Who Rules the Waves? U.S. and Chinese Fleets, by Tonnage

[FuturePAF]

I am not sure Russia and North Korea are ready now to let China use the Tumen river down to the sea. I doubt Russia will ever let China to use the port as some sort of naval base for battleships and subs to access Sea of Japan.

Can’t China invoke the “no limits partnership”. If not warships, it would be a good place to put a small commercial port, specifically for cruise ships. Good for visiting Vladivostok and the Russian Far East’s nature along the coast, specifically on Sakhalin as well visiting western Japanese cities. A good itinerary for a 7 day cruise.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-china-deepen-no-limits-partnership-with-xi-2023-10-15/

 

[ety]

Can’t China invoke the “no limits partnership”. If not warships, it would be a good place to put a small commercial port, specifically for cruise ships. Good for visiting Vladivostok and the Russian Far East’s nature as well as western Japanese cities. A good itinerary for a 7 day cruise.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-china-deepen-no-limits-partnership-with-xi-2023-10-15/

No limits partnership is just a phrase used by Chinese and maybe Russian to describe the nature of the relationship, I think the phrase was coined by a Chinese diplomat vice foreign minister at the time, and I don't think it is official Chinese or Russian foreign policy between the two nations as stipulated in treaty or agreement. Commercial port usage maybe possible sometime later when Russia and North Korea are ready. Unless China also let Russia navy have access to some Chinese port and coast in return., then Russian might agree.

 

[FuturePAF]

No limits partnership is just a phrase used by Chinese and maybe Russian to describe the nature of the relationship, I think the phrase was coined by a Chinese diplomat vice foreign minister at the time, and I don't think it is official Chinese or Russian foreign policy between the two nations as stipulated in treaty or agreement. Commercial port usage maybe possible sometime later when Russia and North Korea are ready. Unless China also let Russia navy have access to some Chinese port and coast in return., then Russian might agree.

Things might be changing on the Tumen.

 

[Pingle]

Firstly the thread title is misleading..... who rules the waves...... with 3 island chains under the control of USA and allies, top of it poor China with only single coast line country this poor China is nothing but a landlocked Nepal or mongolia with sea.... there's a reason China is pouring billions in CPEC and bri cause they know they are technically a landlocked nation and know their vulnerability....

 

[ety]

Firstly the thread title is misleading..... who rules the waves...... with 3 island chains under the control of USA and allies, top of it poor China with only single coast line country this poor China is nothing but a landlocked Nepal or mongolia with sea.... there's a reason China is pouring billions in CPEC and bri cause they know they are technically a landlocked nation and know their vulnerability....

What a foolish claim that China is landlocked as Nepal and Mongolia with sea, lol, better to say your India is landlocked because India is nobody and it has no shipping industry and only mini navy when compardd to China. Indians logic at their best, lol.

 

[j_hungary]

It’s not only the tonnage by access. If China builds a port on the Tumen River, where the Korean/Russian/Chinese border meet; ostensibly as a cruise and commercial freight port, it could also be used to base a small but potent Surface warship and submarine force for use against Japan and South Korea in the Sea of Japan, but also for SSNs and SSBNs to get to deep water from through friendlier Russian waters and archipelagos.

Now maybe a good time for China to make a deal with North Korea and Russia to get access to this pathway to the ocean.

A canal between this river and other rivers all the way to the Bohai Sea would open up china’s ability to move to this region undetected.



Directly into deep water.
View attachment 50460

The draft of that river is very shallow, it's probably be enough to operate gunboat or patrol boat (Probably corvette max) it's not going to be enough to operate heavy warship and submarine (they would have to be surface to go upstream)

Also the mouth of that river, in fact, any river is going to be a choke point in war. You probably going to end up using more asset to protect this choke point than whatever you want to transport across.

 

[FuturePAF]

The draft of that river is very shallow, it's probably be enough to operate gunboat or patrol boat (Probably corvette max) it's not going to be enough to operate heavy warship and submarine (they would have to be surface to go upstream)

Also the mouth of that river, in fact, any river is going to be a choke point in war. You probably going to end up using more asset to protect this choke point than whatever you want to transport across.

They could dredge the river to a deep enough depth, “help” the North Koreans and Russians by gifting them a tall bridge for road and rail traffic, but sure the subs would have to go to sea on the surface with some protection in the area for a 100 kms or so beyond the shore.

It’s not an ideal location, but it would allow them to spread units to a new vector and have a port subs or surface ships could return to. Also subs could be housed into the side of that mountain a little ways up that river.

For the Chinese though, that port could help just start their northeast, “rust belt” provinces, and have a port that would make that region competitive with other regions of China. With a lot of sea traffic, subs could try to hide in the traffic, and try to go north, crossing into the wider pacific north of Sakhalin, the way the Soviets probably did in the cold war.

 

[j_hungary]

They could dredge the river to a deep enough depth, “help” the North Koreans and Russians by gifting them a tall bridge for road and rail traffic, but sure the subs would have to go to sea on the surface with some protection in the area for a 100 kms or so beyond the shore.

It’s not an ideal location, but it would allow them to spread units to a new vector and have a port subs or surface ships could return to. Also subs could be housed into the side of that mountain a little ways up that river.

For the Chinese though, that port could help just start their northeast, “rust belt” provinces, and have a port that would make that region competitive with other regions of China. With a lot of sea traffic, subs could try to hide in the traffic, and try to go north, crossing into the wider pacific north of Sakhalin, the way the Soviet’s did in the cold war.

If sub have to travel on surface, then it would have been pointless, surfaced sub in a narrow girth is a very dangerous proposition, and dredging the river would cost a lot, then who are going to pay for it? The only one that can is China, but China owns nothing there, will they just pay to dredge the canal?

On the other hand, as I said before the river is going to be presented as one giant choke point, this will be counterproductive to use it for any strategic movement. Russia did that in cold war because we don't really have satellite coverage and it wasn't that advance, now you may as well just put up a sign and say "Shoot me here" in case of a war.......

 

[FuturePAF]

If sub have to travel on surface, then it would have been pointless, surfaced sub in a narrow girth is a very dangerous proposition, and dredging the river would cost a lot, then who are going to pay for it? The only one that can is China, but China owns nothing there, will they just pay to dredge the canal?

On the other hand, as I said before the river is going to be presented as one giant choke point, this will be counterproductive to use it for any strategic movement. Russia did that in cold war because we don't really have satellite coverage and it wasn't that advance, now you may as well just put up a sign and say "Shoot me here" in case of a war.......

China may indeed have to pay to dredge it to make it useful to send subs underwater; probably at least down to 20 meters. A lot of expense, but they could do it on the back of making a deep water port, and amortize the costs in the operations of that port.

They may also have to also keep a small ASW force beyond the river channel and in international waters to create a small bastion the subs could make a break from.

I’m sure there will be a Virginia class boat waiting no further then the Japanese west coast for a Chinese SSNs to come out, but that will be the cat and mouse game China might have to play.

It might be a sideshow but it will eat up USN and JSDF sub resources. When the US SSNs force is around 60 subs with 60% availability per recent congressional testimony, spreading 36 SSN, of which 60% are ear marked to China, means up to 22 US SSN in the region. a couple playing tag in the Sea of Japan, near the Russian Sosus nets, means less on the Chinese coast proper.

 

[ety]

Things might be changing on the Tumen.

Well, Indians. Contrary to Indian and American logic and wishes, I think Chinese are rather happy that Russia and NK now form some kind military alliance besides the China-NK alliance already existed to deter US military threat in Northeast Asia. Of course, its common sense that the international situation is more conducive for Russia and North Korea to cooperate with China on Tumen river now. But, North Korea and Russia esp the Far Eastern part are still little paranoid about China.

 

[j_hungary]

China may indeed have to pay to dredge it to make it useful to send subs underwater; probably at least down to 20 meters. A lot of expense, but they could do it on the back of making a deep water port, and amortize the costs in the operations of that port.

They may also have to also keep a small ASW force beyond the river channel and in international waters to create a small bastion the subs could make a break from.

I’m sure there will be a Virginia class boat waiting no further then the Japanese west coast for a Chinese SSNs to come out, but that will be the cat and mouse game China might have to play.

It might be a sideshow but it will eat up USN and JSDF sub resources. When the US SSNs force is around 60 subs with 60% availability per recent congressional testimony, spreading 36 SSN, of which 60% are ear marked to China, means up to 22 US SSN in the region. a couple playing tag in the Sea of Japan, near the Russian Sosus nets, means less on the Chinese coast proper.

Again, it would be depends on the usage.

As I said because you need to keep the mouth of the river defended 24/7 in war, so you are going to need to station permeant force to guard the mouth, or even with just one ship sunk (don't need to be a military ship) you are going to block the entire river.

Which mean depending on the traffic and the usage, it may cost way too much to dredge the riverbed and make the river wider and deeper and position troop/ship/air asset to guard the river 24/7

 

[FuturePAF]

Again, it would be depends on the usage.

As I said because you need to keep the mouth of the river defended 24/7 in war, so you are going to need to station permeant force to guard the mouth, or even with just one ship sunk (don't need to be a military ship) you are going to block the entire river.

Which mean depending on the traffic and the usage, it may cost way too much to dredge the riverbed and make the river wider and deeper and position troop/ship/air asset to guard the river 24/7

True, most likely it will be a commercial port with a small surface warship port. The Chinese probably don’t want to dredge a river they don’t control fully.

 

[Pingle]

What a foolish claim that China is landlocked as Nepal and Mongolia with sea, lol, better to say your India is landlocked because India is nobody and it has no shipping industry and only mini navy when compardd to China. Indians logic at their best, lol.

Firstly understand below things....

1) India has lot more allies in the world compared to China so India getting blockaded possibility is next to NIL.... Only reliable allies China has are Russia, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.... Russia already bogged down in Ukraine and may not be much useful for rescuing China...

2) Except USN no navy on this planet can completely blockade India even if as per you we have mini and weak navy..... Just look at the massive size of India and now think how many warships and submarines will require to completely blockade India to the point of totally halting her shipping movements...

3) Unlike single coastline country China, India is 3 coastlines country with 500 plus islands and large open water bodies around..... We are not chocked at the coast because of large island chains under the enemy and its allies control and that gives us freedom of movements....

Look at our geographical location we stay close to Middle East and our supply lines are not dependent on the mercy of other nations if ever war like situation arises with them....

This is not the case with China.... Firstly if ever war like situation arises USN and allies will make life miserable for your cargos passing 3 island chains forget beyond that you have Indonesia and India near Malacca if ever there is any tensions with these two you will have further challenge from these powers.....

Your location, Only single coastline and 1000s of island chains under enemy control in the far east has isolated you from the oil reach middle east and overall your trade can be chocked totally in case of war and hence we see how China is desperate to connect ME via road and spending billions.... But road cargo can never match the capacity the ocean cargo delivers....

Hence China is technically a landlocked Mongolia or Nepal with sea and single coast....

I think this much geography lesson is enough for you today....

 

[ety]

Firstly understand below things....

1) India has lot more allies in the world compared to China so India getting blockaded possibility is next to NIL.... Only reliable allies China has are Russia, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.... Russia already bogged down in Ukraine and may not be much useful for rescuing China...

2) Except USN no navy on this planet can completely blockade India even if as per you we have mini and weak navy..... Just look at the massive size of India and now think how many warships and submarines will require to completely blockade India to the point of totally halting her shipping movements...

3) Unlike single coastline country China, India is 3 coastlines country with 500 plus islands and large open water bodies around..... We are not chocked at the coast because of large island chains under the enemy and its allies control and that gives us freedom of movements....

Look at our geographical location we stay close to Middle East and our supply lines are not dependent on the mercy of other nations if ever war like situation arises with them....

This is not the case with China.... Firstly if ever war like situation arises USN and allies will make life miserable for your cargos passing 3 island chains forget beyond that you have Indonesia and India near Malacca if ever there is any tensions with these two you will have further challenge from these powers.....

Your location, Only single coastline and 1000s of island chains under enemy control in the far east has isolated you from the oil reach middle east and overall your trade can be chocked totally in case of war and hence we see how China is desperate to connect ME via road and spending billions.... But road cargo can never match the capacity the ocean cargo delivers....

Hence China is technically a landlocked Mongolia or Nepal with sea and single coast....

I think this much geography lesson is enough for you today....

So, length of coastline of Indian mainland is only 6100 km, China's coastline covers approximately 14,500 km (around 9,010 mi) from the Bohai gulf in the north to the Gulf of Tonkin in the south. India has 500 plus islands while China has 6,961 islands. Talk of geography, just don't make a fool of yourself keep bragging.

What do you think ? You think China is just going to passively let those countries such as Japan and India choke Chinese navy and commercial ships around the small islands in the island chains and Indian ocean, you think China won't destroy those bases first that threaten Chinese ships in time of war, you think only Chinese shipping lanes are vulnerable but not those enemies' bases, lol. You Indians always talk of India should eagerly to have a sea war with China, lol, China won't limit the war to the sea lanes only, it's going to be all over Indian land, air and sea if India try to have such sea war. It's foolish for you to even compare China to Nepal and Mongolia, how delusional are you people really, China has the world second largest and possibly second strongest navy that often travels and operates in blue seas and oceans while the two tiny countries have none, lol, China also has the world largest international shipping industry. And I can argue your India is really landlocked country because it is insignificant in international sea and ocean shipping affairs.

And who are India's allies, the US or Japan, you think they are going to fight for India militarily if it goes to war with China ? Don't be kidding.

 

[Pingle]

So, length of coastline of Indian mainland is only 6100 km, China's coastline covers approximately 14,500 km (around 9,010 mi) from the Bohai gulf in the north to the Gulf of Tonkin in the south. India has 500 plus islands while China has 6,961 islands. Talk of geography, just don't make a fool of yourself keep bragging.

What do you think ? You think China is just going to passively let those countries such as Japan and India choke Chinese navy and commercial ships around the small islands in the island chains and Indian ocean, you think China won't destroy those bases first that threaten Chinese ships in time of war, you think only Chinese shipping lanes are vulnerable but not those enemies' bases, lol. You Indians always talk of India should eagerly to have a sea war with China, lol, China won't limit the war to the sea lanes only, it's going to be all over Indian land, air and sea if India try to have such sea war. It's foolish for you to even compare China to Nepal and Mongolia, how delusional are you people really, China has the world second largest and possibly second strongest navy that often travels and operates in blue seas and oceans while the two tiny countries have none, lol, China also has the world largest international shipping industry. And I can argue your India is really landlocked country because it is insignificant in international sea and ocean shipping affairs.

And who are India's allies, the US or Japan, you think they are going to fight for India militarily if it goes to war with China ? Don't be kidding.

What will your mighty PLAN do in case of blockade that is different topic of discussion.... I am showing you the geographical reality of China and that is you are a blockade prone semi landlocked nation....

This you try to understand.... Not only CPEC and BRI there is a reason you try to claim entire SCS because the reality is you are feeling suffocated with just single coast line in the most eastern corner of the world with too many barriers in the form of islands under the control of enemies.... you have longer coast line compared to India but India is absolutely a true maritime country and free from any obstacles... in your case its not....