PAF F-16 | Discussions

[AeronautIR]

What else will left after this apart from AESA radar ? To me block 52 are virtually of V standards after all these upgrades. AESA coverage can be covered through Eireye. To me, these are precursors to be officially designated as V standard and arrival of AIM 120 Ds soon. Our F16s fleet is heading towards that direction.

Not at all... to upgrade Blk 52 to 70/72 standard, this is not enough... think of this deal as an update instead of upgrade.

 

[AeronautIR]

Turkey is paying 175m/unit for their 40 Block 70s. I don't see why it would be less for us.

For Turkiye, it is a whole package including establishment of local MRO facilities for OFP and much more, not to mention their far diverse weapon arsenal than PAF.
Total price for Pakistan will be less.

 

[hnn]

the problem is you read DSCA notifications and dont realise what they're about.

DSCA is a ceiling, not a contract value. On top of that, you literally cannot make a 1:1 comparison, if you look at DSCA notifs for F-16 sales, you will see every single support equip, tech team, training etc all included. You wont see this for a J-10 or J-35 deal. Cost metrics are skewed.

The price people tend to quote for J-10's, would have been purely airframe, missiles and the engine sets. Do you think that price included all the extra infra? GSE, training, MER's, LRU's etc...of course not...

Neither you, nor i can make that comparsion, but im willing to bet a whole lot, that China with J-10s cannot outprice the scale of nearly 5000 f-16s built, particulalry on an airframe to airframe cost basis

You're correct about the DSCA, and China doesn't provide public contracts as such so it's tricky to compare the F-system with J. Nonetheless, here's what I am thinking:

Recently Greece upgraded its Block 52+ fleet to Vipers. The publicly available estimate cost per airframe was something like $12–14M but this was heavily subsidized by the US since Greece is a NATO member. This upgrade included AESA, avionics, weapons integration, etc., but didn't include SLEP.

It's pertinent to note here that Pakistan wouldn't get that kind of subsidized deal from US.

For us, open-source estimates put the MLU V-upgrade (no SLEP) at $30–40M per airframe, and with SLEP around $65–75M. For Block 52+ with SLEP it's cheaper, roughly $45–55M per airframe. However, if Pakistan is to induct new F-16Vs with full package, training, and support, the estimates are at $100M+ per airframe.

Now China doesn’t openly publish export prices, but per the open source estimates, given the specs of J-10CE, the complete package (training/support included) ranges b/w $65–75M ballpark (general estimate) - so more or less comparable to a full V-upgrade on MLUs. The caveat here is that like Greece, Pakistan can (in theory) get a subsidized contract from China. Furthermore the J-10s come with fewer political strings attached and longer service life/support (even with full V + SLEP on MLUs their service life won't be extended past 2040-45)

I don't know what PAF decides in the end but IMO it makes financial and operational sense for Pakistan to phase out the old MLUs over the next 10–15 years, induct new J-10s and J-35 (a NFGA squadron at least is the need of the hour), and upgrade the Block 52+ to full V-standard. Perhaps even induct a squadron of new F-16Vs if need be and funds are available - but upgrading the whole fleet of F-16s to full V Standard or alternatively inducting 50+ F-16V is financially and perhaps even politically (owing to US approval) a bit overstretch. We can't be sure about US diplomatic alignment post Trump, and definitely don't want to end up with delays as experienced by India.

 

[AeronautIR]

I am going to very blunt here -
There is no need to convince someone who is already convinced.

More so, there is no need to point out what may or may not be understood by your enemy.

Pakistan landed its first F-16 in Jan 15th 1983.
On Jan 15th 2026 it will be 43 years - it scored its first kill in March 86 - 3 years

In those 43 years , how many hundreds of PAF F-16 pilots have flown?
How many have logged hours, tactics, strategies - quirks and behaviors specific to Pakistan’s environment from Skardu to Bholari.
From flying next to K2 in inclement weather specific to Pakistan to flying off Pakistani EEZ.

From recording the behavior of all the F-16 systems, and seeing both things it could do there and how best to use it.

Every base in the PAF has someone who knows the F-16 intimately and most bases have infrastructure to accommodate it.

From the thousands of maintenance and supply and staff folks who learnt how to keep it flying both when spares were plenty and when spares were not - in many ways Pakistan was given a pioneering lifecycle optimization plan for its aircraft.

Most importantly, learning how to keep it relevant and building expertise in house when no one would talk to you about it.

Evolving how to fight with it through the ages and absorbing BVR techniques faster than they would on any other airplane.

By comparison - for proponents of the JF-17 and J-10

First JF-17 flight to formal induction is nearly 7 years- formal induction in PaF is 2010 - so semi baked 22 years experience - now at multiple bases and familiarity. First JF-17 pool - mostly from the F-16. Time to first combat from official induction was about 2 years in 2010.

First J-10 flight with PAF- 3 years and 9 months. J-10 primary crew - top F-16 and JF-17 pilots

The F-16 isn’t done yet, people who have problems with the US can’t seem to figure out that the product doesn’t always have to take emotions from the creator.

Otherwise they would probably stop using half the internet and most of social media

Spot on, not to mention the logistics infrastructure built over years that helps us in many other ways apart from maintenance of F-16 fleet.
For now, I am still not sure if we will see blk 70/72 in PAF service, but I think it is quite probable that those Vipers may fly here in coming years.

 

[Asif kamal khan]

Long time ago when discussions were hot about next Pakistan Air Force high performance aircraft, I had mentioned J10 is the only viable option and it happened so. Now what I can see is Pakistan will upgrade its Block 52 and some 40 more existing f16 with this package. Right now block 70 upgrade seems difficult as it is too costly and with that upgrade we can purchase new j10c . Pakistan will upgrade with what is offered right now . It will help f16 to defend itself in future concatrated air battles and if permitted to fire Lettest Aim 120 missiles.
2 years ago Pakistan was trying to get 2 squandered of used f16 from anywhere and I think rest of upgrade might be for those around 32-40 aircraft which PAF is still trying to acquire from either United States or any other allied nation as 31 out of 40 F16 from 1983-86 batch are really old and structural fatigue is a reality. So I’m expecting in very near future 2 squandered of second hand F16 inducement in Pakistan Air Force

 

[Princeps]

For Turkiye, it is a whole package including establishment of local MRO facilities for OFP and much more, not to mention their far diverse weapon arsenal than PAF.
Total price for Pakistan will be less.

I specifically chose Turkiye, because it's the cheapest out of the recent deals. With countries like Peru and Philippines paying 280m/unit. Turkey already has significant infrastructure and weapons for the F-16 similar to us.

Less than 100m/unit is unprecedented and seems far too optimistic.

 

[KingQamaR]

Not at all... to upgrade Blk 52 to 70/72 standard, this is not enough... think of this deal as an update instead of upgrade.

It’s impossible for a PAF entire F16 Fleet given a make up to Block 70 specs. Half billion budget is not enough. This upgrade reported by other posters on here will be equivalent to a Block 50/52. PAF currently has 18 F-16 BLOCK 52+ and 45 others got given a MLU upgraded to nearly Block 52+ spec and if we were to add it all together PAF F16 birds are number 63 at a Block 52+level.

 

[KingQamaR]

You might as well safe you money and get a squadron of far superior JC-10c

 

[hnn]

The F-16 isn’t done yet

Yes, agreed, and I don't know about others but what I'm opining is: phase out older MLUs after the current upgrade.

What I mean is to have the older F-16s replace the even older Mirage systems. So the MLUs can take up the role of rear defense formation, interceptors inside Pakistan's airspace, and for Western operations (which with the current upgrade on table makes them more formidable than the Mirages?).

So, simply, retire the Mirages and replace them with MLUs. The remaining numbers can then be balanced out with Block 52+ getting full V-upgrade (possibly even inducting a squardon or two of new F-16V) + more J-10s and JFTs Block III + one squadron at least of J-35s.

IMO, if done as above, PAF can force multiply in the next 10-15 years without creating a capability vacuum (by losing the reliability of the F-system) and financially/diplomatically burdening itself.

 

[Khanivore]

that is still 5 to 8 years away easy

Unfortunately, yes. The waiting is the annoying part.

 

[Corax]

The US used to have the " fighter mafia", but the PAF has the Viper mafia there comes a time when we need to let go guys. I get all the arguments about leveraging all the know how, expertise, and infrastructure we've invested in the platform, and we should make the most out of what's left in the airframe, but I don't think new airframes are worth it. Clearly the PAF likes squeeze every ounce of utility from its platforms, given the fact that we're still using Mirages, and I think we only stopped using the F86 sabre in the early 80s!! When it should have belonged in the museum!! I don't think the early Block JF17s are going anywhere soon, they may grow though an MLU type life extension, given that fact we've kept the Mirages flying for so long. If not, more new airframes are likely. I think the backbone of the PAF will comprise more advanced JF17s and J10s.

It's noteworthy that the Vipers didn't appear prominently in the May conflict, playing a backup role it seems, why is that? The US pressure after Feb 2019 not to use them against India? Maybe. Or maybe the PAF realised it needed a longer range BVR platform/missile combo than the Viper/amraam? Or maybe it wasn't satisfied with the lack of integration of Link16 with it's own TDL? There's a number of compromises when it comes to using the Viper. Why should we invest further in a platform that has so many strings attached and that is outgunned and outranged by the J10/PL15 combo, as well as being tightly integrated into our own TDL?

 

[Ali_Baba]

Long time ago when discussions were hot about next Pakistan Air Force high performance aircraft, I had mentioned J10 is the only viable option and it happened so. Now what I can see is Pakistan will upgrade its Block 52 and some 40 more existing f16 with this package. Right now block 70 upgrade seems difficult as it is too costly and with that upgrade we can purchase new j10c . Pakistan will upgrade with what is offered right now . It will help f16 to defend itself in future concatrated air battles and if permitted to fire Lettest Aim 120 missiles.
2 years ago Pakistan was trying to get 2 squandered of used f16 from anywhere and I think rest of upgrade might be for those around 32-40 aircraft which PAF is still trying to acquire from either United States or any other allied nation as 31 out of 40 F16 from 1983-86 batch are really old and structural fatigue is a reality. So I’m expecting in very near future 2 squandered of second hand F16 inducement in Pakistan Air Force

2nd hand F16s that are cheap to procure and quick to deliver could make sense, but I still maintain that there is no way that the PAF is going to drop tens of billions of dollars on new build greenfield F16s at the "feet and whims" of congress over a period of a decade that it will take to deliver.

No change/reset in the relationship is going to be enough for that level of risk to be taken given that Pakistan has undergone multiple "resets" in it relationship with Washingtons, only for sanctions, restrictions and conditions to be added later and for pressure to applied "once some leverage" has been put in place that is effective. e.g. we will put your paid for F16s into storage if you don't sign on to the Abraham accords.

Pakistan has the ability to get its AH-1Z Vipers delivered if it pays for them in cash, but Pakistan has chosen to not do that and this seems be lost on the wiseguys of the F16 mafia here.



So, every time some says that Pakistan could buy new build F16s, take a look at the above picture to remind you of why Pakistan won't take that risk again.

Right now, the Iraqis are having problems trying to maintain their F16s, getting these 34 F16s for 50(or appropriate exchange ratio) JF17Cs on barter swap could make some sense where PAF can help Iraq maintain the JF17Cs and where they have experience with the engine of the JF17C already. The cashflows can be managed, and the delivery window can be managed to reduce risk. This is a possible logical permutation "if" Iraq wants to go down that road.

Take alook at this article : https://jummar.media/en/9209

These F16s can then be upgraded to whatever standard PAF wants, and they have alot of life left in them given how Iraq has not really used them. Out of all the "2nd" hand options out there, a barter swap for the Iraqi's ones are the "best value" for both parties involved. Nigeria has been able to maintain the JF17, as has Myanmar so it is possible for the Iraqi airforce to do the same.

So, there exists opportunities for out of the box thinking to procure 2nd hand F16s that can negate the risk of new build F16 procurement for sure. PAF will have the problem of cash flows to manage as the Americans will want any loans they provide, to be done on new builds and that is for Pakistan to solve for its alternative options.

 

[Yasser76]

The US used to have the " fighter mafia", but the PAF has the Viper mafia there comes a time when we need to let go guys. I get all the arguments about leveraging all the know how, expertise, and infrastructure we've invested in the platform, and we should make the most out of what's left in the airframe, but I don't think new airframes are worth it. Clearly the PAF likes squeeze every ounce of utility from its platforms, given the fact that we're still using Mirages, and I think we only stopped using the F86 sabre in the early 80s!! When it should have belonged in the museum!! I don't think the early Block JF17s are going anywhere soon, they may grow though an MLU type life extension, given that fact we've kept the Mirages flying for so long. If not, more new airframes are likely. I think the backbone of the PAF will comprise more advanced JF17s and J10s.

It's noteworthy that the Vipers didn't appear prominently in the May conflict, playing a backup role it seems, why is that? The US pressure after Feb 2019 not to use them against India? Maybe. Or maybe the PAF realised it needed a longer range BVR platform/missile combo than the Viper/amraam? Or maybe it wasn't satisfied with the lack of integration of Link16 with it's own TDL? There's a number of compromises when it comes to using the Viper. Why should we invest further in a platform that has so many strings attached and that is outgunned and outranged by the J10/PL15 combo, as well as being tightly integrated into our own TDL?

Yeah, the general opinions on the forum is J-10 and J-35 are the future, no need to further invest billions, but worth maybe some more used airframes if we can get at low cost and maybe the V upgrades, again if cost if good. I think those are the very minimum requirements if we want to keep F-16s as our second line like the Mirages were. I think we will see them in PAF colours for at least another 20 years. Anything without an AESA and 200km BVR missile flying post 2030 is pretty much dead meat in the sky.

 

[bravo_1]

#f_sola_mafia

 

[Ak01]

Pakistan has the ability to get its AH-1Z Vipers delivered if it pays for them in cash, but Pakistan has chosen to not do that and this seems be lost on the wiseguys of the F16 mafia here.

once again, this is your misunderstanding of the situation.

Cash, i.e no fmf, no us taxpayer subsidy.

tax does not mean cold hard cash...loans are available...