim Munir's "Doctrine" Released | Why, How & WTF with Michael Kugelman

Hard talking #pakistani journalist #wajahatsaeedkhan covers #pakistan #pakistannews #pakistanarmy and the #pakistani diaspora like nobody else. His latest re...

www.youtube.com

What to make of this doctrine? Pakistan not wanting to be drawn into great power politics, for instance, which IMHO would be great if possible.

Perhaps, If both the US and Pakistan can look past the short term potential of dealing with potential threats emanating from Afghanistan kinetically, and look to longer term potential of getting Afghanistan on board with a western economic push into Central Asia, as well as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs pushing back, in a unified way, on Iranian influence on Iran’s Northern and Eastern Flank, as well as pushing back on Russian Influence on their southern under belly. This especially in light of the great push for minerals for the EV transition.

Gen. Munir is right to focus on CARs, but how it gets it done is the real crux of the matter. In that regard, the elections will be crucial for striking while the iron is hot. Allowing the PTI to contest freely, but allowing SMQ run for the PM post and IK as President (a non-elected role?), Moonis Elahi as FM (to give him a prominent role, win votes in Northern Punjab, and raise a new generation of a potential PM) would be a pragmatic solution (to attract FDI and remittances) if coupled with bringing in the best experts in every field from within the country and the diaspora (such as Atif Mian for the Finance minister post) for cabinet positions, but also to lead a Pakistani version of MITI (an advisory body that dictates industrial policy for the country on the model followed by Post-war Japan). SMQ is also well connected in the west, and has served with PTI but also PPP, a good candidate with international experience to help rebrand the national brand, democratic and economic focus (within the limits of our interests). IK as the president and highest civilian position in the country could be the soft side / good cop in building relations with the Afghans and the Mil could be the hard hand, hence why a non-bases but economic first approach and a stronger Pakistan Mil to handle terror threats maybe below any thresholds the Afghans may have if it is in the form of a “skirmish”, should that ever become necessary.

An important point, which Wajahat and Michael points out from 25:00 onwards, and that in the recent visit by Gen. Munir to NY and DC he went to bat for the Kashmir issue, meeting with the UN Secretary General and think tanks in DC.

Shabaz Sharif also backtracked on trade but if India changes its stance on Kashmir and article 370, which would make him not that different from IK, and that Nawaz stance is not much different then his brother’s stance.

Nawaz also shouldn’t be brought back in, because he is chief amongst the failed industrialist class, and would push back on any reforms that end elite capture. He would also oppose any tax reforms such as property tax. (Any new government shouldn’t be dependent on the PPP, as they will almost certainly oppose land reforms. Not saying that other parties will support land reforms, but may see it as less core to most of their constituencies interests).

15:32-17:06 per Moonis Elahi: The sharifs can’t handle anyone else’s opinion, can’t work with anyone else, they won’t do anything themselves and will just get two sets of stooges to fight each other.

IMHO, Pakistan needs a stance like an Azad Kashmir (akin to West Germany) that can be built up over the next few decades, waiting in the wings until a peaceful possibility of freedom presents itself, in the mean time trade with India (always protecting our industries from Indian competitors) but not conceding anything on Kashmir.

IMHO, These are the States Pakistan needs to focus on to gain global importance again. I’ll have to brush on my Russian

This area is the convergence of the Russian world (Russki Mir), the Turkic world, the Persian world, growing Chinese influence and South Asian influence. The four sided Lodo board Pakistan needs to focus on.
View attachment 2603

A lot is happening in Central Asia. A lot of money to be made, a lot of global importance to be gained.

Do we have any Pakistan strategic policy ? or we have Generals doctrines ?

 

[FuturePAF]

I may be the Devil's advocate but if Imran Khan had listened to Asim Munir(then ISI Chief) and conducted an investigation into the financial dealings of Buzdar and Bushra Bibi; Pakistan's history would've gone in a completely different direction.

Imran just had to take a harder stance against corruption and may be this chaos would've been prevented.

It’s not corruption as much as it’s about elite capture. Corruption is a maybe 10-20% off the top, but elite capture is like Indian or Soviet socialist economies or colonial economies. No incentive to improve, limited money reinvested back into increasing yields, and preventing anyone from coming into the market to outcompete existing market share holders.

 

[TheEconomist]

It’s not corruption as much as it’s about elite capture. Corruption is a maybe 10-20% off the top, but elite capture is like Indian or Soviet socialist economies or colonial economies. No incentive to improve, limited money reinvested back into increasing yields, and preventing anyone from coming into the market to outcompete existing market share holders.

I agreee with you completely. My train of though was in a different direction.

If IK had taken Munir's advice regarding corruption in the PTI. If he had removed Buzdar and restricted Bushra Bibi from making shady dealings in his name then Pakistan's political scenairo would've been very different.

 

[FuturePAF]

Why would the Chinese renegotiate IPP contracts? They've soviergn-guaranteed high-paying long-term contracts with virtaully no downside. It's a golden goose and they would suck every drop out of the Pakistani coffers using it. It's just good business.

Imran tried to spread rumours regarding renegotiating but was put in his place promptly by the Chinese https://www.dawn.com/news/1578328 China will always extract it's pound of flesh. The Sino-Pak friendsip is one-way.

Eurasian heartland has plenty of stable options to export from, such as Iran. WHy would they want to send their products to Gwadar via unstable Afghanistan? Plus Eurasian heartland is virtually empty with very little population and economic output.

A more stable and growing economy offers more opportunities than one saddled with debt it is struggling to pay off.

Iran maybe “stable”, but it looks like it won’t be long before it becomes even more sanctioned than Russia with what has been happening over the last 3 months. Western and GCC would not want to go through Iran anyway. India will continue to do what it has always done, so will Russia, vis a vis Iranian trans-shipment, but will anyone else?

 

[TheEconomist]

A more stable and growing economy offers more opportunities than one saddled with debt it is struggling to pay off.

Iran maybe “stable”, but it looks like it won’t be long before it becomes even more sanctioned than Russia with what has been happening over the last 3 months. Western and GCC would not want to go through Iran anyway. India will continue to do what it has always done, so will Russia, vis a vis Iranian trans-shipment, but will anyone else?

one word :- HAMBANTOTA. China will take-over Gwadar forefully if debts are not paid. It will take over all major govt buildings as well. Don't expect the Chinese to write the loan off.

There are only three ways to pay
Cash :- Pak has none.
Grass :- Afghanistan does a better job than Pak in thiw regard.
Ass :- https://www.dailyo.in/news/why-does-china-want-pakistans-donkeys-40317 Not enough donkeys to pay off the massive debt.

 

[FuturePAF]

I agreee with you completely. My train of though was in a different direction.

If IK had taken Munir's advice regarding corruption in the PTI. If he had removed Buzdar and restricted Bushra Bibi from making shady dealings in his name then Pakistan's political scenairo would've been very different.

That’s like touching the problem at the margins. Pakistan needs a 1978 Deng or 1991 Manmohan Singh moment. Turn away from all that came before and set a new course.

Now having the public on board is key. The is why I advocate IK as the next President, 5 years on regardless of who is PM, and Shah Mehmood Qureshi and PM. SMQ is a pragmatic person that worked for PPP (Left wing) and PTI (Right wing) as the FM. Decades of experience with foreign countries and knows how to be diplomatic, almost all the time.

Under him being in Atif Mian. Not only is he one of the most qualified people to advise the government on what to do, but as a minority it would be a visible departure from identity politics and a shift to a more inclusive Pakistan where merit supersedes all else. It would also be a signal to the west, in particular, that Pakistan is focused with mangers that know what they are talking mahout and have been empowered to do something about it.

 

[FuturePAF]

one word :- HAMBANTOTA. China will take-over Gwadar forefully if debts are not paid. It will take over all major govt buildings as well. Don't expect the Chinese to write the loan off.

There are only three ways to pay
Cash :- Pak has none.
Grass :- Afghanistan does a better job than Pak in thiw regard.
Ass :- https://www.dailyo.in/news/why-does-china-want-pakistans-donkeys-40317 Not enough donkeys to pay off the massive debt.

Pakistan can’t allow China to take Gwadar because Pak-US relations require Gwadar not become a “Chinese naval base”.

Sure Pakistan is unable to pay under its current circumstances, which is why it will have to break from its business as usual mindset and loosen its grip to allow reforms (new investors and the end of elite capture, the way Manmohan Singh did in 1991 India).

 

[FuturePAF]

Do we have any Pakistan strategic policy ? or we have Generals doctrines ?

All of it basically the Ayub Plan, or what South Korea did in the 60s and 70s, including being a bulwark against the Russians. When referring to block politics, the general indicates he thinks the two current blocks of the US and China. So that leaves open being in a Coalition to contain Russia and Iran but not at the expense of China. That could get some western and GCC money coming in.

No matter who decides Pakistan’s strategic policy, it doesn’t get a stable economy to give it the room to implement.

 

[TheEconomist]

That’s like touching the problem at the margins. Pakistan needs a 1978 Deng or 1991 Manmohan Singh moment. Turn away from all that came before and set a new course.

Now having the public on board is key. The is why I advocate IK as the next President, 5 years on regardless of who is PM, and Shah Mehmood Qureshi and PM. SMQ is a pragmatic person that worked for PPP (Left wing) and PTI (Right wing) as the FM. Decades of experience with foreign countries and knows how to be diplomatic, almost all the time.

Under him being in Atif Mian. Not only is he one of the most qualified people to advise the government on what to do, but as a minority it would be a visible departure from identity politics and a shift to a more inclusive Pakistan where merit supersedes all else. It would also be a signal to the west, in particular, that Pakistan is focused with mangers that know what they are talking mahout and have been empowered to do something about it.

IK changed finance ministers repeatedly. No minister could stay more than a few months. Even if Atif Mian came back to serve as finance minster, he would resign withn a month. Imran Khan is not a good leader, he does not have leadership qualities. He is too narcisstic, arrogant, rude and believes he is an expert on every subject.

SMQ is not diplomatic. He gets angry and makes irresponible statements on a regular basis. Pakistanis consider him an expert in foriegn relations because he speaks decent English, same as Hina Rabbani Khar. If you want to see a good foriegn minsiter see India's Jaishankar.