Vietnam-China relationship at deepest, most comprehensive and substantive level ever

[MH.Yang]

Agricultural exports currently comprise 12 to 15% of Vietnam’s total exports. To put this into perspective, when South Korea and Japan were at a similar stage of development, their agricultural exports accounted for only around 6 to 7%. And when I mention shifting away from "agriculture", I'm not suggesting that we should eliminate it entirely. At present, Vietnam's agriculture industry is largely dependent on manual labor and rudimentary production methods. While increasing revenue is certainly desirable, it shouldn't come at the cost of wasting resources. As for the Chinese assistance, what I meant in my previous post was the indirect impact of constructing the canal.

That's because Vietnam has far better agricultural arable land than South Korea and Japan. It is your advantage, it gets you through the capital accumulation stage faster, so why do you see it as a disadvantage?

Do you envy Korean and Japanese agriculture? Koreans and Japanese are envying you Vietnamese. I suggest you find out the per capita fruit consumption in Korea and Japan and compare it with Vietnam.

Vietnamese have the same social base of Confucian values as China Japan and Korea, you are more like an East Asian country. You will definitely follow the same path of industrialization.

 

[Viet]

That's the price the Vietnamese government has paid for repeatedly using Ho Chi Minh City's position as an outlet to the Mekong River for political blackmail against China. Now Ho Chi Minh City is no longer the best and closest access to the Mekong River.

We'll be helping Thailand build the Kra Canal next. The youngest daughter of Thailand's most pro-Chinese Thaksin family has become the new Thai prime minister.

And Burma's Kokang Allied Army, the United Wa State Army, the Kachin Independence Army, and the Shan State Army have captured Burma's third-largest city, Ranjung, eliminating Burma's northeastern theater of operations and capturing the theater commander, Hso Tin. They will soon capture Mandalay, the second largest city, and then move south to join with the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) to capture all the sea outlets east of Rangoon and link up with the Kra Canal.

We've had enough of the greed and incompetence of the Burmese junta and the bamboo diplomacy of the Vietnamese government.

The Strait of Malacca is about to become a joke. The Salween and Mekong river basins will become the core economic regions of Southeast Asia.

MNDAA will help the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi to overthrow the Burmese junta and return to power. The new Burmese government will take control of the south and west of the country and will cooperate with China and the Security Council in mediating an end to the persecution of the Rohingya. The MNDAA will control the autonomous states in the north and west of Burma. Together, they will restore peace and order in Burma.
And Vietnam's southern faction led by Ho Chi Minh City, a white-eyed wolf hostile to China while reaping benefits from China through the Mekong River outlet, will get what they deserve. With the use of the Cambodian Canal and the Kra Canal, Vietnam's economic core will shift to the north.

You live in a fantasyland. Saigon is always a center of commerce and agra, Hanoi political and industrial heart of Vietnam. Where Saigon is misused to blackmail China? I don’t understand.

Of course you can do what fits best to your interests. Then you should give us the rights to do what fits best in our interests. But I think it’s better if both VN and CN agree on a common approach.

I don’t know why you mention Burma. If if you take the situation there to your credit it just a disaster. Thailand can slip into chaos. Cambodia, Laos may follow. No offense, the Chinese excel in lots of things, we admire you very much, but if coming to geopolitics and military we play a better game.

About accusing us a double face, that’s ridiculous. The Vietnamese are much Chinese alike. If you say us double face then you are double face, too.

 

[MH.Yang]

You live in a fantasyland. Saigon is always a center of commerce and agra, Hanoi political and industrial heart of Vietnam. Where Saigon is misused to blackmail China? I don’t understand.

Of course you can do what fits best to your interests. Then you should give us the rights to do what fits best in our interests. But I think it’s better if both VN and CN agree on a common approach.

I don’t know why you mention Burma. If if you take the situation there to your credit it just a disaster. Thailand can slip into chaos. Cambodia, Laos may follow. No offense, the Chinese excel in lots of things, we admire you very much, but if coming to geopolitics and military we play a better game.

About accusing us a double face, that’s ridiculous. The Vietnamese are much Chinese alike. If you say us double face then you are double face, too.

The junta in Burma is too greedy and incompetent.

China and Myanmar signed a cooperation agreement where China funded the construction of the China-Myanmar Railway in Myanmar from Ruili through Mandalay to Kyaukphyu port. The construction of the railroad was interrupted by the riots in Burma caused by the coup d'état of the Burmese military junta that overthrew the government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Chinese government sends a special envoy to mediate, but the junta purges NDL politicians and civil war breaks out. The junta also provoked extremist Buddhist organizations to persecute the Rohingya, shifting the internal conflict to the Rohingya. China was entrusted by the Security Council to send a special envoy to mediate the Rohingya issue, but the junta went so far as to blackmail the Chinese government into recognizing the legitimacy of the junta.

In the past few years, the military junta has also used telecommunication fraud in the Chinese-speaking circles to enrich themselves, cheating hundreds of billions of dollars of the property of Chinese people in various countries. The military junta has also lured Chinese people to Myanmar for kidnapping and extortion.

In 2023, the armies of the various autonomous states in northern Burma began to dismantle the Burmese telecom fraud and kidnapping industry with the unity of the Kokang Allied Forces, arresting tens of thousands of criminals and handing them over to the Chinese government, including Burmese military officers such as the Deputy Minister of Defense, who were harboring telecom fraud criminals. Because the junta was still harboring the criminals, the allied forces launched an offensive against the Burmese junta. By now, the Min Lay Aung regime is in jeopardy.

The Allied lines of attack gradually approached the area of the Clarke Canal to the southwest. Eventually they will assist the Chinese and NDL governments in maintaining canal security and stabilizing the situation in Burma.

 

[Viet]

The junta in Burma is too greedy and incompetent.

China and Myanmar signed a cooperation agreement where China funded the construction of the China-Myanmar Railway in Myanmar from Ruili through Mandalay to Kyaukphyu port. The construction of the railroad was interrupted by the riots in Burma caused by the coup d'état of the Burmese military junta that overthrew the government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Chinese government sends a special envoy to mediate, but the junta purges NDL politicians and civil war breaks out. The junta also provoked extremist Buddhist organizations to persecute the Rohingya, shifting the internal conflict to the Rohingya. China was entrusted by the Security Council to send a special envoy to mediate the Rohingya issue, but the junta went so far as to blackmail the Chinese government into recognizing the legitimacy of the junta.

In the past few years, the military junta has also used telecommunication fraud in the Chinese-speaking circles to enrich themselves, cheating hundreds of billions of dollars of the property of Chinese people in various countries. The military junta has also lured Chinese people to Myanmar for kidnapping and extortion.

In 2023, the armies of the various autonomous states in northern Burma began to dismantle the Burmese telecom fraud and kidnapping industry with the unity of the Kokang Allied Forces, arresting tens of thousands of criminals and handing them over to the Chinese government, including Burmese military officers such as the Deputy Minister of Defense, who were harboring telecom fraud criminals. Because the junta was still harboring the criminals, the allied forces launched an offensive against the Burmese junta. By now, the Min Lay Aung regime is in jeopardy.

The Allied lines of attack gradually approached the area of the Clarke Canal to the southwest. Eventually they will assist the Chinese and NDL governments in maintaining canal security and stabilizing the situation in Burma.

Burma will never dare to do such a thing if we are their neighbor. We will slap their face immediately. Taiwan is still independent. Japan re-military strengthening. Korea totally alienated from China, so Philippines, Europe, America. China geopolitics is a complete disaster.
If we Vietnam just 1/10 of China military power. Lucky for ASEAN we are a peaceful nation.

 

[Yellow is Okay]

That's because Vietnam has far better agricultural arable land than South Korea and Japan. It is your advantage, it gets you through the capital accumulation stage faster, so why do you see it as a disadvantage?

Do you envy Korean and Japanese agriculture? Koreans and Japanese are envying you Vietnamese. I suggest you find out the per capita fruit consumption in Korea and Japan and compare it with Vietnam.

Vietnamese have the same social base of Confucian values as China Japan and Korea, you are more like an East Asian country. You will definitely follow the same path of industrialization.

Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should, and even when we should, it doesn't necessarily mean we need to invest the same or more resources into agriculture. For example, Thailand has twice the amount of agricultural and arable land as Vietnam, yet they are not as dependent on agriculture as Vietnam is. And relatively speaking, Vietnam is no longer in the extreme poverty we once experienced. When it comes to modernization, directing more workforce and resources into agriculture is inefficient. What we really need now is greater agricultural mechanization. Few people are aware that the Mekong Delta, which has the highest agricultural output in Vietnam, contributes more to the economy through agricultural exports than the Red River Delta. This strong focus on agriculture shapes the Southern economy, making the South centered around finance, commerce, and agriculture, while heavy industries remain relatively weak compared to those in the North.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Burma will never dare to do such a thing if we are their neighbor. We will slap their face immediately. Taiwan is still independent. Japan re-military strengthening. Korea totally alienated from China, so Philippines, Europe, America. China geopolitics is a complete disaster.
If we Vietnam just 1/10 of China military power. Lucky for ASEAN we are a peaceful nation.

Bro, Vietnam is not even 1/100 of China's military power, let alone the technological power.

Once China has completely overpowered the US, it will be over for that small pitiful anti-China alliance.

 

[MH.Yang]

Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should, and even when we should, it doesn't necessarily mean we need to invest the same or more resources into agriculture. For example, Thailand has twice the amount of agricultural and arable land as Vietnam, yet they are not as dependent on agriculture as Vietnam is. And relatively speaking, Vietnam is no longer in the extreme poverty we once experienced. When it comes to modernization, directing more workforce and resources into agriculture is inefficient. What we really need now is greater agricultural mechanization. Few people are aware that the Mekong Delta, which has the highest agricultural output in Vietnam, contributes more to the economy through agricultural exports than the Red River Delta. This strong focus on agriculture shapes the Southern economy, making the South centered around finance, commerce, and agriculture, while heavy industries remain relatively weak compared to those in the North.

Vietnam can seamlessly connect to China's complete industrial chain and is in fact very conducive to industrial development. What really plagues Vietnamese industry is power, energy and investment..

Vietnam is not suitable for wind power. Solar power is too high an upfront investment. All major countries in the world are gradually banning thermal power generation and stopping the export of thermal power technology and equipment. Vietnam has a dry water season from May to July every year, which also does not provide stable.

Therefore, the right way for the Vietnamese government to solve the power problem should be to rely on power exports from neighboring countries in the early stage, and then build wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the sea when economic conditions permit. Nuclear power plants can also be built at suitable locations.

The really hard problem is energy. The Vietnamese government's intentions are clear: it wants China's power, logistics, industrial chain, investment and technology exports as well as the U.S. market.

Previously, Vietnam had tried to solve its energy problem by exploiting oil in the South China Sea with Western energy companies. But the result was to lead to a fierce reaction from China, as it is doing now with the Philippines, which cut off cooperation in everything from investment, finance, electricity and logistics, and increased patrols and confrontation in the South China Sea. China's opposition to Western involvement in the South China Sea issue is obvious, and this approach will not work.
Later the Vietnamese government cooperated with Russian energy companies to exploit oil in the South China Sea and negotiate nuclear power plant projects. This time the Chinese government did not object and allowed Russia to intervene in the South China Sea. But the U.S. government was vehement, and they pressured the Vietnamese government by refusing to recognize Vietnam's market economy status and by raising tariffs, and so the cooperation between Vietnam and Russia stopped.
So the Vietnamese government needs more political wisdom to solve the energy problem.
The issue of investment is more about politics.

From the U.S. point of view, because of geography, the U.S. is not willing to see the economic development of ASEAN countries, which will only bring a huge market to China, which is more favorable to China than to the United States. The U.S. would prefer to harvest the accumulated wealth of the ASEAN countries over and over again, as it did in 1997, so that China cannot take advantage of the markets in the neighboring countries. The U.S. is most interested in the industrial development of Mexico and other pro-U.S. South American countries, followed by India.
Vietnam is not only the closest ASEAN country to China it is also a communist country and has a history of defeating the US military and has a legacy of issues such as Agent Orange. And there aren't many manufacturing companies that the US can control right now, only companies like Apple Tesla and they certainly prioritize going into countries like Mexico India and not Vietnam. Vietnam can attract Japanese and Korean manufacturing companies, but not American companies.
What the US wants is for Vietnam to give them a reason to intervene in the South China Sea issue, and at the same time for Vietnam to become the Ukraine of the South China Sea for use in draining China's national power. The reward the US offers is access to US markets. The Vietnamese government apparently did not agree to the deal. This is a major reason why Vietnam is now subject to Western financial plunder.
Considering from China's point of view, Vietnam and Cambodia, Thailand and Laos are all part of the Mekong River Basin countries with similar conditions. Although Vietnam's Confucian culture and geographical location are more favorable, Vietnam's ambiguous attitude toward China is not as reliable as the other three countries. Therefore, China adopts a free-market attitude towards investment into the four Mekong countries and does not make any administrative intervention.
Overall, Vietnam is the most promising country in ASEAN to become an industrial powerhouse. But this requires the Vietnamese government to demonstrate sufficient political wisdom. In Chinese parlance, the Vietnamese government needs to have the ability to dance on three eggs.

 

[MH.Yang]

Burma will never dare to do such a thing if we are their neighbor. We will slap their face immediately. Taiwan is still independent. Japan re-military strengthening. Korea totally alienated from China, so Philippines, Europe, America. China geopolitics is a complete disaster.
If we Vietnam just 1/10 of China military power. Lucky for ASEAN we are a peaceful nation.

Here's the news from July when Chinese SWAT busted a Burmese criminal industrial park. Chinese SWAT captured and rescued 269 people, including 15 Vietnamese. Since you think the Vietnamese are better than the Chinese, why don't you guys rescue these Vietnamese yourselves?

 

[ety]

China and Myanmar signed a cooperation agreement where China funded the construction of the China-Myanmar Railway in Myanmar from Ruili through Mandalay to Kyaukphyu port. The construction of the railroad was interrupted by the riots in Burma caused by the coup d'état of the Burmese military junta that overthrew the government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Pan-Asia railway network will be completed in due time. The first priority is to build the central railway from Kunming to Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore. The second priority line is from Kunming all the way to the south port of Myanmar. The last priority is to build a line from Kunming to Vietnam all the way down to Ho Chi Minh city if it would be ever built. It's better for China to leave Vietnam alone about the railways and the power stations needed to run the lines.

 

[Michael]

Just because we can do something doesn't mean we should, and even when we should, it doesn't necessarily mean we need to invest the same or more resources into agriculture. For example, Thailand has twice the amount of agricultural and arable land as Vietnam, yet they are not as dependent on agriculture as Vietnam is. And relatively speaking, Vietnam is no longer in the extreme poverty we once experienced. When it comes to modernization, directing more workforce and resources into agriculture is inefficient. What we really need now is greater agricultural mechanization. Few people are aware that the Mekong Delta, which has the highest agricultural output in Vietnam, contributes more to the economy through agricultural exports than the Red River Delta. This strong focus on agriculture shapes the Southern economy, making the South centered around finance, commerce, and agriculture, while heavy industries remain relatively weak compared to those in the North.

Judging from the specifications of China's reception of To Lam and the atmosphere of the talks today, the two sides are very friendly.

Next, it's up to To Lam to deal with the factional problem in the country. If To Lam resolves this issue, China and Vietnam should soon start consultations on some substantive issues. To Lam has just taken office, and he needs some time to resolve Viet Nam's internal political problems. China will also give him time and some possible help. If he fails to resolve his internal problems well, the future of China-Vietnamese relations may undergo major changes.

If China-Vietnamese relations develop in a good direction in the future, once the China-Vietnam high-speed railway is opened, many labor-intensive factories in China will be transferred to Viet Nam.

 

[Michael]

At present, China has sent a heavyweight star diplomat like Wang Wenbin as its ambassador to Cambodia, which means that China will pursue many major strategies in Southeast Asia in the coming years.

Lancang-Mekong Cooperation。 It is one of the most important strategic tasks. If Viet Nam successfully converges, this will allow Viet Nam's economy to take off. If this opportunity is missed, Viet Nam's economy will be left far behind by other countries.

 

[Viet]

Judging from the specifications of China's reception of To Lam and the atmosphere of the talks today, the two sides are very friendly.

Next, it's up to To Lam to deal with the factional problem in the country. If To Lam resolves this issue, China and Vietnam should soon start consultations on some substantive issues. To Lam has just taken office, and he needs some time to resolve Viet Nam's internal political problems. China will also give him time and some possible help. If he fails to resolve his internal problems well, the future of China-Vietnamese relations may undergo major changes.

If China-Vietnamese relations develop in a good direction in the future, once the China-Vietnam high-speed railway is opened, many labor-intensive factories in China will be transferred to Viet Nam.

Ccp will not allow transfer of massive manufacturing to Vietnam. In doing so is political suicide by Ccp. What’s doable is a balance approach where both sides can keep domestic unease under control.
It’s a take and give. Vietnam asks China for soft loans and technology, in return Vietnam will give defense and security. The latter sounds ridiculous but Vietnam plays a better hand in geopolitics between the great powers. China is in such a mess.

I don’t know why we need a protocol in crocodiles trades.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vietnams-top-leaders-meet-beijing-2024-08-19/

 

[Michael]

Ccp will not allow transfer of massive manufacturing to Vietnam. In doing so is political suicide by Ccp. What’s doable is a balance approach where both sides can keep domestic unease under control.

China has invested in labor-intensive factories in many countries. I have never heard of the Chinese government restricting Viet Nam in this regard. Your message is a false statement.

China's manufacturing industry is transforming from labor-intensive to intelligent factories. Many traditional labor-intensive enterprises are being phased out by China. And this is exactly what many developing countries need, such as Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan..............

In fact, there are already many Chinese-invested factories in Viet Nam. Judging from the feedback from these investors, the current investment environment in Viet Nam is not ideal, and many investors are considering withdrawing from Viet Nam. The problems they responded to were mainly focused on the following aspects:

1. Government issues. Corruption of local government officials in Viet Nam. A lot of corruption has become the unspoken rule of 100% of occurrences. Many of the government officials and law enforcement officials specifically targeted Chinese businessmen.
2. Labor issues. Viet Nam workers are far less industrious and skilled than Chinese workers, who often strike to demand wage increases, but their actual labor productivity is much lower than that of Chinese workers. As a result, many businessmen prefer to bring workers from China.
3. Energy issues. Frequent power outages..........

I don't know if these situations are true or not, but this is the feedback from Chinese investors who have invested in Viet Nam on Chinese social media. These factors have led to low interest in Chinese businessmen investing in Viet Nam.

If Viet Nam wants to attract more Chinese investors, it needs to make some improvements to the investment environment.

At present, the government usually does not interfere with the investment of Chinese private capital abroad, except for some sensitive technologies and industries (China's Ministry of Commerce has a public list of restrictions and related prohibitions). Even in India and the Philippines, which are very hostile to China, there are still many Chinese investors investing there, and the Chinese government has not interfered.

Of course, if Viet Nam wants to obtain significant investment from Chinese state-owned enterprises, this must be agreed by the Chinese government.

 

[MH.Yang]

Ccp will not allow transfer of massive manufacturing to Vietnam. In doing so is political suicide by Ccp. What’s doable is a balance approach where both sides can keep domestic unease under control.
It’s a take and give. Vietnam asks China for soft loans and technology, in return Vietnam will give defense and security. The latter sounds ridiculous but Vietnam plays a better hand in geopolitics between the great powers. China is in such a mess.

I don’t know why we need a protocol in crocodiles trades.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-vietnams-top-leaders-meet-beijing-2024-08-19/

Why moving some manufacturing to Vietnam is tantamount to political suicide?

 

[MH.Yang]

China has invested in labor-intensive factories in many countries. I have never heard of the Chinese government restricting Viet Nam in this regard. Your message is a false statement.

China's manufacturing industry is transforming from labor-intensive to intelligent factories. Many traditional labor-intensive enterprises are being phased out by China. And this is exactly what many developing countries need, such as Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan..............

In fact, there are already many Chinese-invested factories in Viet Nam. Judging from the feedback from these investors, the current investment environment in Viet Nam is not ideal, and many investors are considering withdrawing from Viet Nam. The problems they responded to were mainly focused on the following aspects:

1. Government issues. Corruption of local government officials in Viet Nam. A lot of corruption has become the unspoken rule of 100% of occurrences. Many of the government officials and law enforcement officials specifically targeted Chinese businessmen.
2. Labor issues. Viet Nam workers are far less industrious and skilled than Chinese workers, who often strike to demand wage increases, but their actual labor productivity is much lower than that of Chinese workers. As a result, many businessmen prefer to bring workers from China.
3. Energy issues. Frequent power outages..........

I don't know if these situations are true or not, but this is the feedback from Chinese investors who have invested in Viet Nam on Chinese social media. These factors have led to low interest in Chinese businessmen investing in Viet Nam.

If Viet Nam wants to attract more Chinese investors, it needs to make some improvements to the investment environment.

At present, the government usually does not interfere with the investment of Chinese private capital abroad, except for some sensitive technologies and industries (China's Ministry of Commerce has a public list of restrictions and related prohibitions). Even in India and the Philippines, which are very hostile to China, there are still many Chinese investors investing there, and the Chinese government has not interfered.

Of course, if Viet Nam wants to obtain significant investment from Chinese state-owned enterprises, this must be agreed by the Chinese government.

Vietnam does have a very serious corruption problem, they are almost universally corrupt. The Vietnamese don't hate corrupt officials at all, they just hate themselves for not being officials.

I had told @Viet this very honestly, but Viet still thinks Vietnam is about as corrupt as China.

In fact, just go to YouTube and look at the videos of Chinese visiting Vietnam and the videos of Vietnamese, and you will see that almost every Chinese video complains about the universal corruption in Vietnam, while the Vietnamese videos never say anything about the corruption in China.

But Vietnamese are still hard working, which you may have a misconception about them. in 2022, our company's team of Vietnamese in Vietnam was wiped out before COVID, and many other engineers were infected twice. But when we went over there with the new equipment, they still all went to commission the equipment, guaranteeing production during COVID. This kind of thing is not possible for teams in every country.