The Munir Doctrine
- Thread starter FuturePAF
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This is akin to an old book with a new cover.
A more totalitarian system where any semblance of political freedom is stifled, to show the world Pakistan is stable and open for business.
Mimicking an Egypt model, but the dynamics and strategic paradigm in South Asia are completely different.
A more totalitarian system where any semblance of political freedom is stifled, to show the world Pakistan is stable and open for business.
Mimicking an Egypt model, but the dynamics and strategic paradigm in South Asia are completely different.
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Dalit
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You don't make any sense whatsoever. Just because Karachi has a higher literacy rate doesn't mean that Pakistan stops developing and investing in other regions.
What is your beef with Gwadar? You are always extremely opposed to any sort of development and investment in Balochistan.
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Dalit
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The Egypt model won't work in Pakistan. Pakistan doesn't share a border with Israel. The Americans have long stopped providing aid to Pakistan. The Egyptians remain mum and swallow abuse because they still receive billions from daddy America.
I know some Pakistanis do not like people from Karachi. I never put you in that category.
You pretend like Pakistan is a land of honey and plenty. You have finite resources. You need to figure out where the return on investment is.
You are telling me you are going to invest $20 billion in a place where a few hundred thousand goat herders live. You are going to not invest in a 20 million metropolis where there are a few million educated people.
Tell me what am I missing
PakAl
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I agree and this is why Pakistan establishment and political parties need to reach an agreement to work hard to expand Gwadar and CPEC, we need long term policies to bring this dream in to reality and not flirt with world powers like Usa regarding this. Any compromise or delay should be unacceptable.
Gwadar city has the potential to be the most successful city of Pakistan. The port will be used by future super power China to take goods to China worth billions, oil/gas pipeline possibility, fishing exports, 1000s of foreign workers, industries, millions of locals and foreign tourism will generate income. Gwadar City should be given a special status, with its own police and security network, entrance only allowed through check points, local Balochi population should be given certain guarantees of job percentage. Create a Dubai, Shariah, sheikh al sharm style of modern city, minus alcohol and hookers (am guessing Pakistan elite will definitely promote this)
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FuturePAF
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I have to disagree somewhat, and agree with @nathanbob on this one. In the long term Gwadar has potential outside of most national development (a direct rail link between gwadar port and Reko Diq, making solar panels and batteries more economically feasible there, being next to a potential Quetta-Gwadar wind farm corridor, the end of a rail line from the rest of the country to export food to the Middle East and import oil to make petrochemicals, etc.),
But it is better to slow down investing in new infrastructure (outside of completing a few key projects; the Sukkur-Hyderabad motorway, modernization of ML-1, and the power transmission lines) and restructure our debts and focus on growing from what we currently have. Human capital in Karachi being one resource we should not overlook. Once Karachi is reformed and up and running Gwadar will easily get its due investment.
We MUST also be carrying out tax reforms to balance our budgets, and stop borrowing from abroad. We need to buy out the IPP to lower electricity costs by getting out of the badly negotiated deals.
We need to work on the fundamentals of industrial policy, and leverage our large population and strategic location appropriately. We need to reforms ourselves before we fall more at the mercy of Indian hegemony. We need to do the hard work now, and over the next 5-10 years so that any potential in Gwadar can actually be realized. Remember Gwadar was started under Mushraff over 15 years ago and is barely used. If we fix the rest of the country, and can afford to integrate Gwadar into the national development goals, as a bonus, it will quickly get enough domestic investment, even before there will be a need for foreign investment. Investment not loans.
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Fatman17
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Munir doctrine is basically the Ayub Khan model esp in agriculture.
Pakistan’s military and foreign policy under Gen. Asim Munir
Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan's traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. His successor, Gen. Asim Munir, in command of Pakistan’s military for the past year, now faces the challenging task of turning Gen. Bajwa’s...www.mei.edu
Gen. Asim Munir's "Doctrine" Released | Why, How & WTF with Michael Kugelman
Hard talking #pakistani journalist #wajahatsaeedkhan covers #pakistan #pakistannews #pakistanarmy and the #pakistani diaspora like nobody else. His latest re...www.youtube.com
What to make of this doctrine? Pakistan not wanting to be drawn into great power politics, for instance, which IMHO would be great if possible.
Perhaps, If both the US and Pakistan can look past the short term potential of dealing with potential threats emanating from Afghanistan kinetically, and look to longer term potential of getting Afghanistan on board with a western economic push into Central Asia, as well as Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the CARs pushing back, in a unified way, on Iranian influence on Iran’s Northern and Eastern Flank, as well as pushing back on Russian Influence on their southern under belly. This especially in light of the great push for minerals for the EV transition.
Gen. Munir is right to focus on CARs, but how it gets it done is the real crux of the matter. In that regard, the elections will be crucial for striking while the iron is hot. Allowing the PTI to contest freely, but allowing SMQ run for the PM post and IK as President (a non-elected role?), Moonis Elahi as FM (to give him a prominent role, win votes in Northern Punjab, and raise a new generation of a potential PM) would be a pragmatic solution (to attract FDI and remittances) if coupled with bringing in the best experts in every field from within the country and the diaspora (such as Atif Mian for the Finance minister post) for cabinet positions, but also to lead a Pakistani version of MITI (an advisory body that dictates industrial policy for the country on the model followed by Post-war Japan). SMQ is also well connected in the west, and has served with PTI but also PPP, a good candidate with international experience to help rebrand the national brand, democratic and economic focus (within the limits of our interests). IK as the president and highest civilian position in the country could be the soft side / good cop in building relations with the Afghans and the Mil could be the hard hand, hence why a non-bases but economic first approach and a stronger Pakistan Mil to handle terror threats maybe below any thresholds the Afghans may have if it is in the form of a “skirmish”, should that ever become necessary.
An important point, which Wajahat and Michael points out from 25:00 onwards, and that in the recent visit by Gen. Munir to NY and DC he went to bat for the Kashmir issue, meeting with the UN Secretary General and think tanks in DC.
Shabaz Sharif also backtracked on trade but if India changes its stance on Kashmir and article 370, which would make him not that different from IK, and that Nawaz stance is not much different then his brother’s stance.
Nawaz also shouldn’t be brought back in, because he is chief amongst the failed industrialist class, and would push back on any reforms that end elite capture. He would also oppose any tax reforms such as property tax. (Any new government shouldn’t be dependent on the PPP, as they will almost certainly oppose land reforms. Not saying that other parties will support land reforms, but may see it as less core to most of their constituencies interests).
15:32-17:06 per Moonis Elahi: The sharifs can’t handle anyone else’s opinion, can’t work with anyone else, they won’t do anything themselves and will just get two sets of stooges to fight each other.
IMHO, Pakistan needs a stance like an Azad Kashmir (akin to West Germany) that can be built up over the next few decades, waiting in the wings until a peaceful possibility of freedom presents itself, in the mean time trade with India (always protecting our industries from Indian competitors) but not conceding anything on Kashmir.
IMHO, These are the States Pakistan needs to focus on to gain global importance again. I’ll have to brush on my Russian
This area is the convergence of the Russian world (Russki Mir), the Turkic world, the Persian world, growing Chinese influence and South Asian influence. The four sided Lodo board Pakistan needs to focus on.
View attachment 2603
A lot is happening in Central Asia. A lot of money to be made, a lot of global importance to be gained.
FuturePAF
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The Ayub model was copied by South Korea, and that paid off well, so hopefully they get back to the pragmatic approach on politics, a well planned industrial policy for the next 20-30 years coupled with elections where the people feel their voices are heard for dealing with the social issues. This is why PTI (including IK) needs to be allowed to contest the election in a free and fair manner. The people need to buy into the system so they can stomach the needed reforms. The elite that will be asked to give up their elite capture need to know reforms will lead to growth that will offset any immediate loss of wealth the elites will face.
Unlike many doomsayers, I don’t think the gap between India and Pakistan is unbridgeable. I think Pakistan has injured itself for many decades (which some of the Munir Doctrine are addressing, such as sending back refugees although I would have hoped they did it with a bit more “heart”) and not even learned to compete. But with some management therapy, in 10–20 years, Pakistan can be on par with India. Especially if CPEC and central Asian trade take off.
Oscar
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There isn’t being on par with a nation that is multiples of land area and population along with effectively utilizing its talent and culture in capturing most of the technological and economic leadership roles in the west along with becoming one of the top 3-4 attractive markets for anyone looking to make a decent amount of money.
Suggest to think away from India and more along the lines of becoming a decent economy vis a vis Pakistan itself. Be your own metric and benchmark - more realistic and achievable goals will emerge
Martay hi rehangay beghairat, kuch karkay marro.
Pakistan is small compared to India. It will be always be 1/4 or 1/5 of India at best.
But Pakistan is a significant country standalone in terms of population, land mass, location. It remains to be seen if you can develop on your own terms and benchmarks as @Oscar points
FuturePAF
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On par per capita is realistic, IMHO. Bangladesh did it without much of the institutional infrastructure India has. India will always remain the pacing threat for Pakistan, whether we try to keep pace or not.
Pakistan can catch up if it restructures its debts, lowers the cost of doing business, and opens up its market to investors looking to make products for export. IT and Agriculture are the obvious two places to start, but making solar panels and batteries in JV with Chinese companies (that have the best technology in those products) can allow Pakistan to export to the Gulf Markets, especially if Pakistan mines its domestic copper reserves and negotiates well with Afghanistan for Lithium, cost of production in a SEZ in Gwadar makes economic sense. The large Pakistani market for these products can absorb excess production and consume excess electricity generated by Pakistani power plants not being fully utilized.
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