Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
There is nothing stopping China from doing the same with CUSEF...
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There is nothing stopping China from doing the same with CUSEF...
Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
@GoMig-21
First of 3 men charged in 2018 prison killing of James ‘Whitey’ Bulger set to enter guilty plea and be sentenced today
Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
CRAZY!
grocery haul
Nilgiri
INT'L MOD
I read your comment with interest but can't reconcile everything you wrote with observations.
For example, regarding sovereign debt, these are some ratings:
United States
AA+Stable 
South Korea
AAStable
China
A+Stable
Japan
A+Stable
India
BBB-Positive 
PRC seems comparable to Japan and only slightly worse than South Korea (and significantly better than India).
Govt (state/public) solvency is just one part of the total debt of the nationstate. The nation has households/individuals and corporations.
W.r.t PRC, corporate debt is approaching 150% of GDP, and there is a large component of NBFC (shadow finance, outside banking) not found to same degree in developed countries that will be a minefield if exposed more by whatever trajectory/pressure that continues to develop in PRC now.
Especially given market cap % of GDP (i.e a more diverse equity spread) is as low as it is now in PRC after the 6 Trillion wiped out there in a few short years.
Then a lot of the household debt (60% of GDP) is leveraged on real estate (rather than say stocks, pensions, funds etc), a sector showing major signs of ponzi bubble bursting already (pushing significant deflation and all) for number of reasons A problem given real estate relative non-liquidity and that too the particular (oversupply) conditions found in PRC at same time that are strange problem with strange particular genesis in PRC.
A summary:
On the Road to Chinese Deflation
A stumbling Chinese economy can be a major drag on world aggregate demand.
www.aei.org
The more the gross debt level is and the more stressed it is, the less room for the govt to take on more debt itself whatever its credit rating (in fact expansion in these conditions rather than relative status quo will affect its rating).
There is only so much qualitative + liquid total wealth in end during a snapshot and relative short and mid term trajectory on offer.
Other countries are different and have different problems, those are different subjects.
South Korea for example has far larger wealth/capita (and this is not leveraged at say 300% debt level like PRC already has right now at its lower wealth setting).....and India doesn't have a TFR <1.0 problem to have to manage in its fiscal/total debt/wealth space like PRC does.
The issue that is often overlooked in the end by folks like @GoMig-21 is the heavyset absolutist statism creating a problem (with objective of some problem at hand it prioritizes for whatever reason, malthusian, centralist marxist or otherwise) and then trying to respond to it with same heavy set statist lever....which ends up being superficial to the long term blackpilling of the larger dissonance this grows with society (and the way to reconcile trust and authority with far greater resolution between state and society to begin with)....as there are simply few to no intermediary and hedged relevant institutions outside of the statist complex/psyche to handle these matters.
The CCP has been deadset against the greater political resolution approach (given what this means for the CCP, especially with backlog of accountability on significant statist crimes on society), and the costs mount.
A look at just one aspect of this:
@j_hungary
Developereo
Elite Member
This thread has been polluted by some people's Sinophobia.
You guys are truly beyond help, including some mods ... and will throw a mighty tantrum if Chinese posters respond.
You guys are truly beyond help, including some mods ... and will throw a mighty tantrum if Chinese posters respond.
GoMig-21
Elite Member
I know, right! Dang these guys, man. loool
I'm too busy right now to worry about China even if you paid me! Celtics are 1 quarter away from the championship and up by 21 starting the 4th.
I got 12 guys here we're barbequing and watching the game and yelling and howling everyone's going nuts the lovely Missus is not too happy with me ATM lol... the neighbors came over it's like grand central station around here I got shrimps on the barby ATM, bro! I cooked lobsters earlier got my specialty halal steaks and avocado salad just served my special Gomig grilled whole garlic cloves with huge chucks of butter all you gotta do is scoop out the garlic out with a spoon and eat it straight or spread it on some sour rye I gotta season the shrimp with some Old Bay then we're getting ready to drop the American and put up the Celtics flag on the side entrance once the game is over gonna try to head out to the marina later this mooring and go bluefishing gotta give the gatekeeper $50 each X 10 dang bro is gonna make some scratch tonight but hey, life is good AHDLAH last thing I'm thinking about is China lol. But @Nilgiri I'll get you later, buster.
Ant, did you see this shot right at the end of halftime?
Nilgiri
INT'L MOD
EugeneP
Trusted Member
Govt (state/public) solvency is just one part of the total debt of the nationstate. The nation has households/individuals and corporations.
W.r.t PRC, corporate debt is approaching 150% of GDP, and there is a large component of NBFC (shadow finance, outside banking) not found to same degree in developed countries that will be a minefield if exposed more by whatever trajectory/pressure that continues to develop in PRC now.
Especially given market cap % of GDP (i.e a more diverse equity spread) is as low as it is now in PRC after the 6 Trillion wiped out there in a few short years.
Then a lot of the household debt (60% of GDP) is leveraged on real estate (rather than say stocks, pensions, funds etc), a sector showing major signs of ponzi bubble bursting already (pushing significant deflation and all) for number of reasons A problem given real estate relative non-liquidity and that too the particular (oversupply) conditions found in PRC at same time that are strange problem with strange particular genesis in PRC.
A summary:
On the Road to Chinese Deflation
A stumbling Chinese economy can be a major drag on world aggregate demand.
The more the gross debt level is and the more stressed it is, the less room for the govt to take on more debt itself whatever its credit rating (in fact expansion in these conditions rather than relative status quo will affect its rating).
There is only so much qualitative + liquid total wealth in end during a snapshot and relative short and mid term trajectory on offer.
Other countries are different and have different problems, those are different subjects.
South Korea for example has far larger wealth/capita (and this is not leveraged at say 300% debt level like PRC already has right now at its lower wealth setting).....and India doesn't have a TFR <1.0 problem to have to manage in its fiscal/total debt/wealth space like PRC does.
The issue that is often overlooked in the end by folks like @GoMig-21 is the heavyset absolutist statism creating a problem (with objective of some problem at hand it prioritizes for whatever reason, malthusian, centralist marxist or otherwise) and then trying to respond to it with same heavy set statist lever....which ends up being superficial to the long term blackpilling of the larger dissonance this grows with society (and the way to reconcile trust and authority with far greater resolution between state and society to begin with)....as there are simply few to no intermediary and hedged relevant institutions outside of the statist complex/psyche to handle these matters.
The CCP has been deadset against the greater political resolution approach (given what this means for the CCP, especially with backlog of accountability on significant statist crimes on society), and the costs mount.
A look at just one aspect of this:
@j_hungary
You have given a lot of interesting information to think about. I would prefer a pure economic analysis without political overtones. The video on tutoring was very informative, though I am sure variations of such problems exist in all countries to different extent.
But one thing we have to guard against is 'prejudice'. By 'prejudice' I mean trying to judge other cultures and government systems through our values. China is a planned economy with authoritarian government. But the fact is, people seem to like it and are even quite proud. It is not for us bemoan that they lack 'liberty' in the western liberal sense. They view it as disorder. East Asia emphasizes order over liberty. And they have done OK without western style liberty.
GoMig-21
Elite Member
OMG bro looooooooooool I showed the fellas we were rolling on the floor man lmaaoooOo!
China China China! Who's the genius who put that together.
We're celebrating tonight.
j_hungary
Professional
This isn't about state order vs liberty. There is an old Chinese proverb that said. "Care about nothing as long horse keep racing and people keep dancing". When the economy is good, people don't really care about anything, it's only start being an issue when you can't keep the horsie racing and can't keep people dancing.
The problem for the Chinese is they hedged a lot of money in real estate due to their cultural belief. And when the real estate market is good, nobody cares because it brings them money, but then real estate and basically every non-volatile asset have the same issue, it's what people called "elastic-economy" imagining trading in Real Estate market. You can only trade up, because otherwise you can't sell them, or more likely you wouldn't and unlike gold or blue-chip investment, they don't have a stable price so when the supply of real estate overwhelms the market because people keep invest in it. Then it would be like the last person who buy GameStop share after that reddit "heist".
The different of investing environment between China and the West (US specifically) are very different, in the west, that liberty give us the resilience, say if we or the government or the market had made a mistake, that liberty of investment is going to allow a buffer zone for people to move around, so it bounce back quicker. In China, the market environment is basically good when it was bull and extremely worrisome when it was red. Because you don't have the liberty to invest however you want. You basically invest in what the Chinese government want you to invest in, again, if this is a good market, there ain't no problem, but if the market performance was bad, your investment is basically there to fill a pit.
Govt (state/public) solvency is just one part of the total debt of the nationstate. The nation has households/individuals and corporations.
W.r.t PRC, corporate debt is approaching 150% of GDP, and there is a large component of NBFC (shadow finance, outside banking) not found to same degree in developed countries that will be a minefield if exposed more by whatever trajectory/pressure that continues to develop in PRC now.
Especially given market cap % of GDP (i.e a more diverse equity spread) is as low as it is now in PRC after the 6 Trillion wiped out there in a few short years.
Then a lot of the household debt (60% of GDP) is leveraged on real estate (rather than say stocks, pensions, funds etc), a sector showing major signs of ponzi bubble bursting already (pushing significant deflation and all) for number of reasons A problem given real estate relative non-liquidity and that too the particular (oversupply) conditions found in PRC at same time that are strange problem with strange particular genesis in PRC.
A summary:
On the Road to Chinese Deflation
A stumbling Chinese economy can be a major drag on world aggregate demand.
The more the gross debt level is and the more stressed it is, the less room for the govt to take on more debt itself whatever its credit rating (in fact expansion in these conditions rather than relative status quo will affect its rating).
There is only so much qualitative + liquid total wealth in end during a snapshot and relative short and mid term trajectory on offer.
Other countries are different and have different problems, those are different subjects.
South Korea for example has far larger wealth/capita (and this is not leveraged at say 300% debt level like PRC already has right now at its lower wealth setting).....and India doesn't have a TFR <1.0 problem to have to manage in its fiscal/total debt/wealth space like PRC does.
The issue that is often overlooked in the end by folks like @GoMig-21 is the heavyset absolutist statism creating a problem (with objective of some problem at hand it prioritizes for whatever reason, malthusian, centralist marxist or otherwise) and then trying to respond to it with same heavy set statist lever....which ends up being superficial to the long term blackpilling of the larger dissonance this grows with society (and the way to reconcile trust and authority with far greater resolution between state and society to begin with)....as there are simply few to no intermediary and hedged relevant institutions outside of the statist complex/psyche to handle these matters.
The CCP has been deadset against the greater political resolution approach (given what this means for the CCP, especially with backlog of accountability on significant statist crimes on society), and the costs mount.
A look at just one aspect of this:
@j_hungary
The issue for Chinese economy is that they can't get out of the cultural constraint, Chinese invest in housing, their home, because growing up in Hong Kong, that's what you were told. Problem is that is the least expansive debt there can be. Because other than the land your house/apartment/condo sitting on, that piece of investment have no actual value. As I said above, it's A-OK when the land value is high, but when the valuation is low, and you are holding a loan that overvalued, well, you're fu.ked
Another thing is the government does not act as a guarantee in this investment. The problem is, when you are talking about repayment and loan health, that's a very risky factor to have to re-mortgage your home. Which if I am a principal lender, I probably wouldn't accept real estate as a security. Because it is a home, it doesn't generate income like machinery and commercial real estate. It's like those dudes in Pawn Stars always say "It might have value to you, but I need to find a buyer".
People don't understand who US currency and fiscal policy work, the issue here is USD is not just being used by the United States as tender currency. China have around 300 billion USD in their central bank. Australia Reserve Bank is holding 40 billion, each reserve/central bank in the world hold some USD (probably except Russia now) in some respect which mean those USD (even it was just a line of credit, not printed currency) are not going to be in regular circulation. Which mean as long as the world is doing this, US is always going to be in debt, in fact, the more US develop, the more debt they are going to be issuing, because on one side, you need money to developed, and on the other, a better US economy mean the world hold more USD as securities, which mean less USD in circulation. Also worth notice that most US debt are held within the United States, we are talking about around 23 trillion of the 30.4 trillion US debt were held WITHIN the US. That in itself are basically stuck in the Federal Loop, (generate debt -> raise tax -> pay off interest -> loan more) rinse and repeat, yes, the debt goes bigger, but so did the security pool.
China on the other hand, as I mentioned before, have majority of their debt stuck in real estate market, which basically depends on the market value, they don't generate fixed/liquid. In fact, in most western world, real estate investment is not really counted as investment. It's very much different for someone to invest a home and charge rent in return, than a person invest in a company that produce income thru commercial activities......Which mean the Chinese debt would have been a lot harder to clear and if the market collapsed, that is going to send shockwave to their economy in general. That's why we see 2 out of the 5 big real estate investment company goes bust and there are pretty much nothing anyone, including the government can do about that.
Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
Last edited:
GoMig-21
Elite Member
lol we actually watched the second part of Stephen A's rant against Kyrie and the Mavs live it was hilarious and while some of the fellas were saying he was harsh on them because he picked them and they made him look stupid, I think he just tells it like it is. That's what makes him popular and earns him that half a mil a year base salary!
Ooff I'm a bit hurtin' today lool. Sucks ass getting old I tell ya. We probably shouldn't have gone fishing at 4 in the morning hahaha. These kinds of heavy party activities are for younglings now, not for us 50-somethings anymore I hate to say it. I would've been fine if I didn't have to deal with all the fishing gear & lines & bait & driving both the truck & boat and docking in the slip is probably one of the most stressful things ever! Especially when you're right next to a million $ Formula! Anyhoo, it was a blast of an evening (and morning I must say) and well worth the aggravation and physical burden.
BTW, Stephen A's other point is spot on, between Tatum and Brown, they're only 26 & 29 years old and they've already been to 3 conference championships and won a title. And with the rest of the quality players and the way Brad Stevens signs good catches like Porzingis' and especially Jrue Holliday, this has the making of a potential dynasty.
Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
My wife was determined to see me get heatstroke today while doing some backyard stuff I think she saved for weather like this.
Hamartia Antidote
Elite Member
haha
I can't tell exactly what he has...but I think it is a DDM4 7
danieldefense.com
Brits Shoot Guns for the first time in TEXAS!
I can't tell exactly what he has...but I think it is a DDM4 7
DDM4®V7®
The DDM4 V7 AR15 style firearm features M-LOK attachment technology with the Daniel Defense MFR 15.0 rail. Built around a Cold Hammer Forged, 16 inch barrel, the V7 has a DD improved Flash Suppressor to reduce flash signature. The mid-length gas system provides smooth and reliable cycling under...
danieldefense.com
Our First Ever Baseball Game! Brits go to a Baseball game in America!
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GoMig-21
Elite Member
lol. Yep, the 90's are finally here, bro. Get those electrolytes in you as much as possible and for us donkeys that work outside a lot AND are getting up there in age, need to be even more careful.
While I'm not a huge fan of air conditioning, I think it has a lot to do with being more accustomed to living in a section of the country that is cooler year-round than it is hot. If we lived in let's say Arizona for example, we'd probably be more used to needing air conditioning and be able to tolerate it better. For me, I don't know what it is but after a while, it gets into my bones. I'd much rather deal with the mugginess as long as it's not like Florida in August. Forget about that, that's torture! I'll never forget the first time we flew to Florida to take our little monster to Disney in the early 90s, got off the plane and I was bitch-slapped in the face with that heat & humidity. Got on the shuttle bus to get to the hotel first thing I said to the driver screw youz and Florida altogether we're from Boston man we ain't used to this hellish weather turn the gaddam AC on full blast!
lol look at this, bro. Give him credit at least he's honest. You can't feel anything except respect for this straight up honesty. Yeah we despise the Lakers too, Magic!
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